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TIMKENSTEEL CORP (TMST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:TMST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US8873991033 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

20.4  +0.21 (+1.04%)

After market: 20.4 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to TMST. TMST was compared to 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. TMST has an excellent financial health rating, but there are some minor concerns on its profitability. TMST has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. These ratings could make TMST a good candidate for value investing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year TMST was profitable.
In the past year TMST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: TMST reported negative net income in multiple years.
TMST had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
TMST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFTMST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100M -100M

1.2 Ratios

TMST has a Return On Assets of 5.90%. This is in the better half of the industry: TMST outperforms 78.34% of its industry peers.
TMST has a Return On Equity of 9.49%. This is in the better half of the industry: TMST outperforms 77.71% of its industry peers.
TMST has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.54%) than 73.89% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for TMST is below the industry average of 11.61%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.32%) for TMST is below the current ROIC(7.54%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.9%
ROE 9.49%
ROIC 7.54%
ROA(3y)8.89%
ROA(5y)2.06%
ROE(3y)14.9%
ROE(5y)2.59%
ROIC(3y)7.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
TMST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICTMST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 -10 20

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.09%, TMST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.06% of the companies in the same industry.
TMST has a better Operating Margin (7.48%) than 61.78% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of TMST has grown nicely.
TMST has a Gross Margin of 13.69%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: TMST outperforms 49.04% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TMST has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 7.48%
PM (TTM) 5.09%
GM 13.69%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y33.51%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y93.89%
GM growth 5Y11.73%
TMST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsTMST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

7

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

TMST has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, TMST has less shares outstanding
TMST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, TMST has an improved debt to assets ratio.
TMST Yearly Shares OutstandingTMST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M 40M
TMST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsTMST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.99 indicates that TMST is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
TMST's Altman-Z score of 2.99 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. TMST outperforms 59.87% of its industry peers.
TMST has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.18. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
TMST's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.18 is amongst the best of the industry. TMST outperforms 91.72% of its industry peers.
TMST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
TMST has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.02) than 68.79% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.02
Debt/FCF 0.18
Altman-Z 2.99
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC8.73%
TMST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFTMST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M 400M 600M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 2.64 indicates that TMST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of TMST (2.64) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.73 indicates that TMST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
TMST has a Quick ratio (1.73) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.64
Quick Ratio 1.73
TMST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesTMST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M

3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 36.18% over the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.44% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, TMST shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.29% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.18%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%104.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.44%
Revenue growth 3Y17.93%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.29%
Sales Q2Q%33.7%

3.2 Future

TMST is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.55% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, TMST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.82% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-1.1%
EPS Next 2Y6.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.87%
Revenue Next 2Y3.82%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
TMST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesTMST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B
TMST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesTMST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1 -1 2 -2 3

7

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.88, TMST is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of TMST indicates a rather cheap valuation: TMST is cheaper than 80.89% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.53. TMST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.09, which indicates a very decent valuation of TMST.
TMST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. TMST is cheaper than 83.44% of the companies in the same industry.
TMST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 36.71.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.88
Fwd PE 11.09
TMST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsTMST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

91.72% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TMST, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, TMST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 84.71% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 11.94
EV/EBITDA 3.78
TMST Per share dataTMST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The decent profitability rating of TMST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y6.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for TMST!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

TIMKENSTEEL CORP

NYSE:TMST (2/26/2024, 8:04:32 PM)

After market: 20.4 0 (0%)

20.4

+0.21 (+1.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)02-27 2024-02-27/amc
Earnings (Next)05-02 2024-05-02/amc
Inst Owners82.12%
Inst Owner Change0.33%
Ins Owners2.73%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap880.26M
Analysts43.33
Price Target28.56 (40%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)N/A
Avg EPS beat(2)N/A
Min EPS beat(2)N/A
Max EPS beat(2)N/A
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.55%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.05%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.21%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.17%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.13%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.5%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.36%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)-6.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.84%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.42%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.88
Fwd PE 11.09
P/S 0.65
P/FCF 11.94
P/OCF 7.03
P/B 1.2
P/tB 1.21
EV/EBITDA 3.78
EPS(TTM)1.47
EY7.21%
EPS(NY)1.84
Fwd EY9.02%
FCF(TTM)1.71
FCFY8.37%
OCF(TTM)2.9
OCFY14.23%
SpS31.57
BVpS16.95
TBVpS16.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.9%
ROE 9.49%
ROCE 10.99%
ROIC 7.54%
ROICexc 10.74%
ROICexgc 10.79%
OM 7.48%
PM (TTM) 5.09%
GM 13.69%
FCFM 5.41%
ROA(3y)8.89%
ROA(5y)2.06%
ROE(3y)14.9%
ROE(5y)2.59%
ROIC(3y)7.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)10.21%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)10.29%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.88%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y40.86%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y41.23%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y33.51%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y93.89%
GM growth 5Y11.73%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.16
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.02
Debt/FCF 0.18
Debt/EBITDA 0.08
Cap/Depr 90.69%
Cap/Sales 3.79%
Interest Coverage 48.52
Cash Conversion 78.9%
Profit Quality 106.2%
Current Ratio 2.64
Quick Ratio 1.73
Altman-Z 2.99
F-Score6
WACC8.73%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)52.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)46.47%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.26%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.39%
Profit Quality(3y)126.4%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.18%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%104.24%
EPS Next Y-1.1%
EPS Next 2Y6.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.44%
Revenue growth 3Y17.93%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.29%
Sales Q2Q%33.7%
Revenue Next Year1.87%
Revenue Next 2Y3.82%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y92.63%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y29.11%
EBIT Next Year58.45%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-31.38%
FCF growth 3Y-22.22%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-6.84%
OCF growth 3Y-10.28%
OCF growth 5Y46.61%