AMERISAFE INC (AMSF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:AMSF - Nasdaq - US03071H1005 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AMSF. AMSF was compared to 145 industry peers in the Insurance industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of AMSF get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. AMSF has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AMSF was profitable.
In the past year AMSF had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AMSF has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AMSF had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AMSF's Return On Assets of 4.10% is amongst the best of the industry. AMSF outperforms 83.45% of its industry peers.
AMSF's Return On Equity of 18.20% is amongst the best of the industry. AMSF outperforms 86.21% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AMSF (4.17%) is better than 78.62% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AMSF is in line with the industry average of 4.07%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 18.2% | ||
| ROIC | 4.17% |
ROA(3y)4.74%
ROA(5y)4.96%
ROE(3y)20.1%
ROE(5y)19.3%
ROIC(3y)4.78%
ROIC(5y)4.81%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 15.84%, AMSF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.14% of the companies in the same industry.
AMSF's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 19.34%, AMSF is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 79.31% of the companies in the same industry.
AMSF's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 19.34% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-3.47%
OM growth 5Y-8.09%
PM growth 3Y-5.13%
PM growth 5Y-6.1%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AMSF is destroying value.
AMSF has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AMSF has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AMSF has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
There is no outstanding debt for AMSF. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.46
WACC9.07%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AMSF have decreased strongly by -12.27% in the last year.
AMSF shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -11.34% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -1.50% in the past year.
AMSF shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -3.91% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.27%
EPS 3Y-3.68%
EPS 5Y-11.34%
EPS Q2Q%-13.04%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.45%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.91%
Sales Q2Q%-9.81%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AMSF will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -5.63% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AMSF will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.91% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-7.94%
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-1.6%
Revenue Next 2Y1.91%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 18.44 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AMSF.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AMSF indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMSF is more expensive than 63.45% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.52, AMSF is valued a bit cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.97, AMSF is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AMSF is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 70.34% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 35.58. AMSF is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.97 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AMSF.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AMSF indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMSF is more expensive than 76.55% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 57.71 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.52 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AMSF has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AMSF's earnings are expected to decrease with -5.63% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.61%, AMSF has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.76, AMSF pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
AMSF's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.35.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AMSF decreases each year by -0.15%.
AMSF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.15%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
180.75% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AMSF. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AMSF's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP180.75%
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
44.82
+0.66 (+1.49%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.2%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.28%
Ins Owner Change6.14%
Market Cap853.82M
Analysts76
Price Target57.46 (28.2%)
Short Float %0.82%
Short Ratio1.27
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.61% |
Yearly Dividend4.47
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.15%
DP180.75%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.68%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.53%
Max EPS beat(2)4.89%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-2.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.06%
Max EPS beat(4)4.89%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-3.21%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.94%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-1.34%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.75%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.3%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.3%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.43%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.88%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.44%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.91%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-2.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.45%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.62%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.88%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.97 | ||
| P/S | 2.85 | ||
| P/FCF | 57.71 | ||
| P/OCF | 57.33 | ||
| P/B | 3.27 | ||
| P/tB | 3.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.52 |
EPS(TTM)2.43
EY5.42%
EPS(NY)2.24
Fwd EY5.01%
FCF(TTM)0.78
FCFY1.73%
OCF(TTM)0.78
OCFY1.74%
SpS15.73
BVpS13.69
TBVpS13.69
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 18.2% | ||
| ROCE | 5.19% | ||
| ROIC | 4.17% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.34% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.93% | ||
| OM | 19.34% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 4.94% |
ROA(3y)4.74%
ROA(5y)4.96%
ROE(3y)20.1%
ROE(5y)19.3%
ROIC(3y)4.78%
ROIC(5y)4.81%
ROICexc(3y)4.99%
ROICexc(5y)5.03%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)5.69%
ROCE(3y)5.96%
ROCE(5y)5.99%
ROICexcg growth 3Y2.96%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-5.98%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.79%
OM growth 3Y-3.47%
OM growth 5Y-8.09%
PM growth 3Y-5.13%
PM growth 5Y-6.1%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 9.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.03% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 25.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 31.18% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score4
WACC9.07%
ROIC/WACC0.46
Cap/Depr(3y)92.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.43%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.38%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.37%
Profit Quality(3y)45.41%
Profit Quality(5y)52.83%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.27%
EPS 3Y-3.68%
EPS 5Y-11.34%
EPS Q2Q%-13.04%
EPS Next Y-7.94%
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.45%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.91%
Sales Q2Q%-9.81%
Revenue Next Year-1.6%
Revenue Next 2Y1.91%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-19.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.9%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.68%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-54.89%
FCF growth 3Y-13.99%
FCF growth 5Y-21.39%
OCF growth 1Y-56.96%
OCF growth 3Y-13.98%
OCF growth 5Y-21.04%