MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
180.15 USD
+0.44 (+0.24%)
180.15 USD
0 (0%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years MPC had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.98%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.28% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.83%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.25% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Return On Invested Capital of 7.97% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 70.33% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.91%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 1.75%, MPC is doing worse than 60.29% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.09%, MPC is doing worse than 67.94% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 9.38%, MPC is doing worse than 71.77% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.13 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.13, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 82.78% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.93, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.42% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.64, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 76.56% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.13 |
ROIC/WACC0.93
WACC8.59%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.19, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.11% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a worse Quick ratio (0.73) than 66.03% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -66.21% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
The Revenue for MPC has decreased by -10.01% in the past year. This is quite bad
MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.44% yearly.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.70% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.62%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
EPS Next 5Y17.44%
Revenue Next Year-6.98%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.63%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
MPC is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 28.33.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: MPC is more expensive than 60.77% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.90. MPC is around the same levels.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.54, MPC is valued correctly.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
MPC is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.52, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
66.99% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.29 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.51 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 16.63% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.01
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.03%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.05, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.32, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.03% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 46.88% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
180.15
+0.44 (+0.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.67%
Inst Owner Change-3.89%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change0.88%
Market Cap54.77B
Analysts74.78
Price Target188.26 (4.5%)
Short Float %2.58%
Short Ratio3.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.03% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)1.38%
PT rev (3m)18.58%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.6%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.68%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.34%
EPS NY rev (3m)13.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.75%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.38%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.29 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.75 | ||
| P/B | 3.34 | ||
| P/tB | 6.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.51 |
EPS(TTM)6.36
EY3.53%
EPS(NY)11.59
Fwd EY6.44%
FCF(TTM)14.66
FCFY8.14%
OCF(TTM)23.25
OCFY12.91%
SpS457.35
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.01
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.13 |
F-Score4
WACC8.59%
ROIC/WACC0.93
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
EPS Next Y-6.62%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
EPS Next 5Y17.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
Revenue Next Year-6.98%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.63%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year72.39%
EBIT Next 3Y27.61%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%