TRIUMPH GROUP INC (TGI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:TGI - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US8968181011 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
TGI gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 65 industry peers in the Aerospace & Defense industry. While TGI is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. TGI is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year TGI was profitable.
In the past year TGI had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years TGI reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In multiple years TGI reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
TGI has a Return On Assets (2.51%) which is in line with its industry peers.
TGI's Return On Invested Capital of 11.13% is amongst the best of the industry. TGI outperforms 90.77% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for TGI is in line with the industry average of 8.39%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (11.13%) for TGI is above the 3 year average (8.29%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.51% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 11.13% |
ROA(3y)12.71%
ROA(5y)3.46%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)8.29%
ROIC(5y)7.37%
1.3 Margins
TGI has a Profit Margin (3.24%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
TGI's Operating Margin of 12.56% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TGI outperforms 78.46% of its industry peers.
TGI's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
TGI has a better Gross Margin (31.55%) than 69.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TGI has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.24% | ||
| GM | 31.55% |
OM growth 3Y14.98%
OM growth 5Y13.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y4.12%
GM growth 5Y9.07%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), TGI is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, TGI has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, TGI has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, TGI has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
TGI has an Altman-Z score of 1.60. This is a bad value and indicates that TGI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of TGI (1.60) is worse than 73.85% of its industry peers.
TGI has a debt to FCF ratio of 51.66. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as TGI would need 51.66 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 51.66, TGI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.31% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 51.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACC1
WACC11.16%
2.3 Liquidity
TGI has a Current Ratio of 2.22. This indicates that TGI is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 2.22, TGI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 49.23% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.32 indicates that TGI should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of TGI (1.32) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 1383.33% over the past year.
The earnings per share for TGI have been decreasing by -18.53% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, TGI shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.93% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, TGI shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -15.33% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1383.33%
EPS 3Y4.05%
EPS 5Y-18.53%
EPS Q2Q%54.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.93%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.02%
Revenue growth 5Y-15.33%
Sales Q2Q%5.38%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 28.85% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
TGI is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.51%
EPS Next 2Y29.82%
EPS Next 3Y28.85%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.43%
Revenue Next 2Y9.18%
Revenue Next 3Y8.88%
Revenue Next 5Y10.34%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 29.15, which means the current valuation is very expensive for TGI.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of TGI indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: TGI is cheaper than 73.85% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.53, TGI is valued at the same level.
TGI is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.79.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, TGI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.23% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.27, TGI is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.79 |
4.2 Price Multiples
84.62% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TGI, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
TGI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 106.66 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
TGI's earnings are expected to grow with 28.85% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y29.82%
EPS Next 3Y28.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for TGI!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
25.94
+0.07 (+0.27%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryAerospace & Defense
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners105.81%
Inst Owner Change-4.71%
Ins Owners2.14%
Ins Owner Change3.7%
Market Cap2.01B
Analysts69.09
Price Target21.81 (-15.92%)
Short Float %10.56%
Short Ratio5.37
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)37.56%
Min EPS beat(2)35.53%
Max EPS beat(2)39.6%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)783.17%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.77%
Max EPS beat(4)3068.32%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)380.69%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)529.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)402.98%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)8.81%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.92%
Max Revenue beat(2)10.7%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.31%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.55%
Max Revenue beat(4)10.7%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.74%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.32%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.05%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)3.02%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.79%
EPS NQ rev (3m)16%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.44%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.79 | ||
| P/S | 1.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 106.66 | ||
| P/OCF | 53.01 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.89
EY3.43%
EPS(NY)1.09
Fwd EY4.2%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY0.94%
OCF(TTM)0.49
OCFY1.89%
SpS16.3
BVpS-0.99
TBVpS-8.33
PEG (NY)1.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.51% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 12.86% | ||
| ROIC | 11.13% | ||
| ROICexc | 14.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 35.5% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.24% | ||
| GM | 31.55% | ||
| FCFM | 1.49% |
ROA(3y)12.71%
ROA(5y)3.46%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)8.29%
ROIC(5y)7.37%
ROICexc(3y)10.84%
ROICexc(5y)9.74%
ROICexgc(3y)26.38%
ROICexgc(5y)24.28%
ROCE(3y)9.58%
ROCE(5y)8.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y7.93%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y13.48%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.89%
OM growth 3Y14.98%
OM growth 5Y13.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y4.12%
GM growth 5Y9.07%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.78
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 51.66 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.12 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 64.41% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.51% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.75 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 20.15% | ||
| Profit Quality | 46.07% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score5
WACC11.16%
ROIC/WACC1
Cap/Depr(3y)68.55%
Cap/Depr(5y)54.45%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.72%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1383.33%
EPS 3Y4.05%
EPS 5Y-18.53%
EPS Q2Q%54.84%
EPS Next Y22.51%
EPS Next 2Y29.82%
EPS Next 3Y28.85%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.93%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.02%
Revenue growth 5Y-15.33%
Sales Q2Q%5.38%
Revenue Next Year11.43%
Revenue Next 2Y9.18%
Revenue Next 3Y8.88%
Revenue Next 5Y10.34%
EBIT growth 1Y16.86%
EBIT growth 3Y14.96%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.26%
EBIT Next Year56.27%
EBIT Next 3Y25.33%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y252.04%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-19.84%
OCF growth 1Y301.2%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y-17.09%