ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
90.05 USD
+0.27 (+0.3%)
90.05 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AGO. AGO was compared to 147 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
AGO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO's Return On Assets of 3.33% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AGO outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Return On Equity of 7.12%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 70.75% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 43.95%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.64% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 38.28%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.64% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.40. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 6.40 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.40 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 67.35% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -30.60%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 12.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, AGO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.88% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
3.2 Future
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.77% yearly.
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.85% yearly.
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 11.21 indicates a reasonable valuation of AGO.
AGO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.98, AGO is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.48, the valuation of AGO can be described as correct.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AGO.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (35.79), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AGO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.36
PEG (5Y)0.88
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.54%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.46, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.41, AGO is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.54% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
17.12% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP17.12%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
90.05
+0.27 (+0.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.76%
Inst Owner Change-4.65%
Ins Owners6.95%
Ins Owner Change-1.97%
Market Cap4.29B
Revenue(TTM)917.00M
Net Income(TTM)403.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target104.38 (15.91%)
Short Float %2.85%
Short Ratio4.13
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.54% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP17.12%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)60.37%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.09%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)60.37%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)68.16%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)55.58%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)75.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)17.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)14.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)9.41%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)9.81%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.09%
PT rev (1m)-3.23%
PT rev (3m)-3.23%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.01%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.51%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.48 | ||
| P/S | 4.67 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.11 | ||
| P/OCF | 16.11 | ||
| P/B | 0.76 | ||
| P/tB | 0.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.03
EY8.92%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY8.01%
FCF(TTM)5.59
FCFY6.21%
OCF(TTM)5.59
OCFY6.21%
SpS19.27
BVpS118.89
TBVpS118.89
PEG (NY)1.36
PEG (5Y)0.88
Graham Number146.56
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 29.01% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.13 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 66.01% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y171.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y171.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.
What is the valuation status for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AGO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to grow by 8.27% in the next year.
How sustainable is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.12%.