GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
14.885 USD
+0.04 (+0.3%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 2.45%, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.32% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Return On Equity (6.49%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO's Return On Invested Capital of 6.85% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 60.98% of its industry peers.
GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is below the industry average of 10.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a Profit Margin of 3.66%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 59.76% of its industry peers.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO has a better Operating Margin (11.55%) than 78.05% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 25.84%, GEO is doing worse than 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.49. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.49, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 62.20% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.95. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 12.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 12.95. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 51.22% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
GEO's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 71.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.49 |
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.36%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.90, GEO is doing worse than 78.05% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.90 indicates that GEO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.90, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 69.51% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.44% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 59.75% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 13.33% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GEO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.11.
65.85% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.35), we can say GEO is valued slightly cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.78, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.02% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.72, GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.11 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.78 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 68.29% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.08 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
NYSE:GEO (11/12/2025, 11:50:06 AM)
14.885
+0.04 (+0.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change0.42%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.11B
Revenue(TTM)2.42B
Net Income(TTM)89.71M
Analysts80
Price Target38.56 (159.05%)
Short Float %6.99%
Short Ratio4.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)5.28%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)0.77%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.63%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.27%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-11.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.11 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.78 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.08 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.85 | ||
| P/B | 1.52 | ||
| P/tB | 4.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.97%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.86%
FCF(TTM)0.93
FCFY6.22%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY11.3%
SpS17.32
BVpS9.77
TBVpS3.57
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number12.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROCE | 9.14% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% | ||
| ROICexc | 7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.86% | ||
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% | ||
| FCFM | 5.34% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 83.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.49 |
F-Score5
WACC9.36%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.35%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-13.75%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.3%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.