KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:KDP - US49271V1008 - Common Stock
35.135 USD
-0.07 (-0.18%)
35.13 USD
0 (-0.01%)
Taking everything into account, KDP scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. KDP was compared to 33 industry peers in the Beverages industry. KDP has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. KDP has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year KDP was profitable.
In the past year KDP had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP has been profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
KDP has a Return On Assets (2.83%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
KDP has a worse Return On Equity (6.15%) than 60.61% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.48%, KDP is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for KDP is significantly below the industry average of 11.01%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.40%) for KDP is below the current ROIC(5.48%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of KDP (9.75%) is better than 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of KDP has declined.
KDP has a Operating Margin of 21.90%. This is in the better half of the industry: KDP outperforms 78.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of KDP has remained more or less at the same level.
KDP's Gross Margin of 54.93% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. KDP outperforms 69.70% of its industry peers.
KDP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), KDP is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for KDP has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, KDP has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for KDP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.55, we must say that KDP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
KDP has a Altman-Z score (1.55) which is in line with its industry peers.
KDP has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.64. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as KDP would need 10.64 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 10.64, KDP is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.64 indicates that KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
KDP has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.64) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.55 |
ROIC/WACC0.74
WACC7.36%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.64 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KDP's Current ratio of 0.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 84.85% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.38 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KDP's Quick ratio of 0.38 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 81.82% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
KDP shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 7.53%.
Measured over the past years, KDP shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.49% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.63% in the past year.
KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, KDP will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.24% on average per year.
KDP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.12% yearly.
EPS Next Y7.64%
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue Next Year6.28%
Revenue Next 2Y5.23%
Revenue Next 3Y4.77%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 17.57, the valuation of KDP can be described as rather expensive.
KDP's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. KDP is cheaper than 75.76% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of KDP to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.24), we can say KDP is valued slightly cheaper.
KDP is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.97.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of KDP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: KDP is cheaper than 72.73% of the companies listed in the same industry.
KDP is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 35.82, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.97 |
4.2 Price Multiples
KDP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, KDP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.64% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 30.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.55 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates KDP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)2.3
PEG (5Y)1.85
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
KDP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.61%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
KDP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.79.
KDP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of KDP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.69%!
KDP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
KDP has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
79.95% of the earnings are spent on dividend by KDP. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
KDP's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP79.95%
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
35.135
-0.07 (-0.18%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.64%
Inst Owner Change7.42%
Ins Owners0.65%
Ins Owner Change-0.52%
Market Cap47.73B
Analysts77.69
Price Target39.54 (12.54%)
Short Float %2.15%
Short Ratio2.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP79.95%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.22%
Max EPS beat(2)8.75%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)2.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.55%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.66%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.86%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.29%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.86%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.42%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.23%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.37%
PT rev (1m)-0.39%
PT rev (3m)-0.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.18%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.35%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.91%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.47%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.48%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.97 | ||
| P/S | 3.03 | ||
| P/FCF | 30.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 22.55 | ||
| P/B | 1.91 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.55 |
EPS(TTM)2
EY5.69%
EPS(NY)2.2
Fwd EY6.26%
FCF(TTM)1.16
FCFY3.3%
OCF(TTM)1.56
OCFY4.44%
SpS11.6
BVpS18.39
TBVpS-14.05
PEG (NY)2.3
PEG (5Y)1.85
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROCE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 65.34% | ||
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% | ||
| FCFM | 9.99% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.29
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.01 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.16 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 102.54% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.55 |
F-Score6
WACC7.36%
ROIC/WACC0.74
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
EPS Next Y7.64%
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
Revenue Next Year6.28%
Revenue Next 2Y5.23%
Revenue Next 3Y4.77%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-1.51%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year21.61%
EBIT Next 3Y10.21%
EBIT Next 5Y8.67%
FCF growth 1Y0.77%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y8.56%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%