(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)
Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 30, 2025 (After Market Close)
SPY and QQQ close to ATM-levels
Short Term Trend
- Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Next Support at $660 - $650
- Next Resistance at $667
- Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
- Pattern: Up Day - Bullish Engulfing - Close to Resistance
- Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Next Support at $590
- Next Resistance at $603
- Volume: At Average (50)
- Pattern: Up Day - Bullish Engulfing
- Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Next Support at $235
- Next Resistance at $245
- Volume: At Average (50)
- Pattern: Up Day - Doji Candle
Long Term Trend
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)
Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 30, 2025 (After Market Close)
After Monday’s solid uptick, Tuesday’s breadth eased but stayed constructive. Daily advancers remained just over 50%, “above-MA” gauges slipped marginally, and the weekly window is still net-negative though improving. Net takeaway: stabilization continues, but momentum flattened.
Daily pulse (Tue, Sep 30, 2025):
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Advancers vs. decliners: 52.5% vs. 44.3%, a mild positive session, softer than Monday’s 55%/42.4%.
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Thrust (±4% movers): Adv 2.8% vs. Decl 3.1%, no upside thrust; buyers weren’t aggressive.
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New highs/lows: NH 4.9% vs. NL 1.6%, healthy spread, a touch softer than Monday (5.2%/1.6%).
Percent above key MAs:
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20-day: 53.4% (↓ from 54.5%)
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50-day: 64.4% (↓ from 65.2%)
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100-day: 67.6% (↓ from 68.0%)
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200-day: 62.9% (≈ from 63.0%)
These small dips say breadth held up but didn’t extend Monday’s improvement.
Context vs. prior days:
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Friday (Sep 26) delivered a strong bounce after Thursday’s washout (Sep 25: only 22.5% advancers).
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Monday (Sep 29) showed broad participation and better thrust.
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Tuesday moderated: participation stayed positive but momentum faded, consistent with typical “day-two/three” digestion after a sharp reversal.
Multi-day windows:
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Weekly: Adv 44.6% vs. Decl 54.2% - still negative, but better than Monday’s 38.1%/60.8%.
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Monthly: Adv 63.3% vs. Decl 36.2% - solidly positive and improved from 59.6%/39.7%.
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3-Month: Adv 64.6% vs. Decl 34.5% - broadly supportive and little changed.
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Pocket pivots / participation (PP): 23.2% (↑ from 20.1%) — subtle improvement in accumulation-type prints despite the softer session.
What it means:
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Short-term: Buyers remain present (advancers >50%, NH>NL), but lack of thrust and modest slippage in “% above MAs” argue for consolidation rather than surge.
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Intermediate: The weekly window is still in repair mode (net-negative), whereas monthly/3-month breadth remains a tailwind.
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Risk gauge: New lows contained (1.6%) and the 200-day participation steady (~63%) keep downside pressure in check for now.
Bottom line trend rating: neutral with a positive bias.
Stability persists and intermediate structure is constructive, but until weekly breadth flips positive or we see renewed thrust (higher ±4% advancers, expanding NH), upside follow-through likely remains gradual rather than impulsive.
Kristoff - ChartMill
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