OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDI (OLLI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:OLLI - Nasdaq - US6811161099 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
OLLI gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 28 industry peers in the Broadline Retail industry. While OLLI has a great health rating, its profitability is only average at the moment. OLLI is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year OLLI was profitable.
OLLI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years OLLI has been profitable.
In the past 5 years OLLI always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.42%, OLLI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
OLLI has a Return On Equity of 11.62%. This is in the better half of the industry: OLLI outperforms 64.29% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of OLLI (7.92%) is better than 64.29% of its industry peers.
OLLI had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.46%. This is below the industry average of 11.59%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.92%) for OLLI is above the 3 year average (7.46%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.42% | ||
| ROE | 11.62% | ||
| ROIC | 7.92% |
ROA(3y)6.91%
ROA(5y)8.16%
ROE(3y)10.45%
ROE(5y)12.35%
ROIC(3y)7.46%
ROIC(5y)8.69%
1.3 Margins
OLLI has a Profit Margin of 8.59%. This is in the better half of the industry: OLLI outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of OLLI has declined.
OLLI has a Operating Margin of 10.65%. This is in the better half of the industry: OLLI outperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of OLLI has declined.
OLLI has a Gross Margin of 40.27%. This is in the lower half of the industry: OLLI underperforms 64.29% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of OLLI has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.65% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.59% | ||
| GM | 40.27% |
OM growth 3Y-2.07%
OM growth 5Y-2.09%
PM growth 3Y-0.71%
PM growth 5Y-2.58%
GM growth 3Y1.18%
GM growth 5Y0.4%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), OLLI is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for OLLI remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, OLLI has less shares outstanding
OLLI has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
OLLI has an Altman-Z score of 7.07. This indicates that OLLI is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 7.07, OLLI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
OLLI has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.02. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.02 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of OLLI (0.02) is better than 96.43% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.00 indicates that OLLI is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.00, OLLI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.57% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 7.07 |
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC9.24%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.87 indicates that OLLI has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.87, OLLI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.11 indicates that OLLI should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.11, OLLI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 46.43% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.87 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.11 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
OLLI shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 4.78%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.78% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
OLLI shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 8.70%.
The Revenue has been growing by 10.04% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.78%
EPS 3Y11.64%
EPS 5Y10.78%
EPS Q2Q%2.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.7%
Revenue growth 3Y9.02%
Revenue growth 5Y10.04%
Sales Q2Q%13.35%
3.2 Future
OLLI is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 13.69% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, OLLI will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 11.85% on average per year.
EPS Next Y16.58%
EPS Next 2Y15.46%
EPS Next 3Y13.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year13.89%
Revenue Next 2Y12.69%
Revenue Next 3Y11.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
OLLI is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 39.96.
OLLI's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
OLLI is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.69, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 30.16, which means the current valuation is very expensive for OLLI.
OLLI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
OLLI is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39.96 | ||
| Fwd PE | 30.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of OLLI is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, OLLI is valued a bit more expensive than 60.71% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 84.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 25.04 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates OLLI does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
OLLI has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as OLLI's earnings are expected to grow with 13.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.41
PEG (5Y)3.71
EPS Next 2Y15.46%
EPS Next 3Y13.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for OLLI!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
131.47
+1.92 (+1.48%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryBroadline Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners114.94%
Inst Owner Change4.12%
Ins Owners0.3%
Ins Owner Change0.95%
Market Cap8.07B
Analysts79.09
Price Target128.53 (-2.24%)
Short Float %6.83%
Short Ratio3.02
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.61%
Min EPS beat(2)-2.36%
Max EPS beat(2)3.57%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-2.36%
Max EPS beat(4)3.57%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.94%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.74%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.9%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.08%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.1%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.09%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.75%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.2%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.43%
PT rev (1m)1.23%
PT rev (3m)2.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.23%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.15%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.32%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.98%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.26%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.72%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.96%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39.96 | ||
| Fwd PE | 30.16 | ||
| P/S | 3.45 | ||
| P/FCF | 84.49 | ||
| P/OCF | 37.38 | ||
| P/B | 4.67 | ||
| P/tB | 7.66 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 25.04 |
EPS(TTM)3.29
EY2.5%
EPS(NY)4.36
Fwd EY3.32%
FCF(TTM)1.56
FCFY1.18%
OCF(TTM)3.52
OCFY2.68%
SpS38.11
BVpS28.17
TBVpS17.17
PEG (NY)2.41
PEG (5Y)3.71
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.42% | ||
| ROE | 11.62% | ||
| ROCE | 10.56% | ||
| ROIC | 7.92% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.39% | ||
| ROICexgc | 14.22% | ||
| OM | 10.65% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.59% | ||
| GM | 40.27% | ||
| FCFM | 4.08% |
ROA(3y)6.91%
ROA(5y)8.16%
ROE(3y)10.45%
ROE(5y)12.35%
ROIC(3y)7.46%
ROIC(5y)8.69%
ROICexc(3y)9.06%
ROICexc(5y)10.8%
ROICexgc(3y)15.28%
ROICexgc(5y)20.02%
ROCE(3y)9.95%
ROCE(5y)11.59%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-6.01%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y-0.9%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.07%
OM growth 3Y-2.07%
OM growth 5Y-2.09%
PM growth 3Y-0.71%
PM growth 5Y-2.58%
GM growth 3Y1.18%
GM growth 5Y0.4%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.86
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.02 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 256.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.15% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 521.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 72.92% | ||
| Profit Quality | 47.54% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.87 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Altman-Z | 7.07 |
F-Score7
WACC9.24%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)270.16%
Cap/Depr(5y)217.41%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.68%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)62.04%
Profit Quality(5y)65.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.78%
EPS 3Y11.64%
EPS 5Y10.78%
EPS Q2Q%2.74%
EPS Next Y16.58%
EPS Next 2Y15.46%
EPS Next 3Y13.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.7%
Revenue growth 3Y9.02%
Revenue growth 5Y10.04%
Sales Q2Q%13.35%
Revenue Next Year13.89%
Revenue Next 2Y12.69%
Revenue Next 3Y11.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y1.41%
EBIT growth 3Y6.77%
EBIT growth 5Y7.74%
EBIT Next Year36.27%
EBIT Next 3Y18.55%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-20.84%
FCF growth 3Y120.29%
FCF growth 5Y30.45%
OCF growth 1Y18.86%
OCF growth 3Y71.62%
OCF growth 5Y16.65%