GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GBX - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3936571013 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall GBX gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GBX against 128 industry peers in the Machinery industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GBX while its profitability can be described as average. GBX is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GBX was profitable.
GBX had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GBX has been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: GBX reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 5.26%, GBX perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.69% of the companies in the same industry.
GBX has a Return On Equity of 15.22%. This is in the better half of the industry: GBX outperforms 71.88% of its industry peers.
GBX has a Return On Invested Capital (7.83%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GBX is significantly below the industry average of 10.71%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.83%) for GBX is above the 3 year average (4.87%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.26% | ||
| ROE | 15.22% | ||
| ROIC | 7.83% |
ROA(3y)2.18%
ROA(5y)1.81%
ROE(3y)6.76%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.87%
ROIC(5y)3.92%
1.3 Margins
GBX has a Profit Margin of 6.48%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GBX outperforms 56.25% of its industry peers.
GBX's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GBX has a Operating Margin (11.16%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GBX's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GBX's Gross Margin of 18.53% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GBX is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
GBX's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.48% | ||
| GM | 18.53% |
OM growth 3Y56.84%
OM growth 5Y11.71%
PM growth 3Y34.43%
PM growth 5Y14.02%
GM growth 3Y5.95%
GM growth 5Y5.45%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GBX has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
GBX has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GBX has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GBX has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GBX has an Altman-Z score of 1.91. This is not the best score and indicates that GBX is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.91, GBX is doing worse than 67.19% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GBX is 23.13, which is on the high side as it means it would take GBX, 23.13 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 23.13, GBX is doing worse than 68.75% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.17 is on the high side and indicates that GBX has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.17, GBX is not doing good in the industry: 81.25% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 23.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
ROIC/WACC0.92
WACC8.51%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that GBX should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GBX has a Current ratio of 1.44. This is in the lower half of the industry: GBX underperforms 79.69% of its industry peers.
GBX has a Quick Ratio of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that GBX is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.78, GBX is not doing good in the industry: 78.13% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 77.83% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.92% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
GBX shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.70%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)77.83%
EPS 3Y65.82%
EPS 5Y10.92%
EPS Q2Q%75.47%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.7%
Revenue growth 3Y26.57%
Revenue growth 5Y3.16%
Sales Q2Q%2.74%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GBX will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 0.55% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -5.01% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y20.31%
EPS Next 2Y0.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.22%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.01%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 6.37 indicates a rather cheap valuation of GBX.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GBX is valued cheaply inside the industry as 96.09% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GBX's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.48.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.95, the valuation of GBX can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GBX is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.97% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GBX is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.04, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.37 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GBX is valued cheaper than 97.66% of the companies in the same industry.
GBX's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GBX is cheaper than 70.31% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.76 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.31
PEG (5Y)0.58
EPS Next 2Y0.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GBX has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.81%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.91, GBX pays a better dividend. On top of this GBX pays more dividend than 89.06% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, GBX has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.81% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GBX has a limited annual growth rate of 3.82%.
GBX has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GBX has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.82%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
5.3 Sustainability
GBX pays out 17.04% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
GBX's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP17.04%
EPS Next 2Y0.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
44.96
+0.4 (+0.9%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners105.24%
Inst Owner Change-0.77%
Ins Owners1.8%
Ins Owner Change-1.1%
Market Cap1.39B
Analysts46.67
Price Target54.57 (21.37%)
Short Float %6.1%
Short Ratio4.15
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.81% |
Yearly Dividend1.24
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.82%
DP17.04%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)36.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.23%
Max EPS beat(2)86.96%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)41.3%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.23%
Max EPS beat(4)86.96%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)24.58%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)23.35%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)23.32%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.92%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.02%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.19%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-16.02%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.19%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.41%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.46%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.04%
PT rev (1m)9.18%
PT rev (3m)9.18%
EPS NQ rev (1m)28.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-8.88%
EPS NY rev (1m)13.96%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.54%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-10.9%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.89%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.89%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.37 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.95 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.22 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.87 | ||
| P/B | 0.92 | ||
| P/tB | 1.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.76 |
EPS(TTM)7.06
EY15.7%
EPS(NY)5.02
Fwd EY11.18%
FCF(TTM)2.47
FCFY5.49%
OCF(TTM)11.62
OCFY25.85%
SpS114.43
BVpS48.7
TBVpS43.59
PEG (NY)0.31
PEG (5Y)0.58
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.26% | ||
| ROE | 15.22% | ||
| ROCE | 12.03% | ||
| ROIC | 7.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.73% | ||
| OM | 11.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.48% | ||
| GM | 18.53% | ||
| FCFM | 2.16% |
ROA(3y)2.18%
ROA(5y)1.81%
ROE(3y)6.76%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.87%
ROIC(5y)3.92%
ROICexc(3y)5.53%
ROICexc(5y)4.74%
ROICexgc(3y)6.3%
ROICexgc(5y)5.45%
ROCE(3y)7.54%
ROCE(5y)6.11%
ROICexcg growth 3Y91.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.27%
ROICexc growth 3Y91.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.88%
OM growth 3Y56.84%
OM growth 5Y11.71%
PM growth 3Y34.43%
PM growth 5Y14.02%
GM growth 3Y5.95%
GM growth 5Y5.45%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 23.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 230.59% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 8% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.7 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 69.41% | ||
| Profit Quality | 33.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
F-Score7
WACC8.51%
ROIC/WACC0.92
Cap/Depr(3y)352.81%
Cap/Depr(5y)251.47%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.07%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.71%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)77.83%
EPS 3Y65.82%
EPS 5Y10.92%
EPS Q2Q%75.47%
EPS Next Y20.31%
EPS Next 2Y0.55%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.7%
Revenue growth 3Y26.57%
Revenue growth 5Y3.16%
Sales Q2Q%2.74%
Revenue Next Year-7.22%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.01%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y54.58%
EBIT growth 3Y98.52%
EBIT growth 5Y15.24%
EBIT Next Year66.17%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y136.88%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y100.28%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A