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FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:FWRG - Nasdaq - US33748L1017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

15.83  +0.51 (+3.33%)

After market: 15.83 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

2

Taking everything into account, FWRG scores 2 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. FWRG was compared to 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and financial health of FWRG have multiple concerns. FWRG is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year FWRG was profitable.
FWRG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: FWRG reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years FWRG 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
FWRG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFFWRG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M

1.2 Ratios

FWRG's Return On Assets of 0.70% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. FWRG is outperformed by 61.65% of its industry peers.
FWRG has a Return On Equity (1.82%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of FWRG (1.70%) is worse than 72.93% of its industry peers.
FWRG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.26%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.04%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.82%
ROIC 1.7%
ROA(3y)1.29%
ROA(5y)-0.25%
ROE(3y)3.01%
ROE(5y)-1.38%
ROIC(3y)2.26%
ROIC(5y)N/A
FWRG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICFWRG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -5 -10 -15

1.3 Margins

With a Profit Margin value of 1.03%, FWRG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 40.60% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRG has a Operating Margin of 3.28%. This is in the lower half of the industry: FWRG underperforms 69.17% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRG has grown nicely.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 62.40%, FWRG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.94% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.28%
PM (TTM) 1.03%
GM 62.4%
OM growth 3Y3.02%
OM growth 5Y16.3%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.64%
GM growth 5Y-0.07%
FWRG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsFWRG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 40 60

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so FWRG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, FWRG has more shares outstanding
FWRG has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
FWRG Yearly Shares OutstandingFWRG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
FWRG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsFWRG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.24, we must say that FWRG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
FWRG has a Altman-Z score (1.24) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.32 indicates that FWRG is not too dependend on debt financing.
FWRG's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.32 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. FWRG outperforms 72.18% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.32
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.24
ROIC/WACC0.2
WACC8.48%
FWRG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFFWRG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.31 indicates that FWRG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.31, FWRG is not doing good in the industry: 86.47% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.27 indicates that FWRG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of FWRG (0.27) is worse than 87.22% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.27
FWRG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesFWRG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for FWRG have decreased strongly by -54.21% in the last year.
FWRG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 14.43%.
The Revenue has been growing by 18.41% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-54.21%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-108.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.43%
Revenue growth 3Y19.11%
Revenue growth 5Y18.41%
Sales Q2Q%16.41%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, FWRG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.29% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 14.34% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-46.05%
EPS Next 2Y7.8%
EPS Next 3Y12.78%
EPS Next 5Y19.29%
Revenue Next Year18.8%
Revenue Next 2Y17.43%
Revenue Next 3Y15.94%
Revenue Next 5Y14.34%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
FWRG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesFWRG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
FWRG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesFWRG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

FWRG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 93.12.
FWRG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.34, FWRG is valued quite expensively.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 44.81 indicates a quite expensive valuation of FWRG.
FWRG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. FWRG is more expensive than 60.90% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.03.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 93.12
Fwd PE 44.81
FWRG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsFWRG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as FWRG.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 11.89
FWRG Per share dataFWRG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

A more expensive valuation may be justified as FWRG's earnings are expected to grow with 12.78% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y7.8%
EPS Next 3Y12.78%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for FWRG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP

NASDAQ:FWRG (6/20/2025, 8:00:00 PM)

After market: 15.83 0 (0%)

15.83

+0.51 (+3.33%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)05-06 2025-05-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)08-04 2025-08-04/bmo
Inst Owners89.23%
Inst Owner Change5.14%
Ins Owners2.37%
Ins Owner Change33.15%
Market Cap965.47M
Analysts87.06
Price Target21.33 (34.74%)
Short Float %13.83%
Short Ratio5.47
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-91.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-130.75%
Max EPS beat(2)-53.09%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-49.55%
Min EPS beat(4)-130.75%
Max EPS beat(4)12.04%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.52%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-9.38%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.45%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.58%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.32%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.75%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.84%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.53%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.89%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)-12.21%
PT rev (3m)-10.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-56.55%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.69%
EPS NY rev (3m)-61.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.58%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 93.12
Fwd PE 44.81
P/S 0.91
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 8.71
P/B 1.62
P/tB 30.4
EV/EBITDA 11.89
EPS(TTM)0.17
EY1.07%
EPS(NY)0.35
Fwd EY2.23%
FCF(TTM)-0.41
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.82
OCFY11.48%
SpS17.31
BVpS9.78
TBVpS0.52
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.82%
ROCE 2.47%
ROIC 1.7%
ROICexc 1.73%
ROICexgc 2.92%
OM 3.28%
PM (TTM) 1.03%
GM 62.4%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.29%
ROA(5y)-0.25%
ROE(3y)3.01%
ROE(5y)-1.38%
ROIC(3y)2.26%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)2.35%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.37%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)3.27%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-0.6%
ROICexcg growth 5Y21.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y7.43%
ROICexc growth 5Y27.07%
OM growth 3Y3.02%
OM growth 5Y16.3%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.64%
GM growth 5Y-0.07%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.32
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 1.98
Cap/Depr 219.47%
Cap/Sales 12.89%
Interest Coverage 2.74
Cash Conversion 114.69%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.27
Altman-Z 1.24
F-Score3
WACC8.48%
ROIC/WACC0.2
Cap/Depr(3y)204.11%
Cap/Depr(5y)162.05%
Cap/Sales(3y)10.26%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.92%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-54.21%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-108.33%
EPS Next Y-46.05%
EPS Next 2Y7.8%
EPS Next 3Y12.78%
EPS Next 5Y19.29%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.43%
Revenue growth 3Y19.11%
Revenue growth 5Y18.41%
Sales Q2Q%16.41%
Revenue Next Year18.8%
Revenue Next 2Y17.43%
Revenue Next 3Y15.94%
Revenue Next 5Y14.34%
EBIT growth 1Y-24.14%
EBIT growth 3Y22.71%
EBIT growth 5Y37.72%
EBIT Next Year185.51%
EBIT Next 3Y59.65%
EBIT Next 5Y39.78%
FCF growth 1Y-362.42%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y45.66%
OCF growth 3Y22.47%
OCF growth 5Y40.05%