NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NFG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6361801011 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, NFG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. NFG was compared to 14 industry peers in the Gas Utilities industry. NFG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. NFG is evaluated to be cheap and growing strongly. This does not happen too often!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year NFG was profitable.
NFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years NFG 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years NFG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.88%, NFG is doing worse than 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG has a Return On Equity of 8.18%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: NFG outperforms 42.86% of its industry peers.
NFG's Return On Invested Capital of 9.61% is amongst the best of the industry. NFG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for NFG is above the industry average of 6.34%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.98%) for NFG is below the current ROIC(9.61%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.88% | ||
| ROE | 8.18% | ||
| ROIC | 9.61% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of NFG (11.15%) is better than 71.43% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NFG has declined.
NFG has a better Operating Margin (41.10%) than 92.86% of its industry peers.
NFG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
NFG's Gross Margin of 90.32% is amongst the best of the industry. NFG outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
NFG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 41.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.15% | ||
| GM | 90.32% |
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NFG is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for NFG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, NFG has more shares outstanding
NFG has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
NFG has an Altman-Z score of 1.73. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of NFG (1.73) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NFG is 14.76, which is on the high side as it means it would take NFG, 14.76 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 14.76, NFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.82. This is a neutral value indicating NFG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NFG has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.82) than 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.73 |
ROIC/WACC1.27
WACC7.54%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.46 indicates that NFG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
NFG has a worse Current ratio (0.46) than 85.71% of its industry peers.
NFG has a Quick Ratio of 0.46. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.39, NFG is not doing good in the industry: 85.71% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 28.69% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, NFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.81% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, NFG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 12.45% in the last year.
NFG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.81% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.69%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%65.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.45%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%27.4%
3.2 Future
NFG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 21.13% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, NFG will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 10.44% on average per year.
EPS Next Y39.94%
EPS Next 2Y30.97%
EPS Next 3Y21.13%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.42%
Revenue Next 2Y14.48%
Revenue Next 3Y10.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.47, NFG is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, NFG is valued a bit cheaper than 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of NFG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.99), we can say NFG is valued rather cheaply.
NFG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.12.
85.71% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NFG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.36. NFG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.47 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.12 |
4.2 Price Multiples
85.71% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NFG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
NFG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 42.29 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.82 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NFG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
NFG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as NFG's earnings are expected to grow with 21.13% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.34
PEG (5Y)1.72
EPS Next 2Y30.97%
EPS Next 3Y21.13%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
NFG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.46%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.99, NFG is paying slightly less dividend.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, NFG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NFG has a limited annual growth rate of 3.28%.
NFG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
NFG has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
NFG pays out 76.90% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
NFG's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP76.9%
EPS Next 2Y30.97%
EPS Next 3Y21.13%
86.99
+0.23 (+0.27%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryGas Utilities
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.36%
Inst Owner Change-0.34%
Ins Owners0.81%
Ins Owner Change0.2%
Market Cap7.86B
Analysts78
Price Target98.94 (13.74%)
Short Float %2.47%
Short Ratio3.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
Yearly Dividend2.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
DP76.9%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)7.73%
Min EPS beat(2)7.07%
Max EPS beat(2)8.4%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.5%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.24%
Max EPS beat(4)8.4%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.32%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.71%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.26%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-9.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.14%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-15.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-29.79%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.69%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-18.02%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-13.24%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-11.08%
PT rev (1m)12.4%
PT rev (3m)16.94%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.76%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.22%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.31%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.53%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.86%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.47 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.12 | ||
| P/S | 3.6 | ||
| P/FCF | 42.29 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.41 | ||
| P/B | 2.64 | ||
| P/tB | 2.65 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.82 |
EPS(TTM)6.46
EY7.43%
EPS(NY)8.59
Fwd EY9.88%
FCF(TTM)2.06
FCFY2.36%
OCF(TTM)11.73
OCFY13.49%
SpS24.17
BVpS32.93
TBVpS32.87
PEG (NY)0.34
PEG (5Y)1.72
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.88% | ||
| ROE | 8.18% | ||
| ROCE | 11.88% | ||
| ROIC | 9.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.67% | ||
| OM | 41.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.15% | ||
| GM | 90.32% | ||
| FCFM | 8.51% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
ROICexc(3y)9.04%
ROICexc(5y)8.33%
ROICexgc(3y)9.05%
ROICexgc(5y)8.34%
ROCE(3y)11.22%
ROCE(5y)10.34%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-1.45%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.44%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.52%
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.82 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 196.09% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 40.05% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.93% | ||
| Profit Quality | 76.32% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.73 |
F-Score6
WACC7.54%
ROIC/WACC1.27
Cap/Depr(3y)223.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)225.59%
Cap/Sales(3y)43.83%
Cap/Sales(5y)44.19%
Profit Quality(3y)73.86%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.69%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%65.66%
EPS Next Y39.94%
EPS Next 2Y30.97%
EPS Next 3Y21.13%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.45%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%27.4%
Revenue Next Year11.42%
Revenue Next 2Y14.48%
Revenue Next 3Y10.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.54%
EBIT growth 3Y3.1%
EBIT growth 5Y7.33%
EBIT Next Year110.08%
EBIT Next 3Y35.23%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-30.28%
FCF growth 3Y50.02%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-12.64%
OCF growth 3Y10.43%
OCF growth 5Y8.95%