AFLAC INC (AFL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AFL - US0010551028 - Common Stock
114.09 USD
+0.39 (+0.34%)
114.09 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AFL. AFL was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AFL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AFL is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AFL was profitable.
In the past year AFL had a positive cash flow from operations.
AFL had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years AFL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AFL has a Return On Assets of 1.95%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFL outperforms 48.63% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AFL (8.96%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AFL has a Return On Invested Capital (2.38%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AFL is in line with the industry average of 4.53%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.95% | ||
| ROE | 8.96% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
1.3 Margins
AFL's Profit Margin of 15.32% is amongst the best of the industry. AFL outperforms 81.51% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AFL has grown nicely.
AFL's Operating Margin of 21.35% is amongst the best of the industry. AFL outperforms 82.88% of its industry peers.
AFL's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.32% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AFL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AFL has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AFL has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AFL is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AFL has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.41. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as AFL would need 3.41 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AFL's Debt to FCF ratio of 3.41 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFL outperforms 46.58% of its industry peers.
AFL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.32. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AFL's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.32 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFL outperforms 48.63% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.32 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.3
WACC8.04%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AFL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 8.70%, which is quite good.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.21% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
AFL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.21%.
AFL shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -3.26% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.21%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AFL will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.96% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.42% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y3.96%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y2.42%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 15.21, which indicates a correct valuation of AFL.
AFL's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.83, AFL is valued a bit cheaper.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.39 indicates a correct valuation of AFL.
AFL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AFL is more expensive than 62.33% of the companies in the same industry.
AFL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 32.68.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.39 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AFL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AFL is valued a bit more expensive than 62.33% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.55 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.72 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of AFL may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.49
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.04%, AFL has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.33.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.39.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AFL grows each year by 13.11%, which is quite nice.
AFL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AFL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
AFL pays out 46.94% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of AFL is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP46.94%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
114.09
+0.39 (+0.34%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners59.68%
Inst Owner Change-0.9%
Ins Owners0.8%
Ins Owner Change-0.48%
Market Cap61.02B
Revenue(TTM)18.93B
Net Income(TTM)2.44B
Analysts66.67
Price Target112.71 (-1.21%)
Short Float %1.32%
Short Ratio2.78
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
Yearly Dividend1.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
DP46.94%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.95%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.8%
Max EPS beat(2)3.7%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)6.2%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.02%
Max EPS beat(4)26.91%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.14%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)6.57%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)6.81%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-13.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-21.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.93%
Min Revenue beat(4)-34%
Max Revenue beat(4)28.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.84%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.24%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.59%
PT rev (1m)1.61%
PT rev (3m)2.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.35%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.77%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.69%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.39 | ||
| P/S | 3.84 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.55 | ||
| P/OCF | 23.55 | ||
| P/B | 2.24 | ||
| P/tB | 2.24 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.72 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY6.57%
EPS(NY)7.41
Fwd EY6.5%
FCF(TTM)4.84
FCFY4.25%
OCF(TTM)4.84
OCFY4.25%
SpS29.75
BVpS50.86
TBVpS50.86
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.49
Graham Number92.64
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.95% | ||
| ROE | 8.96% | ||
| ROCE | 2.74% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.52% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.57% | ||
| OM | 21.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.32% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 16.29% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
ROICexc(3y)4.12%
ROICexc(5y)3.62%
ROICexgc(3y)4.23%
ROICexgc(5y)3.71%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.02%
ROICexgc growth 3Y16.53%
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.62%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.6%
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.13
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.32 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.06 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 18.36 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 60.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | 106.32% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACC8.04%
ROIC/WACC0.3
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)70.18%
Profit Quality(5y)90.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y3.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.21%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y2.42%
EBIT growth 1Y-47.57%
EBIT growth 3Y5.83%
EBIT growth 5Y7.05%
EBIT Next Year-7.19%
EBIT Next 3Y-1.6%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-18.93%
FCF growth 3Y-18.77%
FCF growth 5Y-13.08%
OCF growth 1Y-18.93%
OCF growth 3Y-18.77%
OCF growth 5Y-13.08%
AFLAC INC / AFL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AFL.
What is the valuation status of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AFLAC INC (AFL). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AFL stock?
AFLAC INC (AFL) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AFLAC INC (AFL) is 15.21 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.24.
What is the earnings growth outlook for AFLAC INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AFLAC INC (AFL) is expected to decline by -3.55% in the next year.