KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:KDP - US49271V1008 - Common Stock
25.84 USD
+0.1 (+0.39%)
25.7802 USD
-0.06 (-0.23%)
KDP gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 33 industry peers in the Beverages industry. KDP has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. KDP has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year KDP was profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
KDP had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
KDP has a Return On Assets (2.83%) which is in line with its industry peers.
KDP has a Return On Equity of 6.15%. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 60.61% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 5.48%, KDP is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for KDP is significantly below the industry average of 10.78%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.48%) for KDP is above the 3 year average (5.40%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of KDP (9.75%) is better than 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of KDP has declined.
The Operating Margin of KDP (21.90%) is better than 78.79% of its industry peers.
KDP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 54.93%, KDP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), KDP is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for KDP has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
KDP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
KDP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
KDP has an Altman-Z score of 1.29. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of KDP (1.29) is worse than 63.64% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of KDP is 10.64, which is on the high side as it means it would take KDP, 10.64 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 10.64, KDP is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.64 indicates that KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of KDP (0.64) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.29 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC6.88%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.64 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.64, KDP is not doing good in the industry: 87.88% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
KDP has a Quick Ratio of 0.64. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of KDP (0.38) is worse than 81.82% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.53% over the past year.
KDP shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 9.49% yearly.
KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.63%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, KDP will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.24% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.12% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y7.51%
EPS Next 2Y7%
EPS Next 3Y6.92%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.24%
Revenue Next 3Y4.84%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.92, the valuation of KDP can be described as correct.
78.79% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than KDP, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.86, KDP is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.75, which indicates a very decent valuation of KDP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, KDP is valued a bit cheaper than 75.76% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of KDP to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.32), we can say KDP is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.75 |
4.2 Price Multiples
KDP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of KDP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: KDP is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.29 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.41 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.72
PEG (5Y)1.36
EPS Next 2Y7%
EPS Next 3Y6.92%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
KDP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.57%.
In the last 3 months the price of KDP has falen by -23.53%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.98, KDP pays a better dividend. On top of this KDP pays more dividend than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, KDP pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.57% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of KDP grows each year by 7.69%, which is quite nice.
KDP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
As KDP did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
79.95% of the earnings are spent on dividend by KDP. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of KDP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP79.95%
EPS Next 2Y7%
EPS Next 3Y6.92%
25.84
+0.1 (+0.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.21%
Inst Owner Change-0.03%
Ins Owners0.62%
Ins Owner Change-0.4%
Market Cap35.10B
Analysts75
Price Target36.07 (39.59%)
Short Float %2.2%
Short Ratio1.65
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.57% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP79.95%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.22%
Max EPS beat(2)8.75%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)2.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.55%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.66%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.86%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.29%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.86%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.42%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.23%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.37%
PT rev (1m)-8.78%
PT rev (3m)-10.19%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.06%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.12%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.89%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.75 | ||
| P/S | 2.23 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.29 | ||
| P/OCF | 16.58 | ||
| P/B | 1.4 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.41 |
EPS(TTM)2
EY7.74%
EPS(NY)2.2
Fwd EY8.51%
FCF(TTM)1.16
FCFY4.49%
OCF(TTM)1.56
OCFY6.03%
SpS11.6
BVpS18.39
TBVpS-14.05
PEG (NY)1.72
PEG (5Y)1.36
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROCE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 65.34% | ||
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% | ||
| FCFM | 9.99% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.29
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.01 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.16 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 102.54% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.29 |
F-Score6
WACC6.88%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
EPS Next Y7.51%
EPS Next 2Y7%
EPS Next 3Y6.92%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.24%
Revenue Next 3Y4.84%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-1.51%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year22.18%
EBIT Next 3Y10.39%
EBIT Next 5Y8.67%
FCF growth 1Y0.77%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y8.56%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%