Model N Inc (MODN) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MODN • US6075251024

30 USD
+0.03 (+0.1%)
At close: Jun 26, 2024
30.002 USD
+0 (+0.01%)
After Hours: 6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This MODN fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

4

MODN gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 277 industry peers in the Software industry. While MODN seems to be doing ok healthwise, there are quite some concerns on its profitability. MODN is not priced too expensively while it is growing strongly. Keep and eye on this one!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

3

1. MODN Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MODN had positive earnings in the past year.
  • MODN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • MODN had negative earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • MODN had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
MODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20M -20M

1.2 Ratios

  • MODN has a better Return On Assets (0.05%) than 64.86% of its industry peers.
  • MODN's Return On Equity of 0.19% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MODN outperforms 67.03% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
MODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -20 -40 -60 -80

1.3 Margins

  • MODN has a better Profit Margin (0.10%) than 65.58% of its industry peers.
  • MODN's Gross Margin of 57.06% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MODN is outperformed by 64.13% of its industry peers.
  • MODN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
MODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40

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5

2. MODN Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MODN does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
  • The number of shares outstanding for MODN has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • MODN has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
MODN Yearly Shares OutstandingMODN Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M
MODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

2.2 Solvency

  • MODN has an Altman-Z score of 2.15. This is not the best score and indicates that MODN is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MODN's Altman-Z score of 2.15 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MODN outperforms 48.91% of its industry peers.
  • MODN has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.68. This is a neutral value as MODN would need 4.68 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 4.68, MODN perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.42% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.05 is on the high side and indicates that MODN has dependencies on debt financing.
  • MODN has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (2.05) than 83.33% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Altman-Z 2.15
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.78%
MODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 3.86 indicates that MODN has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • MODN's Current ratio of 3.86 is amongst the best of the industry. MODN outperforms 81.16% of its industry peers.
  • MODN has a Quick Ratio of 3.86. This indicates that MODN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • MODN has a better Quick ratio (3.86) than 81.16% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
MODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

7

3. MODN Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 34.09% over the past year.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 94.38% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
  • Looking at the last year, MODN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 8.57% in the last year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 10.05% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, MODN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.28% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
MODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M
MODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0.5 -0.5 1 1.5

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4

4. MODN Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 25.42, the valuation of MODN can be described as expensive.
  • 77.54% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MODN, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • MODN is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.25, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.66, MODN is valued on the expensive side.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MODN is valued a bit cheaper than 79.35% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 24.39. MODN is around the same levels.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
MODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

  • MODN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MODN is valued cheaper than 85.14% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 19.69
EV/EBITDA 223.88
MODN Per share dataMODN EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as MODN's earnings are expected to grow with 19.28% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. MODN Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for MODN!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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MODN Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Model N Inc

NYSE:MODN (6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 30.002 +0 (+0.01%)

30

+0.03 (+0.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)05-06
Earnings (Next)08-06
Inst Owners10.07%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners11.38%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.18B
Revenue(TTM)256.31M
Net Income(TTM)265.00K
Analysts50
Price Target30.6 (2%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-11.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.22%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)5.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(4)40.97%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.91%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)91.22%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)99.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.41%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.12%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.06%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.65%
Revenue beat(12)10
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.8%
Revenue beat(16)14
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.33%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
P/S 4.61
P/FCF 19.69
P/OCF 19.47
P/B 8.63
P/tB 26.54
EV/EBITDA 223.88
EPS(TTM)1.18
EY3.93%
EPS(NY)1.53
Fwd EY5.09%
FCF(TTM)1.52
FCFY5.08%
OCF(TTM)1.54
OCFY5.14%
SpS6.5
BVpS3.48
TBVpS1.13
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
FCFM 23.43%
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Debt/EBITDA 55.75
Cap/Depr 8.72%
Cap/Sales 0.26%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion 1204.2%
Profit Quality 22664.5%
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
Altman-Z 2.15
F-Score7
WACC9.78%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)9.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)8.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y79.94%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year33.6%
EBIT Next 3Y26.48%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y220.67%
FCF growth 3Y18.73%
FCF growth 5Y59.11%
OCF growth 1Y213.25%
OCF growth 3Y17.87%
OCF growth 5Y56.42%

Model N Inc / MODN FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for Model N Inc?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MODN.


Can you provide the valuation status for Model N Inc?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to Model N Inc (MODN). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is Model N Inc (MODN) stock?

Model N Inc (MODN) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MODN stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Model N Inc (MODN) is expected to grow by 17.87% in the next year.