AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC(NYSE:AMBC) stock Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Rating

We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to AMBC. AMBC was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AMBC has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AMBC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.

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1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AMBC was profitable.

AMBC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.

In multiple years AMBC reported negative net income over the last 5 years.

The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBC reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -6.24%, AMBC is doing worse than 92.31% of the companies in the same industry.

AMBC has a worse Return On Equity (-58.73%) than 93.01% of its industry peers.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	-6.24%
ROE	-58.73%
ROIC	N/A

ROA(3y)0.15%

ROA(5y)-0.62%

ROE(3y)-5.38%

ROE(5y)-11.87%

ROIC(3y)N/A

ROIC(5y)N/A

1.3 Margins

AMBC does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin and Gross Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
OM	N/A
PM (TTM)	N/A
GM	N/A

OM growth 3YN/A

OM growth 5YN/A

PM growth 3YN/A

PM growth 5YN/A

GM growth 3YN/A

GM growth 5YN/A

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ROA

ROE

ROIC

Operating and Profit Margin

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2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

AMBC does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.

Compared to 1 year ago, AMBC has more shares outstanding

The number of shares outstanding for AMBC has been increased compared to 5 years ago.

AMBC has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.17, we must say that AMBC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.

The Altman-Z score of AMBC (0.17) is better than 69.93% of its industry peers.

The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBC is 196.85, which is on the high side as it means it would take AMBC, 196.85 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.

With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 196.85, AMBC is not doing good in the industry: 79.72% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.

A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates that AMBC is not too dependend on debt financing.

The Debt to Equity ratio of AMBC (0.18) is better than 72.03% of its industry peers.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.18
Debt/FCF	196.85
Altman-Z	0.17

ROIC/WACCN/A

WACC3.12%

2.3 Liquidity

AMBC has a Current Ratio of 0.25. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.

AMBC has a Current ratio of 0.25. This is in the better half of the industry: AMBC outperforms 70.63% of its industry peers.

AMBC has a Quick Ratio of 0.25. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.

The Quick ratio of AMBC (0.25) is better than 70.63% of its industry peers.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Current Ratio	0.25
Quick Ratio	0.25

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WACC

Debt/Equity

How to determine the health of a company

Altman-Z score

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3. Growth

3.1 Past

AMBC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -79.90%.

The earnings per share for AMBC have been decreasing by -21.40% on average. This is quite bad

The Revenue has grown by 45.47% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!

AMBC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -14.86% yearly.

EPS 1Y (TTM)-79.9%

EPS 3Y-13.99%

EPS 5Y-21.4%

EPS Q2Q%-137.5%

Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.47%

Revenue growth 3Y-4.34%

Revenue growth 5Y-14.86%

Sales Q2Q%-14.18%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -14.64% on average over the next years. This is quite bad

The Revenue is expected to decrease by -43.27% on average over the next years. This is quite bad

EPS Next Y-95.14%

EPS Next 2Y-14.64%

EPS Next 3YN/A

EPS Next 5YN/A

Revenue Next YearN/A

Revenue Next 2Y-43.27%

Revenue Next 3YN/A

Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.

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4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

AMBC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 19.48.

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBC indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMBC is more expensive than 65.73% of the companies listed in the same industry.

Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.18, AMBC is valued a bit cheaper.

A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 400.98 indicates a quite expensive valuation of AMBC.

AMBC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather expensive when compared to the industry. AMBC is more expensive than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.

The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 20.81. AMBC is valued rather expensively when compared to this.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	19.48
Fwd PE	400.98

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AMBC indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMBC is more expensive than 79.02% of the companies listed in the same industry.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
P/FCF	548.44
EV/EBITDA	N/A

4.3 Compensation for Growth

AMBC's earnings are expected to decrease with -14.64% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.

PEG (NY)N/A

PEG (5Y)N/A

EPS Next 2Y-14.64%

EPS Next 3YN/A

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5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for AMBC!.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	N/A

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AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC

NYSE:AMBC (5/2/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 8.18 0 (0%)

8.18

+0.18 (+2.25%)

Chartmill FA Rating

GICS SectorFinancials

GICS IndustryGroupInsurance

GICS IndustryInsurance

Earnings (Last)02-26 2025-02-26/amc

Earnings (Next)05-12 2025-05-12/amc

Inst Owners87.7%

Inst Owner Change-9.15%

Ins Owners3.83%

Ins Owner Change2.53%

Market Cap417.92M

Analysts85

Price Target17.34 (111.98%)

