MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
174.94 USD
+9.8 (+5.93%)
175 USD
+0.06 (+0.03%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 208 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 3.53%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.37% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 17.56%, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.13% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 9.41%, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.77% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is below the industry average of 21.28%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (9.41%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a Profit Margin (2.13%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.97%, MPC is doing worse than 64.42% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
The Gross Margin of MPC (10.43%) is worse than 70.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.08 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 3.08, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 84.62% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.23. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 7.23 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 7.23, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.21% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.08 |
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC7.89%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.37% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.73, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 63.94% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.37% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.85%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue Next Year-3.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 23.33, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MPC.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as MPC.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.87, MPC is valued at the same level.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.91, the valuation of MPC can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.23% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.46, MPC is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MPC.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 71.63% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.08 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.13% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.37
PEG (5Y)1.65
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.46%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.96.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, MPC pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
39.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
174.94
+9.8 (+5.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners75.49%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change-0.05%
Market Cap52.59B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts73.33
Price Target205.8 (17.64%)
Short Float %3.26%
Short Ratio4.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)1.36%
PT rev (3m)5.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.59%
EPS NQ rev (3m)67.05%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.42%
EPS NY rev (3m)10%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)7.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.91 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.11 | ||
| P/B | 3.21 | ||
| P/tB | 6.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.08 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY4.29%
EPS(NY)14.69
Fwd EY8.4%
FCF(TTM)14.22
FCFY8.13%
OCF(TTM)24.59
OCFY14.05%
SpS449.94
BVpS54.54
TBVpS27.12
PEG (NY)2.37
PEG (5Y)1.65
Graham Number95.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.08 |
F-Score4
WACC7.89%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y9.85%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-3.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year88.48%
EBIT Next 3Y24.88%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MPC stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 23.33 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.21.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MPC stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 9.85% in the next year.