NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:NFG - US6361801011 - Common Stock
79.35 USD
+1.36 (+1.74%)
79.35 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to NFG. NFG was compared to 14 industry peers in the Gas Utilities industry. NFG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on NFG.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year NFG was profitable.
NFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years NFG 4 years were profitable.
Of the past 5 years NFG 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
NFG's Return On Assets of 2.88% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. NFG outperforms 42.86% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 8.18%, NFG is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG has a better Return On Invested Capital (9.61%) than 85.71% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for NFG is above the industry average of 6.32%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.98%) for NFG is below the current ROIC(9.61%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.88% | ||
| ROE | 8.18% | ||
| ROIC | 9.61% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
1.3 Margins
NFG has a better Profit Margin (11.15%) than 71.43% of its industry peers.
NFG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of NFG (41.10%) is better than 92.86% of its industry peers.
NFG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 90.32%, NFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 41.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.15% | ||
| GM | 90.32% |
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NFG is still creating some value.
NFG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
2.2 Solvency
NFG has an Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
NFG has a Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is amongst the best in the industry. NFG outperforms 92.86% of its industry peers.
NFG has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.76. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as NFG would need 14.76 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 14.76, NFG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.82 indicates that NFG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.82, NFG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.57% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
ROIC/WACC1.3
WACC7.37%
2.3 Liquidity
NFG has a Current Ratio of 0.46. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NFG's Current ratio of 0.46 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. NFG is outperformed by 78.57% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.39 indicates that NFG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.39, NFG is doing worse than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
NFG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 37.92%, which is quite impressive.
NFG shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 18.56% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)37.92%
EPS 3Y5.47%
EPS 5Y18.56%
EPS Q2Q%58.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%22.67%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, NFG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.81% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, NFG will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 15.80% on average per year.
EPS Next Y18.08%
EPS Next 2Y15.65%
EPS Next 3Y10.81%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year17.68%
Revenue Next 2Y15.8%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 11.48 indicates a reasonable valuation of NFG.
78.57% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NFG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
NFG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.06, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.73, the valuation of NFG can be described as very reasonable.
NFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. NFG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NFG to the average of the S&P500 Index (32.73), we can say NFG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.73 |
4.2 Price Multiples
NFG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. NFG is cheaper than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, NFG is valued a bit cheaper than 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 38.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
NFG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.64
PEG (5Y)0.62
EPS Next 2Y15.65%
EPS Next 3Y10.81%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
NFG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.74%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
NFG's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.85.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, NFG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.74% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NFG has a limited annual growth rate of 3.28%.
NFG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
NFG has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
76.90% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NFG. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of NFG is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP76.9%
EPS Next 2Y15.65%
EPS Next 3Y10.81%
79.35
+1.36 (+1.74%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryGas Utilities
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79%
Inst Owner Change-0.66%
Ins Owners0.83%
Ins Owner Change0.32%
Market Cap7.17B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)243.54M
Analysts77.78
Price Target103.36 (30.26%)
Short Float %3.09%
Short Ratio5.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.74% |
Yearly Dividend2.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
DP76.9%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)7.73%
Min EPS beat(2)7.07%
Max EPS beat(2)8.4%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.5%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.24%
Max EPS beat(4)8.4%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.32%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.71%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.26%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-9.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.14%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-15.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-29.79%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.69%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-18.02%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-13.24%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-11.08%
PT rev (1m)0.33%
PT rev (3m)4.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-12.46%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.09%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.97%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.14%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.83%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.73 | ||
| P/S | 3.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 38.58 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.76 | ||
| P/B | 2.41 | ||
| P/tB | 2.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.31 |
EPS(TTM)6.91
EY8.71%
EPS(NY)8.16
Fwd EY10.28%
FCF(TTM)2.06
FCFY2.59%
OCF(TTM)11.73
OCFY14.79%
SpS24.16
BVpS32.93
TBVpS32.87
PEG (NY)0.64
PEG (5Y)0.62
Graham Number71.55
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.88% | ||
| ROE | 8.18% | ||
| ROCE | 11.88% | ||
| ROIC | 9.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.67% | ||
| OM | 41.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.15% | ||
| GM | 90.32% | ||
| FCFM | 8.51% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
ROICexc(3y)9.04%
ROICexc(5y)8.33%
ROICexgc(3y)9.05%
ROICexgc(5y)8.34%
ROCE(3y)11.22%
ROCE(5y)10.34%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-1.45%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.44%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.52%
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.82 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 196.09% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 40.05% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.93% | ||
| Profit Quality | 76.32% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
F-Score6
WACC7.37%
ROIC/WACC1.3
Cap/Depr(3y)223.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)225.59%
Cap/Sales(3y)43.83%
Cap/Sales(5y)44.19%
Profit Quality(3y)73.86%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)37.92%
EPS 3Y5.47%
EPS 5Y18.56%
EPS Q2Q%58.44%
EPS Next Y18.08%
EPS Next 2Y15.65%
EPS Next 3Y10.81%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%22.67%
Revenue Next Year17.68%
Revenue Next 2Y15.8%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.54%
EBIT growth 3Y3.1%
EBIT growth 5Y7.33%
EBIT Next Year109.06%
EBIT Next 3Y36.78%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-30.28%
FCF growth 3Y50.02%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-12.64%
OCF growth 3Y10.43%
OCF growth 5Y8.95%
NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO / NFG FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to NFG.
What is the valuation status of NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
How profitable is NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) stock?
NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) is 11.48 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.41.
How sustainable is the dividend of NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) stock?
The dividend rating of NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 76.9%.