ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
47.41 USD
+0.28 (+0.59%)
47.1999 USD
-0.21 (-0.44%)
Overall AAP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AAP against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AAP have multiple concerns. AAP does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP was profitable.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
AAP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -3.12%, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
With a Return On Equity value of -17.17%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.32% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin (37.60%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.58. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAP has a Altman-Z score of 1.58. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAP underperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the high side and indicates that AAP has dependencies on debt financing.
AAP has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.55) than 66.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.58 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AAP (1.73) is better than 75.21% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Quick Ratio of 1.73. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a better Quick ratio (0.88) than 71.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -73.42%.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -33.50% in the last year.
AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
AAP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 94.52% yearly.
AAP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.65% yearly.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 225.76, the valuation of AAP can be described as expensive.
AAP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.51. AAP is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.49, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAP.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AAP is cheaper than 61.98% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.53.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 225.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.49 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AAP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.12%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.50, AAP pays a better dividend. On top of this AAP pays more dividend than 80.17% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.12% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
The dividend of AAP is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
47.41
+0.28 (+0.59%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change-0.73%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.1%
Market Cap2.84B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376777000
Analysts56.22
Price Target54.96 (15.92%)
Short Float %13.05%
Short Ratio4.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.12% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.45%
PT rev (3m)12.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-33.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.64%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.64%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 225.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.49 | ||
| P/S | 0.33 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.3 | ||
| P/tB | 2.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.44%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.72%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.8
BVpS36.6
TBVpS19.92
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.58 |
F-Score3
WACC8.53%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-365.76%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.