TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:TMST • US8873991033

Current stock price

20.4 USD
+0.21 (+1.04%)
At close:
20.4 USD
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This TMST fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. TMST Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year TMST was profitable.
  • TMST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: TMST reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • In the past 5 years TMST always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
TMST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFTMST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100M -100M

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of TMST (5.90%) is better than 78.34% of its industry peers.
  • With a decent Return On Equity value of 9.49%, TMST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • TMST's Return On Invested Capital of 7.54% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TMST outperforms 73.89% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for TMST is significantly below the industry average of 59.89%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (7.32%) for TMST is below the current ROIC(7.54%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.9%
ROE 9.49%
ROIC 7.54%
ROA(3y)8.89%
ROA(5y)2.06%
ROE(3y)14.9%
ROE(5y)2.59%
ROIC(3y)7.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
TMST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICTMST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 -10 20

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.09%, TMST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.06% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 7.48%, TMST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.78% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of TMST has grown nicely.
  • TMST has a Gross Margin (13.69%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • TMST's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 7.48%
PM (TTM) 5.09%
GM 13.69%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y33.51%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y93.89%
GM growth 5Y11.73%
TMST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsTMST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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6

2. TMST Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • TMST has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • TMST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • TMST has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
TMST Yearly Shares OutstandingTMST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M 40M
TMST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsTMST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.99 indicates that TMST is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.99, TMST is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.87% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of TMST is 0.18, which is an excellent value as it means it would take TMST, only 0.18 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • TMST's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.18 is amongst the best of the industry. TMST outperforms 91.72% of its industry peers.
  • TMST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of TMST (0.02) is better than 68.79% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.02
Debt/FCF 0.18
Altman-Z 2.99
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC8.73%
TMST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFTMST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M 400M 600M

2.3 Liquidity

  • TMST has a Current Ratio of 2.64. This indicates that TMST is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • TMST has a Current ratio (2.64) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 1.73 indicates that TMST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.73, TMST is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.50% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.64
Quick Ratio 1.73
TMST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesTMST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. TMST Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 36.18% over the past year.
  • TMST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 2.44%.
  • Measured over the past years, TMST shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.29% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.18%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%104.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.44%
Revenue growth 3Y17.93%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.29%
Sales Q2Q%33.7%

3.2 Future

  • TMST is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.55% yearly.
  • TMST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.82% yearly.
EPS Next Y-1.1%
EPS Next 2Y6.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.87%
Revenue Next 2Y3.82%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
TMST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesTMST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B
TMST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesTMST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1 -1 2 -2 3

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7

4. TMST Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.88, the valuation of TMST can be described as correct.
  • 80.89% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TMST, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • TMST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.38, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.09, the valuation of TMST can be described as reasonable.
  • 83.44% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TMST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • TMST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 38.20.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.88
Fwd PE 11.09
TMST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsTMST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of TMST indicates a rather cheap valuation: TMST is cheaper than 91.72% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • TMST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. TMST is cheaper than 84.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 11.94
EV/EBITDA 3.78
TMST Per share dataTMST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • TMST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y6.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. TMST Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for TMST!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

More info and screens

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TMST Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

TIMKENSTEEL CORP

NYSE:TMST (2/26/2024, 8:04:32 PM)

After market: 20.4 0 (0%)

20.4

+0.21 (+1.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)02-27
Earnings (Next)05-02
Inst Owners82.12%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.73%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap880.26M
Revenue(TTM)1.36B
Net Income(TTM)69.40M
Analysts43.33
Price Target28.56 (40%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)N/A
Avg EPS beat(2)N/A
Min EPS beat(2)N/A
Max EPS beat(2)N/A
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.55%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.05%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.21%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.17%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.13%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.5%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.36%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)-6.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.84%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.42%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.88
Fwd PE 11.09
P/S 0.65
P/FCF 11.94
P/OCF 7.03
P/B 1.2
P/tB 1.21
EV/EBITDA 3.78
EPS(TTM)1.47
EY7.21%
EPS(NY)1.84
Fwd EY9.02%
FCF(TTM)1.71
FCFY8.37%
OCF(TTM)2.9
OCFY14.23%
SpS31.57
BVpS16.95
TBVpS16.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number0 (-100%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.9%
ROE 9.49%
ROCE 10.99%
ROIC 7.54%
ROICexc 10.74%
ROICexgc 10.79%
OM 7.48%
PM (TTM) 5.09%
GM 13.69%
FCFM 5.41%
ROA(3y)8.89%
ROA(5y)2.06%
ROE(3y)14.9%
ROE(5y)2.59%
ROIC(3y)7.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)10.21%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)10.29%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.88%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y40.86%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y41.23%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y33.51%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y93.89%
GM growth 5Y11.73%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.16
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.02
Debt/FCF 0.18
Debt/EBITDA 0.08
Cap/Depr 90.69%
Cap/Sales 3.79%
Interest Coverage 48.52
Cash Conversion 78.9%
Profit Quality 106.2%
Current Ratio 2.64
Quick Ratio 1.73
Altman-Z 2.99
F-Score6
WACC8.73%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)52.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)46.47%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.26%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.39%
Profit Quality(3y)126.4%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.18%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%104.24%
EPS Next Y-1.1%
EPS Next 2Y6.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.44%
Revenue growth 3Y17.93%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.29%
Sales Q2Q%33.7%
Revenue Next Year1.87%
Revenue Next 2Y3.82%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y92.63%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y29.11%
EBIT Next Year58.45%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-31.38%
FCF growth 3Y-22.22%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-6.84%
OCF growth 3Y-10.28%
OCF growth 5Y46.61%

TIMKENSTEEL CORP / TMST Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to TMST.


Can you provide the valuation status for TIMKENSTEEL CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of TMST stock?

TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for TMST stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) is 13.88 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.2.


What is the expected EPS growth for TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) is expected to decline by -1.1% in the next year.