MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
171.24 USD
-0.55 (-0.32%)
Overall MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated MPC against 207 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of MPC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. MPC is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year MPC was profitable.
- MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
- Each year in the past 5 years MPC had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- MPC's Return On Assets of 3.53% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 53.14% of its industry peers.
- Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 17.56%, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.54% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Return On Invested Capital of MPC (9.41%) is better than 81.16% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.94%.
- The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- MPC's Profit Margin of 2.13% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 40.58% of its industry peers.
- MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- The Operating Margin of MPC (4.97%) is worse than 64.25% of its industry peers.
- MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- The Gross Margin of MPC (10.43%) is worse than 70.53% of its industry peers.
- MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
- MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- An Altman-Z score of 3.09 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
- MPC has a better Altman-Z score (3.09) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.23. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 57.00% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
- The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.64) is worse than 75.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.09 |
ROIC/WACC1.16
WACC8.1%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.66% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- MPC has a worse Quick ratio (0.73) than 64.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.10% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
- Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the last year.
- Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.53% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
- MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.18% yearly.
EPS Next Y6.14%
EPS Next 2Y21.17%
EPS Next 3Y13.46%
EPS Next 5Y20.53%
Revenue Next Year-3.89%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.72%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- The Price/Earnings ratio is 22.83, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MPC.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.82, MPC is valued a bit cheaper.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.49, the valuation of MPC can be described as correct.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MPC is cheaper than 67.63% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 25.95. MPC is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.49 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.50% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates MPC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
- MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 13.46% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)3.72
PEG (5Y)1.62
EPS Next 2Y21.17%
EPS Next 3Y13.46%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.28%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.73, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, MPC pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.28% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
- MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
- 39.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
- MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y21.17%
EPS Next 3Y13.46%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MPC stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 22.83 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.14.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MPC stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 6.14% in the next year.