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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AGO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

81.8  -1.47 (-1.77%)

Fundamental Rating

3

Overall AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AGO against 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AGO was profitable.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years AGO has been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
AGO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAGO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B -1B -2B

1.2 Ratios

AGO has a Return On Assets of 3.16%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGO outperforms 69.93% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 6.84%, AGO is doing worse than 64.34% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.16%
ROE 6.84%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AGO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAGO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

With an excellent Profit Margin value of 51.16%, AGO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.90% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 51.70%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.90% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 51.7%
PM (TTM) 51.16%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
AGO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAGO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60 80

2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
AGO Yearly Shares OutstandingAGO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
AGO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAGO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 36.15, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 36.15 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO (36.15) is worse than 75.52% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.31. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.31) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.31
Debt/FCF 36.15
Altman-Z N/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
AGO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAGO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B -2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
AGO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAGO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M 150M 200M

3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -34.89%.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 12.76% on average per year.
The Revenue for AGO has decreased by -11.02% in the past year. This is quite bad
AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34.89%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-77.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.02%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%87.95%

3.2 Future

AGO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.73% yearly.
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.85% yearly.
EPS Next Y1.85%
EPS Next 2Y1.64%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-3.57%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AGO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAGO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
AGO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAGO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2 4 6 8 10

3

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.54, the valuation of AGO can be described as reasonable.
AGO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.29), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.33 indicates a reasonable valuation of AGO.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.32.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.54
Fwd PE 11.33
AGO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAGO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AGO is valued a bit more expensive than 76.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 86.88
EV/EBITDA N/A
AGO Per share dataAGO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)6.22
PEG (5Y)0.9
EPS Next 2Y1.64%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%

5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.63%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.28, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.51.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.63%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
AGO Yearly Dividends per shareAGO Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

5.3 Sustainability

18.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP18.09%
EPS Next 2Y1.64%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%
AGO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAGO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B -1B -2B
AGO Dividend Payout.AGO Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AGO Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

NYSE:AGO (4/21/2025, 1:49:22 PM)

81.8

-1.47 (-1.77%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)02-27 2025-02-27/amc
Earnings (Next)05-13 2025-05-13/amc
Inst Owners94.81%
Inst Owner Change0.9%
Ins Owners6.31%
Ins Owner Change2.43%
Market Cap4.08B
Analysts82.22
Price Target107.44 (31.34%)
Short Float %2.14%
Short Ratio3.86
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.63%
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP18.09%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date03-05 2025-03-05 (0.34)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)35.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(2)78.01%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)29.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)87.27%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)65.24%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)76.24%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)5.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)32.26%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)32.26%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.48%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.16%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.42%
PT rev (1m)-1.1%
PT rev (3m)-1.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)68.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)11.47%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.47%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)32.62%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.13%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.54
Fwd PE 11.33
P/S 5.56
P/FCF 86.88
P/OCF 86.88
P/B 0.74
P/tB 0.74
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)7.09
EY8.67%
EPS(NY)7.22
Fwd EY8.83%
FCF(TTM)0.94
FCFY1.15%
OCF(TTM)0.94
OCFY1.15%
SpS14.72
BVpS110.08
TBVpS110.08
PEG (NY)6.22
PEG (5Y)0.9
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.16%
ROE 6.84%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM 51.7%
PM (TTM) 51.16%
GM N/A
FCFM 6.39%
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.31
Debt/FCF 36.15
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 4.32
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality 12.5%
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
Altman-Z N/A
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34.89%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-77.91%
EPS Next Y1.85%
EPS Next 2Y1.64%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.02%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%87.95%
Revenue Next Year-3.57%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y61.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-89.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-89.8%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A