CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - US1714841087 - Common Stock
103.73 USD
+0.87 (+0.85%)
103.73 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to CHDN. CHDN was compared to 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While CHDN belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. CHDN has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CHDN was profitable.
In the past year CHDN had a positive cash flow from operations.
CHDN had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
CHDN has a Return On Assets of 5.79%. This is in the better half of the industry: CHDN outperforms 72.39% of its industry peers.
CHDN has a Return On Equity of 40.99%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 89.55% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of CHDN (7.97%) is better than 65.67% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CHDN is significantly below the industry average of 16.25%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for CHDN is above the 3 year average (6.83%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.79% | ||
| ROE | 40.99% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
CHDN has a Profit Margin of 15.09%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 87.31% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 24.95%, CHDN belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.55% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
CHDN has a Gross Margin of 34.08%. This is in the lower half of the industry: CHDN underperforms 71.64% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.95% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.09% | ||
| GM | 34.08% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), CHDN is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for CHDN has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CHDN has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.54, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of CHDN (1.54) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
CHDN has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.66. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as CHDN would need 13.66 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CHDN's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.66 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
CHDN has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.74. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 4.74, CHDN is doing worse than 60.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.54 |
ROIC/WACC0.91
WACC8.73%
2.3 Liquidity
CHDN has a Current Ratio of 0.60. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.60, CHDN is doing worse than 69.40% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.58 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Quick ratio (0.58) than 65.67% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.58 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.39% over the past year.
CHDN shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 8.20% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.51% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.39%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%7.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.2%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%4.91%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.71% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.51% on average per year.
EPS Next Y6.83%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y10.71%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.28%
Revenue Next 2Y5.25%
Revenue Next 3Y4.51%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 17.12, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of CHDN.
CHDN's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CHDN is cheaper than 77.61% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of CHDN to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.08), we can say CHDN is valued slightly cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.49, which indicates a correct valuation of CHDN.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CHDN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CHDN is cheaper than 77.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CHDN to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.72), we can say CHDN is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.12 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.49 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CHDN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
CHDN's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CHDN is cheaper than 76.12% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of CHDN may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.51
PEG (5Y)2.53
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y10.71%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.40%, CHDN is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.10, CHDN has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, CHDN's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CHDN grows each year by 7.32%, which is quite nice.
CHDN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
CHDN pays out 7.17% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP7.17%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y10.71%
103.73
+0.87 (+0.85%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.31%
Inst Owner Change-3.03%
Ins Owners5.63%
Ins Owner Change0.39%
Market Cap7.27B
Analysts84.44
Price Target140.59 (35.53%)
Short Float %3.56%
Short Ratio3.44
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP7.17%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)1.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.83%
Max EPS beat(2)4.28%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-2.98%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4.28%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)5%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)3.32%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)3.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.3%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.94%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.46%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.94%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.46%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.97%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.05%
PT rev (1m)4.08%
PT rev (3m)-0.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.24%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-13.2%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.28%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.28%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.31%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.2%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.12 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.49 | ||
| P/S | 2.57 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.86 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.25 | ||
| P/B | 6.98 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.06 |
EPS(TTM)6.06
EY5.84%
EPS(NY)7.16
Fwd EY6.9%
FCF(TTM)5.22
FCFY5.04%
OCF(TTM)11.21
OCFY10.81%
SpS40.36
BVpS14.85
TBVpS-32.3
PEG (NY)2.51
PEG (5Y)2.53
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.79% | ||
| ROE | 40.99% | ||
| ROCE | 10.69% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.2% | ||
| ROICexgc | 16.9% | ||
| OM | 24.95% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.09% | ||
| GM | 34.08% | ||
| FCFM | 12.94% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.66 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.34 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 190.82% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 14.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.38 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.89% | ||
| Profit Quality | 85.8% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.58 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.54 |
F-Score7
WACC8.73%
ROIC/WACC0.91
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.39%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%7.27%
EPS Next Y6.83%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y10.71%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.2%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%4.91%
Revenue Next Year6.28%
Revenue Next 2Y5.25%
Revenue Next 3Y4.51%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y3.2%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year65.45%
EBIT Next 3Y22.06%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y951.86%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y40.6%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%