POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:POST - US7374461041 - Common Stock
107.28 USD
+0.42 (+0.39%)
107.28 USD
0 (0%)
POST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 89 industry peers in the Food Products industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of POST get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. POST has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
POST had positive earnings in the past year.
POST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
POST had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years POST had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.74%, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.43% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 9.17%, POST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.42% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 5.17%, POST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.06% of the companies in the same industry.
POST had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.25%. This is significantly below the industry average of 27.78%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.17%) for POST is above the 3 year average (4.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.74% | ||
| ROE | 9.17% | ||
| ROIC | 5.17% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 4.62%, POST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.54% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of POST has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of POST (10.50%) is better than 75.28% of its industry peers.
POST's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 29.20%, POST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.17% of the companies in the same industry.
POST's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.62% | ||
| GM | 29.2% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so POST is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for POST has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for POST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
POST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.53, we must say that POST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
POST has a worse Altman-Z score (1.53) than 60.67% of its industry peers.
POST has a debt to FCF ratio of 16.98. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as POST would need 16.98 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 16.98, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 51.69% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.84 is on the high side and indicates that POST has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of POST (1.84) is worse than 86.52% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.82
WACC6.34%
2.3 Liquidity
POST has a Current Ratio of 2.60. This indicates that POST is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
POST has a Current ratio of 2.60. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 77.53% of its industry peers.
POST has a Quick Ratio of 1.84. This is a normal value and indicates that POST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.84, POST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.15% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 5.18%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.76% on average over the past years.
POST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.80%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.88% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.18%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%31.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.8%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%1.88%
3.2 Future
POST is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.46% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -5.72% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y13.7%
EPS Next 2Y12.43%
EPS Next 3Y13.17%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year3.63%
Revenue Next 2Y5.91%
Revenue Next 3Y3.75%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 16.01, the valuation of POST can be described as correct.
66.29% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than POST, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.86. POST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 13.54, which indicates a correct valuation of POST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.03% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.32, POST is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
POST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. POST is cheaper than 61.80% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.28% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.47 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.07 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
POST's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of POST may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as POST's earnings are expected to grow with 13.17% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.17
PEG (5Y)3.37
EPS Next 2Y12.43%
EPS Next 3Y13.17%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
POST does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
107.28
+0.42 (+0.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.18%
Inst Owner Change-5.86%
Ins Owners2.48%
Ins Owner Change3.59%
Market Cap5.83B
Analysts80
Price Target128.54 (19.82%)
Short Float %7.42%
Short Ratio4.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.95%
Min EPS beat(2)15.09%
Max EPS beat(2)20.81%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.43%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)21.95%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)28.56%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)30.45%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.83%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.51%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.02%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.04%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.54%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-0.23%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.4%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.74%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)8.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.45%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.41%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.47 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.25 | ||
| P/B | 1.46 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.07 |
EPS(TTM)6.7
EY6.25%
EPS(NY)7.93
Fwd EY7.39%
FCF(TTM)7.97
FCFY7.43%
OCF(TTM)17.16
OCFY16%
SpS145.82
BVpS73.57
TBVpS-70.07
PEG (NY)1.17
PEG (5Y)3.37
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.74% | ||
| ROE | 9.17% | ||
| ROCE | 6.73% | ||
| ROIC | 5.17% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.65% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.28% | ||
| OM | 10.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.62% | ||
| GM | 29.2% | ||
| FCFM | 5.46% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.59
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 99.48% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 69.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 118.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
F-Score6
WACC6.34%
ROIC/WACC0.82
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.18%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%31.82%
EPS Next Y13.7%
EPS Next 2Y12.43%
EPS Next 3Y13.17%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.8%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%1.88%
Revenue Next Year3.63%
Revenue Next 2Y5.91%
Revenue Next 3Y3.75%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y3.13%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year81.72%
EBIT Next 3Y24.76%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y21.85%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y44.56%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%