XCEL ENERGY INC (XEL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:XEL - Nasdaq - US98389B1008 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to XEL. XEL was compared to 46 industry peers in the Electric Utilities industry. While XEL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. XEL is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year XEL was profitable.
In the past year XEL had a positive cash flow from operations.
XEL had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
XEL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
XEL has a Return On Assets of 2.65%. This is in the lower half of the industry: XEL underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of XEL (9.75%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of XEL (2.82%) is worse than 89.13% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for XEL is significantly below the industry average of 39.32%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.65% | ||
| ROE | 9.75% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% |
ROA(3y)2.79%
ROA(5y)2.77%
ROE(3y)10.13%
ROE(5y)10.14%
ROIC(3y)3.27%
ROIC(5y)3.27%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of XEL (14.10%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
XEL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
XEL has a Operating Margin of 17.40%. This is in the lower half of the industry: XEL underperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of XEL has remained more or less at the same level.
XEL's Gross Margin of 92.78% is amongst the best of the industry. XEL outperforms 97.83% of its industry peers.
XEL's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.4% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 14.1% | ||
| GM | 92.78% |
OM growth 3Y2.67%
OM growth 5Y-0.62%
PM growth 3Y6.6%
PM growth 5Y3.89%
GM growth 3Y0.42%
GM growth 5Y0.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so XEL is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, XEL has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for XEL has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
XEL has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
XEL has an Altman-Z score of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that XEL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
XEL has a Altman-Z score of 0.90. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: XEL outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.52 is on the high side and indicates that XEL has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.52, XEL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.52 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.9 |
ROIC/WACC0.42
WACC6.68%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.80 indicates that XEL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of XEL (0.80) is worse than 65.22% of its industry peers.
XEL has a Quick Ratio of 0.80. This is a bad value and indicates that XEL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.70, XEL is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.7 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for XEL have decreased by -1.71% in the last year.
XEL shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 5.68% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -0.56% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.12% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.71%
EPS 3Y5.54%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%-4.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.56%
Revenue growth 3Y0.02%
Revenue growth 5Y3.12%
Sales Q2Q%7.04%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.15% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
XEL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.04% yearly.
EPS Next Y10.64%
EPS Next 2Y9.46%
EPS Next 3Y8.94%
EPS Next 5Y8.15%
Revenue Next Year3.94%
Revenue Next 2Y5.14%
Revenue Next 3Y5.53%
Revenue Next 5Y6.04%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.27, XEL is valued on the expensive side.
XEL's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. XEL is more expensive than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.25. XEL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.72, the valuation of XEL can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of XEL is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.15. XEL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.72 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, XEL is valued a bit more expensive than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.09 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates XEL does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)1.91
PEG (5Y)3.57
EPS Next 2Y9.46%
EPS Next 3Y8.94%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
XEL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.28%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.46, XEL has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
XEL's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.28% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of XEL grows each year by 6.45%, which is quite nice.
XEL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
The dividend of XEL decreased recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)6.45%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
XEL pays out 62.20% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of XEL is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP62.2%
EPS Next 2Y9.46%
EPS Next 3Y8.94%
69.73
-0.37 (-0.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryElectric Utilities
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners88.52%
Inst Owner Change1.52%
Ins Owners0.19%
Ins Owner Change5.58%
Market Cap40.22B
Analysts80
Price Target77.08 (10.54%)
Short Float %1.53%
Short Ratio2.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.28% |
Yearly Dividend2.08
Dividend Growth(5Y)6.45%
DP62.2%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.89%
Min EPS beat(2)-9.55%
Max EPS beat(2)-8.23%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.47%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.55%
Max EPS beat(4)-1.66%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-3.08%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.36%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-1.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-9.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-18.13%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-9.16%
Min Revenue beat(4)-18.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.66%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.57%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.35%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.06%
PT rev (1m)1.43%
PT rev (3m)4.02%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.87%
EPS NQ rev (3m)2.99%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.61%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.44%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.56%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.72 | ||
| P/S | 2.94 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 8.71 | ||
| P/B | 2.03 | ||
| P/tB | 2.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.09 |
EPS(TTM)3.44
EY4.93%
EPS(NY)4.17
Fwd EY5.98%
FCF(TTM)-5.54
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)8.01
OCFY11.49%
SpS23.75
BVpS34.34
TBVpS34.34
PEG (NY)1.91
PEG (5Y)3.57
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.65% | ||
| ROE | 9.75% | ||
| ROCE | 3.61% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.87% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.87% | ||
| OM | 17.4% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 14.1% | ||
| GM | 92.78% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.79%
ROA(5y)2.77%
ROE(3y)10.13%
ROE(5y)10.14%
ROIC(3y)3.27%
ROIC(5y)3.27%
ROICexc(3y)3.28%
ROICexc(5y)3.28%
ROICexgc(3y)3.28%
ROICexgc(5y)3.28%
ROCE(3y)4.2%
ROCE(5y)4.2%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-3.22%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4%
ROICexc growth 3Y-3.22%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4%
OM growth 3Y2.67%
OM growth 5Y-0.62%
PM growth 3Y6.6%
PM growth 5Y3.89%
GM growth 3Y0.42%
GM growth 5Y0.25%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.19
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.52 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.65 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 264.56% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 57.05% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.07 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 86.53% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.7 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.9 |
F-Score4
WACC6.68%
ROIC/WACC0.42
Cap/Depr(3y)221.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)222.34%
Cap/Sales(3y)42.1%
Cap/Sales(5y)40.89%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.71%
EPS 3Y5.54%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%-4.55%
EPS Next Y10.64%
EPS Next 2Y9.46%
EPS Next 3Y8.94%
EPS Next 5Y8.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.56%
Revenue growth 3Y0.02%
Revenue growth 5Y3.12%
Sales Q2Q%7.04%
Revenue Next Year3.94%
Revenue Next 2Y5.14%
Revenue Next 3Y5.53%
Revenue Next 5Y6.04%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.51%
EBIT growth 3Y2.7%
EBIT growth 5Y2.48%
EBIT Next Year114.14%
EBIT Next 3Y38.63%
EBIT Next 5Y27.18%
FCF growth 1Y-405.7%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y6.7%
OCF growth 3Y28.47%
OCF growth 5Y7.3%