ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AGO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AGO. AGO was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AGO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGO was profitable.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AGO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AGO (3.16%) is better than 72.03% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 6.84%, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 72.03% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.16% | ||
| ROE | 6.84% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 51.16%, AGO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.90% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AGO has a Operating Margin of 51.70%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AGO outperforms 97.90% of its industry peers.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 51.7% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 51.16% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 36.15. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 36.15 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 36.15, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 81.82% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.31. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.31) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.31 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 36.15 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -29.16% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 12.76% on average per year.
The Revenue for AGO has decreased by -23.52% in the past year. This is quite bad
AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.16%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%62.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%73.37%
3.2 Future
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 1.93% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.85% on average per year.
EPS Next Y8.02%
EPS Next 2Y0.85%
EPS Next 3Y1.93%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-4.16%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.82%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AGO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.16.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AGO is cheaper than 67.13% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.82), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.71, the valuation of AGO can be described as reasonable.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.76), we can say AGO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.71 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AGO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather expensive when compared to the industry. AGO is more expensive than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 89.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.27
PEG (5Y)0.8
EPS Next 2Y0.85%
EPS Next 3Y1.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.57%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.18, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.57% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
18.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP18.09%
EPS Next 2Y0.85%
EPS Next 3Y1.93%
84.44
+0.49 (+0.58%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.81%
Inst Owner Change5.44%
Ins Owners6.31%
Ins Owner Change2.62%
Market Cap4.22B
Analysts82.22
Price Target107.44 (27.24%)
Short Float %2.5%
Short Ratio2.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.57% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP18.09%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)35.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(2)78.01%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)29.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)87.27%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)65.24%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)76.24%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)5.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)32.26%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)32.26%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.48%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.16%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.42%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-1.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.47%
EPS NQ rev (3m)75.88%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)18.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-16.86%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)10.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.61%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.71 | ||
| P/S | 5.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 89.69 | ||
| P/OCF | 89.69 | ||
| P/B | 0.77 | ||
| P/tB | 0.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.31
EY9.84%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY8.54%
FCF(TTM)0.94
FCFY1.12%
OCF(TTM)0.94
OCFY1.12%
SpS14.72
BVpS110.08
TBVpS110.08
PEG (NY)1.27
PEG (5Y)0.8
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.16% | ||
| ROE | 6.84% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 51.7% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 51.16% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 6.39% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.31 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 36.15 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 12.5% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.16%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%62.24%
EPS Next Y8.02%
EPS Next 2Y0.85%
EPS Next 3Y1.93%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%73.37%
Revenue Next Year-4.16%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.82%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y61.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-89.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-89.8%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A