FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:FWRG • US33748L1017

Current stock price

12.86 USD
-0.3 (-2.28%)
At close:
12.86 USD
0 (0%)
Pre-Market:

This FWRG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. FWRG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • FWRG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • FWRG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Of the past 5 years FWRG 4 years were profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years FWRG had a positive operating cash flow.
FWRG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFFWRG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 50M 100M

1.2 Ratios

  • FWRG's Return On Assets of 1.12% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. FWRG outperforms 43.65% of its industry peers.
  • FWRG's Return On Equity of 3.10% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. FWRG outperforms 56.35% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 1.45%, FWRG is doing worse than 74.60% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for FWRG is significantly below the industry average of 10.55%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.12%
ROE 3.1%
ROIC 1.45%
ROA(3y)1.46%
ROA(5y)0.96%
ROE(3y)3.6%
ROE(5y)2.34%
ROIC(3y)2.17%
ROIC(5y)1.96%
FWRG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICFWRG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 -5 -10 -15

1.3 Margins

  • FWRG has a Profit Margin of 1.59%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: FWRG outperforms 42.86% of its industry peers.
  • FWRG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 2.77%, FWRG is doing worse than 73.02% of the companies in the same industry.
  • FWRG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • The Gross Margin of FWRG (61.65%) is better than 76.98% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of FWRG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 2.77%
PM (TTM) 1.59%
GM 61.65%
OM growth 3Y-4.91%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y18.93%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.53%
GM growth 5Y0.93%
FWRG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsFWRG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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1

2. FWRG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • FWRG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • FWRG has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, FWRG has more shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for FWRG is higher compared to a year ago.
FWRG Yearly Shares OutstandingFWRG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M
FWRG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsFWRG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B

2.2 Solvency

  • FWRG has an Altman-Z score of 1.08. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 1.08, FWRG is not doing good in the industry: 63.49% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • FWRG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.43. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.43, FWRG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.63% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.43
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.08
ROIC/WACC0.18
WACC7.91%
FWRG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFFWRG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.29 indicates that FWRG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Current ratio value of 0.29, FWRG is not doing good in the industry: 93.65% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • FWRG has a Quick Ratio of 0.29. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of FWRG (0.25) is worse than 91.27% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.29
Quick Ratio 0.25
FWRG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesFWRG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

8

3. FWRG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • FWRG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 1.97%.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 37.21% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
  • Looking at the last year, FWRG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 20.34%.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 28.99% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.97%
EPS 3Y37.21%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%2300%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.34%
Revenue growth 3Y18.74%
Revenue growth 5Y28.99%
Sales Q2Q%20.15%

3.2 Future

  • FWRG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 12.18% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, FWRG will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 12.19% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-40.23%
EPS Next 2Y-0.33%
EPS Next 3Y12.91%
EPS Next 5Y12.18%
Revenue Next Year13.4%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3Y13.05%
Revenue Next 5Y12.19%

3.3 Evolution

  • The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
  • Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
FWRG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesFWRG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
FWRG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesFWRG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

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1

4. FWRG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 41.48 indicates a quite expensive valuation of FWRG.
  • FWRG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • FWRG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 69.41, which means the current valuation is very expensive for FWRG.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, FWRG is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 64.29% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
  • FWRG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.99.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 41.48
Fwd PE 69.41
FWRG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsFWRG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • FWRG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. FWRG is cheaper than 65.87% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 9.68
FWRG Per share dataFWRG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as FWRG's earnings are expected to grow with 12.91% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-0.33%
EPS Next 3Y12.91%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. FWRG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for FWRG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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FWRG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP

NASDAQ:FWRG (4/28/2026, 8:00:01 PM)

Premarket: 12.86 0 (0%)

12.86

-0.3 (-2.28%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Industry Strength28.57
Industry Growth43.48
Earnings (Last)02-24
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners125.09%
Inst Owner Change0.19%
Ins Owners3.34%
Ins Owner Change27.4%
Market Cap792.56M
Revenue(TTM)1.22B
Net Income(TTM)19.43M
Analysts86.67
Price Target19.89 (54.67%)
Short Float %9.58%
Short Ratio3.1
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)105.47%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.73%
Max EPS beat(2)236.66%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)8.98%
Min EPS beat(4)-130.75%
Max EPS beat(4)236.66%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.99%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)21.65%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.58%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.91%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.14%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.32%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.32%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.32%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.12%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.35%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.85%
PT rev (1m)-12.09%
PT rev (3m)-12.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-229.45%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.73%
EPS NY rev (3m)-45.56%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.74%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 41.48
Fwd PE 69.41
P/S 0.65
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 6.29
P/B 1.27
P/tB 25.43
EV/EBITDA 9.68
EPS(TTM)0.31
EY2.41%
EPS(NY)0.19
Fwd EY1.44%
FCF(TTM)-0.52
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.04
OCFY15.89%
SpS19.84
BVpS10.16
TBVpS0.51
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number8.41899 (-34.53%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.12%
ROE 3.1%
ROCE 2.15%
ROIC 1.45%
ROICexc 1.47%
ROICexgc 2.38%
OM 2.77%
PM (TTM) 1.59%
GM 61.65%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.46%
ROA(5y)0.96%
ROE(3y)3.6%
ROE(5y)2.34%
ROIC(3y)2.17%
ROIC(5y)1.96%
ROICexc(3y)2.23%
ROICexc(5y)2.04%
ROICexgc(3y)3.94%
ROICexgc(5y)3.84%
ROCE(3y)3.21%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.1%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-3.95%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-4.91%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y18.93%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.53%
GM growth 5Y0.93%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.43
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 2.47
Cap/Depr 210.31%
Cap/Sales 12.9%
Interest Coverage 2.18
Cash Conversion 115.69%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.29
Quick Ratio 0.25
Altman-Z 1.08
F-Score4
WACC7.91%
ROIC/WACC0.18
Cap/Depr(3y)212.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)186.56%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.67%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.92%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.97%
EPS 3Y37.21%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%2300%
EPS Next Y-40.23%
EPS Next 2Y-0.33%
EPS Next 3Y12.91%
EPS Next 5Y12.18%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.34%
Revenue growth 3Y18.74%
Revenue growth 5Y28.99%
Sales Q2Q%20.15%
Revenue Next Year13.4%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3Y13.05%
Revenue Next 5Y12.19%
EBIT growth 1Y-24.96%
EBIT growth 3Y12.91%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year352.26%
EBIT Next 3Y82.14%
EBIT Next 5Y50.08%
FCF growth 1Y-157.3%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y8.85%
OCF growth 3Y26%
OCF growth 5YN/A

FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP / FWRG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to FWRG.


What is the valuation status for FWRG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 1 / 10 to FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG). This can be considered as Overvalued.


What is the profitability of FWRG stock?

FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for FWRG stock?

The financial health rating of FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) is 1 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for FWRG stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) is expected to decline by -40.23% in the next year.