Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:SRC • US84860W3007

Current stock price

42.31 USD
-0.67 (-1.56%)
At close:
42.31 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This SRC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. SRC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year SRC was profitable.
  • SRC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
SRC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFSRC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500M -1B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.87%, SRC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 74.40% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With a decent Return On Equity value of 5.52%, SRC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • SRC has a better Return On Invested Capital (3.14%) than 63.20% of its industry peers.
  • SRC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.96%. This is in line with the industry average of 3.11%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (3.14%) for SRC is above the 3 year average (2.96%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.87%
ROE 5.52%
ROIC 3.14%
ROA(3y)1.89%
ROA(5y)2.17%
ROE(3y)3.49%
ROE(5y)3.92%
ROIC(3y)2.96%
ROIC(5y)3.19%
SRC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICSRC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2 4 6

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of SRC (32.87%) is better than 87.20% of its industry peers.
  • SRC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • SRC's Operating Margin of 44.35% is amongst the best of the industry. SRC outperforms 88.80% of its industry peers.
  • SRC's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • SRC's Gross Margin of 95.85% is amongst the best of the industry. SRC outperforms 96.00% of its industry peers.
  • SRC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 44.35%
PM (TTM) 32.87%
GM 95.85%
OM growth 3Y-3.89%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y6.81%
PM growth 5Y17.76%
GM growth 3Y-0.21%
GM growth 5Y0.51%
SRC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsSRC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20 40 60 80

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1

2. SRC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), SRC is destroying value.
  • SRC has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for SRC is higher compared to a year ago.
SRC Yearly Shares OutstandingSRC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M
SRC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsSRC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • SRC has an Altman-Z score of 0.58. This is a bad value and indicates that SRC is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • SRC has a Altman-Z score of 0.58. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: SRC outperforms 49.60% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.85 indicates that SRC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • SRC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.85. This is in the better half of the industry: SRC outperforms 64.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.85
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.58
ROIC/WACC0.45
WACC6.93%
SRC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFSRC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 1B -1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • SRC has a Current Ratio of 0.61. This is a bad value and indicates that SRC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of SRC (0.61) is worse than 77.60% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.58 indicates that SRC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • SRC has a worse Quick ratio (0.58) than 77.60% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.61
Quick Ratio 0.58
SRC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesSRC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M 150M 200M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. SRC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • SRC shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.41%.
  • Measured over the past years, SRC shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 20.59% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has grown by 10.57% in the past year. This is quite good.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 10.47% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.41%
EPS 3Y1%
EPS 5Y20.59%
EPS Q2Q%-53.7%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.57%
Revenue growth 3Y11.18%
Revenue growth 5Y10.47%
Sales Q2Q%5.74%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, SRC will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -7.61% on average per year.
  • SRC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.45% yearly.
EPS Next Y-16.82%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
EPS Next 5Y-7.61%
Revenue Next Year7.73%
Revenue Next 2Y5.01%
Revenue Next 3Y4.5%
Revenue Next 5Y6.45%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
SRC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesSRC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
SRC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesSRC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0.5 1 1.5 2

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2

4. SRC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 24.18, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of SRC.
  • SRC's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. SRC is cheaper than 70.40% of the companies in the same industry.
  • SRC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 30.43, which means the current valuation is very expensive for SRC.
  • SRC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. SRC is cheaper than 76.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • SRC is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.99, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.18
Fwd PE 30.43
SRC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsSRC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

  • SRC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 14.94
SRC Per share dataSRC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • SRC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as SRC's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.67% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. SRC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.33%, SRC is a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.43, SRC pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, SRC pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.33%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of SRC decreases each year by -6.14%.
  • SRC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • The dividend of SRC decreased recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.14%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
SRC Yearly Dividends per shareSRC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • SRC pays out 154.84% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • SRC's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP154.84%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
SRC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendSRC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 200M -200M -400M -600M -800M -1B
SRC Dividend Payout.SRC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.SRC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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SRC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Spirit Realty Capital Inc

NYSE:SRC (1/22/2024, 8:08:28 PM)

After market: 42.31 0 (0%)

42.31

-0.67 (-1.56%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryDiversified REITs
Earnings (Last)11-02
Earnings (Next)02-22
Inst Owners2.68%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.79%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap5.99B
Revenue(TTM)754.40M
Net Income(TTM)248.00M
Analysts70
Price Target44.35 (4.82%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.33%
Yearly Dividend2.67
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.14%
DP154.84%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-16.33%
Min EPS beat(2)-30.76%
Max EPS beat(2)-1.9%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)17.92%
Min EPS beat(4)-30.76%
Max EPS beat(4)80.68%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)22.01%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)11.62%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-18.12%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.87%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.54%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.27%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.27%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.74%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.33%
PT rev (1m)0.77%
PT rev (3m)4.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.08%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.7%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.18
Fwd PE 30.43
P/S 7.94
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 11.49
P/B 1.33
P/tB 1.54
EV/EBITDA 14.94
EPS(TTM)1.75
EY4.14%
EPS(NY)1.39
Fwd EY3.29%
FCF(TTM)-2.18
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)3.68
OCFY8.7%
SpS5.33
BVpS31.74
TBVpS27.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
Graham Number0 (-100%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.87%
ROE 5.52%
ROCE 3.97%
ROIC 3.14%
ROICexc 3.19%
ROICexgc 3.45%
OM 44.35%
PM (TTM) 32.87%
GM 95.85%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.89%
ROA(5y)2.17%
ROE(3y)3.49%
ROE(5y)3.92%
ROIC(3y)2.96%
ROIC(5y)3.19%
ROICexc(3y)2.97%
ROICexc(5y)3.2%
ROICexgc(3y)3.26%
ROICexgc(5y)3.54%
ROCE(3y)3.75%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-6.63%
ROICexgc growth 5Y10.42%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y10.32%
OM growth 3Y-3.89%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y6.81%
PM growth 5Y17.76%
GM growth 3Y-0.21%
GM growth 5Y0.51%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.85
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 5.9
Cap/Depr 264.97%
Cap/Sales 109.9%
Interest Coverage 2.36
Cash Conversion 80.48%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.61
Quick Ratio 0.58
Altman-Z 0.58
F-Score4
WACC6.93%
ROIC/WACC0.45
Cap/Depr(3y)482.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)473.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)200.85%
Cap/Sales(5y)186.47%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.41%
EPS 3Y1%
EPS 5Y20.59%
EPS Q2Q%-53.7%
EPS Next Y-16.82%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
EPS Next 5Y-7.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.57%
Revenue growth 3Y11.18%
Revenue growth 5Y10.47%
Sales Q2Q%5.74%
Revenue Next Year7.73%
Revenue Next 2Y5.01%
Revenue Next 3Y4.5%
Revenue Next 5Y6.45%
EBIT growth 1Y5.32%
EBIT growth 3Y6.86%
EBIT growth 5Y13.59%
EBIT Next Year104.37%
EBIT Next 3Y29.69%
EBIT Next 5Y24.14%
FCF growth 1Y60.06%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y35.99%
OCF growth 3Y12.79%
OCF growth 5Y4.31%

Spirit Realty Capital Inc / SRC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for Spirit Realty Capital Inc?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to SRC.


What is the valuation status of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC). This can be considered as Overvalued.


How profitable is Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) stock?

Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) is expected to decline by -16.82% in the next year.


How sustainable is the dividend of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) stock?

The dividend rating of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 154.84%.