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AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA - NASDAQ:AAL - US02376R1023 - Common Stock

12.965 USD
+0.19 (+1.45%)
Last: 10/31/2025, 1:10:08 PM
Fundamental Rating

3

Overall AAL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AAL against 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AAL while its profitability can be described as average. AAL has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AAL was profitable.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AAL reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years AAL 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
AAL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B -5B -10B

1.2 Ratios

AAL has a Return On Assets of 0.97%. This is in the better half of the industry: AAL outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
AAL's Return On Invested Capital of 4.48% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
AAL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.54%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.30%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.97%
ROE N/A
ROIC 4.48%
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -500 -1K

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of AAL (1.11%) is better than 61.90% of its industry peers.
AAL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAL's Operating Margin of 4.22% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 52.38% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AAL has declined.
AAL's Gross Margin of 65.01% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
AAL's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.22%
PM (TTM) 1.11%
GM 65.01%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
AAL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40 60 -60

1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AAL is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AAL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AAL has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AAL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AAL Yearly Shares OutstandingAAL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
AAL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.70, we must say that AAL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.70, AAL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.38% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AAL is 32.56, which is on the high side as it means it would take AAL, 32.56 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AAL's Debt to FCF ratio of 32.56 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 32.56
Altman-Z 0.7
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC6.83%
AAL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.54 indicates that AAL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAL has a Current ratio (0.54) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AAL has a Quick Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL has a Quick ratio of 0.42. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAL underperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.54
Quick Ratio 0.42
AAL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B 15B 20B

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AAL have decreased strongly by -21.64% in the last year.
AAL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -17.21% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.27% in the past year.
AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%

3.2 Future

AAL is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.02% yearly.
AAL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-77.48%
EPS Next 2Y-5.1%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue Next Year1.08%
Revenue Next 2Y3.56%
Revenue Next 3Y4.02%
Revenue Next 5Y3.28%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
AAL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20B 40B 60B
AAL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0 5 -5 -10 -15 -20

6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.35, which indicates a correct valuation of AAL.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AAL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.19, AAL is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.54, the valuation of AAL can be described as very cheap.
76.19% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAL, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
AAL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.35
Fwd PE 7.54
AAL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

61.90% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAL, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AAL is valued cheaper than 80.95% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.7
EV/EBITDA 5.06
AAL Per share dataAAL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-5.1%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for AAL!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC

NASDAQ:AAL (10/31/2025, 1:10:08 PM)

12.965

+0.19 (+1.45%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)10-23 2025-10-23/bmo
Earnings (Next)01-21 2026-01-21/amc
Inst Owners64.85%
Inst Owner Change0.37%
Ins Owners1.4%
Ins Owner Change7.53%
Market Cap8.55B
Revenue(TTM)54.29B
Net Income(TTM)602.00M
Analysts71.85
Price Target14.85 (14.54%)
Short Float %10.87%
Short Ratio0.93
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.97%
Min EPS beat(2)20.33%
Max EPS beat(2)39.61%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)25.7%
Min EPS beat(4)9.67%
Max EPS beat(4)39.61%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)44.85%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)34.95%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.07%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.33%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)1.25%
PT rev (3m)0.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.26%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-277.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)-33.53%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.14%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.12%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.04%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.35
Fwd PE 7.54
P/S 0.16
P/FCF 9.7
P/OCF 2.27
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.06
EPS(TTM)1.05
EY8.1%
EPS(NY)1.72
Fwd EY13.27%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY10.31%
OCF(TTM)5.72
OCFY44.08%
SpS82.28
BVpS-6
TBVpS-15.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.97%
ROE N/A
ROCE 6.11%
ROIC 4.48%
ROICexc 5.6%
ROICexgc 7.04%
OM 4.22%
PM (TTM) 1.11%
GM 65.01%
FCFM 1.62%
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.89%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)8.52%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.55%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y2.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 32.56
Debt/EBITDA 5.54
Cap/Depr 128.69%
Cap/Sales 5.32%
Interest Coverage 1.31
Cash Conversion 83.12%
Profit Quality 146.51%
Current Ratio 0.54
Quick Ratio 0.42
Altman-Z 0.7
F-Score7
WACC6.83%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)120.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)92.28%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
EPS Next Y-77.48%
EPS Next 2Y-5.1%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
Revenue Next Year1.08%
Revenue Next 2Y3.56%
Revenue Next 3Y4.02%
Revenue Next 5Y3.28%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.23%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-2.55%
EBIT Next Year26.07%
EBIT Next 3Y25.43%
EBIT Next 5Y25.86%
FCF growth 1Y-64.31%
FCF growth 3Y64.51%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.52%
OCF growth 3Y78.19%
OCF growth 5Y0.87%

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC / AAL FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAL.


What is the valuation status of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AAL stock?

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


What is the valuation of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is 12.35 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is -2.16.


What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is expected to decline by -77.48% in the next year.