AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:AAL - US02376R1023 - Common Stock
12.965 USD
+0.19 (+1.45%)
Overall AAL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AAL against 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AAL while its profitability can be described as average. AAL has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAL was profitable.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AAL reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years AAL 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AAL has a Return On Assets of 0.97%. This is in the better half of the industry: AAL outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
AAL's Return On Invested Capital of 4.48% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
AAL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.54%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.30%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.97% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 4.48% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AAL (1.11%) is better than 61.90% of its industry peers.
AAL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAL's Operating Margin of 4.22% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 52.38% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AAL has declined.
AAL's Gross Margin of 65.01% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
AAL's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.11% | ||
| GM | 65.01% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AAL is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AAL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AAL has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AAL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.70, we must say that AAL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.70, AAL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.38% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AAL is 32.56, which is on the high side as it means it would take AAL, 32.56 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AAL's Debt to FCF ratio of 32.56 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 32.56 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.7 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC6.83%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.54 indicates that AAL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAL has a Current ratio (0.54) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AAL has a Quick Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL has a Quick ratio of 0.42. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAL underperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAL have decreased strongly by -21.64% in the last year.
AAL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -17.21% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.27% in the past year.
AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
3.2 Future
AAL is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.02% yearly.
AAL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-77.48%
EPS Next 2Y-5.1%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue Next Year1.08%
Revenue Next 2Y3.56%
Revenue Next 3Y4.02%
Revenue Next 5Y3.28%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.35, which indicates a correct valuation of AAL.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AAL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.19, AAL is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.54, the valuation of AAL can be described as very cheap.
76.19% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAL, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
AAL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
61.90% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAL, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AAL is valued cheaper than 80.95% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-5.1%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for AAL!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
NASDAQ:AAL (10/31/2025, 1:10:08 PM)
12.965
+0.19 (+1.45%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners64.85%
Inst Owner Change0.37%
Ins Owners1.4%
Ins Owner Change7.53%
Market Cap8.55B
Revenue(TTM)54.29B
Net Income(TTM)602.00M
Analysts71.85
Price Target14.85 (14.54%)
Short Float %10.87%
Short Ratio0.93
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.97%
Min EPS beat(2)20.33%
Max EPS beat(2)39.61%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)25.7%
Min EPS beat(4)9.67%
Max EPS beat(4)39.61%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)44.85%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)34.95%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.07%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.33%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)1.25%
PT rev (3m)0.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.26%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-277.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)-33.53%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.14%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.12%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.16 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.7 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.27 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.06 |
EPS(TTM)1.05
EY8.1%
EPS(NY)1.72
Fwd EY13.27%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY10.31%
OCF(TTM)5.72
OCFY44.08%
SpS82.28
BVpS-6
TBVpS-15.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.97% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 6.11% | ||
| ROIC | 4.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.6% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 4.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.11% | ||
| GM | 65.01% | ||
| FCFM | 1.62% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.89%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)8.52%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.55%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y2.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 32.56 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.69% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.32% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.31 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.51% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.7 |
F-Score7
WACC6.83%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)120.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)92.28%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
EPS Next Y-77.48%
EPS Next 2Y-5.1%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
Revenue Next Year1.08%
Revenue Next 2Y3.56%
Revenue Next 3Y4.02%
Revenue Next 5Y3.28%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.23%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-2.55%
EBIT Next Year26.07%
EBIT Next 3Y25.43%
EBIT Next 5Y25.86%
FCF growth 1Y-64.31%
FCF growth 3Y64.51%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.52%
OCF growth 3Y78.19%
OCF growth 5Y0.87%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC / AAL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAL.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AAL stock?
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is 12.35 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is -2.16.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is expected to decline by -77.48% in the next year.