AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:AAL • US02376R1023

Current stock price

12.1 USD
+0.32 (+2.72%)
At close:
12.0901 USD
-0.01 (-0.08%)
After Hours:

This AAL fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. AAL Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AAL was profitable.
  • AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Of the past 5 years AAL 4 years were profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years AAL had a positive operating cash flow.
AAL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B -5B -10B

1.2 Ratios

  • AAL's Return On Assets of 0.97% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Invested Capital value of 4.03%, AAL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AAL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.02%. This is significantly below the industry average of 28.23%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.97%
ROE N/A
ROIC 4.03%
ROA(3y)0.95%
ROA(5y)0.01%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.02%
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 -500 -1K

1.3 Margins

  • AAL has a Profit Margin (1.11%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AAL has declined.
  • AAL has a Operating Margin (4.22%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AAL has declined.
  • AAL's Gross Margin of 65.01% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
  • AAL's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.22%
PM (TTM) 1.11%
GM 65.01%
OM growth 3Y-6.82%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-7.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y8.11%
AAL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40 60 -60

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2

2. AAL Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • AAL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • AAL has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • AAL has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AAL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AAL Yearly Shares OutstandingAAL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
AAL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.69, we must say that AAL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • AAL has a Altman-Z score (0.69) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AAL is 32.56, which is on the high side as it means it would take AAL, 32.56 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • AAL has a Debt to FCF ratio (32.56) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 32.56
Altman-Z 0.69
ROIC/WACC0.64
WACC6.33%
AAL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AAL has a Current Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AAL has a Current ratio (0.54) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • AAL has a Quick Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of AAL (0.42) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.54
Quick Ratio 0.42
AAL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B 20B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. AAL Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for AAL have decreased strongly by -67.47% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past 5 years, AAL shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 5.27% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.78% in the past year.
  • AAL shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 25.80% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.47%
EPS 3Y5.27%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%32.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.78%
Revenue growth 3Y3.71%
Revenue growth 5Y25.8%
Sales Q2Q%10.84%

3.2 Future

  • AAL is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 45.76% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AAL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.05% on average per year.
EPS Next Y118.34%
EPS Next 2Y164.71%
EPS Next 3Y107.57%
EPS Next 5Y45.76%
Revenue Next Year10.94%
Revenue Next 2Y7.73%
Revenue Next 3Y6.73%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AAL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 20B 40B 60B
AAL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 -5 -10 -15 -20

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7

4. AAL Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.41, AAL is valued on the expensive side.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AAL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.64% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.42. AAL is around the same levels.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 4.93, the valuation of AAL can be described as very cheap.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAL indicates a rather cheap valuation: AAL is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAL to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.24), we can say AAL is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.41
Fwd PE 4.93
AAL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AAL indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AAL is cheaper than 68.18% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AAL is valued cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.06
EV/EBITDA 4.94
AAL Per share dataAAL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • AAL's earnings are expected to grow with 107.56% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y164.71%
EPS Next 3Y107.57%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. AAL Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for AAL!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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AAL Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC

NASDAQ:AAL (4/24/2026, 8:19:44 PM)

After market: 12.0901 -0.01 (-0.08%)

12.1

+0.32 (+2.72%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)04-23
Earnings (Next)N/A
Inst Owners71.08%
Inst Owner Change-0.02%
Ins Owners1.7%
Ins Owner Change12.4%
Market Cap7.99B
Revenue(TTM)54.63B
Net Income(TTM)602.00M
Analysts74
Price Target14.91 (23.22%)
Short Float %11.49%
Short Ratio1.12
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.97%
Min EPS beat(2)20.33%
Max EPS beat(2)39.61%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)25.7%
Min EPS beat(4)9.67%
Max EPS beat(4)39.61%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)44.85%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)34.95%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.07%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.33%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)-16.69%
PT rev (3m)-16%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)-64.14%
EPS NY rev (3m)-58.66%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.24%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.57%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.41
Fwd PE 4.93
P/S 0.15
P/FCF 9.06
P/OCF 2.12
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 4.94
EPS(TTM)0.54
EY4.46%
EPS(NY)2.45
Fwd EY20.27%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY11.04%
OCF(TTM)5.71
OCFY47.2%
SpS82.23
BVpS-6
TBVpS-15.28
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number0 (-100%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.97%
ROE N/A
ROCE 6.11%
ROIC 4.03%
ROICexc 5.03%
ROICexgc 6.33%
OM 4.22%
PM (TTM) 1.11%
GM 65.01%
FCFM 1.62%
ROA(3y)0.95%
ROA(5y)0.01%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.02%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.19%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.62%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y0.95%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y0.11%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-6.82%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-7.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y8.11%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 32.56
Debt/EBITDA 5.57
Cap/Depr 130.19%
Cap/Sales 5.32%
Interest Coverage 1.31
Cash Conversion 83.6%
Profit Quality 146.51%
Current Ratio 0.54
Quick Ratio 0.42
Altman-Z 0.69
F-Score7
WACC6.33%
ROIC/WACC0.64
Cap/Depr(3y)135%
Cap/Depr(5y)109.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.82%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.47%
EPS 3Y5.27%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%32.2%
EPS Next Y118.34%
EPS Next 2Y164.71%
EPS Next 3Y107.57%
EPS Next 5Y45.76%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.78%
Revenue growth 3Y3.71%
Revenue growth 5Y25.8%
Sales Q2Q%10.84%
Revenue Next Year10.94%
Revenue Next 2Y7.73%
Revenue Next 3Y6.73%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.23%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.36%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year149.36%
EBIT Next 3Y53.41%
EBIT Next 5Y27.09%
FCF growth 1Y259.78%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y68.8%
OCF growth 3Y12.56%
OCF growth 5YN/A

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC / AAL Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AAL.


Can you provide the valuation status for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL). This can be considered as Undervalued.


How profitable is AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for AAL stock?

The financial health rating of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is 2 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AAL stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is expected to grow by 118.34% in the next year.