CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, CHDN scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. CHDN was compared to 131 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CHDN has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. CHDN is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CHDN was profitable.
In the past year CHDN had a positive cash flow from operations.
CHDN had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years CHDN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.79%, CHDN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.52% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN's Return On Equity of 40.99% is amongst the best of the industry. CHDN outperforms 89.31% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 7.97%, CHDN is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.12% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CHDN is significantly below the industry average of 15.81%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for CHDN is above the 3 year average (6.83%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.79% | ||
| ROE | 40.99% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of CHDN (15.09%) is better than 89.31% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of CHDN (24.95%) is better than 89.31% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CHDN has a Gross Margin of 34.08%. This is in the lower half of the industry: CHDN underperforms 70.99% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.95% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.09% | ||
| GM | 34.08% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), CHDN is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for CHDN has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
CHDN has an Altman-Z score of 1.53. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
CHDN has a Altman-Z score (1.53) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN is 13.66, which is on the high side as it means it would take CHDN, 13.66 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CHDN's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.66 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN outperforms 51.15% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.74 is on the high side and indicates that CHDN has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 4.74, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 61.83% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.9
WACC8.86%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.60 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.60, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 70.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
CHDN has a Quick Ratio of 0.60. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Quick ratio (0.58) than 66.41% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.58 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.39% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.77% on average over the past years.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 8.20%.
Measured over the past years, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.51% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.39%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%7.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.2%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%4.91%
3.2 Future
CHDN is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.30% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.64% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y4.45%
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.32%
Revenue Next 2Y5.35%
Revenue Next 3Y4.64%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.65, CHDN is valued correctly.
78.63% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CHDN, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.48. CHDN is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.30, CHDN is valued correctly.
CHDN's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CHDN is cheaper than 74.05% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.04, CHDN is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.3 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as CHDN.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.57% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.32 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.94 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
CHDN has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)3.74
PEG (5Y)2.46
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.38%, CHDN is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
CHDN's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.98.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, CHDN's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CHDN is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.32%!
CHDN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
CHDN pays out 7.17% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP7.17%
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
100.9
-1.27 (-1.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.71%
Inst Owner Change-0.16%
Ins Owners5.47%
Ins Owner Change0.57%
Market Cap7.08B
Analysts84.44
Price Target135.07 (33.87%)
Short Float %3.3%
Short Ratio2.86
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP7.17%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)1.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.83%
Max EPS beat(2)4.28%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-2.98%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4.28%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)5%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)3.32%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)3.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.3%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.94%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.46%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.94%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.46%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.97%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.05%
PT rev (1m)-1.4%
PT rev (3m)-9.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.36%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.22%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.19%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.9%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.3 | ||
| P/S | 2.5 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.32 | ||
| P/OCF | 9 | ||
| P/B | 6.79 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.94 |
EPS(TTM)6.06
EY6.01%
EPS(NY)7.06
Fwd EY6.99%
FCF(TTM)5.22
FCFY5.18%
OCF(TTM)11.21
OCFY11.11%
SpS40.36
BVpS14.85
TBVpS-32.3
PEG (NY)3.74
PEG (5Y)2.46
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.79% | ||
| ROE | 40.99% | ||
| ROCE | 10.69% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.2% | ||
| ROICexgc | 16.9% | ||
| OM | 24.95% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.09% | ||
| GM | 34.08% | ||
| FCFM | 12.94% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.66 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.34 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 190.82% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 14.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.38 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.89% | ||
| Profit Quality | 85.8% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.58 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
F-Score7
WACC8.86%
ROIC/WACC0.9
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.39%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%7.27%
EPS Next Y4.45%
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.2%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%4.91%
Revenue Next Year6.32%
Revenue Next 2Y5.35%
Revenue Next 3Y4.64%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y3.2%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year65.04%
EBIT Next 3Y21.57%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y951.86%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y40.6%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%