ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NYSE:AGO • BMG0585R1060
Current stock price
80.86 USD
-1.04 (-1.27%)
At close:
80.86 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:
This AGO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
1. AGO Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
- Each year in the past 5 years AGO has been profitable.
- In multiple years AGO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 4.10%, AGO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.47% of the companies in the same industry.
- AGO has a Return On Equity of 8.81%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AGO outperforms 40.82% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 8.81% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)4.38%
ROA(5y)3.2%
ROE(3y)9.53%
ROE(5y)7.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 49.50%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.64% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
- AGO has a Operating Margin of 44.05%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AGO outperforms 96.60% of its industry peers.
- AGO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.05% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 49.5% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y2.56%
OM growth 5Y2.98%
PM growth 3Y43.46%
PM growth 5Y8.02%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. AGO Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
- Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.58. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 6.58 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.58, AGO is doing worse than 69.39% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
- AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.58 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. AGO Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- AGO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 28.07%, which is quite impressive.
- AGO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 24.88% yearly.
- The Revenue has grown by 37.14% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
- AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.23% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.07%
EPS 3Y30.03%
EPS 5Y24.88%
EPS Q2Q%82.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)37.14%
Revenue growth 3Y10.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.23%
Sales Q2Q%77.56%
3.2 Future
- AGO is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -1.35% yearly.
- Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-21.64%
EPS Next 2Y-8.03%
EPS Next 3Y-1.35%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-0.88%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.52%
Revenue Next 3Y1.72%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. AGO Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.91, which indicates a very decent valuation of AGO.
- 64.63% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AGO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.64), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
- The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.36, which indicates a very decent valuation of AGO.
- AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.36, AGO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.91 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.36 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AGO is valued a bit more expensive than 60.54% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y-8.03%
EPS Next 3Y-1.35%
5. AGO Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.82%.
- AGO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 2.37.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, AGO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.82% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.99%!
- AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.99%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years21
5.3 Sustainability
- 13.63% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP13.63%
EPS Next 2Y-8.03%
EPS Next 3Y-1.35%
AGO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
80.86
-1.04 (-1.27%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Industry StrengthN/A
Industry GrowthN/A
Earnings (Last)02-26 2026-02-26/amc
Earnings (Next)05-07 2026-05-07
Inst Owners94.78%
Inst Owner Change0.22%
Ins Owners7.02%
Ins Owner Change-2.66%
Market Cap3.63B
Revenue(TTM)1.01B
Net Income(TTM)499.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target104.38 (29.09%)
Short Float %3.52%
Short Ratio4.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.82% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.99%
DP13.63%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years21
Ex-Date03-06 2026-03-06 (0.38)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)48.69%
Min EPS beat(2)37%
Max EPS beat(2)60.37%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)20.3%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)60.37%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.1%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)64.95%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)54%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)15.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)43.21%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)30.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)15.32%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.5%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.5%
PT rev (1m)-1.6%
PT rev (3m)-1.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.63%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.51%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)14.89%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.91 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.36 | ||
| P/S | 3.6 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.01 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.01 | ||
| P/B | 0.64 | ||
| P/tB | 0.64 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)9.08
EY11.23%
EPS(NY)7.12
Fwd EY8.8%
FCF(TTM)5.77
FCFY7.14%
OCF(TTM)5.77
OCFY7.14%
SpS22.47
BVpS126.24
TBVpS126.24
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
Graham Number160.593 (98.61%)
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 8.81% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 44.05% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 49.5% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 25.69% |
ROA(3y)4.38%
ROA(5y)3.2%
ROE(3y)9.53%
ROE(5y)7.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.93%
ROCE(5y)2.9%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y2.56%
OM growth 5Y2.98%
PM growth 3Y43.46%
PM growth 5Y8.02%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.58 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.22 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 51.9% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)42.26%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.07%
EPS 3Y30.03%
EPS 5Y24.88%
EPS Q2Q%82.68%
EPS Next Y-21.64%
EPS Next 2Y-8.03%
EPS Next 3Y-1.35%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)37.14%
Revenue growth 3Y10.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.23%
Sales Q2Q%77.56%
Revenue Next Year-0.88%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.52%
Revenue Next 3Y1.72%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y16.84%
EBIT growth 3Y13.71%
EBIT growth 5Y1.71%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y451.06%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y451.06%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO Fundamental Analysis FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AGO.
Can you provide the valuation status for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the financial health of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The financial health rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to decline by -21.64% in the next year.