GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO)
US39874R1014 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GO. GO was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of GO get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. While showing a medium growth rate, GO is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GO was profitable.
In the past year GO had a positive cash flow from operations.
GO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GO has a Return On Assets (2.67%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 6.51%, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.34% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GO (3.95%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GO is significantly below the industry average of 10.23%.
The 3 year average ROIC (3.34%) for GO is below the current ROIC(3.95%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.67% | ||
| ROE | 6.51% | ||
| ROIC | 3.95% |
ROA(3y)2.45%
ROA(5y)2.47%
ROE(3y)6.18%
ROE(5y)6.44%
ROIC(3y)3.34%
ROIC(5y)3.34%
1.3 Margins
GO has a Profit Margin of 2.00%. This is in the better half of the industry: GO outperforms 63.41% of its industry peers.
GO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GO has a Operating Margin of 3.17%. This is in the better half of the industry: GO outperforms 63.41% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.
The Gross Margin of GO (31.28%) is better than 85.37% of its industry peers.
GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.17% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2% | ||
| GM | 31.28% |
OM growth 3Y-2.57%
OM growth 5Y-2.55%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y23.55%
GM growth 3Y0.25%
GM growth 5Y0.57%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GO has an Altman-Z score of 2.62. This is not the best score and indicates that GO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GO has a Altman-Z score of 2.62. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GO outperforms 43.90% of its industry peers.
GO has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.18. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as GO would need 2.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 2.18, GO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 80.49% of the companies in the same industry.
GO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.24. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.24, GO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.62 |
ROIC/WACC0.45
WACC8.85%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.35 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GO's Current ratio of 1.35 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 65.85% of its industry peers.
GO has a Quick Ratio of 1.35. This is a bad value and indicates that GO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of GO (0.43) is worse than 68.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.85% over the past year.
GO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 32.90% yearly.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 10.94%.
The Revenue has been growing by 11.65% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.85%
EPS 3Y-10.77%
EPS 5Y32.9%
EPS growth Q2Q-28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.94%
Revenue growth 3Y8.19%
Revenue growth 5Y11.65%
Revenue growth Q2Q6.34%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.29% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.46% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y11.79%
EPS Next 2Y10.45%
EPS Next 3Y9.59%
EPS Next 5Y11.29%
Revenue Next Year9.54%
Revenue Next 2Y9.36%
Revenue Next 3Y9.47%
Revenue Next 5Y9.46%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 24.23.
GO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 24.84, GO is valued at the same level.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 21.68, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of GO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GO is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.35. GO is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.68 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GO indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: GO is more expensive than 65.85% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GO is valued a bit cheaper than 70.73% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.45 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates GO does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
GO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.06
PEG (5Y)0.74
EPS Next 2Y10.45%
EPS Next 3Y9.59%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP
NASDAQ:GO (4/26/2024, 7:00:02 PM)
After market: 26.17 0 (0%)26.17
-1.02 (-3.75%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap2.60B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
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EPS beat(8)
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EPS beat(12)
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EPS beat(16)
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Revenue beat(2)
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Revenue beat(4)
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Revenue beat(8)
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Revenue beat(12)
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Revenue beat(16)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.68 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)2.06
PEG (5Y)0.74
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.67% | ||
| ROE | 6.51% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 3.17% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2% | ||
| GM | 31.28% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover1.34
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.85%
EPS 3Y-10.77%
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y11.79%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.94%
Revenue growth 3Y8.19%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y