ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
48.67 USD
+1.2 (+2.53%)
48.67 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AAP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AAP was compared to 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
AAP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -3.12%, AAP is doing worse than 63.11% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of -17.17%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.80% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin of 37.60%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 54.92% of its industry peers.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has more shares outstanding
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.59. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.59, AAP is doing worse than 63.93% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 67.21% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.56%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.73, AAP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 74.59% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP's Quick ratio of 0.88 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 70.49% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -73.42%.
The earnings per share for AAP have been decreasing by -52.42% on average. This is quite bad
AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -33.50%.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
AAP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 92.83% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.66% on average per year.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 231.76, which means the current valuation is very expensive for AAP.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AAP.
AAP is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.06, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
AAP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.95.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AAP is cheaper than 61.48% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 32.73. AAP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 231.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AAP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.11%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.42, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
48.67
+1.2 (+2.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change0.04%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.1%
Market Cap2.92B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.22
Price Target54.96 (12.92%)
Short Float %13.05%
Short Ratio4.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.45%
PT rev (3m)8.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-17.79%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-40.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.09%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.25%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 231.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.95 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.33 | ||
| P/tB | 2.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.43%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.57%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.8
BVpS36.6
TBVpS19.92
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score3
WACC8.56%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-365.76%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.