ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AAP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP has reported negative net income.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
AAP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AAP's Return On Assets of -2.94% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 64.46% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Return On Equity (-14.19%) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.94% | ||
| ROE | -14.19% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin of 38.69%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 57.85% of its industry peers.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 38.69% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.92. This is not the best score and indicates that AAP is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.92, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.15% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68 indicates that AAP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.68, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 46.28% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.85%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Current ratio (1.27) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.49 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -198.57% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% on average per year.
AAP shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 3.56%.
AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-198.57%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-132.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.56%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-24.17%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 112.84% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.27% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y855.59%
EPS Next 2Y301.16%
EPS Next 3Y189.98%
EPS Next 5Y112.84%
Revenue Next Year-6.33%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.7%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.94%
Revenue Next 5Y0.27%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.44 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AAP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAP is valued a bit cheaper than 60.33% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.76. AAP is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.44 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AAP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 189.98% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y301.16%
EPS Next 3Y189.98%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AAP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 4.99. AAP pays more dividend than 80.99% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-19.21%
EPS Next 2Y301.16%
EPS Next 3Y189.98%
62.56
+2.96 (+4.97%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners126%
Inst Owner Change-0.03%
Ins Owners0.89%
Ins Owner Change12.4%
Market Cap3.75B
Analysts55.56
Price Target47.66 (-23.82%)
Short Float %16.99%
Short Ratio3.12
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-19.21%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)37.16%
Min EPS beat(2)1.01%
Max EPS beat(2)73.31%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-13.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-108.05%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-73.35%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-54.74%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.57%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.35%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.36%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.88%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.9%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.52%
PT rev (1m)14.66%
PT rev (3m)14.66%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)24.11%
EPS NY rev (3m)21.99%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.43%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.44 | ||
| P/S | 0.32 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.71 | ||
| P/tB | 3.14 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)-0.69
EYN/A
EPS(NY)3.22
Fwd EY5.14%
FCF(TTM)-4.14
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.24
OCFYN/A
SpS194.85
BVpS36.66
TBVpS19.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.94% | ||
| ROE | -14.19% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 38.69% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 60.73% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.49% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score5
WACC8.85%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-198.57%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-132.84%
EPS Next Y855.59%
EPS Next 2Y301.16%
EPS Next 3Y189.98%
EPS Next 5Y112.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.56%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-24.17%
Revenue Next Year-6.33%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.7%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.94%
Revenue Next 5Y0.27%
EBIT growth 1Y-392.8%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year593.13%
EBIT Next 3Y122.67%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-8448.21%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-118.6%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%