MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MPC • US56585A1025

Current stock price

226.24 USD
+3.21 (+1.44%)
At close:
226 USD
-0.24 (-0.11%)
After Hours:

This MPC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. MPC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years MPC has always been profitable.
  • In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • MPC's Return On Assets of 4.82% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 62.20% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of MPC (23.35%) is better than 87.08% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.66%) than 85.17% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 22.60%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROIC 10.66%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of MPC (2.99%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has declined.
  • MPC has a worse Operating Margin (6.01%) than 62.20% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has declined.
  • The Gross Margin of MPC (11.55%) is worse than 69.86% of its industry peers.
  • MPC's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. MPC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
  • MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.25 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MPC's Altman-Z score of 3.25 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 79.43% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.90. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 6.90 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.90, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.24% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.76, MPC is doing worse than 75.12% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Altman-Z 3.25
ROIC/WACC1.48
WACC7.21%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • MPC's Current ratio of 1.26 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 55.02% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.26. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of MPC (0.74) is worse than 63.64% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MPC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 15.63% over the past year.
  • The earnings per share for MPC have been decreasing by -25.91% on average. This is quite bad
  • MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.80%.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.39% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 22.08% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.69% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y53.22%
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue Next Year-0.28%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 3Y0.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 10 20

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5

4. MPC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 20.95, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MPC.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.53. MPC is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • MPC is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.67.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 64.11% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 37.95. MPC is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.95
Fwd PE 13.67
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MPC is cheaper than 60.77% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of MPC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MPC is cheaper than 71.77% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 13.98
EV/EBITDA 8.35
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MPC's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.33% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%

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7

5. MPC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.79%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.23.
  • MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.79%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.94%, which is quite nice.
  • MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years14
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • MPC pays out 28.20% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP28.2%
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MPC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (4/16/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 226 -0.24 (-0.11%)

226.24

+3.21 (+1.44%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners77.09%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change0.21%
Market Cap66.63B
Revenue(TTM)135.05B
Net Income(TTM)4.04B
Analysts72.8
Price Target230.76 (2%)
Short Float %2.32%
Short Ratio2.5
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.79%
Yearly Dividend3.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
DP28.2%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date02-18
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)17.37%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)40.04%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)27.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)55.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)575.13%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)392%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)299.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.28%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.59%
PT rev (1m)13.08%
PT rev (3m)12.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)69.06%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)27.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)12.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.13%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.91%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.95
Fwd PE 13.67
P/S 0.49
P/FCF 13.98
P/OCF 8.07
P/B 3.85
P/tB 12.7
EV/EBITDA 8.35
EPS(TTM)10.8
EY4.77%
EPS(NY)16.55
Fwd EY7.31%
FCF(TTM)16.19
FCFY7.15%
OCF(TTM)28.02
OCFY12.39%
SpS458.57
BVpS58.79
TBVpS17.81
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number119.525 (-47.17%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROCE 12.63%
ROIC 10.66%
ROICexc 11.31%
ROICexgc 14.12%
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
FCFM 3.53%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
ROICexc(3y)14.48%
ROICexc(5y)15.91%
ROICexgc(3y)17.29%
ROICexgc(5y)18.8%
ROCE(3y)15.34%
ROCE(5y)16.33%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-27.48%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.61
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Debt/EBITDA 2.68
Cap/Depr 107.23%
Cap/Sales 2.58%
Interest Coverage 6.66
Cash Conversion 72.59%
Profit Quality 117.91%
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
Altman-Z 3.25
F-Score7
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC1.48
Cap/Depr(3y)80.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)71.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.88%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.64%
Profit Quality(3y)140.82%
Profit Quality(5y)109.66%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
EPS Next Y53.22%
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%
Revenue Next Year-0.28%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 3Y0.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%
EBIT growth 1Y19.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year91.26%
EBIT Next 3Y21.08%
EBIT Next 5Y12.5%
FCF growth 1Y-22.26%
FCF growth 3Y-30.07%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4.75%
OCF growth 3Y-20.4%
OCF growth 5Y27.82%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MPC.


Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the valuation of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 20.95 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.85.


How sustainable is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 28.2%.