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MORGAN STANLEY DIRECT LENDIN (MSDL) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:MSDL - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US61774A1034 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

19.79  +0.19 (+0.97%)

Fundamental Rating

3

We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to MSDL. MSDL was compared to 235 industry peers in the Capital Markets industry. While MSDL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. MSDL has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year MSDL was profitable.
In the past year MSDL has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
MSDL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMSDL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -500M -1B -1.5B

1.2 Ratios

MSDL has a Return On Assets of 4.95%. This is in the better half of the industry: MSDL outperforms 68.51% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 10.65%, MSDL is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.40% of the companies in the same industry.
MSDL has a Return On Invested Capital (4.43%) which is in line with its industry peers.
MSDL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.33%. This is below the industry average of 7.84%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.43%) for MSDL is above the 3 year average (4.33%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.95%
ROE 10.65%
ROIC 4.43%
ROA(3y)4.71%
ROA(5y)N/A
ROE(3y)9.53%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.33%
ROIC(5y)N/A
MSDL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMSDL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2021 2022 2023 2024 2 4 6 8 10

1.3 Margins

MSDL has a better Profit Margin (46.26%) than 90.64% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MSDL has declined.
MSDL has a Operating Margin of 51.25%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MSDL outperforms 86.38% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MSDL has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 50.14%, MSDL is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.60% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MSDL has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 51.25%
PM (TTM) 46.26%
GM 50.14%
OM growth 3Y-4.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-9.32%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.84%
GM growth 5YN/A
MSDL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMSDL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

MSDL has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
MSDL has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
MSDL Yearly Shares OutstandingMSDL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M
MSDL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMSDL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.79, we must say that MSDL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.79, MSDL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.96% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.11 is on the high side and indicates that MSDL has dependencies on debt financing.
MSDL has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.11. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MSDL outperforms 45.11% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.11
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.79
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
MSDL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMSDL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B -1B

2.3 Liquidity

MSDL has a Current Ratio of 1.22. This is a normal value and indicates that MSDL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MSDL (1.22) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MSDL has a Quick Ratio of 1.22. This is a normal value and indicates that MSDL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MSDL's Quick ratio of 1.22 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MSDL outperforms 54.04% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.22
Quick Ratio 1.22
MSDL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMSDL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

MSDL shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.08%.
MSDL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 37.13% yearly.
MSDL shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 13.14%.
Measured over the past years, MSDL shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 51.43% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.08%
EPS 3Y37.13%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-17.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.14%
Revenue growth 3Y51.43%
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%2.38%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -7.85% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -4.49% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-15.34%
EPS Next 2Y-9.3%
EPS Next 3Y-7.85%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-5.46%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.78%
Revenue Next 3Y-4.49%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
MSDL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMSDL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 100M 200M 300M 400M
MSDL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMSDL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

MSDL is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 8.32.
MSDL's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. MSDL is cheaper than 82.98% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of MSDL to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.46), we can say MSDL is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.66, which indicates a very decent valuation of MSDL.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MSDL indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MSDL is cheaper than 78.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.44. MSDL is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.32
Fwd PE 9.66
MSDL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMSDL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
MSDL Per share dataMSDL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

A cheap valuation may be justified as MSDL's earnings are expected to decrease with -7.85% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-9.3%
EPS Next 3Y-7.85%

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 11.17%, MSDL is a good candidate for dividend investing.
MSDL's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 8.00.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, MSDL pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 11.17%

5.2 History

MSDL is new to the dividend game and has less than 3 years of track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
MSDL Yearly Dividends per shareMSDL Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

5.3 Sustainability

MSDL pays out 95.61% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP95.61%
EPS Next 2Y-9.3%
EPS Next 3Y-7.85%
MSDL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMSDL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -500M -1B -1.5B
MSDL Dividend Payout.MSDL Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MSDL Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MORGAN STANLEY DIRECT LENDIN

NYSE:MSDL (7/22/2025, 2:25:19 PM)

19.79

+0.19 (+0.97%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryCapital Markets
Earnings (Last)05-08 2025-05-08/amc
Earnings (Next)08-07 2025-08-07/amc
Inst Owners25.55%
Inst Owner Change-0.04%
Ins Owners0.21%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.72B
Analysts73.33
Price Target20.66 (4.4%)
Short Float %0.56%
Short Ratio1.23
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 11.17%
Yearly Dividend1.91
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP95.61%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date06-30 2025-06-30 (0.5)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.16%
Max EPS beat(2)-7.31%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-4.34%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.16%
Max EPS beat(4)0.79%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-5.98%
Min Revenue beat(2)-9.25%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.72%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-9.25%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.94%
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)0.62%
PT rev (3m)-3.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.76%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.08%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)7.93%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.32
Fwd PE 9.66
P/S 4.12
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 0.95
P/tB 0.95
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)2.38
EY12.03%
EPS(NY)2.05
Fwd EY10.35%
FCF(TTM)-3.28
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.28
OCFYN/A
SpS4.8
BVpS20.86
TBVpS20.86
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.95%
ROE 10.65%
ROCE 5.6%
ROIC 4.43%
ROICexc 4.51%
ROICexgc 4.51%
OM 51.25%
PM (TTM) 46.26%
GM 50.14%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)4.71%
ROA(5y)N/A
ROE(3y)9.53%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.33%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.43%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.43%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)5.48%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y24.43%
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y24.43%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-4.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-9.32%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.84%
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.11
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.11
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 1.88
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.22
Quick Ratio 1.22
Altman-Z 0.79
F-Score3
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.08%
EPS 3Y37.13%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-17.46%
EPS Next Y-15.34%
EPS Next 2Y-9.3%
EPS Next 3Y-7.85%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.14%
Revenue growth 3Y51.43%
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%2.38%
Revenue Next Year-5.46%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.78%
Revenue Next 3Y-4.49%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y11.57%
EBIT growth 3Y45.02%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-345.62%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-345.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A