GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060

Current stock price

18.95 USD
+0.16 (+0.85%)
Last:

This GEO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. GEO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year GEO was profitable.
  • GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
  • GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
GEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M 300M 400M

1.2 Ratios

  • GEO has a better Return On Assets (6.62%) than 79.75% of its industry peers.
  • GEO has a better Return On Equity (16.89%) than 82.28% of its industry peers.
  • GEO has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.35%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 67.09% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 9.77%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.62%
ROE 16.89%
ROIC 6.35%
ROA(3y)3.28%
ROA(5y)3.04%
ROE(3y)8.68%
ROE(5y)9.09%
ROIC(3y)7.18%
ROIC(5y)7.08%
GEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.67%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.81% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.22%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.95% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GEO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • GEO has a Gross Margin of 25.20%. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 63.29% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.22%
PM (TTM) 9.67%
GM 25.2%
OM growth 3Y-11.39%
OM growth 5Y1.58%
PM growth 3Y17.26%
PM growth 5Y14.99%
GM growth 3Y-5.65%
GM growth 5Y0.7%
GEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20 25

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4

2. GEO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has less shares outstanding
  • The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
GEO Yearly Shares OutstandingGEO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M
GEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.80, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 1.80, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.10% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.10. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • GEO has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.10) than 70.89% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.1
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.8
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.56%
GEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 2.01 indicates that GEO has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • With a decent Current ratio value of 2.01, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.09% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 2.01 indicates that GEO has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • With a decent Quick ratio value of 2.01, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.01
Quick Ratio 2.01
GEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M

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6

3. GEO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 14.67% over the past year.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.13% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
  • GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -13.16%.
  • Measured over the past years, GEO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.29% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5Y14.13%
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.45%
Revenue growth 5Y2.29%
Sales Q2Q%16.45%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 44.58% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 12.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y38.97%
EPS Next 2Y44.58%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year14.41%
Revenue Next 2Y12.18%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
GEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B
GEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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6

4. GEO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 22.03 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 73.42% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.95.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.86 indicates a correct valuation of GEO.
  • GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 79.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 38.68. GEO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.03
Fwd PE 15.86
GEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 70.89% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 9.54
GEO Per share dataGEO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 44.58% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.57
PEG (5Y)1.56
EPS Next 2Y44.58%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. GEO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for GEO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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GEO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

GEO GROUP INC/THE

NYSE:GEO (4/21/2026, 11:11:01 AM)

18.95

+0.16 (+0.85%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)02-12
Earnings (Next)05-12
Inst Owners94.27%
Inst Owner Change-0.41%
Ins Owners1.65%
Ins Owner Change7.55%
Market Cap2.51B
Revenue(TTM)2.63B
Net Income(TTM)254.37M
Analysts80
Price Target27.74 (46.39%)
Short Float %7.93%
Short Ratio3.79
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.31%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.99%
Max EPS beat(2)7.62%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)4.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.53%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)2.79%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.23%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.35%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.01%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.48%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.01%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.08%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.08%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.38%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-9.93%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.05%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.2%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.53%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.03
Fwd PE 15.86
P/S 0.96
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 34.63
P/B 1.67
P/tB 3.98
EV/EBITDA 9.54
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY4.54%
EPS(NY)1.2
Fwd EY6.31%
FCF(TTM)-0.94
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)0.55
OCFY2.89%
SpS19.82
BVpS11.35
TBVpS4.77
PEG (NY)0.57
PEG (5Y)1.56
Graham Number14.8174 (-21.81%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.62%
ROE 16.89%
ROCE 8.46%
ROIC 6.35%
ROICexc 6.48%
ROICexgc 8.7%
OM 11.22%
PM (TTM) 9.67%
GM 25.2%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)3.28%
ROA(5y)3.04%
ROE(3y)8.68%
ROE(5y)9.09%
ROIC(3y)7.18%
ROIC(5y)7.08%
ROICexc(3y)7.36%
ROICexc(5y)7.38%
ROICexgc(3y)10.1%
ROICexgc(5y)10.12%
ROCE(3y)9.56%
ROCE(5y)9.43%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.04%
ROICexgc growth 5Y6.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-10.06%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.93%
OM growth 3Y-11.39%
OM growth 5Y1.58%
PM growth 3Y17.26%
PM growth 5Y14.99%
GM growth 3Y-5.65%
GM growth 5Y0.7%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.1
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.86
Cap/Depr 149.59%
Cap/Sales 7.51%
Interest Coverage 1.92
Cash Conversion 17%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 2.01
Quick Ratio 2.01
Altman-Z 1.8
F-Score6
WACC9.56%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)89.99%
Cap/Depr(5y)77.8%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.13%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5Y14.13%
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
EPS Next Y38.97%
EPS Next 2Y44.58%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.45%
Revenue growth 5Y2.29%
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue Next Year14.41%
Revenue Next 2Y12.18%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-24.25%
EBIT growth 3Y-8.33%
EBIT growth 5Y3.9%
EBIT Next Year114.3%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-176.37%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-70.02%
OCF growth 3Y-37.43%
OCF growth 5Y-30.31%

GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GEO.


What is the valuation status for GEO stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of GEO stock?

GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


What is the financial health of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?

The financial health rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 4 / 10.


What is the earnings growth outlook for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 38.97% in the next year.