Short Float %7.84%

Short Ratio2.74

Dividend

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	N/A

Yearly DividendN/A

Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A

DPN/A

Div Incr Years0

Div Non Decr Years0

Ex-DateN/A

Surprises & Revisions

EPS beat(2)N/A

Avg EPS beat(2)N/A

Min EPS beat(2)N/A

Max EPS beat(2)N/A

EPS beat(4)N/A

Avg EPS beat(4)N/A

Min EPS beat(4)N/A

Max EPS beat(4)N/A

EPS beat(8)N/A

Avg EPS beat(8)N/A

EPS beat(12)N/A

Avg EPS beat(12)N/A

EPS beat(16)N/A

Avg EPS beat(16)N/A

Revenue beat(2)1

Avg Revenue beat(2)15.43%

Min Revenue beat(2)-16.44%

Max Revenue beat(2)47.29%

Revenue beat(4)3

Avg Revenue beat(4)26.29%

Min Revenue beat(4)-16.44%

Max Revenue beat(4)47.29%

Revenue beat(8)5

Avg Revenue beat(8)11.85%

Revenue beat(12)7

Avg Revenue beat(12)32.95%

Revenue beat(16)9

Avg Revenue beat(16)30.47%

PT rev (1m)0%

PT rev (3m)0%

EPS NQ rev (1m)0%

EPS NQ rev (3m)0%

EPS NY rev (1m)0%

EPS NY rev (3m)0%

Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%

Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A

Revenue NY rev (1m)N/A

Revenue NY rev (3m)N/A

Valuation

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	19.48
Fwd PE	400.98
P/S	1.1
P/FCF	548.44
P/OCF	548.44
P/B	0.49
P/tB	4.45
EV/EBITDA	N/A

EPS(TTM)0.42

EY5.13%

EPS(NY)0.02

Fwd EY0.25%

FCF(TTM)0.01

FCFY0.18%

OCF(TTM)0.01

OCFY0.18%

SpS7.4

BVpS16.77

TBVpS1.84

PEG (NY)N/A

PEG (5Y)N/A

Profitability

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	-6.24%
ROE	-58.73%
ROCE	N/A
ROIC	N/A
ROICexc	N/A
ROICexgc	N/A
OM	N/A
PM (TTM)	N/A
GM	N/A
FCFM	0.2%

ROA(3y)0.15%

ROA(5y)-0.62%

ROE(3y)-5.38%

ROE(5y)-11.87%

ROIC(3y)N/A

ROIC(5y)N/A

ROICexc(3y)N/A

ROICexc(5y)N/A

ROICexgc(3y)N/A

ROICexgc(5y)N/A

ROCE(3y)N/A

ROCE(5y)N/A

ROICexcg growth 3YN/A

ROICexcg growth 5YN/A

ROICexc growth 3YN/A

ROICexc growth 5YN/A

OM growth 3YN/A

OM growth 5YN/A

PM growth 3YN/A

PM growth 5YN/A

GM growth 3YN/A

GM growth 5YN/A

F-Score4

Asset Turnover0.05

Health

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.18
Debt/FCF	196.85
Debt/EBITDA	N/A
Cap/Depr	N/A
Cap/Sales	N/A
Interest Coverage	N/A
Cash Conversion	N/A
Profit Quality	N/A
Current Ratio	0.25
Quick Ratio	0.25
Altman-Z	0.17

F-Score4

WACC3.12%

ROIC/WACCN/A

Cap/Depr(3y)N/A

Cap/Depr(5y)N/A

Cap/Sales(3y)N/A

Cap/Sales(5y)N/A

Profit Quality(3y)N/A

Profit Quality(5y)N/A

High Growth Momentum

Growth

EPS 1Y (TTM)-79.9%

EPS 3Y-13.99%

EPS 5Y-21.4%

EPS Q2Q%-137.5%

EPS Next Y-95.14%

EPS Next 2Y-14.64%

EPS Next 3YN/A

EPS Next 5YN/A

Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.47%

Revenue growth 3Y-4.34%

Revenue growth 5Y-14.86%

Sales Q2Q%-14.18%

Revenue Next YearN/A

Revenue Next 2Y-43.27%

Revenue Next 3YN/A

Revenue Next 5YN/A

EBIT growth 1Y-134.65%

EBIT growth 3YN/A

EBIT growth 5YN/A

EBIT Next Year85.51%

EBIT Next 3YN/A

EBIT Next 5YN/A

FCF growth 1Y-97.94%

FCF growth 3YN/A

FCF growth 5YN/A

OCF growth 1Y-97.94%

OCF growth 3YN/A

OCF growth 5YN/A

AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AMBC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

1.2 Ratios

1.3 Margins

More info and screens

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

2.2 Solvency

2.3 Liquidity

More info and screens

3. Growth

3.1 Past

3.2 Future

3.3 Evolution

More info and screens

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

4.2 Price Multiples

4.3 Compensation for Growth

More info and screens

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

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