FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:FWRD - US34986A1043 - Common Stock
21.05 USD
+0.04 (+0.19%)
21.05 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to FWRD. FWRD was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. FWRD has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. While showing a medium growth rate, FWRD is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year FWRD has reported negative net income.
In the past year FWRD had a positive cash flow from operations.
FWRD had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years FWRD 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
FWRD's Return On Assets of -7.41% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. FWRD outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -134.72%, FWRD is doing worse than 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.81%, FWRD is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for FWRD is below the industry average of 11.55%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.28%) for FWRD is well above the current ROIC(2.81%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Operating Margin value of 3.49%, FWRD is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRD has declined.
FWRD's Gross Margin of 41.44% is amongst the best of the industry. FWRD outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of FWRD has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% |
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), FWRD is creating some value.
FWRD has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
FWRD has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for FWRD has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
FWRD has an Altman-Z score of 1.00. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRD is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.00, FWRD is doing worse than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FWRD is 266.51, which is on the high side as it means it would take FWRD, 266.51 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 266.51, FWRD perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 11.27 is on the high side and indicates that FWRD has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 11.27, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 82.61% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1 |
ROIC/WACC0.38
WACC7.45%
2.3 Liquidity
FWRD has a Current Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
FWRD has a worse Current ratio (1.20) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.20 indicates that FWRD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
FWRD has a worse Quick ratio (1.20) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for FWRD have decreased strongly by -349.45% in the last year.
Looking at the last year, FWRD shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 80.51%.
The Revenue has been growing by 15.28% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
3.2 Future
FWRD is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 29.36% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.99% on average per year.
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for FWRD. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 134.01, which means the current valuation is very expensive for FWRD.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 60.87% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.98, FWRD is valued quite expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 134.01 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of FWRD is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 99.99 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
FWRD's earnings are expected to grow with 29.36% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
FWRD has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
In the last 3 months the price of FWRD has falen by -31.81%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.54, FWRD pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, FWRD is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
FWRD has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
21.05
+0.04 (+0.19%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.87%
Inst Owner Change4.67%
Ins Owners1.54%
Ins Owner Change7.56%
Market Cap648.13M
Revenue(TTM)2.47B
Net Income(TTM)-204.50M
Analysts80
Price Target36.38 (72.83%)
Short Float %19.43%
Short Ratio4.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.41%
Min EPS beat(2)-96.96%
Max EPS beat(2)121.79%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1782.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-6208.61%
Max EPS beat(4)121.79%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-714.67%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-480.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-357.44%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.48%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.81%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.05%
PT rev (1m)-1.83%
PT rev (3m)2.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-79.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-39.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.66%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.32%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.97%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 134.01 | ||
| P/S | 0.26 | ||
| P/FCF | 99.99 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.89 | ||
| P/B | 4.27 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1 |
EPS(TTM)-4.54
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY0.75%
FCF(TTM)0.21
FCFY1%
OCF(TTM)1.32
OCFY6.29%
SpS81.87
BVpS4.93
TBVpS-43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROCE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.37% | ||
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% | ||
| FCFM | 0.26% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
ROICexc(3y)8.66%
ROICexc(5y)9.16%
ROICexgc(3y)15.75%
ROICexgc(5y)16.83%
ROCE(3y)10.95%
ROCE(5y)11.6%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-43.13%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-51.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y-32.28%
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 24.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 18.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1 |
F-Score3
WACC7.45%
ROIC/WACC0.38
Cap/Depr(3y)55.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.72%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.95%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-46.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-33.46%
EBIT growth 5Y-16.03%
EBIT Next Year86.1%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-97.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-85.21%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
FORWARD AIR CORP / FWRD FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for FORWARD AIR CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to FWRD.
What is the valuation status of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for FORWARD AIR CORP?
FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is FORWARD AIR CORP?
The financial health rating of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is 2 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is expected to grow by 51.46% in the next year.