15.33 USD
+0.19 (+1.25%)
15.32 USD
-0.01 (-0.07%)
AAL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AAL while its profitability can be described as average. AAL has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAL had positive earnings in the past year.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AAL reported negative net income in multiple years.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 0.97%, AAL is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
AAL has a better Return On Invested Capital (4.48%) than 68.18% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AAL is below the industry average of 8.38%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.97% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 4.48% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AAL (1.11%) is better than 63.64% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AAL has declined.
AAL has a Operating Margin (4.22%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AAL's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAL has a better Gross Margin (65.01%) than 77.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAL has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.11% | ||
| GM | 65.01% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AAL is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAL has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AAL has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AAL has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.71, we must say that AAL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAL has a Altman-Z score (0.71) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AAL has a debt to FCF ratio of 32.56. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AAL would need 32.56 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AAL has a better Debt to FCF ratio (32.56) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 32.56 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.71 |
ROIC/WACC0.62
WACC7.17%
2.3 Liquidity
AAL has a Current Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL has a Current ratio (0.54) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.42 indicates that AAL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AAL (0.42) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -21.64%.
AAL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -17.21% yearly.
AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.27%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 17.02% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, AAL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.20% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-67.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.62%
EPS Next 3Y10.45%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue Next Year1.59%
Revenue Next 2Y4.07%
Revenue Next 3Y4.37%
Revenue Next 5Y3.2%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 14.60 indicates a correct valuation of AAL.
AAL's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AAL is cheaper than 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.84, AAL is valued a bit cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.29, the valuation of AAL can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.45% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AAL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.29 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AAL is valued a bit cheaper than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
81.82% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAL, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.47 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-1.62%
EPS Next 3Y10.45%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAL does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
15.33
+0.19 (+1.25%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners70.27%
Inst Owner Change6.95%
Ins Owners1.38%
Ins Owner Change0.72%
Market Cap10.12B
Revenue(TTM)54.29B
Net Income(TTM)602.00M
Analysts71.85
Price Target15.92 (3.85%)
Short Float %7.98%
Short Ratio0.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.97%
Min EPS beat(2)20.33%
Max EPS beat(2)39.61%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)25.7%
Min EPS beat(4)9.67%
Max EPS beat(4)39.61%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)44.85%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)34.95%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.07%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.33%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)7.22%
PT rev (3m)17.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-29.22%
EPS NQ rev (3m)25.56%
EPS NY rev (1m)-20.79%
EPS NY rev (3m)45.93%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.81%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.63%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.29 | ||
| P/S | 0.19 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.47 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.68 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
EPS(TTM)1.05
EY6.85%
EPS(NY)1.85
Fwd EY12.06%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY8.72%
OCF(TTM)5.71
OCFY37.27%
SpS82.25
BVpS-6
TBVpS-15.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.97% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 6.11% | ||
| ROIC | 4.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.6% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 4.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.11% | ||
| GM | 65.01% | ||
| FCFM | 1.62% |
ROA(3y)0.96%
ROA(5y)-2.89%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)5.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.89%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)8.52%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.55%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y2.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.79%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-15.78%
GM growth 3Y3.63%
GM growth 5Y0.67%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 32.56 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.69% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.32% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.31 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.51% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.71 |
F-Score7
WACC7.17%
ROIC/WACC0.62
Cap/Depr(3y)120.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)92.28%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-17.21%
EPS Q2Q%-156.67%
EPS Next Y-67.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.62%
EPS Next 3Y10.45%
EPS Next 5Y17.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.27%
Revenue growth 3Y21.96%
Revenue growth 5Y3.44%
Sales Q2Q%0.32%
Revenue Next Year1.59%
Revenue Next 2Y4.07%
Revenue Next 3Y4.37%
Revenue Next 5Y3.2%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.23%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-2.55%
EBIT Next Year30.87%
EBIT Next 3Y24.28%
EBIT Next 5Y27.46%
FCF growth 1Y-64.31%
FCF growth 3Y64.51%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.52%
OCF growth 3Y78.19%
OCF growth 5Y0.87%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC / AAL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAL.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AAL stock?
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is 14.6 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is -2.55.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) is expected to decline by -67.3% in the next year.