POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:POST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7374461041 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall POST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated POST against 89 industry peers in the Food Products industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of POST get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. POST has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year POST was profitable.
POST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
POST had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years POST always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.74%, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 51.69% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Return On Equity of 9.17%. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 64.04% of its industry peers.
POST's Return On Invested Capital of 5.17% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 57.30% of its industry peers.
POST had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.25%. This is significantly below the industry average of 29.14%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.25%) for POST is below the current ROIC(5.17%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.74% | ||
| ROE | 9.17% | ||
| ROIC | 5.17% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
POST has a Profit Margin of 4.62%. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 68.54% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of POST has grown nicely.
POST's Operating Margin of 10.50% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 75.28% of its industry peers.
POST's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of POST (29.20%) is better than 64.04% of its industry peers.
POST's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.62% | ||
| GM | 29.2% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), POST is destroying value.
POST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
POST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for POST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
POST has an Altman-Z score of 1.54. This is a bad value and indicates that POST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
POST has a Altman-Z score of 1.54. This is in the lower half of the industry: POST underperforms 60.67% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of POST is 16.98, which is on the high side as it means it would take POST, 16.98 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
POST has a Debt to FCF ratio of 16.98. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: POST outperforms 52.81% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.84 is on the high side and indicates that POST has dependencies on debt financing.
POST has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.84. This is amonst the worse of the industry: POST underperforms 85.39% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.54 |
ROIC/WACC0.82
WACC6.3%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.60 indicates that POST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
POST has a better Current ratio (2.60) than 78.65% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.84 indicates that POST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of POST (1.84) is better than 84.27% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.18% over the past year.
POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.76% yearly.
Looking at the last year, POST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.80% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, POST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.88% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.18%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%31.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.8%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%1.88%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, POST will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.46% on average per year.
POST is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -5.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y6.52%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year1.87%
Revenue Next 2Y4.07%
Revenue Next 3Y2.33%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.51, POST is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.29% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.84. POST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.21 indicates a correct valuation of POST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 67.42% of the companies are valued more expensively.
POST is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.94, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.21 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than 61.80% of the companies in the same industry.
POST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. POST is cheaper than 77.53% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.89 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
POST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.53
PEG (5Y)3.47
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
POST does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
110.64
+0.8 (+0.73%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.77%
Inst Owner Change-5.87%
Ins Owners2.68%
Ins Owner Change2.85%
Market Cap6.01B
Analysts80
Price Target128.54 (16.18%)
Short Float %6.93%
Short Ratio4.78
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.95%
Min EPS beat(2)15.09%
Max EPS beat(2)20.81%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.43%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)21.95%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)28.56%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)30.45%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.83%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.51%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.02%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.04%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.54%
PT rev (1m)-0.23%
PT rev (3m)-0.15%
EPS NQ rev (1m)5.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.91%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)7.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.66%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.84%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.21 | ||
| P/S | 0.76 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.89 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.45 | ||
| P/B | 1.5 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.19 |
EPS(TTM)6.7
EY6.06%
EPS(NY)7.78
Fwd EY7.04%
FCF(TTM)7.97
FCFY7.2%
OCF(TTM)17.16
OCFY15.51%
SpS145.82
BVpS73.57
TBVpS-70.07
PEG (NY)2.53
PEG (5Y)3.47
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.74% | ||
| ROE | 9.17% | ||
| ROCE | 6.73% | ||
| ROIC | 5.17% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.65% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.28% | ||
| OM | 10.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.62% | ||
| GM | 29.2% | ||
| FCFM | 5.46% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.59
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 99.48% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 69.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 118.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.54 |
F-Score6
WACC6.3%
ROIC/WACC0.82
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.18%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%31.82%
EPS Next Y6.52%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.8%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%1.88%
Revenue Next Year1.87%
Revenue Next 2Y4.07%
Revenue Next 3Y2.33%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y3.13%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year77.48%
EBIT Next 3Y24.33%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y21.85%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y44.56%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%