AGNC INVESTMENT CORP (AGNC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:AGNC - Nasdaq - US00123Q1040 - REIT - Currency: USD
Overall AGNC gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AGNC against 67 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGNC while its profitability can be described as average. AGNC has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGNC was profitable.
AGNC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGNC reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years AGNC 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AGNC (0.23%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of AGNC (2.28%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AGNC has a Return On Invested Capital of 0.30%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AGNC outperforms 50.75% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.23% | ||
| ROE | 2.28% | ||
| ROIC | 0.3% |
ROA(3y)-0.54%
ROA(5y)-0.22%
ROE(3y)-2.86%
ROE(5y)-1.11%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGNC's Profit Margin of 6.92% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC outperforms 65.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGNC has declined.
AGNC has a Operating Margin of 11.08%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGNC outperforms 64.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGNC has remained more or less at the same level.
AGNC's Gross Margin of 14.54% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC outperforms 43.28% of its industry peers.
AGNC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.92% | ||
| GM | 14.54% |
OM growth 3Y-35.43%
OM growth 5Y-1.27%
PM growth 3Y-35.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.73%
GM growth 3Y-35.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.15%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGNC has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AGNC has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AGNC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGNC has an Altman-Z score of -1.09. This is a bad value and indicates that AGNC is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of -1.09, AGNC is doing worse than 92.54% of the companies in the same industry.
AGNC has a debt to FCF ratio of 197.64. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGNC would need 197.64 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGNC's Debt to FCF ratio of 197.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC is outperformed by 70.15% of its industry peers.
AGNC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 8.75. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AGNC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 8.75. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGNC underperforms 79.10% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 8.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 197.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | -1.09 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.01 indicates that AGNC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AGNC has a worse Current ratio (0.01) than 91.04% of its industry peers.
AGNC has a Quick Ratio of 0.01. This is a bad value and indicates that AGNC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AGNC's Quick ratio of 0.01 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC is outperformed by 91.04% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.01 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.01 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGNC have decreased strongly by -31.36% in the last year.
AGNC shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -2.52% yearly.
AGNC shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 6.76%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.98% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.36%
EPS 3Y-14.16%
EPS 5Y-2.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.76%
Revenue growth 3Y62.37%
Revenue growth 5Y5.98%
Sales Q2Q%5500%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -5.57% on average over the next years.
AGNC is expected to show a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 201.74% yearly.
EPS Next Y-11.58%
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1995.79%
Revenue Next 2Y430.41%
Revenue Next 3Y201.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.93, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of AGNC.
AGNC's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AGNC is cheaper than 94.03% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.85, AGNC is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.87 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AGNC.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AGNC is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.54% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.98, AGNC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.87 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AGNC.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 21.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGNC's earnings are expected to decrease with -5.57% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.81%, AGNC is a good candidate for dividend investing.
AGNC's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 10.69.
AGNC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.81% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGNC decreases each year by -5.92%.
AGNC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGNC has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-5.92%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
602.97% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGNC. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of AGNC has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP602.97%
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
9.61
+0.03 (+0.31%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners38.94%
Inst Owner Change15.96%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change-10.08%
Market Cap10.01B
Analysts78.1
Price Target9.94 (3.43%)
Short Float %4.59%
Short Ratio2.3
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.81% |
Yearly Dividend1.56
Dividend Growth(5Y)-5.92%
DP602.97%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-9.32%
Max EPS beat(2)7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-8.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.95%
Max EPS beat(4)7.47%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-4.35%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.44%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.9%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-55.29%
Min Revenue beat(2)-58.55%
Max Revenue beat(2)-52.02%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-72.78%
Min Revenue beat(4)-133.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)-47.42%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-90.31%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-78.9%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-96.7%
PT rev (1m)2.14%
PT rev (3m)2.14%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-20.82%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-9.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.66%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.87 | ||
| P/S | 2.93 | ||
| P/FCF | 21.86 | ||
| P/OCF | 21.86 | ||
| P/B | 0.97 | ||
| P/tB | 1.02 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)1.62
EY16.86%
EPS(NY)1.64
Fwd EY17.05%
FCF(TTM)0.44
FCFY4.58%
OCF(TTM)0.44
OCFY4.58%
SpS3.28
BVpS9.93
TBVpS9.43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.23% | ||
| ROE | 2.28% | ||
| ROCE | 3.6% | ||
| ROIC | 0.3% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.3% | ||
| ROICexgc | 0.3% | ||
| OM | 11.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.92% | ||
| GM | 14.54% | ||
| FCFM | 13.42% |
ROA(3y)-0.54%
ROA(5y)-0.22%
ROE(3y)-2.86%
ROE(5y)-1.11%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.26%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.07%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.52%
OM growth 3Y-35.43%
OM growth 5Y-1.27%
PM growth 3Y-35.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.73%
GM growth 3Y-35.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.15%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.03
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 8.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 197.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 194.07% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.01 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.01 | ||
| Altman-Z | -1.09 |
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.36%
EPS 3Y-14.16%
EPS 5Y-2.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.3%
EPS Next Y-11.58%
EPS Next 2Y-7.38%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.76%
Revenue growth 3Y62.37%
Revenue growth 5Y5.98%
Sales Q2Q%5500%
Revenue Next Year1995.79%
Revenue Next 2Y430.41%
Revenue Next 3Y201.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-8.92%
EBIT growth 3Y4.84%
EBIT growth 5Y4.64%
EBIT Next Year33.61%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y60.7%
FCF growth 3Y-61.78%
FCF growth 5Y-40.77%
OCF growth 1Y60.7%
OCF growth 3Y-61.78%
OCF growth 5Y-40.77%