MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MPC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US56585A1025 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MPC. MPC was compared to 213 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of MPC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. MPC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of MPC (2.98%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 14.83%, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.42% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Return On Invested Capital of 7.97%. This is in the better half of the industry: MPC outperforms 62.91% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 25.88%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC's Profit Margin of 1.75% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 62.44% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
The Operating Margin of MPC (4.09%) is worse than 68.54% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 9.38%, MPC is doing worse than 70.89% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is still creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.09 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of MPC (3.09) is better than 82.63% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.93 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 59.62% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
MPC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 78.40% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.09 |
ROIC/WACC0.82
WACC9.74%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.52% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a worse Quick ratio (0.73) than 64.32% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -67.43% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -6.18%.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.43%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-109.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.18%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-4.1%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.98% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.70% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-17.58%
EPS Next 2Y12.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.55%
EPS Next 5Y16.98%
Revenue Next Year-7.33%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.82%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.33%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 24.77, MPC is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit more expensive than 60.09% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.60, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
MPC is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.70.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.43), we can say MPC is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
MPC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MPC is cheaper than 71.83% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.29 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 13.55% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.76
EPS Next 2Y12.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.55%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.20%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 7.05.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 46.88% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y12.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.55%
161.53
-0.74 (-0.46%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners74.84%
Inst Owner Change0.17%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner Change1.06%
Market Cap50.32B
Analysts76.52
Price Target158.76 (-1.71%)
Short Float %2.72%
Short Ratio2.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)-5.92%
PT rev (3m)-7.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)8.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.85%
EPS NY rev (1m)11.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.78%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.23%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.73%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.6%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.7 | ||
| P/S | 0.36 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.29 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.12 | ||
| P/B | 3.07 | ||
| P/tB | 6.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
EPS(TTM)6.52
EY4.04%
EPS(NY)11.79
Fwd EY7.3%
FCF(TTM)14.31
FCFY8.86%
OCF(TTM)22.69
OCFY14.05%
SpS446.32
BVpS52.63
TBVpS26.17
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.09 |
F-Score4
WACC9.74%
ROIC/WACC0.82
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.43%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-109.3%
EPS Next Y-17.58%
EPS Next 2Y12.37%
EPS Next 3Y13.55%
EPS Next 5Y16.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.18%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-4.1%
Revenue Next Year-7.33%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.82%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.33%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year62.47%
EBIT Next 3Y26.01%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%