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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AFG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0259321042 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

127.46  +0.12 (+0.09%)

After market: 127.46 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

5

Taking everything into account, AFG scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AFG was compared to 145 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFG has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. AFG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AFG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AFG had a positive cash flow from operations.
AFG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AFG had a positive operating cash flow.
AFG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAFG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

AFG has a Return On Assets (2.64%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AFG has a Return On Equity of 18.19%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFG outperforms 82.76% of its industry peers.
AFG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.66%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AFG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.95%. This is in line with the industry average of 4.07%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.64%
ROE 18.19%
ROIC 2.66%
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
AFG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAFG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.71%, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.52% of the companies in the same industry.
AFG's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
AFG has a Operating Margin (12.29%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFG has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.29%
PM (TTM) 9.71%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
AFG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAFG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

6

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AFG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
AFG Yearly Shares OutstandingAFG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M
AFG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAFG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.80, we must say that AFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AFG has a better Altman-Z score (0.80) than 79.31% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AFG is 1.16, which is an excellent value as it means it would take AFG, only 1.16 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.16, AFG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.55% of the companies in the same industry.
AFG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.34. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AFG has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.34) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.34
Debt/FCF 1.16
Altman-Z 0.8
ROIC/WACC0.31
WACC8.46%
AFG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAFG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 3.75 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
AFG's Current ratio of 3.75 is amongst the best of the industry. AFG outperforms 95.86% of its industry peers.
AFG has a Quick Ratio of 3.75. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 3.75, AFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.86% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.75
Quick Ratio 3.75
AFG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAFG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

AFG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.04%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.54% on average over the past years.
AFG shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 2.87%.
AFG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 0.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.04%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%-34.42%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.87%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%2.2%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, AFG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.22% on average per year.
AFG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.54% yearly.
EPS Next Y-5.58%
EPS Next 2Y5.27%
EPS Next 3Y4.22%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.44%
Revenue Next 2Y3.38%
Revenue Next 3Y2.54%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
AFG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAFG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2B 4B 6B 8B
AFG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAFG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2 4 6 8 10

4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.01, the valuation of AFG can be described as correct.
AFG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.50, AFG is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.70, the valuation of AFG can be described as very reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
AFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 36.44.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.01
Fwd PE 10.7
AFG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAFG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
AFG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 8.4
EV/EBITDA 9.9
AFG Per share dataAFG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.87
EPS Next 2Y5.27%
EPS Next 3Y4.22%

4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AFG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.51%.
AFG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.76. AFG pays more dividend than 89.66% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, AFG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.51%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of AFG grows each year by 13.64%, which is quite nice.
AFG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AFG has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
AFG Yearly Dividends per shareAFG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20 25

5.3 Sustainability

94.24% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFG. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AFG's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP94.24%
EPS Next 2Y5.27%
EPS Next 3Y4.22%
AFG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAFG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
AFG Dividend Payout.AFG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AFG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC

NYSE:AFG (7/18/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 127.46 0 (0%)

127.46

+0.12 (+0.09%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)05-06 2025-05-06/amc
Earnings (Next)08-05 2025-08-05/amc
Inst Owners66.31%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners17.94%
Ins Owner Change2.83%
Market Cap10.65B
Analysts70.91
Price Target134.44 (5.48%)
Short Float %2.35%
Short Ratio3.15
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.51%
Yearly Dividend9.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
DP94.24%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date07-15 2025-07-15 (0.8)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.01%
Min EPS beat(2)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(2)-0.4%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.94%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)3.61%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-4.36%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.06%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)9.47%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.8%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.57%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.02%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)11.93%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.8%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.9%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-3.08%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.03%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.93%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.01%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.87%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.78%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.57%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.01
Fwd PE 10.7
P/S 1.29
P/FCF 8.4
P/OCF 7.68
P/B 2.42
P/tB 2.74
EV/EBITDA 9.9
EPS(TTM)9.8
EY7.69%
EPS(NY)11.91
Fwd EY9.35%
FCF(TTM)15.17
FCFY11.9%
OCF(TTM)16.61
OCFY13.03%
SpS98.55
BVpS52.59
TBVpS46.56
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.87
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.64%
ROE 18.19%
ROCE 3.37%
ROIC 2.66%
ROICexc 2.78%
ROICexgc 3.05%
OM 12.29%
PM (TTM) 9.71%
GM N/A
FCFM 15.39%
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
ROICexc(3y)3.07%
ROICexc(5y)2.78%
ROICexgc(3y)3.35%
ROICexgc(5y)3.01%
ROCE(3y)3.73%
ROCE(5y)3.34%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.18%
ROICexcg growth 5Y16.37%
ROICexc growth 3Y-11.66%
ROICexc growth 5Y15.82%
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.34
Debt/FCF 1.16
Debt/EBITDA 1.35
Cap/Depr 144.58%
Cap/Sales 1.46%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 126.67%
Profit Quality 158.57%
Current Ratio 3.75
Quick Ratio 3.75
Altman-Z 0.8
F-Score6
WACC8.46%
ROIC/WACC0.31
Cap/Depr(3y)114.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)79.15%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.15%
Profit Quality(3y)152.16%
Profit Quality(5y)165.86%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.04%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%-34.42%
EPS Next Y-5.58%
EPS Next 2Y5.27%
EPS Next 3Y4.22%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.87%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%2.2%
Revenue Next Year0.44%
Revenue Next 2Y3.38%
Revenue Next 3Y2.54%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-8.99%
EBIT growth 3Y-8.95%
EBIT growth 5Y-2.09%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y29.68%
FCF growth 3Y-14.88%
FCF growth 5Y-15.83%
OCF growth 1Y31.72%
OCF growth 3Y-12.4%
OCF growth 5Y-14.05%