ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AGO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AGO against 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AGO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years AGO has always been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a Return On Assets of 3.72%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGO outperforms 76.22% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Return On Equity of 7.94%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 60.84% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.72% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AGO (50.45%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AGO has a better Operating Margin (54.55%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 54.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 50.45% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
AGO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.17. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 8.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.17 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 65.73% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -29.16%.
AGO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.76% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 9.73% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.16%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%62.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.73%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%73.37%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 1.96% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y13%
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-4.16%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.34%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 10.15 indicates a reasonable valuation of AGO.
63.64% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AGO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.24, AGO is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.76, the valuation of AGO can be described as reasonable.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AGO.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (36.42), we can say AGO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
60.84% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AGO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.78
PEG (5Y)0.8
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.61%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AGO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.38.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AGO pays out 15.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP15.32%
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
84.34
+0.5 (+0.6%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.71%
Inst Owner Change-0.7%
Ins Owners6.88%
Ins Owner Change1.63%
Market Cap4.14B
Analysts80
Price Target108.63 (28.8%)
Short Float %2.32%
Short Ratio3.24
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP15.32%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)5.11%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(2)18.03%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)22.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)87.49%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)61.67%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)77.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.61%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)41.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)10.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)41.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.03%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.94%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.25%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)10.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.88%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.76 | ||
| P/S | 4.7 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.9 | ||
| P/OCF | 19.9 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.31
EY9.85%
EPS(NY)7.17
Fwd EY8.5%
FCF(TTM)4.24
FCFY5.03%
OCF(TTM)4.24
OCFY5.03%
SpS17.93
BVpS113.92
TBVpS113.92
PEG (NY)0.78
PEG (5Y)0.8
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.72% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 54.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 50.45% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 23.64% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 46.85% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.16%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%62.24%
EPS Next Y13%
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.73%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%73.37%
Revenue Next Year-4.16%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.34%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y110.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y116.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y116.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A