Breadth Check: Rebound Cools but Structure Holds

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 30, 2025 (After Market Close)

SPY and QQQ close to ATM-levels

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $660 - $650
• Next Resistance at $667
• Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Bullish Engulfing - Close to Resistance

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $590
• Next Resistance at $603
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Bullish Engulfing

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Doji Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 30, 2025 (After Market Close)

After Monday’s solid uptick, Tuesday’s breadth eased but stayed constructive. Daily advancers remained just over 50%, “above-MA” gauges slipped marginally, and the weekly window is still net-negative though improving. Net takeaway: stabilization continues, but momentum flattened.

Daily pulse (Tue, Sep 30, 2025):

• Advancers vs. decliners: 52.5% vs. 44.3%, a mild positive session, softer than Monday’s 55%/42.4%.

• Thrust (±4% movers): Adv 2.8% vs. Decl 3.1%, no upside thrust; buyers weren’t aggressive.

• New highs/lows: NH 4.9% vs. NL 1.6%, healthy spread, a touch softer than Monday (5.2%/1.6%).

Percent above key MAs:

• 20-day: 53.4% (↓ from 54.5%)

• 50-day: 64.4% (↓ from 65.2%)

• 100-day: 67.6% (↓ from 68.0%)

• 200-day: 62.9% (≈ from 63.0%)

These small dips say breadth held up but didn’t extend Monday’s improvement.

Context vs. prior days:

• Friday (Sep 26) delivered a strong bounce after Thursday’s washout (Sep 25: only 22.5% advancers).

• Monday (Sep 29) showed broad participation and better thrust.

• Tuesday moderated: participation stayed positive but momentum faded, consistent with typical “day-two/three” digestion after a sharp reversal.

Multi-day windows:

• Weekly: Adv 44.6% vs. Decl 54.2% - still negative, but better than Monday’s 38.1%/60.8%.

• Monthly: Adv 63.3% vs. Decl 36.2% - solidly positive and improved from 59.6%/39.7%.

• 3-Month: Adv 64.6% vs. Decl 34.5% - broadly supportive and little changed.

• Pocket pivots / participation (PP): 23.2% (↑ from 20.1%) — subtle improvement in accumulation-type prints despite the softer session.

What it means:

• Short-term: Buyers remain present (advancers >50%, NH>NL), but lack of thrust and modest slippage in “% above MAs” argue for consolidation rather than surge.

• Intermediate: The weekly window is still in repair mode (net-negative), whereas monthly/3-month breadth remains a tailwind.

• Risk gauge: New lows contained (1.6%) and the 200-day participation steady (~63%) keep downside pressure in check for now.

Bottom line trend rating: neutral with a positive bias.

Stability persists and intermediate structure is constructive, but until weekly breadth flips positive or we see renewed thrust (higher ±4% advancers, expanding NH), upside follow-through likely remains gradual rather than impulsive.

---

Kristoff - ChartMill

Next to read: Wall Street Climbs Despite Shutdown Risk — Pfizer and CoreWeave Shine Bright