HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HGV - US43283X1054 - Common Stock
47.74 USD
+0.52 (+1.1%)
47.74 USD
0 (0%)
Overall HGV gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated HGV against 131 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and financial health of HGV have multiple concerns. HGV has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HGV was profitable.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years HGV 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years HGV always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.49%, HGV is doing worse than 63.36% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV has a Return On Equity (3.83%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 4.58%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.33% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 15.87%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 3.83% | ||
| ROIC | 4.58% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
HGV has a Profit Margin of 1.14%. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 62.60% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HGV has declined.
HGV has a Operating Margin of 12.09%. This is in the better half of the industry: HGV outperforms 64.12% of its industry peers.
HGV's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 23.38%, HGV is doing worse than 82.44% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 23.38% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HGV is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
HGV has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
HGV has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
HGV has an Altman-Z score of 1.05. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HGV has a Altman-Z score of 1.05. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 66.41% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV is 50.52, which is on the high side as it means it would take HGV, 50.52 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV (50.52) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.75 is on the high side and indicates that HGV has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 4.75, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 61.07% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 50.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.05 |
ROIC/WACC0.52
WACC8.85%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.38 indicates that HGV has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HGV has a better Current ratio (2.38) than 90.84% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.54 indicates that HGV may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.54, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 70.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HGV shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -61.54%.
HGV shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -28.63% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 13.01% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, HGV shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.54%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%1150%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.01%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%2.51%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 133.40% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.56% on average per year.
EPS Next Y470.09%
EPS Next 2Y209.8%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.58%
Revenue Next 2Y5.56%
Revenue Next 3Y3.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 86.80, HGV can be considered very expensive at the moment.
HGV's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.17. HGV is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.05, the valuation of HGV can be described as very reasonable.
HGV's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HGV is cheaper than 87.79% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.78, HGV is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 86.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.05 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HGV's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HGV is valued a bit cheaper than 63.36% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 30.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.67 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HGV's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 133.40% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y209.8%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HGV does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
47.74
+0.52 (+1.1%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.12%
Inst Owner Change-4.44%
Ins Owners1.3%
Ins Owner Change5.95%
Market Cap4.21B
Analysts72.31
Price Target54.63 (14.43%)
Short Float %9.55%
Short Ratio4.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-100.54%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-67.27%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-85.75%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-74.52%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-46.14%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.88%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.73%
Max Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.63%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.73%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.95%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.1%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)9.5%
PT rev (1m)8.93%
PT rev (3m)12.22%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.87%
EPS NQ rev (3m)4.78%
EPS NY rev (1m)-13.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-21.4%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.37%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.07%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.78%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 86.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.05 | ||
| P/S | 0.84 | ||
| P/FCF | 30.05 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.26 | ||
| P/B | 2.83 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.67 |
EPS(TTM)0.55
EY1.15%
EPS(NY)4.32
Fwd EY9.05%
FCF(TTM)1.59
FCFY3.33%
OCF(TTM)3.35
OCFY7.01%
SpS56.79
BVpS16.9
TBVpS-25.6
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 3.83% | ||
| ROCE | 5.8% | ||
| ROIC | 4.58% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.71% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.21% | ||
| OM | 12.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 23.38% | ||
| FCFM | 2.8% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 50.52 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 58.71% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 33.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 245.61% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.05 |
F-Score6
WACC8.85%
ROIC/WACC0.52
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.54%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%1150%
EPS Next Y470.09%
EPS Next 2Y209.8%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.01%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%2.51%
Revenue Next Year2.58%
Revenue Next 2Y5.56%
Revenue Next 3Y3.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-11.81%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year40.92%
EBIT Next 3Y17.47%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-60%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-32.49%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%