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Market Monitor Trends (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and Breadth May 15

By Kristoff De Turck - reviewed by Aldwin Keppens

Last update: May 15, 2025

ChartMill Market Monitor Report Trends and Breadth

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – May 14, 2025 (After Market Close)

The overall short-term market trend remains bullish, as all three major index ETFs, SPY, QQQ and IWM, continue to hold above key support levels, despite mixed intraday performances.

The long-term trend remains neutral overall, although QQQ continues to stand out with a positive long-term trend. Both SPY and IWM remain in neutral territory, reflecting the broader market’s hesitance to break decisively into new high ground.

Short Term Trend

ChartMill US Indices Performance daily

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

  • Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
  • Support at $560 - $570
  • Resistance at $610
  • Volume: At average (50)
  • Pattern: Inside day

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

  • Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
  • Support at $490 - $500
  • Resistance at $540
  • Volume: At average (50)
  • Pattern: Follow-through day

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

  • Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
  • Support at $200
  • Resistance at $210-215
  • Volume: Below average (50)
  • Pattern: Down day

Long Term Trend

ChartMill US Indices Performance weekly

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

  • Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

  • Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

  • Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – May 14, 2025 (After Market Close)

ChartMill US Indices Performance weekly

Overall Trend: Momentum Weakening After Strong Run

The market breadth data from May 2 through May 14, 2025, shows that bullish momentum, which was strong in early May, began to wane significantly by mid-month. A short-term pullback is evident as advancing breadth numbers declined sharply over the last two sessions.

Day-to-Day Breadth Breakdown

Strong Breadth Days

  • May 2, May 8, May 12 stand out with robust advancing day percentages (78.1%, 65.5%, and 75.4% respectively), supported by strong figures in advancing 4% days (8.2%, 10%, and 20.9%).

  • These days also saw high participation above key moving averages (SMA20+, SMA50+, etc.), with May 2 showing 85% of stocks above their 20-day MA — indicative of broad market strength.

Breadth Deterioration Emerging

  • May 13 and May 14 marked a clear shift in momentum:

  • May 14 had only 32.1% advancing stocks and a very low 2.6% hitting 4% gains.

  • 65.4% of stocks declined, with nearly 71% of stocks having declined over the past 3 months.

  • Decliners significantly outnumbered advancers, and participation across all SMAs weakened.

Market Breadth advace vs decline days

Weekly and Monthly Trends

Strong Weekly Breadth (Earlier Period)

-Between May 2–9, the Advancing Week percentage remained above 50%, peaking at 71.8% on May 12.

  • Monthly Advance Breadth held up well during this stretch, with peaks at 88.6% (May 7) and 86.4% (May 9) — signaling broad strength and follow-through from April’s gains.

Weekly Breadth Rolls Over

  • On May 14, the weekly advance rate dipped to 69.2%, down from 74.1% on May 13 and 85.7% earlier, reflecting a slowing pace of upward movement.

Key Technical Levels and Breadth

SMA Participation:

  • The percentage of stocks above the 20-day SMA dropped from 85% (May 2) to 72.4% (May 14).

  • More notably, stocks above the 200-day SMA declined to 39.1% (May 14) from 30.4% (May 2), showing longer-term strength is lagging behind short-term rallies.

Market Breadth sma participation

New Highs vs New Lows:

  • New Highs (NH) remain very low (around 1.7–3.2%), not confirming strength at index highs.

  • New Lows (NL) have stayed relatively muted but ticked up slightly on May 14 to 1.4%, suggesting slight internal deterioration.

Red Flags: 3-Month Breadth Weakness

  • Despite short-term rallies, Declining 3-Month Breadth remains high:

  • Around 70–73% of stocks are still in a 3-month decline.

Market Breadth weekly vs 3month
  • Only 3.4–4.0% of stocks advanced more than 25% in the last 3 months — indicating that leadership is narrow and the broader market is not participating in the upside with conviction.

Conclusion: Fragile Momentum Amid a Pullback

The market experienced broad strength earlier in May, with widespread participation and bullish signals across moving averages and advance/decline metrics.

By May 13–14, breadth deteriorated significantly, with more than 65% of stocks declining and key momentum metrics rolling over.

While some longer-term measures still reflect strength, the short-term internal weakness suggests the market could be due for further consolidation or a deeper pullback, unless leadership broadens again.

ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF

NYSEARCA:IWM (6/11/2025, 11:43:09 AM)

215.38

+0.87 (+0.41%)


INVESCO QQQ TRUST SERIES 1

NASDAQ:QQQ (6/11/2025, 11:43:10 AM)

535.41

+1.2 (+0.22%)


SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST

NYSEARCA:SPY (6/11/2025, 11:43:10 AM)

603.941

+0.86 (+0.14%)



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