GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
17.59 USD
+0.1 (+0.57%)
17.64 USD
+0.05 (+0.28%)
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year GEO was profitable.
- GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
- Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- The Return On Assets of GEO (6.23%) is better than 77.50% of its industry peers.
- GEO has a Return On Equity of 15.60%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 77.50% of its industry peers.
- GEO has a better Return On Invested Capital (6.18%) than 62.50% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.58%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
- GEO has a better Profit Margin (9.38%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
- GEO has a Operating Margin of 11.03%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 72.50% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
- With a Gross Margin value of 25.51%, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.50% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
- The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
- GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.73. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.73, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.75% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 58.99, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 46.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
- GEO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.02. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 67.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.73 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.38%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.50% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- The Quick ratio of GEO (1.62) is better than 65.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
- Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
- The Revenue for GEO has decreased by -16.47% in the past year. This is quite bad
- The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 26.69% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
- Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.34% on average per year.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 23.77 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
- GEO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 68.75% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.38.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.77, the valuation of GEO can be described as correct.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.25% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.29, GEO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.77 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 73.75% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 92.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.34 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
- The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
- GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.59
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
17.59
+0.1 (+0.57%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)11-06 2025-11-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-25 2026-02-25/bmo
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change0.45%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.45B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (75.1%)
Short Float %7.01%
Short Ratio4.73
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.77 | ||
| P/S | 0.97 | ||
| P/FCF | 92.94 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.75 | ||
| P/B | 1.61 | ||
| P/tB | 3.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.34 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.21%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY7.83%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.08%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.51%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.59
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.73 |
F-Score6
WACC9.38%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.