ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
62.68 USD
-0.55 (-0.87%)
62.68 USD
0 (0%)
AAP gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AAP have multiple concerns. AAP has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP has reported negative net income.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AAP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -3.62%, AAP is doing worse than 66.12% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP has a Return On Equity of -17.33%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 41.32% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.62% | ||
| ROE | -17.33% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP's Gross Margin of 37.06% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.06% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAP's Altman-Z score of 1.65 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 61.98% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68 indicates that AAP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.68, AAP is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.28% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP's Current ratio of 1.27 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 46.28% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Quick Ratio of 1.27. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio of 0.49. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 47.93% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -7600.00% in the last year.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -35.48% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 110.17% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.65% on average per year.
EPS Next Y792.38%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
EPS Next 5Y110.17%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.33%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.8%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.53, the valuation of AAP can be described as rather expensive.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
AAP is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.70, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 175.21% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.61%, AAP has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.21, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, AAP is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.7%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
62.68
-0.55 (-0.87%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners126.2%
Inst Owner Change-6.62%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.9%
Market Cap3.76B
Analysts55.56
Price Target54.72 (-12.7%)
Short Float %12.79%
Short Ratio3.55
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.7%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)46.08%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)73.31%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.72%
Min EPS beat(4)-108.05%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-69.23%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-53.04%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.06%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.47%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.34%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.11%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.53%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.44%
PT rev (1m)8.4%
PT rev (3m)18.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.4%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.69%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.62%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.85%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.53 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.71 | ||
| P/tB | 3.14 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)-0.75
EYN/A
EPS(NY)2.91
Fwd EY4.65%
FCF(TTM)-4.88
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.82
OCFYN/A
SpS145.67
BVpS36.73
TBVpS19.99
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.62% | ||
| ROE | -17.33% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.06% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.83
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 67.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
F-Score4
WACC9%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y792.38%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
EPS Next 5Y110.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.33%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.8%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-572.47%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year675.73%
EBIT Next 3Y127.31%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-164.5%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-143.83%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%