ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
60.77 USD
+0.58 (+0.96%)
60.77 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 123 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAP is valued expensive and it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years AAP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -2.94%, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 62.60% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AAP has a Return On Equity of -14.19%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 42.28% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.94% | ||
| ROE | -14.19% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Gross Margin value of 38.69%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.54% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 38.69% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.92 indicates that AAP is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.92, AAP is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.09% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68. This is a neutral value indicating AAP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 46.34% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.82%
2.3 Liquidity
AAP has a Current Ratio of 1.27. This is a normal value and indicates that AAP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.27, AAP is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.53% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.49 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -7600.00%.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% yearly.
AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -1.25%.
AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.25%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 110.17% on average per year.
AAP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.50% yearly.
EPS Next Y792.38%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
EPS Next 5Y110.17%
Revenue Next Year-5.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.41%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.79%
Revenue Next 5Y0.5%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
AAP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.87.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AAP.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.67. AAP is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.87 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 175.21% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.80%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.70, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, AAP is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
The dividend of AAP is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-19.21%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
60.77
+0.58 (+0.96%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners126.2%
Inst Owner Change-6.62%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change11.79%
Market Cap3.64B
Analysts55.56
Price Target53.91 (-11.29%)
Short Float %13.95%
Short Ratio3.06
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-19.21%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)37.16%
Min EPS beat(2)1.01%
Max EPS beat(2)73.31%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-13.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-108.05%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-73.35%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-54.74%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.57%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.35%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.36%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.88%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.9%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.52%
PT rev (1m)10.33%
PT rev (3m)29.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)5.09%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-16.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.4%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.62%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.18%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.87 | ||
| P/S | 0.31 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.66 | ||
| P/tB | 3.06 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)-0.75
EYN/A
EPS(NY)2.91
Fwd EY4.79%
FCF(TTM)-4.13
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.23
OCFYN/A
SpS194.69
BVpS36.63
TBVpS19.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.94% | ||
| ROE | -14.19% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 38.69% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 60.73% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.49% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score5
WACC8.82%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y792.38%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
EPS Next 5Y110.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.25%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
Revenue Next Year-5.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.41%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.79%
Revenue Next 5Y0.5%
EBIT growth 1Y-392.8%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year675.73%
EBIT Next 3Y127.31%
EBIT Next 5Y59.81%
FCF growth 1Y-8448.21%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-118.6%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%