MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
177.07 USD
+4.56 (+2.64%)
178.7 USD
+1.63 (+0.92%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MPC. MPC was compared to 208 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 3.53%, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.37% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 17.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 84.13% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Return On Invested Capital of 9.41%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 80.77% of its industry peers.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is below the industry average of 21.28%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (9.41%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.13%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.38% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC has a worse Operating Margin (4.97%) than 64.42% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
With a Gross Margin value of 10.43%, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 70.67% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.10. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of MPC (3.10) is better than 84.62% of its industry peers.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.23. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 7.23 years to pay back of all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio (7.23) which is in line with its industry peers.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.1 |
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC7.85%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.19, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.37% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 63.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.10% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 20.37% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.85%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue Next Year-3.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 23.61 indicates a rather expensive valuation of MPC.
MPC's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.00), we can say MPC is valued inline with the index average.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.05, MPC is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 64.42% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.70.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.05 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.71% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.13% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.4
PEG (5Y)1.67
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.46%.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.96.
MPC's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 39.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
177.07
+4.56 (+2.64%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners75.49%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change-0.05%
Market Cap53.23B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts73.33
Price Target205.8 (16.23%)
Short Float %3.26%
Short Ratio4.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)1.36%
PT rev (3m)5.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.59%
EPS NQ rev (3m)67.05%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.42%
EPS NY rev (3m)10%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)7.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.05 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.45 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.2 | ||
| P/B | 3.25 | ||
| P/tB | 6.53 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY4.24%
EPS(NY)14.69
Fwd EY8.3%
FCF(TTM)14.22
FCFY8.03%
OCF(TTM)24.59
OCFY13.89%
SpS449.94
BVpS54.54
TBVpS27.12
PEG (NY)2.4
PEG (5Y)1.67
Graham Number95.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.1 |
F-Score4
WACC7.85%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y9.85%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-3.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year88.48%
EBIT Next 3Y24.88%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MPC stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 23.61 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.25.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MPC stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 9.85% in the next year.