GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:GO - US39874R1014 - Common Stock
16.47 USD
+0.29 (+1.79%)
16.15 USD
-0.32 (-1.94%)
Overall GO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GO against 39 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. While GO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, GO is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GO had positive earnings in the past year.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years GO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GO (0.24%) is worse than 69.23% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 0.67%, GO is not doing good in the industry: 69.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Return On Invested Capital of GO (2.19%) is worse than 64.10% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GO is significantly below the industry average of 8.60%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.24% | ||
| ROE | 0.67% | ||
| ROIC | 2.19% |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 0.18%, GO is not doing good in the industry: 69.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GO has a Operating Margin (1.93%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 30.41%, GO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 74.36% of the companies in the same industry.
GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.18% | ||
| GM | 30.41% |
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
GO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
GO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GO has an Altman-Z score of 2.07. This is not the best score and indicates that GO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.07, GO is not doing good in the industry: 69.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
GO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.38 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 53.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.07 |
ROIC/WACC0.27
WACC8.02%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GO's Current ratio of 1.21 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 61.54% of its industry peers.
GO has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that GO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GO's Quick ratio of 0.25 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GO is outperformed by 82.05% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -4.82%.
Measured over the past years, GO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 15.83% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 8.47% in the past year. This is quite good.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.82%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.47%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%4.54%
3.2 Future
GO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 13.69% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.07% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y5.62%
EPS Next 2Y10.84%
EPS Next 3Y11.39%
EPS Next 5Y13.69%
Revenue Next Year8.35%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y7.33%
Revenue Next 5Y9.07%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 20.85, the valuation of GO can be described as rather expensive.
GO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
GO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.86, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.41, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of GO.
GO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GO is cheaper than 71.79% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.32, GO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.41 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GO is valued a bit cheaper than 61.54% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)3.71
PEG (5Y)1.32
EPS Next 2Y10.84%
EPS Next 3Y11.39%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
16.47
+0.29 (+1.79%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners120.88%
Inst Owner Change5.51%
Ins Owners4.65%
Ins Owner Change2.41%
Market Cap1.62B
Analysts72.38
Price Target16.83 (2.19%)
Short Float %23.9%
Short Ratio6.88
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)53.19%
Min EPS beat(2)27.88%
Max EPS beat(2)78.49%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)23.55%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(4)78.49%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)10.44%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)10.24%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)9.38%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.24%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.8%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.78%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.31%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.53%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.51%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)5.66%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-24.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.39%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.71%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.41 | ||
| P/S | 0.36 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 8.26 | ||
| P/B | 1.36 | ||
| P/tB | 5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 |
EPS(TTM)0.79
EY4.8%
EPS(NY)0.95
Fwd EY5.74%
FCF(TTM)-0.26
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.99
OCFY12.1%
SpS45.99
BVpS12.1
TBVpS3.3
PEG (NY)3.71
PEG (5Y)1.32
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.24% | ||
| ROE | 0.67% | ||
| ROCE | 2.99% | ||
| ROIC | 2.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.19% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.12% | ||
| OM | 1.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.18% | ||
| GM | 30.41% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
ROICexc(3y)2.91%
ROICexc(5y)3.05%
ROICexgc(3y)4.35%
ROICexgc(5y)4.65%
ROCE(3y)3.82%
ROCE(5y)3.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.14%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.36
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.22 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 186.79% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 95.16% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.07 |
F-Score5
WACC8.02%
ROIC/WACC0.27
Cap/Depr(3y)177.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.06%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.03%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.82%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y5.62%
EPS Next 2Y10.84%
EPS Next 3Y11.39%
EPS Next 5Y13.69%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.47%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%4.54%
Revenue Next Year8.35%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y7.33%
Revenue Next 5Y9.07%
EBIT growth 1Y4.72%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.2%
EBIT growth 5Y2.78%
EBIT Next Year113.31%
EBIT Next 3Y37.38%
EBIT Next 5Y25.47%
FCF growth 1Y-121.51%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.19%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-3.36%