Thursday’s session kept the broader uptrend intact, with small-caps extending their leadership and market participation improving beneath the surface. Daily breadth cooled compared to Wednesday’s “strong thrust” type readings, but the important takeaway is that more stocks are migrating back above key moving averages, while new lows remain scarce—a constructive combination for trend continuation.
Index overview (SPY, QQQ, IWM)
Short Term (Daily)
Long Term (Weekly)
SPY
SPY remains in an uptrend and is holding near the upper end of its range, closing around 688.98 with both EMA9 and EMA21 underneath and rising. After the prior day’s strength, Thursday looked more like consolidation near highs than distribution.
Takeaway: Trend is intact; the market is digesting gains rather than giving them back.
QQQ
QQQ closed around 620.76 and continues to stall below overhead resistance (the chart highlights a supply zone into the high-620s/630s and up toward ~637). The EMA9/EMA21 are tight and relatively flat, reflecting the ongoing sideways chop.
Takeaway: Tech is not breaking down, but it’s also not leading—a mild drag on headline momentum versus Wednesday’s stronger tone.
IWM
IWM remains the clear leader, closing near 269.79 and pushing further above the rising EMA9 and EMA21. The move is directional and persistent, with price extending away from prior congestion.
Takeaway: This is what healthy risk appetite looks like—small-caps are acting as the market’s engine right now.
Breadth dashboard: what changed vs. Wednesday?
Daily breadth cooled, but stayed net-positive
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Advancing issues: 66.5% (down from 76.4%)
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Declining issues: 30.6% (up from 21.3%)
So the “rush” from Wednesday eased, but we’re still in more-advancers-than-decliners territory, consistent with a market that is pausing near highs, not rolling over.
Participation improved meaningfully (the bullish part)
The biggest positive shift is the jump in stocks above key moving averages:
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Above SMA(20): 68.9% (from 64.0%)
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Above SMA(50): 68.5% (from 65.9%)
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Above SMA(100): 59.8% (from 58.2%)
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Above SMA(200): 63.6% (from 62.8%)
This matters because it suggests the rally is spreading beyond a narrow group of names. Even with less daily thrust than Wednesday, the market did real “repair work” internally.
New highs expanded; new lows stayed muted
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New Highs (NH): 13.7% (from 9.9%)
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New Lows (NL): 0.7% (from 1.7%)
That’s a very constructive profile: more breakouts, fewer breakdowns.
Multi-day trends remain supportive
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Weekly breadth: 56.7% adv / 42.1% decl (slightly improved)
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Monthly breadth: 68.7% adv / 30.5% decl (still strong)
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3-month breadth: 54.6% adv / 44.5% decl (gradually improving)
The longer windows continue to point to a market where buyers still control the intermediate trend, even if day-to-day momentum fluctuates.
The “big-move” stats cooled a bit
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Advancing >4%: 6.4% (from 9.1%)
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Declining >4%: 1.2% (from 2.5%)
This looks like a cooling of momentum rather than a negative reversal—fewer explosive winners, but also fewer large losers.
Weekly trend backdrop (ChartMill Trend Indicator)
All three index ETFs still show a green (positive) long-term trend on the weekly view. The key nuance is leadership:
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IWM is extending cleanly in the direction of the trend.
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SPY is tight near highs, constructive.
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QQQ is the laggard, capped by resistance, but not breaking trend.
What’s the story vs. yesterday’s breadth read?
Wednesday had a stronger “headline” breadth thrust (very high advancing share). Thursday didn’t repeat that intensity, but it did something arguably healthier: it broadened participation via moving-average improvements and an uptick in new highs.
In other words; momentum cooled, but the foundation strengthened, especially with small-caps continuing to lead.
Breadth trend rating (1–7)
6 — Positive
The market is not in a perfect “all cylinders firing” mode because QQQ is still range-bound and daily breadth eased. But with broad participation rising, new lows near zero, and weekly/monthly trends supportive, the overall breadth picture remains clearly constructive.
Kristoff
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