MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MPC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US56585A1025 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 208 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of MPC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. MPC is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets of 2.98%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 47.60% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of MPC (14.83%) is better than 72.12% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.97%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.27% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is significantly below the industry average of 23.52%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(7.97%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC's Profit Margin of 1.75% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 62.02% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC has a Operating Margin of 4.09%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 68.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 9.38%, MPC is doing worse than 72.60% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.07 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.07, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.65% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio of 6.93. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 55.77% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 76.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.07 |
ROIC/WACC0.93
WACC8.55%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC's Current ratio of 1.19 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 53.37% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of MPC (0.73) is worse than 66.35% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -66.21% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
MPC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -10.01%.
MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.91% yearly.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.70% yearly.
EPS Next Y-10.51%
EPS Next 2Y13.69%
EPS Next 3Y15.2%
EPS Next 5Y17.92%
Revenue Next Year-7.67%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.58%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 25.09 indicates a quite expensive valuation of MPC.
MPC's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.73.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.22, MPC is valued correctly.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.61.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.22 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.63% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.87 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 15.20% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.78
EPS Next 2Y13.69%
EPS Next 3Y15.2%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.30%.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.31.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.39, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
46.88% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y13.69%
EPS Next 3Y15.2%
NYSE:MPC (8/13/2025, 12:10:06 PM)
159.58
+0.47 (+0.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.67%
Inst Owner Change-1.77%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change0.88%
Market Cap49.02B
Analysts74.78
Price Target189.66 (18.85%)
Short Float %3.19%
Short Ratio3.99
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)10.72%
PT rev (3m)19.46%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.62%
EPS NQ rev (3m)2.64%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)20.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.35%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.25%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.22 | ||
| P/S | 0.35 | ||
| P/FCF | 11 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.94 | ||
| P/B | 2.99 | ||
| P/tB | 6.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.87 |
EPS(TTM)6.36
EY3.99%
EPS(NY)12.07
Fwd EY7.56%
FCF(TTM)14.51
FCFY9.09%
OCF(TTM)23.01
OCFY14.42%
SpS452.6
BVpS53.37
TBVpS26.54
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.78
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.07 |
F-Score4
WACC8.55%
ROIC/WACC0.93
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
EPS Next Y-10.51%
EPS Next 2Y13.69%
EPS Next 3Y15.2%
EPS Next 5Y17.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
Revenue Next Year-7.67%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.58%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year72.39%
EBIT Next 3Y27.61%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%