HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HGV - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US43283X1054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, HGV scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HGV was compared to 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. HGV may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. HGV is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HGV had positive earnings in the past year.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
HGV had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HGV has a Return On Assets of 0.29%. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 62.96% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 2.15%, HGV perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.81% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV has a Return On Invested Capital (4.64%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 13.91%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HGV (0.68%) is worse than 62.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HGV has declined.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 12.23%, HGV is doing good in the industry, outperforming 62.96% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HGV has a Gross Margin of 22.72%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: HGV underperforms 84.44% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HGV has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HGV is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HGV has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HGV is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HGV has an Altman-Z score of 1.03. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HGV has a Altman-Z score of 1.03. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
HGV has a debt to FCF ratio of 33.34. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HGV would need 33.34 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 33.34, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.70% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.38 is on the high side and indicates that HGV has dependencies on debt financing.
HGV has a Debt to Equity ratio of 4.38. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 62.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.52
WACC8.97%
2.3 Liquidity
HGV has a Current Ratio of 2.04. This indicates that HGV is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.04, HGV belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.44% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV has a Quick Ratio of 2.04. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HGV has a Quick ratio of 0.44. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 76.30% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HGV shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -84.91%.
The earnings per share for HGV have been decreasing by -28.63% on average. This is quite bad
HGV shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 18.40%.
The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 138.57% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.35% on average per year.
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y202.78%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 151.66, HGV can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HGV is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 62.96% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
HGV is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.41, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HGV is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.76.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HGV is valued cheaper than 84.44% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 35.19. HGV is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 151.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HGV's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HGV indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HGV is cheaper than 73.33% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 21.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.63 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 138.57% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.27
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y202.78%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for HGV!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
48.53
+0.56 (+1.17%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.06%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.3%
Ins Owner Change5.95%
Market Cap4.45B
Analysts72.31
Price Target49.13 (1.24%)
Short Float %12.66%
Short Ratio8.01
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-104.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-75.25%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-93.38%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-67.56%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-43.25%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.08%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.86%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.16%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.41%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.98%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.43%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.52%
PT rev (1m)0.93%
PT rev (3m)-1.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.34%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.97%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 151.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.76 | ||
| P/S | 0.89 | ||
| P/FCF | 21.39 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.82 | ||
| P/B | 2.81 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.63 |
EPS(TTM)0.32
EY0.66%
EPS(NY)4.13
Fwd EY8.5%
FCF(TTM)2.27
FCFY4.68%
OCF(TTM)3.79
OCFY7.8%
SpS54.25
BVpS17.27
TBVpS-24.02
PEG (NY)0.27
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROCE | 5.87% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.65% | ||
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% | ||
| FCFM | 4.18% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 50.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.8% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 39.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 611.77% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.03 |
F-Score5
WACC8.97%
ROIC/WACC0.52
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y202.78%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-14.85%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year46.57%
EBIT Next 3Y16.97%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-49.14%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-31.01%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%