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GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:GO - Nasdaq - US39874R1014 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

14.4  -0.58 (-3.87%)

After market: 14.4 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

3

We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to GO. GO was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. GO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GO is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

GO had positive earnings in the past year.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GO has been profitable.
In the past 5 years GO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
GO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100M 200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

GO has a Return On Assets of 1.24%. This is in the lower half of the industry: GO underperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 3.30%, GO is doing worse than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GO (2.03%) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GO is significantly below the industry average of 7.99%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.24%
ROE 3.3%
ROIC 2.03%
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
GO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2 4 6 8 10

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 0.90%, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 42.50% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GO has grown nicely.
GO has a Operating Margin (1.79%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 30.24%, GO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 1.79%
PM (TTM) 0.9%
GM 30.24%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
GO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GO is higher compared to a year ago.
GO Yearly Shares OutstandingGO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M
GO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.13 indicates that GO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.13, GO is doing worse than 72.50% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39 indicates that GO is not too dependend on debt financing.
GO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.39) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.39
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 2.13
ROIC/WACC0.25
WACC8.06%
GO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GO has a better Current ratio (1.44) than 72.50% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.31 indicates that GO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.31, GO is not doing good in the industry: 72.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.31
GO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for GO have decreased strongly by -10.00% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 15.83% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has grown by 10.13% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing by 11.30% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%8.55%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.36% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.92% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-2.83%
EPS Next 2Y7.4%
EPS Next 3Y7.03%
EPS Next 5Y11.36%
Revenue Next Year8.73%
Revenue Next 2Y7.46%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y7.92%

3.3 Evolution

The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
GO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2B 4B 6B
GO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0.5 1 1.5

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.78 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GO.
GO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GO to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.12), we can say GO is valued slightly cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.21, GO is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 67.50% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 20.42.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.78
Fwd PE 16.21
GO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GO is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.09
GO Per share dataGO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.12
EPS Next 2Y7.4%
EPS Next 3Y7.03%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for GO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP

NASDAQ:GO (5/9/2025, 4:05:06 PM)

After market: 14.4 0 (0%)

14.4

-0.58 (-3.87%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)05-06 2025-05-06/amc
Earnings (Next)08-04 2025-08-04/amc
Inst Owners108.52%
Inst Owner Change-2.84%
Ins Owners4.01%
Ins Owner Change7.52%
Market Cap1.41B
Analysts53.04
Price Target14.67 (1.87%)
Short Float %14.81%
Short Ratio4.27
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.09%
Min EPS beat(2)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(2)0.43%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-10.81%
Min EPS beat(4)-52.56%
Max EPS beat(4)21.5%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)1.21%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)3.47%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)2.31%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.89%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.57%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.66%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.87%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.48%
PT rev (1m)2.78%
PT rev (3m)-18.14%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.09%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-56.25%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)-22.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.09%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.18%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.78
Fwd PE 16.21
P/S 0.32
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 12.61
P/B 1.18
P/tB 4.2
EV/EBITDA 10.09
EPS(TTM)0.81
EY5.63%
EPS(NY)0.89
Fwd EY6.17%
FCF(TTM)-0.76
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.14
OCFY7.93%
SpS44.6
BVpS12.22
TBVpS3.43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.12
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.24%
ROE 3.3%
ROCE 2.77%
ROIC 2.03%
ROICexc 2.08%
ROICexgc 3.02%
OM 1.79%
PM (TTM) 0.9%
GM 30.24%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
ROICexc(3y)2.91%
ROICexc(5y)3.05%
ROICexgc(3y)4.35%
ROICexgc(5y)4.65%
ROCE(3y)3.82%
ROCE(5y)3.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.14%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.38
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.39
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 2.48
Cap/Depr 172.46%
Cap/Sales 4.27%
Interest Coverage 2.99
Cash Conversion 60.02%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.31
Altman-Z 2.13
F-Score6
WACC8.06%
ROIC/WACC0.25
Cap/Depr(3y)177.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.06%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.03%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
EPS Next Y-2.83%
EPS Next 2Y7.4%
EPS Next 3Y7.03%
EPS Next 5Y11.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%8.55%
Revenue Next Year8.73%
Revenue Next 2Y7.46%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y7.92%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.75%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.2%
EBIT growth 5Y2.78%
EBIT Next Year115.72%
EBIT Next 3Y35.09%
EBIT Next 5Y24.72%
FCF growth 1Y-155.52%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-63.1%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-3.36%