ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
81.61 USD
+0.26 (+0.32%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AGO. AGO was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AGO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AGO is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGO was profitable.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years AGO has always been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a Return On Assets of 3.87%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGO outperforms 76.71% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 8.31%, AGO is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.78% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.87% | ||
| ROE | 8.31% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AGO (47.61%) is better than 99.32% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of AGO (44.96%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.96% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 47.61% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.46. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 7.46 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.46. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 67.12% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.46 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -37.31%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 12.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has grown by 28.16% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.31%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-29.86%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)28.16%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%61.49%
3.2 Future
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.77% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.85% on average per year.
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.36, the valuation of AGO can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
AGO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.51, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.31, the valuation of AGO can be described as very reasonable.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AGO.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.53), we can say AGO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.31 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AGO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.25
PEG (5Y)0.81
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.66%, AGO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.34, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AGO pays out 14.53% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AGO is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP14.53%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
NYSE:AGO (11/4/2025, 10:07:16 AM)
81.61
+0.26 (+0.32%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.76%
Inst Owner Change-0.75%
Ins Owners6.95%
Ins Owner Change-3.8%
Market Cap3.88B
Revenue(TTM)983.00M
Net Income(TTM)468.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target107.87 (32.18%)
Short Float %2.76%
Short Ratio4.07
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP14.53%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.09%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)18.03%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)13.51%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)88.58%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)62.88%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)69.11%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)44.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)41.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)11.65%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)7.48%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.73%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-0.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.19%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.91%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.31 | ||
| P/S | 3.95 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.03 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.03 | ||
| P/B | 0.69 | ||
| P/tB | 0.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)7.88
EY9.66%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY8.84%
FCF(TTM)4.79
FCFY5.87%
OCF(TTM)4.79
OCFY5.87%
SpS20.66
BVpS118.37
TBVpS118.37
PEG (NY)1.25
PEG (5Y)0.81
Graham Number144.87
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.87% | ||
| ROE | 8.31% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 44.96% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 47.61% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 23.19% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.46 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.14 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 48.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.31%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-29.86%
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)28.16%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%61.49%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y60.73%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y191.57%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y191.57%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AGO.
What is the valuation status for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AGO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to grow by 8.27% in the next year.
How sustainable is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 14.53%.