We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AGO. AGO was compared to 148 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.

Quickly go to:

1. Profitability

2. Health

3. Growth

4. Valuation

5. Dividend

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years AGO has been profitable.
In multiple years AGO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.

1.2 Ratios

With a decent Return On Assets value of 3.33%, AGO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.24% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of 7.12%, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 68.24% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	3.33%
ROE	7.12%
ROIC	N/A

ROA(3y)3.26%

ROA(5y)2.86%

ROE(3y)7.41%

ROE(5y)6.77%

ROIC(3y)N/A

ROIC(5y)N/A

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 43.95%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 99.32% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 38.28%, AGO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.97% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
OM	38.28%
PM (TTM)	43.95%
GM	N/A

OM growth 3Y-15.59%

OM growth 5Y-3.31%

PM growth 3Y2.55%

PM growth 5Y5.15%

GM growth 3YN/A

GM growth 5YN/A

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ROA

ROE

ROIC

Operating and Profit Margin

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2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AGO is higher compared to a year ago.

2.2 Solvency

The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 6.40, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 6.40 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.40, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 66.89% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AGO (0.30) is comparable to the rest of the industry.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.3
Debt/FCF	6.4
Altman-Z	N/A

ROIC/WACCN/A

WACCN/A

2.3 Liquidity

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Current Ratio	N/A
Quick Ratio	N/A

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WACC

Debt/Equity

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Altman-Z score

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3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -30.60% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 12.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.88% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.

EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%

EPS 3Y3.1%

EPS 5Y12.76%

EPS Q2Q%6.2%

Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%

Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%

Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%

Sales Q2Q%-38.29%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.64% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -2.33% on average over the next years.

EPS Next Y15.06%

EPS Next 2Y0.95%

EPS Next 3Y3.64%

EPS Next 5YN/A

Revenue Next Year1.61%

Revenue Next 2Y-5.59%

Revenue Next 3Y-2.33%

Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.

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4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 10.57 indicates a reasonable valuation of AGO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.30, AGO is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.74, the valuation of AGO can be described as reasonable.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AGO.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 25.57. AGO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	10.57
Fwd PE	11.74

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AGO.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
P/FCF	14.7
EV/EBITDA	N/A

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.

PEG (NY)0.7

PEG (5Y)0.83

EPS Next 2Y0.95%

EPS Next 3Y3.64%

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5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.60%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.23, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.83, AGO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	1.6%

5.2 History

The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.15%!
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.

Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%

Div Incr Years13

Div Non Decr Years20

5.3 Sustainability

17.12% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.

DP17.12%

EPS Next 2Y0.95%

EPS Next 3Y3.64%

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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.

Can you provide the valuation status for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.

What is the profitability of AGO stock?

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.

How financially healthy is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?

The financial health rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 2 / 10.

Is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD sustainable?

The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.12%.