APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
9.76 USD
-0.05 (-0.51%)
9.76 USD
0 (0%)
Overall ARI gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated ARI against 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. ARI has an average financial health and profitability rating. ARI has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ARI was profitable.
In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years ARI always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.29%, ARI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.71% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 6.61%, ARI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.24% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Return On Invested Capital of 1.06% is amongst the best of the industry. ARI outperforms 83.82% of its industry peers.
ARI had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 1.68%. This is in line with the industry average of 1.28%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
ARI has a Profit Margin of 16.94%. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 72.06% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Operating Margin (15.93%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 36.98%, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.47% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ARI has an Altman-Z score of 0.03. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.03, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.71% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ARI is 134.05, which is on the high side as it means it would take ARI, 134.05 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 134.05, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.24% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.61. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of ARI (3.61) is better than 63.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.15
WACC7.02%
2.3 Liquidity
ARI has a Current Ratio of 0.35. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ARI (0.35) is better than 61.76% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.35 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ARI (0.35) is better than 61.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -18.25% in the last year.
ARI shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -6.89% yearly.
The Revenue for ARI has decreased by -12.52% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.63% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -3.59% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-32.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 8.71 indicates a reasonable valuation of ARI.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.92, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.31, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as ARI.
ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.57, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.71 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.31 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.94% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ARI is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.16 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.57 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ARI has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
ARI's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.59% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.33%, ARI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 11.16, ARI has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.33% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
124.11% of the earnings are spent on dividend by ARI. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of ARI has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP124.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
9.76
-0.05 (-0.51%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.07%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change3.15%
Market Cap1.36B
Revenue(TTM)726.90M
Net Income(TTM)123.16M
Analysts74
Price Target10.76 (10.25%)
Short Float %2.33%
Short Ratio3.54
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.33% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP124.11%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.72%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)23.83%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.47%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)2.29%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)2.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-13.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.49%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-11.35%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.76%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)23.31%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.08%
EPS NQ rev (1m)17%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.71 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.31 | ||
| P/S | 1.87 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.16 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.36 | ||
| P/B | 0.73 | ||
| P/tB | 0.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.57 |
EPS(TTM)1.12
EY11.48%
EPS(NY)0.95
Fwd EY9.7%
FCF(TTM)0.4
FCFY4.14%
OCF(TTM)1.33
OCFY13.58%
SpS5.23
BVpS13.4
TBVpS13.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number18.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROCE | 1.34% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.09% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.1% | ||
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% | ||
| FCFM | 7.72% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 53.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1261.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 17.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 146.28% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
F-Score6
WACC7.02%
ROIC/WACC0.15
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
EPS Next Y-32.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-27.16%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-75.61%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-36.29%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to ARI.
What is the valuation status for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 8.71 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.73.
Is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT sustainable?
The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 124.11%.