APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
9.81 USD
-0.04 (-0.41%)
9.81 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, ARI scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ARI was compared to 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of ARI get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. ARI has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ARI has a better Return On Assets (1.29%) than 89.71% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of ARI (6.61%) is better than 88.24% of its industry peers.
ARI has a better Return On Invested Capital (1.06%) than 83.82% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.28%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 16.94%, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.06% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI has a Operating Margin of 15.93%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ARI outperforms 57.35% of its industry peers.
ARI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 36.98%, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.47% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ARI has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ARI is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ARI has an Altman-Z score of 0.03. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ARI's Altman-Z score of 0.03 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 64.71% of its industry peers.
ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 134.05. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 134.05 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 134.05, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.24% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.61. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ARI's Debt to Equity ratio of 3.61 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 63.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.15
WACC7.02%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.35 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ARI (0.35) is better than 61.76% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.35. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ARI has a Quick ratio of 0.35. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 61.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -18.25% in the last year.
ARI shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -6.89% yearly.
The Revenue for ARI has decreased by -12.52% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been growing by 10.63% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -3.59% on average over the next years.
ARI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.65% yearly.
EPS Next Y-32.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 8.76, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
ARI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.17. ARI is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.36 indicates a reasonable valuation of ARI.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ARI is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.79), we can say ARI is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.36 |
4.2 Price Multiples
77.94% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ARI, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.67 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of ARI may justify a higher PE ratio.
ARI's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.59% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.33%, ARI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 11.16, ARI has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, ARI pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.33% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
ARI pays out 124.11% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
ARI's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP124.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
9.81
-0.04 (-0.41%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.07%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change3.15%
Market Cap1.36B
Revenue(TTM)726.90M
Net Income(TTM)123.16M
Analysts74
Price Target10.76 (9.68%)
Short Float %2.33%
Short Ratio3.54
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.33% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP124.11%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.72%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)23.83%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.47%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)2.29%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)2.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-13.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.49%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-11.35%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.76%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)23.31%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.08%
EPS NQ rev (1m)17%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.36 | ||
| P/S | 1.88 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.4 | ||
| P/B | 0.73 | ||
| P/tB | 0.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.67 |
EPS(TTM)1.12
EY11.42%
EPS(NY)0.95
Fwd EY9.65%
FCF(TTM)0.4
FCFY4.12%
OCF(TTM)1.33
OCFY13.52%
SpS5.23
BVpS13.4
TBVpS13.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number18.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROCE | 1.34% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.09% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.1% | ||
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% | ||
| FCFM | 7.72% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 53.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1261.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 17.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 146.28% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
F-Score6
WACC7.02%
ROIC/WACC0.15
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
EPS Next Y-32.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-27.16%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-75.61%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-36.29%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to ARI.
What is the valuation status for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 8.76 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.73.
Is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT sustainable?
The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 124.11%.