GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:GO - US39874R1014 - Common Stock
17.77 USD
-0.04 (-0.22%)
17.75 USD
-0.02 (-0.11%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to GO. GO was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. While GO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GO is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GO was profitable.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 0.24%, GO is not doing good in the industry: 67.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
With a Return On Equity value of 0.67%, GO is not doing good in the industry: 67.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GO has a worse Return On Invested Capital (2.19%) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GO is significantly below the industry average of 8.47%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.24% | ||
| ROE | 0.67% | ||
| ROIC | 2.19% |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 0.18%, GO is not doing good in the industry: 67.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GO has grown nicely.
GO has a Operating Margin (1.93%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.
GO has a Gross Margin of 30.41%. This is in the better half of the industry: GO outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.18% | ||
| GM | 30.41% |
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GO has an Altman-Z score of 2.12. This is not the best score and indicates that GO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of GO (2.12) is worse than 67.50% of its industry peers.
GO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
GO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.38) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.12 |
ROIC/WACC0.27
WACC8.01%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.21, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GO has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that GO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.25, GO is not doing good in the industry: 82.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GO have decreased by -4.82% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 15.83% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 8.47%.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.82%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.47%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%4.54%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.69% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.07% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y10.49%
EPS Next 3Y11.39%
EPS Next 5Y13.69%
Revenue Next Year8.33%
Revenue Next 2Y7.09%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5Y9.07%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.49.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as GO.
GO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.30.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.90, GO is valued on the expensive side.
67.50% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.73), we can say GO is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.9 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)4.32
PEG (5Y)1.42
EPS Next 2Y10.49%
EPS Next 3Y11.39%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
17.77
-0.04 (-0.22%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners115.46%
Inst Owner Change5.31%
Ins Owners4.66%
Ins Owner Change0.43%
Market Cap1.74B
Analysts72.38
Price Target16.83 (-5.29%)
Short Float %19.13%
Short Ratio4.99
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)53.19%
Min EPS beat(2)27.88%
Max EPS beat(2)78.49%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)23.55%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(4)78.49%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)10.44%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)10.24%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)9.38%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.24%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.8%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.78%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.31%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.51%
PT rev (1m)3.66%
PT rev (3m)14.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-22.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-28.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.9 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 8.92 | ||
| P/B | 1.47 | ||
| P/tB | 5.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.81 |
EPS(TTM)0.79
EY4.45%
EPS(NY)0.94
Fwd EY5.29%
FCF(TTM)-0.26
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.99
OCFY11.22%
SpS45.99
BVpS12.1
TBVpS3.3
PEG (NY)4.32
PEG (5Y)1.42
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.24% | ||
| ROE | 0.67% | ||
| ROCE | 2.99% | ||
| ROIC | 2.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.19% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.12% | ||
| OM | 1.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.18% | ||
| GM | 30.41% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
ROICexc(3y)2.91%
ROICexc(5y)3.05%
ROICexgc(3y)4.35%
ROICexgc(5y)4.65%
ROCE(3y)3.82%
ROCE(5y)3.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.14%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.36
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.22 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 186.79% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 95.16% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.12 |
F-Score5
WACC8.01%
ROIC/WACC0.27
Cap/Depr(3y)177.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.06%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.03%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.82%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y10.49%
EPS Next 3Y11.39%
EPS Next 5Y13.69%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.47%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%4.54%
Revenue Next Year8.33%
Revenue Next 2Y7.09%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5Y9.07%
EBIT growth 1Y4.72%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.2%
EBIT growth 5Y2.78%
EBIT Next Year112.09%
EBIT Next 3Y36.37%
EBIT Next 5Y25.47%
FCF growth 1Y-121.51%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.19%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-3.36%