AGNC INVESTMENT CORP (AGNC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:AGNC - Nasdaq - US00123Q1040 - REIT - Currency: USD
AGNC gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 67 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. While AGNC is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AGNC has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGNC was profitable.
AGNC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGNC reported negative net income in multiple years.
AGNC had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AGNC has a Return On Assets of 0.35%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AGNC outperforms 49.25% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 3.33%, AGNC is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.75% of the companies in the same industry.
AGNC has a Return On Invested Capital (0.40%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.35% | ||
| ROE | 3.33% | ||
| ROIC | 0.4% |
ROA(3y)-0.54%
ROA(5y)-0.22%
ROE(3y)-2.86%
ROE(5y)-1.11%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGNC's Profit Margin of 9.46% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC outperforms 64.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGNC has declined.
AGNC has a better Operating Margin (13.31%) than 67.16% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGNC has remained more or less at the same level.
AGNC's Gross Margin of 16.54% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC outperforms 43.28% of its industry peers.
AGNC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.31% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.46% | ||
| GM | 16.54% |
OM growth 3Y-35.43%
OM growth 5Y-1.27%
PM growth 3Y-35.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.73%
GM growth 3Y-35.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.15%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGNC has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AGNC has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AGNC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGNC has an Altman-Z score of -1.06. This is a bad value and indicates that AGNC is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of -1.06, AGNC is not doing good in the industry: 95.52% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGNC is 323.18, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGNC, 323.18 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGNC (323.18) is worse than 64.18% of its industry peers.
AGNC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 8.30. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 8.30, AGNC is doing worse than 77.61% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 8.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 323.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | -1.06 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
AGNC has a Current Ratio of 0.02. This is a bad value and indicates that AGNC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.02, AGNC is not doing good in the industry: 88.06% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AGNC has a Quick Ratio of 0.02. This is a bad value and indicates that AGNC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AGNC has a worse Quick ratio (0.02) than 88.06% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.02 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.02 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGNC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -31.36%.
Measured over the past years, AGNC shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -2.52% on average per year.
AGNC shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 6.76%.
AGNC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.98% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.36%
EPS 3Y-14.16%
EPS 5Y-2.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.76%
Revenue growth 3Y62.37%
Revenue growth 5Y5.98%
Sales Q2Q%5500%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -5.57% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 201.74% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
EPS Next Y-11.58%
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1995.79%
Revenue Next 2Y430.41%
Revenue Next 3Y201.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 6.01, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of AGNC.
AGNC's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AGNC is cheaper than 92.54% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AGNC to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.91), we can say AGNC is valued rather cheaply.
AGNC is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.94.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGNC indicates a rather cheap valuation: AGNC is cheaper than 92.54% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 37.11. AGNC is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AGNC.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 38.52 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGNC's earnings are expected to decrease with -5.57% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGNC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 8.77%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 11.20, AGNC's dividend is way lower than its industry peers. On top of this 80.60% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than AGNC!
AGNC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.77% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGNC decreases each year by -5.92%.
AGNC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGNC has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-5.92%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
395.81% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGNC. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of AGNC has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP395.81%
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
9.74
+0.06 (+0.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners41.88%
Inst Owner Change6.48%
Ins Owners0.38%
Ins Owner Change-9.05%
Market Cap9.94B
Analysts78.1
Price Target9.87 (1.33%)
Short Float %4.93%
Short Ratio2.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.77% |
Yearly Dividend1.56
Dividend Growth(5Y)-5.92%
DP395.81%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-3.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.53%
Max EPS beat(2)7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.95%
Max EPS beat(4)7.47%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.58%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.43%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)6.38%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-49.72%
Min Revenue beat(2)-52.02%
Max Revenue beat(2)-47.42%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-84.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-133.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)-47.42%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-97.85%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-90.88%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-106.22%
PT rev (1m)1.43%
PT rev (3m)0.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.01%
EPS NQ rev (3m)4.04%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)14.96%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.17%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.94 | ||
| P/S | 2.82 | ||
| P/FCF | 38.52 | ||
| P/OCF | 38.52 | ||
| P/B | 0.99 | ||
| P/tB | 1.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)1.62
EY16.63%
EPS(NY)1.64
Fwd EY16.82%
FCF(TTM)0.25
FCFY2.6%
OCF(TTM)0.25
OCFY2.6%
SpS3.46
BVpS9.84
TBVpS9.33
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.35% | ||
| ROE | 3.33% | ||
| ROCE | 4.62% | ||
| ROIC | 0.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 0.4% | ||
| OM | 13.31% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.46% | ||
| GM | 16.54% | ||
| FCFM | 7.31% |
ROA(3y)-0.54%
ROA(5y)-0.22%
ROE(3y)-2.86%
ROE(5y)-1.11%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.26%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.07%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.52%
OM growth 3Y-35.43%
OM growth 5Y-1.27%
PM growth 3Y-35.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.73%
GM growth 3Y-35.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.15%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.04
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 8.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 323.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 77.25% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.02 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | -1.06 |
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.36%
EPS 3Y-14.16%
EPS 5Y-2.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.3%
EPS Next Y-11.58%
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.76%
Revenue growth 3Y62.37%
Revenue growth 5Y5.98%
Sales Q2Q%5500%
Revenue Next Year1995.79%
Revenue Next 2Y430.41%
Revenue Next 3Y201.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-37.25%
EBIT growth 3Y4.84%
EBIT growth 5Y4.64%
EBIT Next Year33.61%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-61.38%
FCF growth 3Y-61.78%
FCF growth 5Y-40.77%
OCF growth 1Y-61.38%
OCF growth 3Y-61.78%
OCF growth 5Y-40.77%