NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:EYE - Nasdaq - US63845R1077 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall EYE gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated EYE against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. EYE has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. EYE is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
EYE had positive earnings in the past year.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years EYE reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -1.29%, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.98% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of -3.11%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.36% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE has a Return On Invested Capital (2.04%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for EYE is significantly below the industry average of 12.95%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.04%) for EYE is above the 3 year average (1.97%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.29% | ||
| ROE | -3.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.04% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
1.3 Margins
EYE has a Operating Margin (2.16%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of EYE has declined.
The Gross Margin of EYE (58.20%) is better than 86.07% of its industry peers.
EYE's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.2% |
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so EYE is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, EYE has more shares outstanding
EYE has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, EYE has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
EYE has an Altman-Z score of 2.04. This is not the best score and indicates that EYE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.04, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.54% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.49. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as EYE would need 7.49 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.49, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.84% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.29. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of EYE (0.29) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.04 |
ROIC/WACC0.23
WACC9.08%
2.3 Liquidity
EYE has a Current Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
EYE has a worse Current ratio (0.54) than 91.80% of its industry peers.
EYE has a Quick Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.35, EYE is doing worse than 64.75% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for EYE have decreased by -8.06% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -7.68% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, EYE shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -9.58% in the last year.
EYE shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.12% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.06%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%6.25%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-5.94%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, EYE will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 18.33% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, EYE will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.86% on average per year.
EPS Next Y18.28%
EPS Next 2Y20.9%
EPS Next 3Y18.33%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.22%
Revenue Next 3Y4.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 44.40, EYE can be considered very expensive at the moment.
EYE's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
EYE's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.54.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 31.48, which means the current valuation is very expensive for EYE.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as EYE.
EYE's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 36.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 44.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 31.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
EYE's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
EYE's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 43.32 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 17.27 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
EYE's earnings are expected to grow with 18.33% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.43
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y20.9%
EPS Next 3Y18.33%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
EYE does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
25.31
+0.22 (+0.88%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.16%
Inst Owner Change-0.31%
Ins Owners2.19%
Ins Owner Change11.05%
Market Cap2.00B
Analysts78.67
Price Target23.46 (-7.31%)
Short Float %9.39%
Short Ratio2.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.11%
Min EPS beat(2)9.52%
Max EPS beat(2)12.69%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)43.68%
Min EPS beat(4)9.52%
Max EPS beat(4)83.55%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)45.64%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)33.07%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)86.41%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.41%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.41%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.71%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.58%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.4%
PT rev (1m)22.34%
PT rev (3m)60.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)18.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.24%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.87%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.62%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 44.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 31.48 | ||
| P/S | 1.08 | ||
| P/FCF | 43.32 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.1 | ||
| P/B | 2.39 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 17.27 |
EPS(TTM)0.57
EY2.25%
EPS(NY)0.8
Fwd EY3.18%
FCF(TTM)0.58
FCFY2.31%
OCF(TTM)1.8
OCFY7.09%
SpS23.41
BVpS10.58
TBVpS-1.4
PEG (NY)2.43
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.29% | ||
| ROE | -3.11% | ||
| ROCE | 2.59% | ||
| ROIC | 2.04% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.12% | ||
| OM | 2.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.2% | ||
| FCFM | 2.5% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
ROICexc(3y)2.16%
ROICexc(5y)4.2%
ROICexgc(3y)5.73%
ROICexgc(5y)11.7%
ROCE(3y)2.5%
ROCE(5y)4.55%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-36.81%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-9.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-36.88%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.66%
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.92
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.88 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 105.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.17% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 108.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.04 |
F-Score6
WACC9.08%
ROIC/WACC0.23
Cap/Depr(3y)109.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)102.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.3%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.06%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%6.25%
EPS Next Y18.28%
EPS Next 2Y20.9%
EPS Next 3Y18.33%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-5.94%
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.22%
Revenue Next 3Y4.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y12.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-39.25%
EBIT growth 5Y-13.48%
EBIT Next Year194.24%
EBIT Next 3Y46.99%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y39.53%
FCF growth 3Y-38.43%
FCF growth 5Y-9.78%
OCF growth 1Y-2.94%
OCF growth 3Y-19.78%
OCF growth 5Y-4.14%