APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ARI - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US03762U1051 - REIT - Currency: USD
ARI gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 67 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. While ARI is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ARI has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ARI was profitable.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ARI has a worse Return On Assets (-0.05%) than 61.19% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of ARI (-0.23%) is worse than 61.19% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 1.41%, ARI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.07% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.41%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.05% | ||
| ROE | -0.23% | ||
| ROIC | 1.41% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
The Operating Margin of ARI (17.24%) is better than 79.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
ARI's Gross Margin of 37.52% is amongst the best of the industry. ARI outperforms 82.09% of its industry peers.
ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.52% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
ARI has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.03, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of -0.03, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.19% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 225.23. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 225.23 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ARI has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (225.23) than 62.69% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.99 is on the high side and indicates that ARI has dependencies on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.99, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.15% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.99 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 225.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.2
WACC7.13%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.17 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.17, ARI is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.25% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.17 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ARI (0.17) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.17 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.17 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -20.98% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -6.89% on average over the past years.
ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -0.38%.
ARI shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.63% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.98%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-25.71%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-16.79%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ARI will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.29% on average per year.
ARI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.24% yearly.
EPS Next Y-34.08%
EPS Next 2Y-14.95%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-9.25%
Revenue Next 2Y2.24%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.73, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ARI indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ARI is cheaper than 76.12% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.24. ARI is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.25 indicates a reasonable valuation of ARI.
ARI's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.42. ARI is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.73 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.25 |
4.2 Price Multiples
86.57% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ARI, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 45.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 56.44 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-14.95%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.22%, which is a nice return.
ARI's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 10.79.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, ARI pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.22% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
ARI has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-4231.44%
EPS Next 2Y-14.95%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
NYSE:ARI (8/5/2025, 12:55:47 PM)
9.86
-0.05 (-0.5%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners67.69%
Inst Owner Change31.5%
Ins Owners0.67%
Ins Owner Change-3.6%
Market Cap1.37B
Analysts72
Price Target10.65 (8.01%)
Short Float %1.99%
Short Ratio2.31
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.22% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP-4231.44%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.93%
Min EPS beat(2)12.09%
Max EPS beat(2)39.78%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)21.27%
Min EPS beat(4)12.09%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.44%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.32%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)-1.9%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-14.63%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.49%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-12.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-9.71%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)21.38%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)32.51%
PT rev (1m)1.83%
PT rev (3m)5.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.81%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.18%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-3.52%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.73 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.25 | ||
| P/S | 1.78 | ||
| P/FCF | 45.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 56.44 |
EPS(TTM)1.13
EY11.46%
EPS(NY)0.96
Fwd EY9.76%
FCF(TTM)0.22
FCFY2.21%
OCF(TTM)1.34
OCFY13.63%
SpS5.54
BVpS13.39
TBVpS13.39
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.05% | ||
| ROE | -0.23% | ||
| ROCE | 1.78% | ||
| ROIC | 1.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.45% | ||
| OM | 17.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.52% | ||
| FCFM | 3.93% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.99 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 225.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 39.18 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1652.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.32% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.28 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 131.31% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.17 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.03 |
F-Score4
WACC7.13%
ROIC/WACC0.2
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.98%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-25.71%
EPS Next Y-34.08%
EPS Next 2Y-14.95%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-16.79%
Revenue Next Year-9.25%
Revenue Next 2Y2.24%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-27.34%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-89.38%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-43.78%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%