NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:EYE - Nasdaq - US63845R1077 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
EYE gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 120 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While EYE is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, EYE is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year EYE was profitable.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years EYE reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years EYE had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
EYE has a Return On Assets (-1.29%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of EYE (-3.11%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 2.04%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for EYE is significantly below the industry average of 13.34%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.04%) for EYE is above the 3 year average (1.97%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.29% | ||
| ROE | -3.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.04% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
1.3 Margins
With a Operating Margin value of 2.16%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.83% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of EYE has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 58.20%, EYE belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.67% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of EYE has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.2% |
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
EYE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for EYE has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for EYE has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
EYE has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
EYE has an Altman-Z score of 1.88. This is not the best score and indicates that EYE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of EYE (1.88) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of EYE is 7.49, which is on the high side as it means it would take EYE, 7.49 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
EYE has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.49. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: EYE outperforms 56.67% of its industry peers.
EYE has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.29. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.29, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.50% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.88 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC9.26%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.54 indicates that EYE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.54, EYE is doing worse than 92.50% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.35 indicates that EYE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.35, EYE is not doing good in the industry: 67.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for EYE have decreased by -8.06% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, EYE shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.68% on average per year.
EYE shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -9.58%.
Measured over the past years, EYE shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.12% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.06%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%6.25%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-5.94%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 15.87% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.80% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y17.49%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.87%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.8%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 36.89, which means the current valuation is very expensive for EYE.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as EYE.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of EYE to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.52), we can say EYE is valued slightly more expensively.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.00, EYE can be considered very expensive at the moment.
EYE's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
EYE is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.25, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as EYE.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, EYE is valued a bit cheaper than 60.83% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 35.99 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
EYE's earnings are expected to grow with 15.87% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.11
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
EYE does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
21.03
+0.17 (+0.81%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners103.87%
Inst Owner Change5.6%
Ins Owners1.88%
Ins Owner Change6.36%
Market Cap1.66B
Analysts78.67
Price Target19.18 (-8.8%)
Short Float %7.6%
Short Ratio2.28
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.11%
Min EPS beat(2)9.52%
Max EPS beat(2)12.69%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)43.68%
Min EPS beat(4)9.52%
Max EPS beat(4)83.55%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)45.64%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)33.07%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)86.41%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.41%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.41%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.71%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.58%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.4%
PT rev (1m)31.01%
PT rev (3m)33.33%
EPS NQ rev (1m)16.34%
EPS NQ rev (3m)8.58%
EPS NY rev (1m)11.13%
EPS NY rev (3m)20.1%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.66%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.31%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27 | ||
| P/S | 0.9 | ||
| P/FCF | 35.99 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.72 | ||
| P/B | 1.99 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.81 |
EPS(TTM)0.57
EY2.71%
EPS(NY)0.78
Fwd EY3.7%
FCF(TTM)0.58
FCFY2.78%
OCF(TTM)1.8
OCFY8.54%
SpS23.41
BVpS10.58
TBVpS-1.4
PEG (NY)2.11
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.29% | ||
| ROE | -3.11% | ||
| ROCE | 2.59% | ||
| ROIC | 2.04% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.12% | ||
| OM | 2.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.2% | ||
| FCFM | 2.5% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
ROICexc(3y)2.16%
ROICexc(5y)4.2%
ROICexgc(3y)5.73%
ROICexgc(5y)11.7%
ROCE(3y)2.5%
ROCE(5y)4.55%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-36.81%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-9.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-36.88%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.66%
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.92
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.88 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 105.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.17% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 108.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.88 |
F-Score6
WACC9.26%
ROIC/WACC0.22
Cap/Depr(3y)109.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)102.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.3%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.06%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%6.25%
EPS Next Y17.49%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.87%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-5.94%
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.8%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y12.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-39.25%
EBIT growth 5Y-13.48%
EBIT Next Year194.24%
EBIT Next 3Y46.99%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y39.53%
FCF growth 3Y-38.43%
FCF growth 5Y-9.78%
OCF growth 1Y-2.94%
OCF growth 3Y-19.78%
OCF growth 5Y-4.14%