GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:GO • US39874R1014

Current stock price

7.81 USD
-0.03 (-0.38%)
At close:
7.81 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This GO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

3

1. GO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year GO was profitable.
  • GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • GO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years GO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
GO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M -200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -7.28%, GO is doing worse than 78.38% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GO has a worse Return On Equity (-22.86%) than 75.68% of its industry peers.
  • GO's Return On Invested Capital of 2.25% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GO is outperformed by 70.27% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GO is significantly below the industry average of 34.78%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -7.28%
ROE -22.86%
ROIC 2.25%
ROA(3y)-1.12%
ROA(5y)0.26%
ROE(3y)-4.35%
ROE(5y)-0.2%
ROIC(3y)2.54%
ROIC(5y)2.57%
GO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • GO has a Operating Margin of 1.86%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GO outperforms 43.24% of its industry peers.
  • GO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • GO's Gross Margin of 30.27% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 78.38% of its industry peers.
  • GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 1.86%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 30.27%
OM growth 3Y-11.26%
OM growth 5Y-11.54%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.28%
GM growth 5Y-0.51%
GO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30

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2

2. GO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GO is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for GO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for GO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • GO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
GO Yearly Shares OutstandingGO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M
GO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • GO has an Altman-Z score of 1.95. This is not the best score and indicates that GO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 1.95, GO is not doing good in the industry: 72.97% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • GO has a debt to FCF ratio of 20.71. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GO would need 20.71 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 20.71, GO is doing worse than 72.97% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.49 indicates that GO is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of GO (0.49) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.49
Debt/FCF 20.71
Altman-Z 1.95
ROIC/WACC0.31
WACC7.3%
GO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

  • GO has a Current Ratio of 1.37. This is a normal value and indicates that GO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • GO's Current ratio of 1.37 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 70.27% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.32 indicates that GO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • GO has a worse Quick ratio (0.32) than 78.38% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.37
Quick Ratio 0.32
GO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. GO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for GO have decreased by -1.30% in the last year.
  • GO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -12.94% yearly.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.26% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 8.39% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.3%
EPS 3Y-9.64%
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%26.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.26%
Revenue growth 3Y9.43%
Revenue growth 5Y8.39%
Sales Q2Q%10.69%

3.2 Future

  • GO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.31% yearly.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.95% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-32.55%
EPS Next 2Y-7.03%
EPS Next 3Y-4.63%
EPS Next 5Y8.31%
Revenue Next Year-0.68%
Revenue Next 2Y1.59%
Revenue Next 3Y3.15%
Revenue Next 5Y5.95%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
GO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2B 4B 6B
GO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0.5 1 1.5

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5

4. GO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.28, which indicates a very decent valuation of GO.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GO is cheaper than 89.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • GO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.42, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • GO is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.24.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GO is valued a bit cheaper than 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.24. GO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.28
Fwd PE 15.24
GO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GO is cheaper than 86.49% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GO is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 32.21
EV/EBITDA 5.48
GO Per share dataGO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • A cheap valuation may be justified as GO's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.63% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-7.03%
EPS Next 3Y-4.63%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. GO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for GO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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GO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP

NASDAQ:GO (4/24/2026, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 7.81 0 (0%)

7.81

-0.03 (-0.38%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)03-04
Earnings (Next)05-12
Inst Owners129.96%
Inst Owner Change-0.13%
Ins Owners5.72%
Ins Owner Change23.08%
Market Cap766.55M
Revenue(TTM)4.69B
Net Income(TTM)-224.91M
Analysts50.91
Price Target7.77 (-0.51%)
Short Float %28.6%
Short Ratio6.66
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-2.49%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.07%
Max EPS beat(2)8.09%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)25.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.07%
Max EPS beat(4)78.49%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)7.27%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)9.25%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)8.94%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.7%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.86%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.55%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.8%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.59%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.22%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.55%
PT rev (1m)-44.23%
PT rev (3m)-46.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-49.99%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-81.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)-38.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)-39.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-5.52%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.28
Fwd PE 15.24
P/S 0.16
P/FCF 32.21
P/OCF 3.45
P/B 0.78
P/tB 2.82
EV/EBITDA 5.48
EPS(TTM)0.76
EY9.73%
EPS(NY)0.51
Fwd EY6.56%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY3.1%
OCF(TTM)2.26
OCFY28.98%
SpS47.77
BVpS10.02
TBVpS2.77
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.0911 (67.62%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -7.28%
ROE -22.86%
ROCE 3.2%
ROIC 2.25%
ROICexc 2.31%
ROICexgc 3.15%
OM 1.86%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 30.27%
FCFM 0.51%
ROA(3y)-1.12%
ROA(5y)0.26%
ROE(3y)-4.35%
ROE(5y)-0.2%
ROIC(3y)2.54%
ROIC(5y)2.57%
ROICexc(3y)2.62%
ROICexc(5y)2.68%
ROICexgc(3y)3.8%
ROICexgc(5y)3.97%
ROCE(3y)3.61%
ROCE(5y)3.66%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-9.44%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-10.86%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y-8.12%
OM growth 3Y-11.26%
OM growth 5Y-11.54%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.28%
GM growth 5Y-0.51%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.52
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.49
Debt/FCF 20.71
Debt/EBITDA 2.19
Cap/Depr 152.11%
Cap/Sales 4.23%
Interest Coverage 2.67
Cash Conversion 102.02%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.37
Quick Ratio 0.32
Altman-Z 1.95
F-Score4
WACC7.3%
ROIC/WACC0.31
Cap/Depr(3y)172.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)171.37%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.08%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.3%
EPS 3Y-9.64%
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%26.67%
EPS Next Y-32.55%
EPS Next 2Y-7.03%
EPS Next 3Y-4.63%
EPS Next 5Y8.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.26%
Revenue growth 3Y9.43%
Revenue growth 5Y8.39%
Sales Q2Q%10.69%
Revenue Next Year-0.68%
Revenue Next 2Y1.59%
Revenue Next 3Y3.15%
Revenue Next 5Y5.95%
EBIT growth 1Y12.07%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.89%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.12%
EBIT Next Year122.29%
EBIT Next 3Y36.54%
EBIT Next 5Y28.23%
FCF growth 1Y131.88%
FCF growth 3Y-24.36%
FCF growth 5Y-15.82%
OCF growth 1Y98.4%
OCF growth 3Y6.19%
OCF growth 5Y4.16%

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP / GO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GO.


Can you provide the valuation status for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) stock?

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.


What is the valuation of GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) is 10.28 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.78.


What is the earnings growth outlook for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) is expected to decline by -32.55% in the next year.