CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CAKE - Nasdaq - US1630721017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, CAKE scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. CAKE was compared to 134 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. There are concerns on the financial health of CAKE while its profitability can be described as average. CAKE is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CAKE was profitable.
In the past year CAKE had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years CAKE 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years CAKE always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
CAKE has a better Return On Assets (5.15%) than 71.11% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 35.35%, CAKE belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.67% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE's Return On Invested Capital of 6.59% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 57.78% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CAKE is significantly below the industry average of 13.90%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.05%) for CAKE is below the current ROIC(6.59%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.15% | ||
| ROE | 35.35% | ||
| ROIC | 6.59% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 4.38%, CAKE is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.30% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CAKE has declined.
With a Operating Margin value of 5.43%, CAKE is not doing good in the industry: 63.70% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
CAKE's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
CAKE has a Gross Margin of 77.50%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CAKE outperforms 93.33% of its industry peers.
CAKE's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.43% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.38% | ||
| GM | 77.5% |
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, CAKE has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, CAKE has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.45 indicates that CAKE is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of CAKE (2.45) is better than 69.63% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.23. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 4.23 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CAKE has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.23. This is in the better half of the industry: CAKE outperforms 78.52% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that CAKE has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of CAKE (1.02) is better than 64.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
ROIC/WACC0.78
WACC8.42%
2.3 Liquidity
CAKE has a Current Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CAKE has a worse Current ratio (0.47) than 76.30% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.38 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CAKE has a worse Quick ratio (0.38) than 76.30% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 30.00%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past 5 years, CAKE shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 5.68% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.13% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.61% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)30%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%27.4%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.13%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.04%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.84% on average per year.
CAKE is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.87% yearly.
EPS Next Y8.82%
EPS Next 2Y9.88%
EPS Next 3Y10.84%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.21%
Revenue Next 2Y5.63%
Revenue Next 3Y5.97%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 14.45, the valuation of CAKE can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.91, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.66, the valuation of CAKE can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.52% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CAKE's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.77.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 63.70% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.36 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
CAKE has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.64
PEG (5Y)2.54
EPS Next 2Y9.88%
EPS Next 3Y10.84%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CAKE has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.06%.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.85.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, CAKE has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CAKE grows each year by 7.51%, which is quite nice.
CAKE has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CAKE has decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
33.83% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CAKE. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CAKE is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP33.83%
EPS Next 2Y9.88%
EPS Next 3Y10.84%
52.58
+0.23 (+0.44%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners100.08%
Inst Owner Change7.57%
Ins Owners6.78%
Ins Owner Change16.3%
Market Cap2.60B
Analysts75
Price Target55.86 (6.24%)
Short Float %18.07%
Short Ratio5.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
DP33.83%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)14.09%
Min EPS beat(2)11.2%
Max EPS beat(2)16.98%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)11.96%
Min EPS beat(4)6.87%
Max EPS beat(4)16.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)6.36%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.97%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)18.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.55%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.88%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.38%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.41%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.96%
PT rev (1m)-3.42%
PT rev (3m)2.42%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.03%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.57%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.66 | ||
| P/S | 0.73 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.36 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.71 | ||
| P/B | 5.87 | ||
| P/tB | 13.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.05 |
EPS(TTM)3.64
EY6.92%
EPS(NY)4.15
Fwd EY7.9%
FCF(TTM)2.16
FCFY4.11%
OCF(TTM)5.42
OCFY10.3%
SpS72.31
BVpS8.95
TBVpS3.87
PEG (NY)1.64
PEG (5Y)2.54
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.15% | ||
| ROE | 35.35% | ||
| ROCE | 8.34% | ||
| ROIC | 6.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.84% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.7% | ||
| OM | 5.43% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.38% | ||
| GM | 77.5% | ||
| FCFM | 2.98% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.24%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)5.93%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.39%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y10.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y5.82%
ROICexc growth 3Y11%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.1%
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.18
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.53 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 159.11% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.51% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 15.08 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 90.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 68.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
F-Score8
WACC8.42%
ROIC/WACC0.78
Cap/Depr(3y)148.68%
Cap/Depr(5y)115.39%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.45%
Profit Quality(3y)81.91%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)30%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%27.4%
EPS Next Y8.82%
EPS Next 2Y9.88%
EPS Next 3Y10.84%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.13%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.04%
Revenue Next Year5.21%
Revenue Next 2Y5.63%
Revenue Next 3Y5.97%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
EBIT growth 1Y29.89%
EBIT growth 3Y15.92%
EBIT growth 5Y8.87%
EBIT Next Year72.16%
EBIT Next 3Y26.92%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y64.02%
FCF growth 3Y-9.76%
FCF growth 5Y-5.64%
OCF growth 1Y22.86%
OCF growth 3Y8%
OCF growth 5Y4.17%