FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS INC (ULCC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ULCC - Nasdaq - US35909R1086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to ULCC. ULCC was compared to 22 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. Both the profitability and financial health of ULCC have multiple concerns. ULCC has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ULCC was profitable.
ULCC had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
ULCC had negative earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years ULCC reported 4 times negative operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ULCC has a Return On Assets (1.03%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ULCC has a better Return On Equity (11.75%) than 68.18% of its industry peers.
ULCC's Return On Invested Capital of 0.77% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ULCC outperforms 40.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.03% | ||
| ROE | 11.75% | ||
| ROIC | 0.77% |
ROA(3y)0.11%
ROA(5y)-1.68%
ROE(3y)1.49%
ROE(5y)-17.47%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ULCC has a Profit Margin (1.75%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ULCC has declined.
With a Operating Margin value of 1.15%, ULCC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ULCC has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 55.70%, ULCC is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ULCC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.15% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 55.7% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-33.83%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-25.97%
GM growth 3Y5.57%
GM growth 5Y-1.83%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ULCC is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ULCC has more shares outstanding
ULCC has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ULCC has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.56, we must say that ULCC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 0.56, ULCC is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.43 indicates that ULCC is not too dependend on debt financing.
With an excellent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.43, ULCC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.43 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.08
WACC9.76%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.49 indicates that ULCC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ULCC's Current ratio of 0.49 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ULCC is outperformed by 72.73% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.45 indicates that ULCC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ULCC has a Quick ratio of 0.45. This is in the lower half of the industry: ULCC underperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.45 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ULCC shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 62.50%, which is quite impressive.
ULCC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -20.57% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.99% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, ULCC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 8.52% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.5%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-20.57%
EPS Q2Q%-111.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.99%
Revenue growth 3Y22.37%
Revenue growth 5Y8.52%
Sales Q2Q%5.43%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ULCC will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 65.27% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.69% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-181.88%
EPS Next 2Y48.54%
EPS Next 3Y65.27%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.03%
Revenue Next 2Y7.82%
Revenue Next 3Y9.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 31.69, the valuation of ULCC can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as ULCC.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.50, ULCC is valued at the same level.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.12, the valuation of ULCC can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ULCC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.73% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.44. ULCC is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.12 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ULCC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.46 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ULCC's earnings are expected to grow with 65.27% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y48.54%
EPS Next 3Y65.27%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ULCC!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
4.12
-0.07 (-1.67%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners26.75%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners34.05%
Ins Owner Change-0.39%
Market Cap938.37M
Analysts54.12
Price Target4.79 (16.26%)
Short Float %30.07%
Short Ratio4.46
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-14.8%
Min EPS beat(2)-117.23%
Max EPS beat(2)87.63%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-23.8%
Min EPS beat(4)-117.23%
Max EPS beat(4)87.63%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)10.46%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)14.6%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)15.29%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.45%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.7%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.2%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.67%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.07%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.2%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.96%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.63%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-48.63%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-188.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)-74.66%
EPS NY rev (3m)-121.96%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-9.3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-8.52%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.12 | ||
| P/S | 0.25 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.65 | ||
| P/tB | 1.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.46 |
EPS(TTM)0.13
EY3.16%
EPS(NY)0.51
Fwd EY12.32%
FCF(TTM)-0.98
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.64
OCFYN/A
SpS16.78
BVpS2.5
TBVpS2.38
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.03% | ||
| ROE | 11.75% | ||
| ROCE | 0.97% | ||
| ROIC | 0.77% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.9% | ||
| ROICexgc | 0.91% | ||
| OM | 1.15% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 55.7% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.11%
ROA(5y)-1.68%
ROE(3y)1.49%
ROE(5y)-17.47%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-37.21%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-37.1%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-33.83%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-25.97%
GM growth 3Y5.57%
GM growth 5Y-1.83%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.59
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.43 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.03 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 101.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.01% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.45 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
F-Score4
WACC9.76%
ROIC/WACC0.08
Cap/Depr(3y)99.56%
Cap/Depr(5y)83.64%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.56%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.45%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.5%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-20.57%
EPS Q2Q%-111.11%
EPS Next Y-181.88%
EPS Next 2Y48.54%
EPS Next 3Y65.27%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.99%
Revenue growth 3Y22.37%
Revenue growth 5Y8.52%
Sales Q2Q%5.43%
Revenue Next Year3.03%
Revenue Next 2Y7.82%
Revenue Next 3Y9.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y588.89%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-28.19%
EBIT Next Year1349.18%
EBIT Next 3Y303.35%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-265.57%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-812.5%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A