APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
9.83 USD
+0.04 (+0.41%)
9.81 USD
-0.02 (-0.2%)
Taking everything into account, ARI scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ARI was compared to 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ARI while its profitability can be described as average. ARI is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
ARI had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years ARI always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
ARI has a Return On Assets of -0.19%. This is in the lower half of the industry: ARI underperforms 66.18% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Return On Equity of -1.03%. This is in the lower half of the industry: ARI underperforms 66.18% of its industry peers.
ARI has a better Return On Invested Capital (1.26%) than 82.35% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.18%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.19% | ||
| ROE | -1.03% | ||
| ROIC | 1.26% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
ARI has a Operating Margin of 16.50%. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 77.94% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 36.89%, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 79.41% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 36.89% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ARI is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ARI has an Altman-Z score of -0.11. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ARI has a Altman-Z score (-0.11) which is in line with its industry peers.
ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 152.71. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 152.71 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ARI has a Debt to FCF ratio (152.71) which is in line with its industry peers.
ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.21. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.21, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.06% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 152.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.11 |
ROIC/WACC0.18
WACC7.04%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.13 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ARI has a Current ratio of 0.13. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ARI outperforms 42.65% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.13 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.13, ARI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -18.25% in the last year.
ARI shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -6.89% yearly.
ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -0.38%.
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.63% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.89%
3.2 Future
ARI is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -3.05% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-31.65%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.78, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
73.53% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ARI, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
ARI's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.83.
ARI is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.09.
ARI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 32.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.09 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.88% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 66.96 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ARI's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.05% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.21%, ARI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 13.24, ARI is paying slightly less dividend.
ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.39.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.21% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of ARI are negative and hence is the payout ratio. ARI will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
ARI's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP-879.4%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
9.83
+0.04 (+0.41%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners67.64%
Inst Owner Change-23.68%
Ins Owners0.6%
Ins Owner Change-8.82%
Market Cap1.37B
Revenue(TTM)807.62M
Net Income(TTM)-19.04M
Analysts74
Price Target10.71 (8.95%)
Short Float %2.44%
Short Ratio4.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.21% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP-879.4%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)8.37%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)12.09%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)19.02%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)14.21%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.49%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)0.01%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-14.96%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-11.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.29%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)12.33%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)27.87%
PT rev (1m)0.6%
PT rev (3m)0.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.6%
EPS NQ rev (3m)10.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.17%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.62%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.09 | ||
| P/S | 1.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.69 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.84 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 66.96 |
EPS(TTM)1.12
EY11.39%
EPS(NY)0.97
Fwd EY9.92%
FCF(TTM)0.37
FCFY3.75%
OCF(TTM)1.44
OCFY14.62%
SpS5.44
BVpS13.29
TBVpS13.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number18.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.19% | ||
| ROE | -1.03% | ||
| ROCE | 1.59% | ||
| ROIC | 1.26% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.3% | ||
| OM | 16.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 36.89% | ||
| FCFM | 6.77% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 152.71 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 44.1 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1529.33% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 19.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.27 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 148.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.11 |
F-Score4
WACC7.04%
ROIC/WACC0.18
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
EPS Next Y-31.65%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.89%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.63%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-81.03%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-39.88%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.
Can you provide the valuation status for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?
The financial health rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 3 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -879.4%.