GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:GO - Nasdaq - US39874R1014 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GO. GO was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. GO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GO has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GO was profitable.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GO has a Return On Assets of 0.52%. This is in the lower half of the industry: GO underperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GO (1.46%) is worse than 62.50% of its industry peers.
GO has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.27%. This is in the lower half of the industry: GO underperforms 67.50% of its industry peers.
GO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.80%. This is significantly below the industry average of 8.23%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.52% | ||
| ROE | 1.46% | ||
| ROIC | 2.27% |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 0.39%, GO is not doing good in the industry: 62.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Operating Margin value of 2.01%, GO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 30.50%, GO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.01% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.39% | ||
| GM | 30.5% |
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
GO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GO has an Altman-Z score of 1.99. This is not the best score and indicates that GO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.99, GO is not doing good in the industry: 75.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
GO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.39) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.99 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC7.97%
2.3 Liquidity
GO has a Current Ratio of 1.25. This is a normal value and indicates that GO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GO has a better Current ratio (1.25) than 67.50% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.25 indicates that GO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GO's Quick ratio of 0.25 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GO is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.25 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GO have decreased strongly by -10.00% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 15.83% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, GO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 10.37% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 11.30% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.37%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%8.55%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 12.55% on average per year.
GO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 9.17% yearly.
EPS Next Y-1.01%
EPS Next 2Y7.78%
EPS Next 3Y7.82%
EPS Next 5Y12.55%
Revenue Next Year8.33%
Revenue Next 2Y7.18%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y9.17%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.96 indicates a correct valuation of GO.
GO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GO is cheaper than 72.50% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GO to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.21), we can say GO is valued slightly cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.45, GO is valued correctly.
85.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.70, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.96 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.45 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GO is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.01
EPS Next 2Y7.78%
EPS Next 3Y7.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
12.93
+0.51 (+4.11%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners113.36%
Inst Owner Change11.64%
Ins Owners4.64%
Ins Owner Change10.61%
Market Cap1.27B
Analysts52.73
Price Target15.93 (23.2%)
Short Float %14.63%
Short Ratio3.41
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)32.94%
Min EPS beat(2)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(2)78.49%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)21.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(4)78.49%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)9.4%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)9.35%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)7.23%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.35%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.8%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.89%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.88%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.8%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.66%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.72%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.07%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.43%
PT rev (1m)8.56%
PT rev (3m)12.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-21%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.23%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.96 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.45 | ||
| P/S | 0.28 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 7.77 | ||
| P/B | 1.07 | ||
| P/tB | 4 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
EPS(TTM)0.81
EY6.26%
EPS(NY)0.89
Fwd EY6.92%
FCF(TTM)-0.38
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.66
OCFY12.86%
SpS45.5
BVpS12.03
TBVpS3.23
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.01
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.52% | ||
| ROE | 1.46% | ||
| ROCE | 3.1% | ||
| ROIC | 2.27% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.32% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.33% | ||
| OM | 2.01% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.39% | ||
| GM | 30.5% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
ROICexc(3y)2.91%
ROICexc(5y)3.05%
ROICexgc(3y)4.35%
ROICexgc(5y)4.65%
ROCE(3y)3.82%
ROCE(5y)3.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.14%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.36
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.36% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.5% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 80.45% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.25 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.25 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.99 |
F-Score5
WACC7.97%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)177.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.06%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.03%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
EPS Next Y-1.01%
EPS Next 2Y7.78%
EPS Next 3Y7.82%
EPS Next 5Y12.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.37%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%8.55%
Revenue Next Year8.33%
Revenue Next 2Y7.18%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y9.17%
EBIT growth 1Y-4.4%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.2%
EBIT growth 5Y2.78%
EBIT Next Year111.85%
EBIT Next 3Y36.02%
EBIT Next 5Y25.5%
FCF growth 1Y-135.77%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-31.14%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-3.36%