AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:AAL - Nasdaq - US02376R1023 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AAL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AAL against 22 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. AAL has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAL is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAL was profitable.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AAL reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Of the past 5 years AAL 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AAL has a Return On Assets (0.89%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AAL's Return On Invested Capital of 5.37% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AAL is below the industry average of 9.65%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.89% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 5.37% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAL has a Profit Margin of 1.05%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAL outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AAL has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 5.12%, AAL is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
AAL's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 64.95%, AAL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAL has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.05% | ||
| GM | 64.95% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AAL has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AAL has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AAL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AAL has an Altman-Z score of 0.72. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAL's Altman-Z score of 0.72 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AAL is 19.12, which is on the high side as it means it would take AAL, 19.12 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AAL has a better Debt to FCF ratio (19.12) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 19.12 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.72 |
ROIC/WACC0.78
WACC6.93%
2.3 Liquidity
AAL has a Current Ratio of 0.58. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL has a Current ratio of 0.58. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAL outperforms 45.45% of its industry peers.
AAL has a Quick Ratio of 0.58. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL has a Quick ratio of 0.48. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAL underperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.58 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAL shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 7.04%.
Measured over the past years, AAL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -17.21% on average per year.
AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.50%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.04%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-12.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.5%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.4%
3.2 Future
AAL is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.02% yearly.
AAL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.27% yearly.
EPS Next Y-66.12%
EPS Next 2Y-1.76%
EPS Next 3Y8.7%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue Next Year1.04%
Revenue Next 2Y3.52%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y3.27%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 8.66, the valuation of AAL can be described as very reasonable.
AAL's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AAL is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
AAL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.87, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.14 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AAL.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAL indicates a rather cheap valuation: AAL is cheaper than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AAL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 35.34, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.14 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AAL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AAL is valued cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.56 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-1.76%
EPS Next 3Y8.7%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for AAL!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
13.17
+0.35 (+2.73%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners67.43%
Inst Owner Change-0.09%
Ins Owners1.35%
Ins Owner Change10.25%
Market Cap8.69B
Analysts73.57
Price Target13.71 (4.1%)
Short Float %10.2%
Short Ratio1.12
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)15%
Min EPS beat(2)9.67%
Max EPS beat(2)20.33%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.19%
Min EPS beat(4)9.67%
Max EPS beat(4)89.57%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)46.06%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)33.46%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)25.94%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.87%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.33%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.61%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.54%
PT rev (1m)1.18%
PT rev (3m)4.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-399.54%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-150.02%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-56.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.55%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.91%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.14 | ||
| P/S | 0.16 | ||
| P/FCF | 5.56 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.12 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
EPS(TTM)1.52
EY11.54%
EPS(NY)1.84
Fwd EY14%
FCF(TTM)2.37
FCFY17.99%
OCF(TTM)6.2
OCFY47.11%
SpS82.22
BVpS-5.87
TBVpS-15.16
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.89% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 7.33% | ||
| ROIC | 5.37% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.12% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.06% | ||
| OM | 5.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.05% | ||
| GM | 64.95% | ||
| FCFM | 2.88% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.89%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)8.52%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.55%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y2.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 19.12 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.03 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 112.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.55 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 81.52% | ||
| Profit Quality | 275.66% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.58 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.72 |
F-Score7
WACC6.93%
ROIC/WACC0.78
Cap/Depr(3y)120.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)92.28%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.04%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-12.84%
EPS Next Y-66.12%
EPS Next 2Y-1.76%
EPS Next 3Y8.7%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.5%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.4%
Revenue Next Year1.04%
Revenue Next 2Y3.52%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y3.27%
EBIT growth 1Y-2.7%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-2.55%
EBIT Next Year25.83%
EBIT Next 3Y25.12%
EBIT Next 5Y28.36%
FCF growth 1Y-10.99%
FCF growth 3Y64.51%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-5.78%
OCF growth 3Y78.19%
OCF growth 5Y0.87%