ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
49.48 USD
-0.84 (-1.67%)
49 USD
-0.48 (-0.97%)
AAP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAP has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had negative earnings in the past year.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AAP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -3.62%, AAP is doing worse than 63.93% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Return On Equity of -17.33% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 40.98% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.62% | ||
| ROE | -17.33% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Gross Margin value of 37.06%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.10% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.06% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AAP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.60. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAP's Altman-Z score of 1.60 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 63.11% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68 indicates that AAP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AAP has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.68) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.65%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Current ratio (1.27) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AAP has a Quick Ratio of 1.27. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -7600.00%.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -35.48% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 94.52% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y785.95%
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.39%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.81%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.45, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AAP is cheaper than 62.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.57. AAP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.45 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 175.01% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.61%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
In the last 3 months the price of AAP has falen by -20.91%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
AAP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 5.68.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, AAP is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
The dividend of AAP is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-15.7%
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
49.48
-0.84 (-1.67%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.12%
Market Cap2.97B
Analysts55.68
Price Target54.72 (10.59%)
Short Float %13.69%
Short Ratio4.07
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.7%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)46.08%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)73.31%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.72%
Min EPS beat(4)-108.05%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-69.23%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-53.04%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.06%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.47%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.34%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.11%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.53%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.44%
PT rev (1m)1.49%
PT rev (3m)14.81%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.84%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.72%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.74%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.45 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.35 | ||
| P/tB | 2.48 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)-0.75
EYN/A
EPS(NY)2.84
Fwd EY5.73%
FCF(TTM)-4.88
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.82
OCFYN/A
SpS145.67
BVpS36.73
TBVpS19.99
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.62% | ||
| ROE | -17.33% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.06% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.83
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 67.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score4
WACC8.65%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y785.95%
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.39%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.81%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-572.47%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-164.5%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-143.83%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%