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FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP (FWRG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:FWRG - Nasdaq - US33748L1017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

16.84  -0.12 (-0.71%)

After market: 16.84 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

2

We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to FWRG. FWRG was compared to 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. FWRG may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. While showing a medium growth rate, FWRG is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year FWRG was profitable.
FWRG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years FWRG reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Of the past 5 years FWRG 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
FWRG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFFWRG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M

1.2 Ratios

FWRG has a worse Return On Assets (0.70%) than 61.36% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 1.82%, FWRG is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.30% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 1.70%, FWRG is doing worse than 71.97% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for FWRG is significantly below the industry average of 13.91%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.82%
ROIC 1.7%
ROA(3y)1.29%
ROA(5y)-0.25%
ROE(3y)3.01%
ROE(5y)-1.38%
ROIC(3y)2.26%
ROIC(5y)N/A
FWRG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICFWRG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -5 -10 -15

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 1.03%, FWRG is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 3.28%, FWRG is doing worse than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRG has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 62.40%, FWRG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of FWRG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.28%
PM (TTM) 1.03%
GM 62.4%
OM growth 3Y3.02%
OM growth 5Y16.3%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.64%
GM growth 5Y-0.07%
FWRG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsFWRG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 40 60

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), FWRG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, FWRG has more shares outstanding
FWRG has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
FWRG Yearly Shares OutstandingFWRG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
FWRG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsFWRG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.29, we must say that FWRG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
FWRG has a Altman-Z score of 1.29. This is in the lower half of the industry: FWRG underperforms 60.61% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.32 indicates that FWRG is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.32, FWRG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.45% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.32
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.29
ROIC/WACC0.19
WACC9.18%
FWRG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFFWRG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.31 indicates that FWRG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
FWRG has a worse Current ratio (0.31) than 88.64% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.27 indicates that FWRG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.27, FWRG is doing worse than 89.39% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.27
FWRG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesFWRG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

FWRG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -54.21%.
The Revenue has grown by 14.43% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, FWRG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 18.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-54.21%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-108.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.43%
Revenue growth 3Y19.11%
Revenue growth 5Y18.41%
Sales Q2Q%16.41%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 18.62% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
FWRG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 14.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y-46.05%
EPS Next 2Y7.8%
EPS Next 3Y12.78%
EPS Next 5Y18.62%
Revenue Next Year18.9%
Revenue Next 2Y17.43%
Revenue Next 3Y15.94%
Revenue Next 5Y14.34%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
FWRG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesFWRG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
FWRG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesFWRG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 99.06, FWRG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
FWRG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of FWRG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.50), we can say FWRG is valued expensively.
FWRG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 47.67.
60.61% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than FWRG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.44. FWRG is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 99.06
Fwd PE 47.67
FWRG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsFWRG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

FWRG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 12.6
FWRG Per share dataFWRG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

FWRG's earnings are expected to grow with 12.78% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y7.8%
EPS Next 3Y12.78%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for FWRG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP

NASDAQ:FWRG (7/18/2025, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 16.84 0 (0%)

16.84

-0.12 (-0.71%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)05-06 2025-05-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)08-04 2025-08-04/bmo
Inst Owners89.23%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.37%
Ins Owner Change33.15%
Market Cap1.03B
Analysts87.06
Price Target21.33 (26.66%)
Short Float %13.73%
Short Ratio6.27
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-91.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-130.75%
Max EPS beat(2)-53.09%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-49.55%
Min EPS beat(4)-130.75%
Max EPS beat(4)12.04%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.52%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-9.38%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.45%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.58%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.32%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.75%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.84%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.53%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.89%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-10.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-56.11%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.69%
EPS NY rev (3m)-54.61%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.13%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.23%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.08%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 99.06
Fwd PE 47.67
P/S 0.97
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 9.27
P/B 1.72
P/tB 32.34
EV/EBITDA 12.6
EPS(TTM)0.17
EY1.01%
EPS(NY)0.35
Fwd EY2.1%
FCF(TTM)-0.41
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.82
OCFY10.79%
SpS17.31
BVpS9.78
TBVpS0.52
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.82%
ROCE 2.47%
ROIC 1.7%
ROICexc 1.73%
ROICexgc 2.92%
OM 3.28%
PM (TTM) 1.03%
GM 62.4%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.29%
ROA(5y)-0.25%
ROE(3y)3.01%
ROE(5y)-1.38%
ROIC(3y)2.26%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)2.35%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.37%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)3.27%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-0.6%
ROICexcg growth 5Y21.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y7.43%
ROICexc growth 5Y27.07%
OM growth 3Y3.02%
OM growth 5Y16.3%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.64%
GM growth 5Y-0.07%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.32
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 1.98
Cap/Depr 219.47%
Cap/Sales 12.89%
Interest Coverage 2.74
Cash Conversion 114.69%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.27
Altman-Z 1.29
F-Score3
WACC9.18%
ROIC/WACC0.19
Cap/Depr(3y)204.11%
Cap/Depr(5y)162.05%
Cap/Sales(3y)10.26%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.92%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-54.21%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-108.33%
EPS Next Y-46.05%
EPS Next 2Y7.8%
EPS Next 3Y12.78%
EPS Next 5Y18.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.43%
Revenue growth 3Y19.11%
Revenue growth 5Y18.41%
Sales Q2Q%16.41%
Revenue Next Year18.9%
Revenue Next 2Y17.43%
Revenue Next 3Y15.94%
Revenue Next 5Y14.34%
EBIT growth 1Y-24.14%
EBIT growth 3Y22.71%
EBIT growth 5Y37.72%
EBIT Next Year185.51%
EBIT Next 3Y59.65%
EBIT Next 5Y39.65%
FCF growth 1Y-362.42%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y45.66%
OCF growth 3Y22.47%
OCF growth 5Y40.05%