MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MPC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US56585A1025 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
MPC's Return On Assets of 2.98% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 47.39% of its industry peers.
MPC has a better Return On Equity (14.83%) than 72.04% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Return On Invested Capital of 7.97%. This is in the better half of the industry: MPC outperforms 65.88% of its industry peers.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is significantly below the industry average of 23.70%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of MPC (1.75%) is worse than 61.61% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC's Operating Margin of 4.09% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 68.25% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC's Gross Margin of 9.38% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 71.56% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.12. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC has a Altman-Z score of 3.12. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 83.41% of its industry peers.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 6.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio (6.93) which is in line with its industry peers.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.64, MPC is doing worse than 76.78% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.12 |
ROIC/WACC0.98
WACC8.13%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.55% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.73. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 67.30% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -67.43% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -6.18% in the past year.
MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.43%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-109.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.18%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-4.1%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.91% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.70% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-10.86%
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y17.92%
Revenue Next Year-7.66%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.53%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 27.00, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MPC.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as MPC.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.28. MPC is around the same levels.
MPC is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.55.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.76.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
MPC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MPC is cheaper than 68.72% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 15.23% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.92
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.17%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.66, MPC is paying slightly less dividend.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 46.88% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
176.05
+1.59 (+0.91%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners76.81%
Inst Owner Change0.22%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change1.09%
Market Cap54.08B
Analysts77.39
Price Target171.3 (-2.7%)
Short Float %3.01%
Short Ratio3.52
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)7.9%
PT rev (3m)0.74%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.6%
EPS NQ rev (3m)8.47%
EPS NY rev (1m)8.16%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.34%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.36%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.55 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.65 | ||
| P/B | 3.3 | ||
| P/tB | 6.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
EPS(TTM)6.52
EY3.7%
EPS(NY)12.1
Fwd EY6.87%
FCF(TTM)14.51
FCFY8.24%
OCF(TTM)23.01
OCFY13.07%
SpS452.6
BVpS53.37
TBVpS26.54
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.92
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.12 |
F-Score4
WACC8.13%
ROIC/WACC0.98
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.43%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-109.3%
EPS Next Y-10.86%
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y17.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.18%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-4.1%
Revenue Next Year-7.66%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.53%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year67.08%
EBIT Next 3Y25.56%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%