MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MPC • US56585A1025

211.98 USD
+2.16 (+1.03%)
At close: Mar 3, 2026
208 USD
-3.98 (-1.88%)
After Hours: 3/3/2026, 8:04:00 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This MPC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated MPC against 207 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. Finally MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

4

1. MPC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year MPC was profitable.
  • In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
  • Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • MPC has a Return On Assets (3.46%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 16.84%, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.59%) than 76.81% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is below the industry average of 22.19%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (8.59%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.46%
ROE 16.84%
ROIC 8.59%
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

  • MPC has a Profit Margin of 2.13%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
  • MPC has a Operating Margin of 4.97%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 64.25% of its industry peers.
  • MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
  • MPC's Gross Margin of 10.43% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 71.01% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.97%
PM (TTM) 2.13%
GM 10.43%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. MPC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
  • MPC has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.19. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of MPC (3.19) is better than 80.68% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.68. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 7.68 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • MPC's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 57.49% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.83. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • MPC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.83. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 76.81% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.83
Debt/FCF 7.68
Altman-Z 3.19
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC7.19%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.32 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.32, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.94% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.32. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.79, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.58% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.32
Quick Ratio 0.79
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. MPC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • MPC shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 15.63%, which is quite good.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -25.91% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 22.08% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.69% on average per year.
EPS Next Y20.88%
EPS Next 2Y12.41%
EPS Next 3Y18.28%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue Next Year-2.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.53%
Revenue Next 3Y0.76%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 10 20

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5

4. MPC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 19.63, the valuation of MPC can be described as rather expensive.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.83.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.24 indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
  • MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MPC is cheaper than 61.84% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.95, MPC is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 19.63
Fwd PE 16.24
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MPC.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 70.05% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 14.62
EV/EBITDA 9.23
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MPC's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 18.28% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.94
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y12.41%
EPS Next 3Y18.28%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MPC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.47, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.99%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
  • MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • MPC pays out 39.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y12.41%
EPS Next 3Y18.28%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MPC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (3/3/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 208 -3.98 (-1.88%)

211.98

+2.16 (+1.03%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-04
Inst Owners75.49%
Inst Owner Change-0.62%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change-0.13%
Market Cap62.53B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts72.8
Price Target204.06 (-3.74%)
Short Float %2.99%
Short Ratio3.7
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.99%
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date02-18
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)0.86%
PT rev (3m)0.5%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.3%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.4%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.12%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.02%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.48%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 19.63
Fwd PE 16.24
P/S 0.46
P/FCF 14.62
P/OCF 8.46
P/B 3.66
P/tB 12.46
EV/EBITDA 9.23
EPS(TTM)10.8
EY5.09%
EPS(NY)13.06
Fwd EY6.16%
FCF(TTM)14.49
FCFY6.84%
OCF(TTM)25.05
OCFY11.82%
SpS458.48
BVpS57.96
TBVpS17.01
PEG (NY)0.94
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number118.67
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.46%
ROE 16.84%
ROCE 10.42%
ROIC 8.59%
ROICexc 8.96%
ROICexgc 11.14%
OM 4.97%
PM (TTM) 2.13%
GM 10.43%
FCFM 3.16%
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.62
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.83
Debt/FCF 7.68
Debt/EBITDA 3.13
Cap/Depr 95.88%
Cap/Sales 2.3%
Interest Coverage 5.34
Cash Conversion 74.12%
Profit Quality 148.52%
Current Ratio 1.32
Quick Ratio 0.79
Altman-Z 3.19
F-Score5
WACC7.19%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
EPS Next Y20.88%
EPS Next 2Y12.41%
EPS Next 3Y18.28%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%
Revenue Next Year-2.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.53%
Revenue Next 3Y0.76%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year87.96%
EBIT Next 3Y27.1%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.


Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of MPC stock?

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MPC stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 19.63 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.66.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MPC stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 20.88% in the next year.