ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NYSE:AGO • BMG0585R1060
Current stock price
81.1 USD
+0.46 (+0.57%)
At close:
81.1 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:
This AGO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
1. AGO Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year AGO was profitable.
- In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
- In the past 5 years AGO has always been profitable.
- In multiple years AGO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 4.10%, AGO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.47% of the companies in the same industry.
- Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 8.81%, AGO is in line with its industry, outperforming 42.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 8.81% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)4.38%
ROA(5y)3.2%
ROE(3y)9.53%
ROE(5y)7.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- AGO has a better Profit Margin (49.50%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
- AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- AGO's Operating Margin of 44.05% is amongst the best of the industry. AGO outperforms 96.60% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.05% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 49.5% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y2.56%
OM growth 5Y2.98%
PM growth 3Y43.46%
PM growth 5Y8.02%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. AGO Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- AGO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 6.58, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 6.58 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- AGO's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.58 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 69.39% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
- AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.30. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AGO outperforms 52.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.58 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. AGO Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- AGO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 28.07%, which is quite impressive.
- AGO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 24.88% yearly.
- AGO shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 37.14%.
- AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.23% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.07%
EPS 3Y30.03%
EPS 5Y24.88%
EPS Q2Q%82.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)37.14%
Revenue growth 3Y10.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.23%
Sales Q2Q%77.56%
3.2 Future
- AGO is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -7.23% yearly.
- Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-21.14%
EPS Next 2Y-7.23%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-0.88%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.52%
Revenue Next 3Y1.72%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. AGO Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 8.93 indicates a reasonable valuation of AGO.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AGO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 64.63% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.17), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
- AGO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.33.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
- AGO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.05, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.33 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AGO is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 61.22% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A cheap valuation may be justified as AGO's earnings are expected to decrease with -7.23% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y-7.23%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. AGO Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.92%, AGO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.55, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.89, AGO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.92% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.99%!
- AGO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.99%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years21
5.3 Sustainability
- 13.63% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP13.63%
EPS Next 2Y-7.23%
EPS Next 3YN/A
AGO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
81.1
+0.46 (+0.57%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)02-26 2026-02-26/amc
Earnings (Next)05-06 2026-05-06
Inst Owners94.05%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners7.33%
Ins Owner Change-2.66%
Market Cap3.64B
Revenue(TTM)1.01B
Net Income(TTM)499.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target104.38 (28.71%)
Short Float %3.04%
Short Ratio4.33
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.92% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.99%
DP13.63%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years21
Ex-Date03-06 2026-03-06 (0.38)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)48.69%
Min EPS beat(2)37%
Max EPS beat(2)60.37%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)20.3%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)60.37%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.1%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)64.95%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)54%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)15.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)43.21%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)30.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)15.32%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.5%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.5%
PT rev (1m)-1.6%
PT rev (3m)-1.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.08%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.89%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)14.89%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)23.82%
Revenue NY rev (1m)13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)14.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.33 | ||
| P/S | 3.61 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.07 | ||
| P/B | 0.64 | ||
| P/tB | 0.64 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)9.08
EY11.2%
EPS(NY)7.16
Fwd EY8.83%
FCF(TTM)5.76
FCFY7.11%
OCF(TTM)5.76
OCFY7.11%
SpS22.43
BVpS126.04
TBVpS126.04
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
Graham Number160.47
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 8.81% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 44.05% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 49.5% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 25.69% |
ROA(3y)4.38%
ROA(5y)3.2%
ROE(3y)9.53%
ROE(5y)7.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.93%
ROCE(5y)2.9%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y2.56%
OM growth 5Y2.98%
PM growth 3Y43.46%
PM growth 5Y8.02%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.58 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.22 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 51.9% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)42.26%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.07%
EPS 3Y30.03%
EPS 5Y24.88%
EPS Q2Q%82.68%
EPS Next Y-21.14%
EPS Next 2Y-7.23%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)37.14%
Revenue growth 3Y10.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.23%
Sales Q2Q%77.56%
Revenue Next Year-0.88%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.52%
Revenue Next 3Y1.72%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y16.84%
EBIT growth 3Y13.71%
EBIT growth 5Y1.71%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y451.06%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y451.06%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO Fundamental Analysis FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AGO.
Can you provide the valuation status for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the financial health of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The financial health rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to decline by -21.14% in the next year.