HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:TWNK • US44109J1060

Current stock price

33.3 USD
-0.05 (-0.15%)
At close:
33.34 USD
+0.04 (+0.12%)
After Hours:

This TWNK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. TWNK Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year TWNK was profitable.
  • In the past year TWNK had a positive cash flow from operations.
TWNK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFTWNK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M 150M 200M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 4.83%, TWNK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.44% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With a decent Return On Equity value of 9.18%, TWNK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.52% of the companies in the same industry.
  • TWNK has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.38%. This is in the better half of the industry: TWNK outperforms 63.44% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for TWNK is below the industry average of 6.78%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (4.37%) for TWNK is below the current ROIC(5.38%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.83%
ROE 9.18%
ROIC 5.38%
ROA(3y)3.36%
ROA(5y)2.84%
ROE(3y)6.69%
ROE(5y)5.91%
ROIC(3y)4.37%
ROIC(5y)3.94%
TWNK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICTWNK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • TWNK has a Profit Margin of 12.28%. This is amongst the best in the industry. TWNK outperforms 90.32% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of TWNK has declined.
  • TWNK's Operating Margin of 16.91% is amongst the best of the industry. TWNK outperforms 94.62% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of TWNK has declined.
  • TWNK has a Gross Margin of 34.99%. This is amongst the best in the industry. TWNK outperforms 87.10% of its industry peers.
  • TWNK's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 16.91%
PM (TTM) 12.28%
GM 34.99%
OM growth 3Y3.8%
OM growth 5Y-7.44%
PM growth 3Y20.25%
PM growth 5Y-15.96%
GM growth 3Y1.25%
GM growth 5Y-4.03%
TWNK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsTWNK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10 20 30 40

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5

2. TWNK Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • TWNK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • TWNK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for TWNK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
TWNK Yearly Shares OutstandingTWNK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
TWNK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsTWNK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.54 indicates that TWNK is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • TWNK has a Altman-Z score (2.54) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • TWNK has a debt to FCF ratio of 9.63. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as TWNK would need 9.63 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 9.63, TWNK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.44% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.53 indicates that TWNK is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • TWNK has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.53. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: TWNK outperforms 48.39% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.53
Debt/FCF 9.63
Altman-Z 2.54
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.88%
TWNK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFTWNK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • TWNK has a Current Ratio of 1.80. This is a normal value and indicates that TWNK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of TWNK (1.80) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • TWNK has a Quick Ratio of 1.47. This is a normal value and indicates that TWNK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • TWNK has a better Quick ratio (1.47) than 74.19% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.8
Quick Ratio 1.47
TWNK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesTWNK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 100M 200M 300M 400M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. TWNK Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 9.47% over the past year.
  • TWNK shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.36% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, TWNK shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 10.00% in the last year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 11.84% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.47%
EPS 3Y17.37%
EPS 5Y7.36%
EPS Q2Q%27.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10%
Revenue growth 3Y14.38%
Revenue growth 5Y11.84%
Sales Q2Q%3.49%

3.2 Future

  • TWNK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.80% yearly.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.32% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y18%
EPS Next 2Y13.51%
EPS Next 3Y11.36%
EPS Next 5Y8.8%
Revenue Next Year5.6%
Revenue Next 2Y5.07%
Revenue Next 3Y4.87%
Revenue Next 5Y4.32%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
TWNK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesTWNK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 500M 1B 1.5B
TWNK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesTWNK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1

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2

4. TWNK Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 32.02, which means the current valuation is very expensive for TWNK.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of TWNK is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • TWNK is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.79, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 26.64 indicates a quite expensive valuation of TWNK.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as TWNK.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 38.88. TWNK is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 32.02
Fwd PE 26.64
TWNK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsTWNK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of TWNK is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as TWNK.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 42.86
EV/EBITDA 17.97
TWNK Per share dataTWNK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 -5 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.78
PEG (5Y)4.35
EPS Next 2Y13.51%
EPS Next 3Y11.36%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. TWNK Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • TWNK does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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TWNK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

