MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
190.87 USD
+3.62 (+1.93%)
191.5 USD
+0.63 (+0.33%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of MPC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. MPC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets of 2.98%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 49.52% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 14.83%. This is in the better half of the industry: MPC outperforms 72.86% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of MPC (7.97%) is better than 70.48% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.71%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(7.97%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a worse Profit Margin (1.75%) than 60.00% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a Operating Margin value of 4.09%, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 67.62% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
With a Gross Margin value of 9.38%, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 71.43% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.16. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC has a Altman-Z score of 3.16. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 6.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.93, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.64, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 76.67% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.16 |
ROIC/WACC0.97
WACC8.24%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC's Current ratio of 1.19 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 53.33% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of MPC (0.73) is worse than 65.71% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -66.21% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
MPC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -10.01%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.44% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.70% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-6.62%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
EPS Next 5Y17.44%
Revenue Next Year-8.11%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.5%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 30.01 indicates a quite expensive valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: MPC is more expensive than 60.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
MPC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.41, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 16.46, which indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.87), we can say MPC is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
MPC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MPC is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.02 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.89 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 16.63% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.13
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.97%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.00.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.97% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 46.88% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
190.87
+3.62 (+1.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.67%
Inst Owner Change-3.89%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap58.03B
Analysts73.91
Price Target192.02 (0.6%)
Short Float %2.68%
Short Ratio4.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.97% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)1.24%
PT rev (3m)12.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.75%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.22%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.49%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.46 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.02 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.21 | ||
| P/B | 3.54 | ||
| P/tB | 7.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.89 |
EPS(TTM)6.36
EY3.33%
EPS(NY)11.59
Fwd EY6.07%
FCF(TTM)14.66
FCFY7.68%
OCF(TTM)23.25
OCFY12.18%
SpS457.35
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.13
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.16 |
F-Score4
WACC8.24%
ROIC/WACC0.97
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
EPS Next Y-6.62%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
EPS Next 5Y17.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
Revenue Next Year-8.11%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.5%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year72.39%
EBIT Next 3Y27.61%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%