CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CAKE - Nasdaq - US1630721017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CAKE gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated CAKE against 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. There are concerns on the financial health of CAKE while its profitability can be described as average. CAKE has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CAKE was profitable.
CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
CAKE had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years CAKE always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.03%, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.89% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of CAKE (46.12%) is better than 92.59% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.68%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 57.78% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CAKE is significantly below the industry average of 13.91%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.05%) for CAKE is below the current ROIC(6.68%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.03% | ||
| ROE | 46.12% | ||
| ROIC | 6.68% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
CAKE has a Profit Margin of 4.33%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 56.30% of its industry peers.
CAKE's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
CAKE has a worse Operating Margin (5.67%) than 61.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 77.75%, CAKE belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.59% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.33% | ||
| GM | 77.75% |
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for CAKE has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CAKE has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
CAKE has an Altman-Z score of 2.55. This is not the best score and indicates that CAKE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of CAKE (2.55) is better than 67.41% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.55. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 5.55 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CAKE's Debt to FCF ratio of 5.55 is amongst the best of the industry. CAKE outperforms 80.74% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.85 is on the high side and indicates that CAKE has dependencies on debt financing.
CAKE has a Debt to Equity ratio (1.85) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.85 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.55 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC8.74%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.53 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CAKE has a Current ratio of 0.53. This is in the lower half of the industry: CAKE underperforms 74.81% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a Quick Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CAKE has a worse Quick ratio (0.43) than 77.04% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 30.00%, which is quite impressive.
CAKE shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 5.68% yearly.
CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.42%.
Measured over the past years, CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.61% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)30%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%27.4%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.04%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.10% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
CAKE is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.87% yearly.
EPS Next Y8.89%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.19%
Revenue Next 2Y5.66%
Revenue Next 3Y5.94%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.79, CAKE is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.78% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.41. CAKE is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.54, which indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 72.59% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 35.19.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CAKE's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 28.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.01 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CAKE does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
CAKE has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2
PEG (5Y)3.13
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CAKE has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.68%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.47, CAKE pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, CAKE is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CAKE grows each year by 7.51%, which is quite nice.
CAKE has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of CAKE decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
33.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CAKE. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CAKE is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP33.67%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
64.77
+0.6 (+0.94%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners112.08%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners8.08%
Ins Owner Change16.31%
Market Cap3.21B
Analysts74.07
Price Target57.69 (-10.93%)
Short Float %20.9%
Short Ratio7.09
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
DP33.67%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.64%
Min EPS beat(2)11.2%
Max EPS beat(2)12.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)11.78%
Min EPS beat(4)6.87%
Max EPS beat(4)16.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)7.68%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-7.14%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.45%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.31%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.52%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.19%
PT rev (1m)2.14%
PT rev (3m)-0.25%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.67%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.89 | ||
| P/FCF | 28.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.44 | ||
| P/B | 9.45 | ||
| P/tB | 36.78 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.01 |
EPS(TTM)3.64
EY5.62%
EPS(NY)4.17
Fwd EY6.43%
FCF(TTM)2.28
FCFY3.52%
OCF(TTM)5.66
OCFY8.74%
SpS73.04
BVpS6.85
TBVpS1.76
PEG (NY)2
PEG (5Y)3.13
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.03% | ||
| ROE | 46.12% | ||
| ROCE | 8.46% | ||
| ROIC | 6.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.08% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.95% | ||
| OM | 5.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.33% | ||
| GM | 77.75% | ||
| FCFM | 3.13% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.24%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)5.93%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.39%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y10.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y5.82%
ROICexc growth 3Y11%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.1%
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.16
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.85 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.55 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.04 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 162.91% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.63% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 20.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 91.07% | ||
| Profit Quality | 72.23% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.55 |
F-Score7
WACC8.74%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)148.68%
Cap/Depr(5y)115.39%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.45%
Profit Quality(3y)81.91%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)30%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%27.4%
EPS Next Y8.89%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.04%
Revenue Next Year5.19%
Revenue Next 2Y5.66%
Revenue Next 3Y5.94%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
EBIT growth 1Y32.53%
EBIT growth 3Y15.92%
EBIT growth 5Y8.87%
EBIT Next Year72.16%
EBIT Next 3Y26.92%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y58.35%
FCF growth 3Y-9.76%
FCF growth 5Y-5.64%
OCF growth 1Y45.03%
OCF growth 3Y8%
OCF growth 5Y4.17%