GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO)
US36162J1060 - Common Stock
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 84 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GEO has a better Return On Assets (2.41%) than 61.45% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 6.90%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.47% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.95%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.08% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.00%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.17%) for GEO is below the current ROIC(7.95%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.41% | ||
| ROE | 6.9% | ||
| ROIC | 7.95% |
ROA(3y)2.58%
ROA(5y)2.83%
ROE(3y)8.78%
ROE(5y)11.08%
ROIC(3y)7.17%
ROIC(5y)6.31%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 3.69%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.67% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
GEO has a Operating Margin of 14.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GEO outperforms 84.34% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GEO has a Gross Margin (27.72%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.69% | ||
| GM | 27.72% |
OM growth 3Y12.09%
OM growth 5Y5.16%
PM growth 3Y-8.43%
PM growth 5Y-9.92%
GM growth 3Y4.44%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.50. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.50, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 62.65% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 8.41, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 8.41 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO (8.41) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.34 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.34, GEO is doing worse than 73.49% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.34 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
ROIC/WACC0.84
WACC9.47%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GEO (1.21) is worse than 65.06% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO's Quick ratio of 1.21 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 48.19% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -25.64% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -6.69% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 1.53% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.69% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-25.64%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y-6.69%
EPS growth Q2Q3.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.53%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y0.69%
Revenue growth Q2Q-2%
3.2 Future
GEO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 21.71% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.10% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.45%
EPS Next 2Y21.71%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.4%
Revenue Next 2Y2.1%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.09 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.11% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 24.92.
GEO is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.62.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 71.08% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.49), we can say GEO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.62 |
4.2 Price Multiples
83.13% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GEO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 85.54% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.45 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 21.71% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.81
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y21.71%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
GEO GROUP INC/THE
NYSE:GEO (4/26/2024, 7:04:00 PM)
After market: 14.87 0 (0%)14.87
+0.08 (+0.54%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap1.89B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
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Min EPS beat(4)
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EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
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Min Revenue beat(4)
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Revenue beat(8)
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Revenue beat(12)
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Revenue beat(16)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.62 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)1.81
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.41% | ||
| ROE | 6.9% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 14.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.69% | ||
| GM | 27.72% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.65
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.34 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-25.64%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y9.45%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.53%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y