ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
48.09 USD
+0.68 (+1.43%)
48 USD
-0.09 (-0.19%)
Overall AAP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AAP against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had positive earnings in the past year.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AAP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -3.12%, AAP is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -17.17%, AAP is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.32% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin (37.60%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for AAP has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AAP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.58. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAP has a worse Altman-Z score (1.58) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the high side and indicates that AAP has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.55, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 66.94% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.58 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.54%
2.3 Liquidity
AAP has a Current Ratio of 1.73. This is a normal value and indicates that AAP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a better Current ratio (1.73) than 75.21% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Quick Ratio of 1.73. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a better Quick ratio (0.88) than 71.07% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -73.42% in the last year.
The earnings per share for AAP have been decreasing by -52.42% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -33.50% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
AAP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 94.52% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.65% on average per year.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 229.00, the valuation of AAP can be described as expensive.
AAP's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AAP is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.03, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.74, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAP.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AAP is cheaper than 61.16% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAP to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.27), we can say AAP is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 229 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.11%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.48, AAP pays a better dividend. On top of this AAP pays more dividend than 80.17% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
The dividend of AAP is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
48.09
+0.68 (+1.43%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change-0.73%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.1%
Market Cap2.88B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376777000
Analysts56.22
Price Target54.96 (14.29%)
Short Float %13.05%
Short Ratio4.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.45%
PT rev (3m)12.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-33.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.64%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.64%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 229 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.74 | ||
| P/S | 0.33 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.31 | ||
| P/tB | 2.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.44%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.64%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.8
BVpS36.6
TBVpS19.92
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.58 |
F-Score3
WACC8.54%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-365.76%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.