ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
82.2 USD
+0.3 (+0.37%)
82.2 USD
0 (0%)
AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AGO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AGO is valued expensive and it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years AGO has been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a better Return On Assets (3.72%) than 75.52% of its industry peers.
AGO's Return On Equity of 7.94% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AGO outperforms 40.56% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.72% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO has a Profit Margin of 50.45%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AGO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 54.55%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 54.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 50.45% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
AGO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 8.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 8.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AGO's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.17 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 67.83% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -37.31% in the last year.
AGO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.76% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AGO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -23.52% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.31%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-29.86%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%61.49%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 0.43% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y4.6%
EPS Next 2Y-2.07%
EPS Next 3Y0.43%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AGO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.43.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AGO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 62.94% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AGO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.08, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.09, the valuation of AGO can be described as correct.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AGO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.72, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.09 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AGO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AGO is more expensive than 60.14% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.81 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)2.27
PEG (5Y)0.82
EPS Next 2Y-2.07%
EPS Next 3Y0.43%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.68%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.52, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.15%!
AGO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AGO pays out 15.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AGO is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP15.32%
EPS Next 2Y-2.07%
EPS Next 3Y0.43%
82.2
+0.3 (+0.37%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.28%
Inst Owner Change-10.38%
Ins Owners6.82%
Ins Owner Change-3.2%
Market Cap3.91B
Analysts80
Price Target107.87 (31.23%)
Short Float %2.52%
Short Ratio3.37
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP15.32%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)5.11%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(2)18.03%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)22.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)87.49%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)61.67%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)77.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.61%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)41.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)10.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)41.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.03%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.94%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.25%
PT rev (1m)-0.7%
PT rev (3m)0.4%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.44%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.17%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-3.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.09 | ||
| P/S | 4.45 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.81 | ||
| P/OCF | 18.81 | ||
| P/B | 0.7 | ||
| P/tB | 0.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)7.88
EY9.59%
EPS(NY)6.8
Fwd EY8.27%
FCF(TTM)4.37
FCFY5.32%
OCF(TTM)4.37
OCFY5.32%
SpS18.49
BVpS117.46
TBVpS117.46
PEG (NY)2.27
PEG (5Y)0.82
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.72% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 54.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 50.45% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 23.64% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 46.85% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.31%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-29.86%
EPS Next Y4.6%
EPS Next 2Y-2.07%
EPS Next 3Y0.43%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%61.49%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y110.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y116.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y116.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A