GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:GO • US39874R1014

Current stock price

6.315 USD
-0.21 (-3.29%)
Last:

This GO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

3

1. GO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year GO was profitable.
  • GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Of the past 5 years GO 4 years were profitable.
  • GO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
GO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M -200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

  • GO has a worse Return On Assets (-7.28%) than 78.95% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of GO (-22.86%) is worse than 76.32% of its industry peers.
  • GO has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.25%. This is in the lower half of the industry: GO underperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
  • GO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.54%. This is significantly below the industry average of 29.50%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -7.28%
ROE -22.86%
ROIC 2.25%
ROA(3y)-1.12%
ROA(5y)0.26%
ROE(3y)-4.35%
ROE(5y)-0.2%
ROIC(3y)2.54%
ROIC(5y)2.57%
GO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • GO's Operating Margin of 1.86% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 47.37% of its industry peers.
  • GO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • GO's Gross Margin of 30.27% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
  • GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 1.86%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 30.27%
OM growth 3Y-11.26%
OM growth 5Y-11.54%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.28%
GM growth 5Y-0.51%
GO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

2

2. GO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GO is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, GO has more shares outstanding
  • GO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for GO is higher compared to a year ago.
GO Yearly Shares OutstandingGO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M
GO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 1.92 indicates that GO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • GO has a worse Altman-Z score (1.92) than 73.68% of its industry peers.
  • GO has a debt to FCF ratio of 20.71. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GO would need 20.71 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 20.71, GO is doing worse than 71.05% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.49. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • GO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.49. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GO outperforms 55.26% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.49
Debt/FCF 20.71
Altman-Z 1.92
ROIC/WACC0.32
WACC7.13%
GO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.37 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a decent Current ratio value of 1.37, GO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.05% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GO has a Quick Ratio of 1.37. This is a bad value and indicates that GO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • GO has a worse Quick ratio (0.32) than 78.95% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.37
Quick Ratio 0.32
GO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. GO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • GO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -1.30%.
  • The earnings per share for GO have been decreasing by -12.94% on average. This is quite bad
  • GO shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.26%.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 8.39% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.3%
EPS 3Y-9.64%
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%26.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.26%
Revenue growth 3Y9.43%
Revenue growth 5Y8.39%
Sales Q2Q%10.69%

3.2 Future

  • GO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.31% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.95% on average per year.
EPS Next Y10.36%
EPS Next 2Y7.6%
EPS Next 3Y8.21%
EPS Next 5Y8.31%
Revenue Next Year-0.66%
Revenue Next 2Y1.6%
Revenue Next 3Y3.16%
Revenue Next 5Y5.95%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
GO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2B 4B 6B
GO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0.5 1 1.5

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Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

7

4. GO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • GO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 8.31.
  • 89.47% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • GO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.53, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GO.
  • 86.84% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.67. GO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.31
Fwd PE 7.53
GO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GO is valued cheaper than 86.84% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 26.04
EV/EBITDA 4.89
GO Per share dataGO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • GO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.8
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y7.6%
EPS Next 3Y8.21%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. GO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for GO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

GO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP

NASDAQ:GO (3/25/2026, 11:01:08 AM)

6.315

-0.21 (-3.29%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)03-04
Earnings (Next)05-04
Inst Owners130%
Inst Owner Change-6.66%
Ins Owners4.59%
Ins Owner Change21.22%
Market Cap619.82M
Revenue(TTM)4.69B
Net Income(TTM)-224.91M
Analysts71.82
Price Target13.93 (120.59%)
Short Float %27.03%
Short Ratio7.78
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-2.49%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.07%
Max EPS beat(2)8.09%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)25.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.07%
Max EPS beat(4)78.49%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)7.27%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)9.25%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)8.94%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.7%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.86%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.55%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.8%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.59%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.22%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.55%
PT rev (1m)-3.27%
PT rev (3m)-9.23%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-63.66%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-63.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.64%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.2%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-5.51%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-5.51%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.31
Fwd PE 7.53
P/S 0.13
P/FCF 26.04
P/OCF 2.79
P/B 0.63
P/tB 2.28
EV/EBITDA 4.89
EPS(TTM)0.76
EY12.03%
EPS(NY)0.84
Fwd EY13.28%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY3.84%
OCF(TTM)2.26
OCFY35.84%
SpS47.77
BVpS10.02
TBVpS2.77
PEG (NY)0.8
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.09
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -7.28%
ROE -22.86%
ROCE 3.2%
ROIC 2.25%
ROICexc 2.31%
ROICexgc 3.15%
OM 1.86%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 30.27%
FCFM 0.51%
ROA(3y)-1.12%
ROA(5y)0.26%
ROE(3y)-4.35%
ROE(5y)-0.2%
ROIC(3y)2.54%
ROIC(5y)2.57%
ROICexc(3y)2.62%
ROICexc(5y)2.68%
ROICexgc(3y)3.8%
ROICexgc(5y)3.97%
ROCE(3y)3.61%
ROCE(5y)3.66%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-9.44%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-10.86%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y-8.12%
OM growth 3Y-11.26%
OM growth 5Y-11.54%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.28%
GM growth 5Y-0.51%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.52
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.49
Debt/FCF 20.71
Debt/EBITDA 2.19
Cap/Depr 152.11%
Cap/Sales 4.23%
Interest Coverage 2.67
Cash Conversion 102.02%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.37
Quick Ratio 0.32
Altman-Z 1.92
F-Score4
WACC7.13%
ROIC/WACC0.32
Cap/Depr(3y)172.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)171.37%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.08%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.3%
EPS 3Y-9.64%
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%26.67%
EPS Next Y10.36%
EPS Next 2Y7.6%
EPS Next 3Y8.21%
EPS Next 5Y8.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.26%
Revenue growth 3Y9.43%
Revenue growth 5Y8.39%
Sales Q2Q%10.69%
Revenue Next Year-0.66%
Revenue Next 2Y1.6%
Revenue Next 3Y3.16%
Revenue Next 5Y5.95%
EBIT growth 1Y12.07%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.89%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.12%
EBIT Next Year167.32%
EBIT Next 3Y45.61%
EBIT Next 5Y28.23%
FCF growth 1Y131.88%
FCF growth 3Y-24.36%
FCF growth 5Y-15.82%
OCF growth 1Y98.4%
OCF growth 3Y6.19%
OCF growth 5Y4.16%

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP / GO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GO.


Can you provide the valuation status for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO). This can be considered as Undervalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP?

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.


What is the financial health of GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) stock?

The financial health rating of GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) is 2 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for GO stock?

The dividend rating of GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.