CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, CHDN scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. CHDN was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CHDN has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. CHDN has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CHDN was profitable.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years CHDN 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years CHDN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.72%, CHDN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.93% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 39.20%, CHDN belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.72% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.09%) than 66.17% of its industry peers.
CHDN had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.83%. This is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.83%) for CHDN is below the current ROIC(8.09%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
CHDN's Profit Margin of 15.08% is amongst the best of the industry. CHDN outperforms 90.23% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CHDN has a Operating Margin of 25.32%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 90.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
CHDN has a worse Gross Margin (34.45%) than 70.68% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CHDN is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.57, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
CHDN's Altman-Z score of 1.57 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN outperforms 49.62% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN is 16.68, which is on the high side as it means it would take CHDN, 16.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CHDN has a Debt to FCF ratio (16.68) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.49 is on the high side and indicates that CHDN has dependencies on debt financing.
CHDN's Debt to Equity ratio of 4.49 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN is outperformed by 62.41% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.57 |
ROIC/WACC0.92
WACC8.76%
2.3 Liquidity
CHDN has a Current Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.53, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 72.93% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.52, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 70.68% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CHDN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 14.71%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past 5 years, CHDN shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 6.77% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 11.75% in the last year.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.51% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
3.2 Future
CHDN is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 7.36% yearly.
CHDN is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.92% yearly.
EPS Next Y4.24%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.62%
Revenue Next 3Y4.92%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 18.09 indicates a rather expensive valuation of CHDN.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.44% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CHDN's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.30.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.09, the valuation of CHDN can be described as correct.
75.19% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CHDN, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
CHDN is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.09 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CHDN is on the same level as its industry peers.
CHDN's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CHDN is cheaper than 69.17% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.14 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.54 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CHDN does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of CHDN may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.27
PEG (5Y)2.67
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.39%, CHDN is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
CHDN's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.53.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, CHDN's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CHDN is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.32%!
CHDN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
CHDN pays out 7.31% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP7.31%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
105.8
-1 (-0.94%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.71%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners5.47%
Ins Owner Change0.57%
Market Cap7.64B
Analysts84.44
Price Target137 (29.49%)
Short Float %3.43%
Short Ratio2.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP7.31%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.39%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.06%
Max EPS beat(2)4.28%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4.63%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)3.16%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)3.44%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.4%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.48%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.7%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.96%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.06%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.71%
PT rev (1m)-3.11%
PT rev (3m)-15.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.76%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.09 | ||
| P/S | 2.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.14 | ||
| P/OCF | 10 | ||
| P/B | 7.13 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.54 |
EPS(TTM)5.85
EY5.53%
EPS(NY)7.01
Fwd EY6.63%
FCF(TTM)4.05
FCFY3.83%
OCF(TTM)10.58
OCFY10%
SpS38.57
BVpS14.84
TBVpS-30.94
PEG (NY)4.27
PEG (5Y)2.67
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROCE | 10.85% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.31% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.42% | ||
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% | ||
| FCFM | 10.5% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.25 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 223.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.95% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.35 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 69.6% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.57 |
F-Score9
WACC8.76%
ROIC/WACC0.92
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
EPS Next Y4.24%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.62%
Revenue Next 3Y4.92%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y16.77%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year65.04%
EBIT Next 3Y21.57%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y258.77%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y23.81%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%