MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
189.865 USD
+0.44 (+0.23%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MPC. MPC was compared to 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets (3.53%) which is in line with its industry peers.
MPC has a better Return On Equity (17.56%) than 82.78% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 9.41%, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 80.38% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is below the industry average of 21.47%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a Profit Margin (2.13%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.97%, MPC is doing worse than 65.55% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC's Gross Margin of 10.43% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 70.81% of its industry peers.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.14. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC has a Altman-Z score of 3.14. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 82.78% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.23. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 57.42% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.64) is worse than 77.03% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.14 |
ROIC/WACC1.17
WACC8.04%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a Current ratio of 1.19. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 53.11% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.73, MPC is doing worse than 64.11% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.10% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.85%.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 20.37% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -2.18% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.32, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MPC.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as MPC.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.37.
MPC is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.28.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.20. MPC is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MPC.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)6.51
PEG (5Y)1.8
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.09%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.93, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.09% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
39.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
NYSE:MPC (12/4/2025, 11:02:53 AM)
189.865
+0.44 (+0.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-4.68%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.21%
Market Cap57.07B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts74.17
Price Target203.03 (6.93%)
Short Float %2.41%
Short Ratio3.92
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.09% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)4.53%
PT rev (3m)7.85%
EPS NQ rev (1m)15.95%
EPS NQ rev (3m)80.57%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)10.56%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.6%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.28 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.72 | ||
| P/B | 3.48 | ||
| P/tB | 7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.81 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.95%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY7%
FCF(TTM)14.22
FCFY7.49%
OCF(TTM)24.59
OCFY12.95%
SpS449.94
BVpS54.54
TBVpS27.12
PEG (NY)6.51
PEG (5Y)1.8
Graham Number95.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.14 |
F-Score4
WACC8.04%
ROIC/WACC1.17
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.