After Thursday’s heavy selling, Friday delivered a broad-based snapback with a clear breadth thrust. Small caps led, the S&P 500 reclaimed short-term support, and new highs expanded again. Still, the Nasdaq remains technically “neutral” on the weekly view, and the week’s whipsaw keeps the overall backdrop neutral with a negative bias rather than outright bullish.
Index overview (SPY, QQQ, IWM)
Short Term (Daily)
Long Term (Weekly)
SPY
Friday’s rebound was constructive: SPY closed back above its EMA9/EMA21 and pushed into the upper part of its recent range. That helps repair the technical damage from Thursday’s selloff and confirms buyers are still defending the prior breakout zone.
On the weekly chart, SPY remains in a positive long-term trend (Trend Indicator rising well below price). The only caveat: price is pressing into overhead resistance again, so follow-through matters, without it, this can quickly turn into another “range snapback” rather than the start of a clean leg higher.
QQQ
QQQ bounced strongly on the day, but the daily close still sits below the EMA9 and EMA21, which keeps the short-term tone more cautious than SPY/IWM. In other words: good response, but not yet a technical reset.
On the weekly chart, the Trend Indicator remains neutral, and price is still trapped in a choppy consolidation near overhead supply. Compared to Thursday’s picture, this was a meaningful recovery, but QQQ still needs to reclaim its short-term moving averages (and hold them) before the “neutral” stance can lean convincingly positive.
IWM
IWM was the clear leader. The ETF surged and reclaimed both short-term EMAs on the daily chart, flipping the short-term structure back in the bulls’ favor. This is also an important behavioral shift versus Thursday: instead of continued distribution, we saw aggressive dip-buying in the more economically sensitive/smaller names.
On the weekly timeframe, IWM remains in a positive long-term trend, and price is holding well above the Trend Indicator. If this leadership persists, it would be a meaningful support for broader market breadth in the coming sessions.
Market breadth (10-day view)
Friday delivered a textbook breadth “snapback” after Thursday’s breakdown:
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Advancers surged to 82.3% (vs 25.8% Thursday). Clearly not just a green day, it’s a breadth thrust type of reading.
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Strong advancers (Adv >4%) jumped to 10.4%, while Decl >4% collapsed to 1.3%. That’s a big swing in upside participation.
Participation improved across key trend measures:
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SMA(20)+ rose to 53.5% (from 40.9%) → short-term damage partially repaired
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SMA(50)+ at 59.7% remains healthy, suggesting the intermediate-term uptrend still has a base
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SMA(200)+ at 60.1% confirms the long-term backdrop is still broadly intact
The market also expanded new highs again (NH 11.3%) while new lows stayed muted (NL 1.8%), a constructive “risk-on” footprint for the day.
Zooming out slightly, the context still matters:
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Weekly breadth is only back to “balanced” (Adv Week 54.4% vs Decl Week 44.5%). That’s improvement, but not a runaway upside week.
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Monthly and 3-month participation remain positive, but dispersion is elevated: 14% of stocks are still up >25% over 3 months, while 11.5% are down >25%, a reminder that this remains a selective, volatile tape rather than a smooth broad advance.
What changed vs. Thursday?
Thursday looked like sellers were taking control again; Friday didn’t erase that risk, but it did show that demand is still strong enough to force sharp reversals when price gets stretched to the downside.
The key message from the data is: this market can still rally broadly, but it’s doing so in violent swings, not in a calm trend, especially visible in QQQ’s recent weekly neutrality.
Breadth Trend Rating
Breadth trend rating: 4 - Neutral
Friday delivered a clear breadth thrust and helped repair Thursday’s technical damage, especially with SPY and IWM reclaiming their short-term trend structure.
That said, this remains a fragile neutral: QQQ still hasn’t fully confirmed on the daily (below its EMA9/EMA21) and its weekly trend stays neutral, so the market likely needs follow-through to turn this into a more durable upswing rather than just another sharp snapback inside a volatile range.
Kristoff - ChartMill
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