ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
51.88 USD
+0.39 (+0.76%)
51.88 USD
0 (0%)
AAP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AAP have multiple concerns. AAP has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had positive earnings in the past year.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AAP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AAP's Return On Assets of -3.12% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 62.30% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AAP (-17.17%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin of 37.67%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 55.74% of its industry peers.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for AAP has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AAP has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.60. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.60, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 60.66% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 66.39% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.7%
2.3 Liquidity
AAP has a Current Ratio of 1.73. This is a normal value and indicates that AAP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a better Current ratio (1.73) than 75.41% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AAP (0.88) is better than 71.31% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -73.42% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% on average per year.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -33.50%.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 92.83% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.66% on average per year.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 247.05.
AAP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AAP to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.31), we can say AAP is valued expensively.
AAP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.14.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AAP is cheaper than 60.66% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 36.56.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 247.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.14 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.64, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.32, AAP has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
The dividend of AAP is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
51.88
+0.39 (+0.76%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change4.07%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change-1.47%
Market Cap3.11B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.22
Price Target55.27 (6.53%)
Short Float %14.95%
Short Ratio4.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)1.02%
PT rev (3m)2.53%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-10.62%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.12%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 247.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.14 | ||
| P/S | 0.36 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.42 | ||
| P/tB | 2.61 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.4%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.23%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.7
BVpS36.57
TBVpS19.91
PEG (NY)0.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score3
WACC8.7%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.