POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:POST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7374461041 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall POST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated POST against 90 industry peers in the Food Products industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of POST get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. POST has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
POST had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year POST had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years POST has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years POST always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
POST has a Return On Assets (2.79%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
POST has a Return On Equity of 9.33%. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 67.78% of its industry peers.
POST has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.20%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: POST outperforms 58.89% of its industry peers.
POST had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.25%. This is below the industry average of 7.59%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.20%) for POST is above the 3 year average (4.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.79% | ||
| ROE | 9.33% | ||
| ROIC | 5.2% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
POST's Profit Margin of 4.53% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 67.78% of its industry peers.
POST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
POST has a better Operating Margin (10.12%) than 75.56% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of POST has declined.
POST's Gross Margin of 29.09% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of POST has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.53% | ||
| GM | 29.09% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), POST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, POST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, POST has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for POST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
POST has an Altman-Z score of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that POST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
POST's Altman-Z score of 1.56 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 43.33% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of POST is 13.91, which is on the high side as it means it would take POST, 13.91 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
POST has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.91) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.81 is on the high side and indicates that POST has dependencies on debt financing.
POST's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.81 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. POST is outperformed by 87.78% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.81 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC9.22%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.13 indicates that POST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.13, POST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Quick Ratio of 1.43. This is a normal value and indicates that POST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
POST's Quick ratio of 1.43 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 76.67% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
POST shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -2.20%.
Measured over the past 5 years, POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.76% on average per year.
POST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.48%.
Measured over the past years, POST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.88% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2.2%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%-6.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.48%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%-2.35%
3.2 Future
POST is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.46% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -5.72% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y6.52%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year1.19%
Revenue Next 2Y2.74%
Revenue Next 3Y1.8%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.13, the valuation of POST can be described as rather expensive.
POST's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. POST is cheaper than 61.11% of the companies in the same industry.
POST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.65, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
POST is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.46.
POST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. POST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.27, POST is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.13 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of POST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: POST is cheaper than 61.11% of the companies listed in the same industry.
80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than POST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.56 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.77 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
POST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.78
PEG (5Y)3.81
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for POST!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
112.56
+0.06 (+0.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.24%
Inst Owner Change1.88%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change2.96%
Market Cap6.27B
Analysts78.82
Price Target128.83 (14.45%)
Short Float %5.1%
Short Ratio4.08
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)13.6%
Min EPS beat(2)12.12%
Max EPS beat(2)15.09%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.34%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)26.78%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)28.93%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.97%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.77%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.66%
PT rev (1m)0.08%
PT rev (3m)-0.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.75%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.16%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.13 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.46 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.56 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.41 | ||
| P/B | 1.64 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.77 |
EPS(TTM)6.21
EY5.52%
EPS(NY)7.78
Fwd EY6.92%
FCF(TTM)8.96
FCFY7.96%
OCF(TTM)17.57
OCFY15.61%
SpS141.5
BVpS68.75
TBVpS-70.76
PEG (NY)2.78
PEG (5Y)3.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.79% | ||
| ROE | 9.33% | ||
| ROCE | 6.77% | ||
| ROIC | 5.2% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.49% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.07% | ||
| OM | 10.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.53% | ||
| GM | 29.09% | ||
| FCFM | 6.33% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.62
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.81 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.91 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 97.7% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.08% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 75.93% | ||
| Profit Quality | 139.74% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score5
WACC9.22%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2.2%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%-6.62%
EPS Next Y6.52%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.48%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%-2.35%
Revenue Next Year1.19%
Revenue Next 2Y2.74%
Revenue Next 3Y1.8%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y4.68%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year74.89%
EBIT Next 3Y22.84%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y225.91%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y123.01%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%