GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
20.74 USD
+0.14 (+0.68%)
20.57 USD
-0.17 (-0.82%)
GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 84 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GEO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.45%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.71% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a better Return On Equity (6.49%) than 60.71% of its industry peers.
GEO has a better Return On Invested Capital (6.85%) than 60.71% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.78%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 3.66%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.71% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
GEO has a Operating Margin of 11.55%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GEO (25.84%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
GEO has a worse Altman-Z score (1.71) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 12.95, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 12.95 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (12.95) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GEO (1.07) is worse than 70.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
ROIC/WACC0.72
WACC9.48%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.90 indicates that GEO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO has a worse Current ratio (0.90) than 78.57% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.90 indicates that GEO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.90, GEO is doing worse than 72.62% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -21.35% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -19.08% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.35%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%-4.35%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-19.08%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%4.77%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 58.01% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 12.57% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.82%
EPS Next 2Y58.01%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.62%
Revenue Next 2Y12.57%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 29.63, which means the current valuation is very expensive for GEO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO is on the same level as its industry peers.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.08.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.08 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
88.10% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.72.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.08 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 64.29% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 67.86% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.04 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 58.01% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y58.01%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
20.74
+0.14 (+0.68%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.03%
Inst Owner Change0.68%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change6.59%
Market Cap2.94B
Analysts82.22
Price Target38.25 (84.43%)
Short Float %7.86%
Short Ratio3.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)5.28%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)0.77%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.63%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.27%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)-5.86%
PT rev (3m)-16.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.93%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-45.73%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.87%
EPS NY rev (3m)-8.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.4%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-8.36%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.72%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.29%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.08 | ||
| P/S | 1.2 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.41 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.33 | ||
| P/B | 2.12 | ||
| P/tB | 5.81 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.04 |
EPS(TTM)0.7
EY3.38%
EPS(NY)1.87
Fwd EY9.03%
FCF(TTM)0.93
FCFY4.46%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY8.11%
SpS17.32
BVpS9.77
TBVpS3.57
PEG (NY)1.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROCE | 9.14% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% | ||
| ROICexc | 7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.86% | ||
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% | ||
| FCFM | 5.34% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8%
ROICexcg growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 83.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
F-Score5
WACC9.48%
ROIC/WACC0.72
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.35%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%-4.35%
EPS Next Y22.82%
EPS Next 2Y58.01%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-19.08%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%4.77%
Revenue Next Year6.62%
Revenue Next 2Y12.57%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.35%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year49.51%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-13.75%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.3%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%