GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060
14.595 USD
+0.79 (+5.68%)
Last: Feb 25, 2026, 12:55 PM
GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on GEO.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
- Of the past 5 years GEO 4 years were profitable.
- Of the past 5 years GEO 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- GEO has a better Return On Assets (6.23%) than 77.50% of its industry peers.
- GEO has a better Return On Equity (15.60%) than 76.25% of its industry peers.
- GEO's Return On Invested Capital of 6.18% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 63.75% of its industry peers.
- GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is below the industry average of 10.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
- Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.38%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.75% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- GEO has a Operating Margin of 11.03%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 71.25% of its industry peers.
- GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- GEO has a Gross Margin (25.51%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
- GEO has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.59, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- The Altman-Z score of GEO (1.59) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (58.99) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.02, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 66.25% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACC0.64
WACC9.66%
2.3 Liquidity
- GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- GEO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 14.67%, which is quite good.
- GEO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -9.75% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 33.17% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
- The Revenue is expected to grow by 13.11% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year14.56%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 16.97, the valuation of GEO can be described as correct.
- 81.25% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.98, GEO is valued a bit cheaper.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.60 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
- GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 28.01.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.6 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 77.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 33.17% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
NYSE:GEO (2/25/2026, 12:55:03 PM)
14.595
+0.79 (+5.68%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)02-12 2026-02-12/bmo
Earnings (Next)05-05 2026-05-05
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-3.86%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-3.23%
Market Cap2.03B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (111.03%)
Short Float %6.33%
Short Ratio4.5
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.91%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.6 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 77.12 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.75 | ||
| P/B | 1.34 | ||
| P/tB | 3.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.05 |
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY5.89%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY9.43%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.3%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY10.26%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number14.54
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score6
WACC9.66%
ROIC/WACC0.64
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue Next Year14.56%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 60.11% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.