HOSTESS BRANDS INC

NASDAQ:TWNK (11/6/2023, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 33.34 +0.04 (+0.12%)

33.3

-0.05 (-0.15%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)11-07
Earnings (Next)02-19
Inst Owners0%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners19.27%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap4.42B
Revenue(TTM)1.38B
Net Income(TTM)169.94M
Analysts70
Price Target34.74 (4.32%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.59%
Min EPS beat(2)2.05%
Max EPS beat(2)5.14%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)3.97%
Min EPS beat(4)1.05%
Max EPS beat(4)7.63%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.77%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.6%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.06%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.55%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.6%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.27%
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)0.74%
PT rev (3m)16.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.04%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.87%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.66%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.62%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 32.02
Fwd PE 26.64
P/S 3.2
P/FCF 42.86
P/OCF 17.7
P/B 2.39
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 17.97
EPS(TTM)1.04
EY3.12%
EPS(NY)1.25
Fwd EY3.75%
FCF(TTM)0.78
FCFY2.33%
OCF(TTM)1.88
OCFY5.65%
SpS10.41
BVpS13.94
TBVpS-5.91
PEG (NY)1.78
PEG (5Y)4.35
Graham Number0 (-100%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.83%
ROE 9.18%
ROCE 7.06%
ROIC 5.38%
ROICexc 5.54%
ROICexgc 30.86%
OM 16.91%
PM (TTM) 12.28%
GM 34.99%
FCFM 7.46%
ROA(3y)3.36%
ROA(5y)2.84%
ROE(3y)6.69%
ROE(5y)5.91%
ROIC(3y)4.37%
ROIC(5y)3.94%
ROICexc(3y)4.63%
ROICexc(5y)4.2%
ROICexgc(3y)35.07%
ROICexgc(5y)36.04%
ROCE(3y)5.74%
ROCE(5y)5.17%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.58%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-14.6%
ROICexc growth 3Y12.1%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.38%
OM growth 3Y3.8%
OM growth 5Y-7.44%
PM growth 3Y20.25%
PM growth 5Y-15.96%
GM growth 3Y1.25%
GM growth 5Y-4.03%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.53
Debt/FCF 9.63
Debt/EBITDA 3.32
Cap/Depr 235.98%
Cap/Sales 10.61%
Interest Coverage 4.78
Cash Conversion 84.43%
Profit Quality 60.75%
Current Ratio 1.8
Quick Ratio 1.47
Altman-Z 2.54
F-Score8
WACC7.88%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)149.99%
Cap/Depr(5y)132.08%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.02%
Cap/Sales(5y)6.24%
Profit Quality(3y)114.45%
Profit Quality(5y)131.78%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.47%
EPS 3Y17.37%
EPS 5Y7.36%
EPS Q2Q%27.27%
EPS Next Y18%
EPS Next 2Y13.51%
EPS Next 3Y11.36%
EPS Next 5Y8.8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10%
Revenue growth 3Y14.38%
Revenue growth 5Y11.84%
Sales Q2Q%3.49%
Revenue Next Year5.6%
Revenue Next 2Y5.07%
Revenue Next 3Y4.87%
Revenue Next 5Y4.32%
EBIT growth 1Y12.2%
EBIT growth 3Y18.73%
EBIT growth 5Y3.52%
EBIT Next Year45.07%
EBIT Next 3Y18.06%
EBIT Next 5Y17.33%
FCF growth 1Y-21.87%
FCF growth 3Y4.56%
FCF growth 5Y-1.62%
OCF growth 1Y34.54%
OCF growth 3Y20%
OCF growth 5Y8.73%

HOSTESS BRANDS INC / TWNK Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to TWNK.


What is the valuation status of HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK). This can be considered as Overvalued.


How profitable is HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) stock?

HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


How financially healthy is HOSTESS BRANDS INC?

The financial health rating of HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) is 5 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for TWNK stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HOSTESS BRANDS INC (TWNK) is expected to grow by 18% in the next year.