XPO INC (XPO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:XPO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US9837931008 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to XPO. XPO was compared to 39 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. While XPO belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, XPO is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year XPO was profitable.
In the past year XPO had a positive cash flow from operations.
XPO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
XPO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
XPO has a better Return On Assets (4.94%) than 64.10% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 23.72%, XPO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.18% of the companies in the same industry.
XPO's Return On Invested Capital of 8.54% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 69.23% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for XPO is in line with the industry average of 8.06%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.54%) for XPO is above the 3 year average (7.94%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.94% | ||
| ROE | 23.72% | ||
| ROIC | 8.54% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.5%
ROE(3y)34.97%
ROE(5y)27.47%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)5.64%
1.3 Margins
XPO's Profit Margin of 4.86% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 71.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
XPO has a better Operating Margin (8.67%) than 71.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
XPO has a Gross Margin of 59.63%. This is in the better half of the industry: XPO outperforms 69.23% of its industry peers.
XPO's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 8.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.86% | ||
| GM | 59.63% |
OM growth 3Y28.41%
OM growth 5Y12.76%
PM growth 3Y0.91%
PM growth 5Y6.2%
GM growth 3Y17.98%
GM growth 5Y13.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so XPO is destroying value.
XPO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for XPO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, XPO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.81 indicates that XPO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
XPO has a Altman-Z score of 2.81. This is in the better half of the industry: XPO outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of XPO is 27.62, which is on the high side as it means it would take XPO, 27.62 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
XPO's Debt to FCF ratio of 27.62 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 56.41% of its industry peers.
XPO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.03. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
XPO's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.03 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. XPO is outperformed by 84.62% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.03 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 27.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.81 |
ROIC/WACC0.92
WACC9.3%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.02 indicates that XPO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
XPO's Current ratio of 1.02 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 51.28% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.02 indicates that XPO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
XPO has a Quick ratio (1.02) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.02 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.02 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
XPO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 18.61%, which is quite good.
XPO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -1.25% yearly.
Looking at the last year, XPO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 1.95% in the last year.
XPO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -5.45% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)18.61%
EPS 3Y-11.82%
EPS 5Y-1.25%
EPS Q2Q%-9.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.95%
Revenue growth 3Y3.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.45%
Sales Q2Q%-3.17%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.77% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
XPO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.82% yearly.
EPS Next Y-3.02%
EPS Next 2Y11.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.88%
EPS Next 5Y16.77%
Revenue Next Year-0.1%
Revenue Next 2Y2.14%
Revenue Next 3Y2.86%
Revenue Next 5Y4.82%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 32.03, the valuation of XPO can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as XPO.
XPO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit more expensive than the S&P500 average which is at 26.31.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 25.29, the valuation of XPO can be described as expensive.
XPO's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
XPO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.13.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 25.29 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as XPO.
XPO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 115.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.78 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
XPO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
XPO's earnings are expected to grow with 13.88% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y11.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.88%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
XPO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
120.45
-1.79 (-1.46%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners106.05%
Inst Owner Change2.72%
Ins Owners1.81%
Ins Owner Change2.81%
Market Cap14.19B
Analysts82.67
Price Target128.69 (6.84%)
Short Float %8.56%
Short Ratio4.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.72%
Min EPS beat(2)10.54%
Max EPS beat(2)38.89%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.54%
Min EPS beat(4)9.48%
Max EPS beat(4)38.89%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)20.67%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)18.74%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)18.89%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.03%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.52%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.56%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-19.94%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-19.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.47%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-14.68%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.74%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.14%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.97%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 25.29 | ||
| P/S | 1.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 115.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.63 | ||
| P/B | 8.65 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.78 |
EPS(TTM)3.76
EY3.12%
EPS(NY)4.76
Fwd EY3.95%
FCF(TTM)1.04
FCFY0.87%
OCF(TTM)6.83
OCFY5.67%
SpS67.97
BVpS13.92
TBVpS-1.71
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.94% | ||
| ROE | 23.72% | ||
| ROCE | 10.97% | ||
| ROIC | 8.54% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.83% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 8.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.86% | ||
| GM | 59.63% | ||
| FCFM | 1.54% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.5%
ROE(3y)34.97%
ROE(5y)27.47%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)5.64%
ROICexc(3y)8.52%
ROICexc(5y)6.05%
ROICexgc(3y)13.48%
ROICexgc(5y)9.52%
ROCE(3y)10.2%
ROCE(5y)7.25%
ROICexcg growth 3Y29.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.06%
ROICexc growth 3Y32.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y19.05%
OM growth 3Y28.41%
OM growth 5Y12.76%
PM growth 3Y0.91%
PM growth 5Y6.2%
GM growth 3Y17.98%
GM growth 5Y13.75%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.02
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.03 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 27.62 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 137.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 8.52% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.89 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 67.65% | ||
| Profit Quality | 31.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.02 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.81 |
F-Score7
WACC9.3%
ROIC/WACC0.92
Cap/Depr(3y)216.26%
Cap/Depr(5y)156.91%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.11%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.82%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)18.61%
EPS 3Y-11.82%
EPS 5Y-1.25%
EPS Q2Q%-9.88%
EPS Next Y-3.02%
EPS Next 2Y11.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.88%
EPS Next 5Y16.77%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.95%
Revenue growth 3Y3.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.45%
Sales Q2Q%-3.17%
Revenue Next Year-0.1%
Revenue Next 2Y2.14%
Revenue Next 3Y2.86%
Revenue Next 5Y4.82%
EBIT growth 1Y15.47%
EBIT growth 3Y33.38%
EBIT growth 5Y6.62%
EBIT Next Year73.46%
EBIT Next 3Y29.73%
EBIT Next 5Y21.6%
FCF growth 1Y59.74%
FCF growth 3Y-65.23%
FCF growth 5Y-45.95%
OCF growth 1Y15.16%
OCF growth 3Y3.87%
OCF growth 5Y0.43%