ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
90.65 USD
-0.21 (-0.23%)
90.65 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AGO. AGO was compared to 148 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AGO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AGO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGO was profitable.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AGO has always been profitable.
In multiple years AGO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 3.33%, AGO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Return On Equity of 7.12% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 68.92% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO's Profit Margin of 43.95% is amongst the best of the industry. AGO outperforms 99.32% of its industry peers.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AGO's Operating Margin of 38.28% is amongst the best of the industry. AGO outperforms 97.97% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 6.40, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 6.40 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AGO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 6.40. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 66.89% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -30.60% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 12.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, AGO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.88% in the last year.
AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.64% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y15.06%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.29, the valuation of AGO can be described as very reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.57), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.55, AGO is valued correctly.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.04, AGO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.29 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.71 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.75
PEG (5Y)0.88
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.50%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.30, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 1.88.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
17.12% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AGO is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP17.12%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
90.65
-0.21 (-0.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.61%
Inst Owner Change-4.65%
Ins Owners7.03%
Ins Owner Change-1.43%
Market Cap4.18B
Revenue(TTM)917.00M
Net Income(TTM)403.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target106.08 (17.02%)
Short Float %3.02%
Short Ratio4.5
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP17.12%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)60.37%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.09%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)60.37%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)68.16%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)55.58%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)75.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)17.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)14.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)9.41%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)9.81%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.09%
PT rev (1m)-1.65%
PT rev (3m)-1.65%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.42%
EPS NQ rev (3m)8.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.27%
EPS NY rev (3m)10%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.29 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.55 | ||
| P/S | 4.56 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.71 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.71 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.03
EY8.86%
EPS(NY)7.22
Fwd EY7.97%
FCF(TTM)5.77
FCFY6.37%
OCF(TTM)5.77
OCFY6.37%
SpS19.9
BVpS122.76
TBVpS122.76
PEG (NY)0.75
PEG (5Y)0.88
Graham Number148.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 29.01% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.13 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 66.01% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
EPS Next Y15.06%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y171.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y171.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.
What is the valuation status for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AGO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to grow by 15.06% in the next year.
How sustainable is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.12%.