13.93 USD
+0.47 (+3.49%)
13.95 USD
+0.02 (+0.14%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAL. AAL was compared to 22 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. While AAL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AAL is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAL had positive earnings in the past year.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AAL reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AAL has a better Return On Assets (0.97%) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
AAL's Return On Invested Capital of 4.48% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AAL is significantly below the industry average of 13.76%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.97% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 4.48% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAL's Profit Margin of 1.11% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
AAL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAL has a Operating Margin (4.22%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AAL has declined.
The Gross Margin of AAL (65.01%) is better than 77.27% of its industry peers.
AAL's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.11% | ||
| GM | 65.01% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AAL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AAL has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AAL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.71, we must say that AAL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAL has a Altman-Z score (0.71) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AAL is 32.56, which is on the high side as it means it would take AAL, 32.56 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 32.56, AAL is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 32.56 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.71 |
ROIC/WACC0.64
WACC6.97%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.54 indicates that AAL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAL has a Current ratio (0.54) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AAL has a Quick Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL's Quick ratio of 0.42 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 40.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAL have decreased strongly by -21.64% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AAL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -17.21% on average per year.
AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.27%.
Measured over the past years, AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
3.2 Future
AAL is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.02% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.20% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-58.72%
EPS Next 2Y-1.37%
EPS Next 3Y8.95%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue Next Year1.79%
Revenue Next 2Y3.98%
Revenue Next 3Y4.25%
Revenue Next 5Y3.2%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.27, AAL is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AAL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.73% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.15. AAL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.50, the valuation of AAL can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAL is valued cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.12, AAL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.5 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AAL indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AAL is cheaper than 63.64% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AAL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.23 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-1.37%
EPS Next 3Y8.95%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for AAL!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
13.93
+0.47 (+3.49%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners64.85%
Inst Owner Change6.95%
Ins Owners1.4%
Ins Owner Change2.58%
Market Cap9.19B
Revenue(TTM)54.29B
Net Income(TTM)602.00M
Analysts71.85
Price Target14.85 (6.6%)
Short Float %10.72%
Short Ratio1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.97%
Min EPS beat(2)20.33%
Max EPS beat(2)39.61%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)25.7%
Min EPS beat(4)9.67%
Max EPS beat(4)39.61%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)44.85%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)34.95%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.07%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.33%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)7.97%
PT rev (3m)8.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)91.46%
EPS NQ rev (3m)75.81%
EPS NY rev (1m)83.27%
EPS NY rev (3m)75.28%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.13%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.82%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.7%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.83%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.5 | ||
| P/S | 0.17 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.42 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.44 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.23 |
EPS(TTM)1.05
EY7.54%
EPS(NY)1.86
Fwd EY13.34%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY9.6%
OCF(TTM)5.72
OCFY41.03%
SpS82.28
BVpS-6
TBVpS-15.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.97% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 6.11% | ||
| ROIC | 4.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.6% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 4.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.11% | ||
| GM | 65.01% | ||
| FCFM | 1.62% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.89%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)8.52%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.55%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y2.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 32.56 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.69% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.32% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.31 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.51% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.71 |
F-Score7
WACC6.97%
ROIC/WACC0.64
Cap/Depr(3y)120.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)92.28%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
EPS Next Y-58.72%
EPS Next 2Y-1.37%
EPS Next 3Y8.95%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
Revenue Next Year1.79%
Revenue Next 2Y3.98%
Revenue Next 3Y4.25%
Revenue Next 5Y3.2%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.23%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-2.55%
EBIT Next Year26.07%
EBIT Next 3Y25.43%
EBIT Next 5Y26.85%
FCF growth 1Y-64.31%
FCF growth 3Y64.51%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.52%
OCF growth 3Y78.19%
OCF growth 5Y0.87%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC / AAL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAL.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AAL stock?
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is 13.27 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is -2.32.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is expected to decline by -58.72% in the next year.