FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:FWRD - US34986A1043 - Common Stock
25.99 USD
-0.85 (-3.17%)
25.99 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, FWRD scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. FWRD was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While FWRD is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. FWRD has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
FWRD had negative earnings in the past year.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
FWRD had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
FWRD has a Return On Assets of -7.41%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: FWRD outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -134.72%, FWRD is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.81%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: FWRD outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for FWRD is below the industry average of 12.53%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.81%) for FWRD is well below the 3 year average (8.28%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that FWRD had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
1.3 Margins
The Operating Margin of FWRD (3.49%) is better than 69.57% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRD has declined.
The Gross Margin of FWRD (41.44%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of FWRD has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% |
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), FWRD is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRD has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
FWRD has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
FWRD has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
FWRD has an Altman-Z score of 1.03. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRD is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of FWRD (1.03) is worse than 65.22% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FWRD is 266.51, which is on the high side as it means it would take FWRD, 266.51 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 266.51, FWRD perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 11.27 is on the high side and indicates that FWRD has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 11.27, FWRD is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.37
WACC7.54%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.20 indicates that FWRD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of FWRD (1.20) is worse than 73.91% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.20, FWRD is doing worse than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for FWRD have decreased strongly by -226.59% in the last year.
FWRD shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.11%.
Measured over the past years, FWRD shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-226.59%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-98.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.11%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%-3.86%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 46.97% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.20% on average per year.
EPS Next Y39.06%
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.21%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
FWRD reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
FWRD is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 83.27.
65.22% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than FWRD, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.86, FWRD is valued quite expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 83.27 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 123.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.78 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates FWRD does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as FWRD's earnings are expected to grow with 46.97% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%, FWRD has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
FWRD's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.76.
FWRD's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
FWRD has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
25.99
-0.85 (-3.17%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.86%
Inst Owner Change-2.37%
Ins Owners1.57%
Ins Owner Change10.63%
Market Cap800.23M
Analysts80
Price Target37.06 (42.59%)
Short Float %17.52%
Short Ratio6.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.41%
Min EPS beat(2)-96.96%
Max EPS beat(2)121.79%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1782.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-6208.61%
Max EPS beat(4)121.79%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-714.67%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-480.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-357.44%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.48%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.81%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.05%
PT rev (1m)4.6%
PT rev (3m)14.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)22.03%
EPS NQ rev (3m)24.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-51.96%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.6%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.76%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 83.27 | ||
| P/S | 0.32 | ||
| P/FCF | 123.45 | ||
| P/OCF | 19.62 | ||
| P/B | 5.27 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.78 |
EPS(TTM)-5.76
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.31
Fwd EY1.2%
FCF(TTM)0.21
FCFY0.81%
OCF(TTM)1.32
OCFY5.1%
SpS81.87
BVpS4.93
TBVpS-43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROCE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.37% | ||
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% | ||
| FCFM | 0.26% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
ROICexc(3y)8.66%
ROICexc(5y)9.16%
ROICexgc(3y)15.75%
ROICexgc(5y)16.83%
ROCE(3y)10.95%
ROCE(5y)11.6%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-43.13%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-25.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-51.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y-32.28%
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 24.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 18.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.03 |
F-Score3
WACC7.54%
ROIC/WACC0.37
Cap/Depr(3y)55.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.72%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.95%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-226.59%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-98.23%
EPS Next Y39.06%
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.11%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%-3.86%
Revenue Next Year1.21%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-46.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-33.46%
EBIT growth 5Y-16.03%
EBIT Next Year87.73%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-97.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-85.21%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A