KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:KDP - US49271V1008 - Common Stock
29.23 USD
+2.07 (+7.62%)
29.22 USD
-0.01 (-0.03%)
KDP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 33 industry peers in the Beverages industry. There are concerns on the financial health of KDP while its profitability can be described as average. KDP has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year KDP was profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
KDP had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
KDP's Return On Assets of 2.83% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 60.61% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of KDP (6.15%) is worse than 63.64% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.48%, KDP is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for KDP is significantly below the industry average of 10.75%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.40%) for KDP is below the current ROIC(5.48%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
KDP's Profit Margin of 9.75% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. KDP outperforms 69.70% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of KDP has declined.
The Operating Margin of KDP (21.90%) is better than 78.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of KDP has remained more or less at the same level.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 54.93%, KDP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.70% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of KDP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), KDP is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for KDP has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for KDP has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
KDP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.33, we must say that KDP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
KDP has a Altman-Z score of 1.33. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of KDP is 10.64, which is on the high side as it means it would take KDP, 10.64 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
KDP's Debt to FCF ratio of 10.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
KDP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.64. This is a neutral value indicating KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.64, KDP is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC6.86%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.64 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KDP's Current ratio of 0.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 87.88% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.38 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KDP has a Quick ratio of 0.38. This is amonst the worse of the industry: KDP underperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.53% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, KDP shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.49% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.63% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, KDP will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.24% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.12% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y7.45%
EPS Next 2Y7.07%
EPS Next 3Y7%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.24%
Revenue Next 3Y4.83%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 14.62, the valuation of KDP can be described as correct.
78.79% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than KDP, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
KDP's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.89.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.28 indicates a correct valuation of KDP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of KDP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: KDP is cheaper than 75.76% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.99. KDP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
KDP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of KDP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: KDP is cheaper than 60.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 25.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.85 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.96
PEG (5Y)1.54
EPS Next 2Y7.07%
EPS Next 3Y7%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
KDP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.34%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
KDP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.05. KDP pays more dividend than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.34% |
5.2 History
The dividend of KDP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.69%!
KDP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
KDP has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
79.95% of the earnings are spent on dividend by KDP. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
KDP's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP79.95%
EPS Next 2Y7.07%
EPS Next 3Y7%
29.23
+2.07 (+7.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.21%
Inst Owner Change-0.06%
Ins Owners0.62%
Ins Owner Change-0.4%
Market Cap39.71B
Revenue(TTM)15.76B
Net Income(TTM)1.54B
Analysts75
Price Target36.07 (23.4%)
Short Float %2.3%
Short Ratio1.51
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.34% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP79.95%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.22%
Max EPS beat(2)8.75%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)2.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.55%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.66%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.86%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.29%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.86%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.42%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.23%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.37%
PT rev (1m)-6.33%
PT rev (3m)-9.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.82%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.28 | ||
| P/S | 2.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 25.21 | ||
| P/OCF | 18.76 | ||
| P/B | 1.59 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.85 |
EPS(TTM)2
EY6.84%
EPS(NY)2.2
Fwd EY7.53%
FCF(TTM)1.16
FCFY3.97%
OCF(TTM)1.56
OCFY5.33%
SpS11.6
BVpS18.39
TBVpS-14.05
PEG (NY)1.96
PEG (5Y)1.54
Graham Number28.77
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROCE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 65.34% | ||
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% | ||
| FCFM | 9.99% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.29
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.01 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.16 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 102.54% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
F-Score6
WACC6.86%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
EPS Next Y7.45%
EPS Next 2Y7.07%
EPS Next 3Y7%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.24%
Revenue Next 3Y4.83%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-1.51%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year22.18%
EBIT Next 3Y10.39%
EBIT Next 5Y8.67%
FCF growth 1Y0.77%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y8.56%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC / KDP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for KDP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to KDP.
Can you provide the valuation status for KEURIG DR PEPPER INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of KDP stock?
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the valuation of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) is 14.62 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.59.
How sustainable is the dividend of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) stock?
The dividend rating of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 79.95%.