GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
14.98 USD
-0.15 (-0.99%)
14.9093 USD
-0.07 (-0.47%)
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GEO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GEO has a Return On Assets of 2.45%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 57.32% of its industry peers.
GEO's Return On Equity of 6.49% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 58.54% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 6.85%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.49%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a Profit Margin of 3.66%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 59.76% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
GEO has a Operating Margin of 11.55%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 78.05% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GEO has a worse Gross Margin (25.84%) than 60.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.50, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.50, GEO is doing worse than 62.20% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.95. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 12.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 12.95. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 51.22% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.07, GEO is doing worse than 71.95% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.34%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO has a Current ratio of 0.90. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 78.05% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO's Quick ratio of 0.90 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 69.51% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
GEO shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.44%.
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 59.75% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 13.33% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.24, GEO is valued on the expensive side.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 64.63% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.28), we can say GEO is valued slightly cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.83, the valuation of GEO can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaper than 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 33.61, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.24 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.83 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 68.29% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 75.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
14.98
-0.15 (-0.99%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change0.42%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.12B
Revenue(TTM)2.42B
Net Income(TTM)89.71M
Analysts80
Price Target38.56 (157.41%)
Short Float %6.99%
Short Ratio4.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)5.28%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)0.77%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.63%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.27%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-11.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.24 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.83 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.9 | ||
| P/B | 1.53 | ||
| P/tB | 4.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.16 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.94%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.78%
FCF(TTM)0.93
FCFY6.18%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY11.23%
SpS17.32
BVpS9.77
TBVpS3.57
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number12.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROCE | 9.14% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% | ||
| ROICexc | 7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.86% | ||
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% | ||
| FCFM | 5.34% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 83.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
F-Score5
WACC9.34%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.35%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-13.75%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.3%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.