MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
183.12 USD
-0.28 (-0.15%)
182.84 USD
-0.28 (-0.15%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of MPC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 2.98%, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 49.76% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of MPC (14.83%) is better than 73.46% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.97%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.09% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.53%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC's Profit Margin of 1.75% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 60.19% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC has a worse Operating Margin (4.09%) than 66.82% of its industry peers.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC has a Gross Margin of 9.38%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 71.09% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.14. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.14, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.52% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.93, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.82% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
MPC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 76.78% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.14 |
ROIC/WACC0.99
WACC8.07%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.19, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.13% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.73. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 66.35% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -66.21%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.10% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -10.01% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 18.62% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -2.18% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-0.13%
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
EPS Next 5Y18.62%
Revenue Next Year-7.8%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.24%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 28.79, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MPC.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.50, MPC is valued at the same level.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.75 indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
MPC is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.99, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.75 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 66.82% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.64 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.97% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.04
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.15, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, MPC is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
46.88% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
183.12
-0.28 (-0.15%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change0.11%
Market Cap55.67B
Analysts73.91
Price Target194.24 (6.07%)
Short Float %2.59%
Short Ratio4.25
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)3.18%
PT rev (3m)13.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.11%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.95%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.75 | ||
| P/S | 0.4 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.49 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.88 | ||
| P/B | 3.4 | ||
| P/tB | 6.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.64 |
EPS(TTM)6.36
EY3.47%
EPS(NY)12.42
Fwd EY6.78%
FCF(TTM)14.66
FCFY8.01%
OCF(TTM)23.25
OCFY12.7%
SpS457.35
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.04
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.14 |
F-Score4
WACC8.07%
ROIC/WACC0.99
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
EPS Next Y-0.13%
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
EPS Next 5Y18.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
Revenue Next Year-7.8%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.24%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%