MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
196.9 USD
-3.23 (-1.61%)
196.9 USD
0 (0%)
Overall MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated MPC against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 3.53%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.86% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 17.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 80.95% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 9.41%, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 79.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.85%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a worse Profit Margin (2.13%) than 60.00% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.97%, MPC is doing worse than 65.24% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC's Gross Margin of 10.43% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 70.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.18. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 3.18, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.86% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.23, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.67% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.64, MPC is doing worse than 76.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.18 |
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC7.83%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.86% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 64.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.10% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.41% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 26.25, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MPC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 60.00% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.34.
MPC is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.81.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
MPC is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.43, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.81 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MPC.
65.71% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)6.75
PEG (5Y)1.86
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.04%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.89, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 39.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
196.9
-3.23 (-1.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-4.33%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.21%
Market Cap59.86B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts74.17
Price Target201.62 (2.4%)
Short Float %2.43%
Short Ratio4.14
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)3.8%
PT rev (3m)6.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.03%
EPS NY rev (3m)16.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.49%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.81 | ||
| P/S | 0.44 | ||
| P/FCF | 14 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.1 | ||
| P/B | 3.65 | ||
| P/tB | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.81%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY6.75%
FCF(TTM)14.06
FCFY7.14%
OCF(TTM)24.31
OCFY12.35%
SpS444.88
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)6.75
PEG (5Y)1.86
Graham Number95.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.18 |
F-Score4
WACC7.83%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.