NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:EYE - Nasdaq - US63845R1077 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall EYE gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated EYE against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. EYE has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. EYE is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year EYE was profitable.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years EYE reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -1.42%, EYE is doing worse than 61.16% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of -3.49%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 47.11% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE's Return On Invested Capital of 2.05% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. EYE outperforms 44.63% of its industry peers.
EYE had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 1.97%. This is significantly below the industry average of 13.08%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.05%) for EYE is above the 3 year average (1.97%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.42% | ||
| ROE | -3.49% | ||
| ROIC | 2.05% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
1.3 Margins
EYE's Operating Margin of 2.19% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. EYE outperforms 50.41% of its industry peers.
EYE's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 58.10%, EYE belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.78% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of EYE has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.19% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.1% |
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), EYE is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for EYE has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, EYE has less shares outstanding
EYE has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
EYE has an Altman-Z score of 1.53. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.53, EYE is doing worse than 66.12% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of EYE is 9.18, which is on the high side as it means it would take EYE, 9.18 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
EYE has a Debt to FCF ratio of 9.18. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: EYE outperforms 52.07% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that EYE is not too dependend on debt financing.
EYE has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 9.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.24
WACC8.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.53 indicates that EYE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
EYE has a worse Current ratio (0.53) than 93.39% of its industry peers.
EYE has a Quick Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
EYE has a Quick ratio of 0.33. This is in the lower half of the industry: EYE underperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for EYE have decreased by -9.84% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, EYE shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.68% on average per year.
EYE shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -14.26%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.12% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.84%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.26%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-13.65%
3.2 Future
EYE is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.32% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, EYE will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.21% on average per year.
EPS Next Y5.72%
EPS Next 2Y10.52%
EPS Next 3Y11.32%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.8%
Revenue Next 2Y3.7%
Revenue Next 3Y4.21%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 24.09 indicates a rather expensive valuation of EYE.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, EYE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 60.33% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.10. EYE is around the same levels.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 22.79, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of EYE.
EYE's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
EYE is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 20.74, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.79 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of EYE is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of EYE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: EYE is cheaper than 61.98% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 27.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.97 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates EYE does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)4.21
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.52%
EPS Next 3Y11.32%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for EYE!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
13.25
+0.11 (+0.84%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners103.87%
Inst Owner Change0.71%
Ins Owners1.88%
Ins Owner Change7.99%
Market Cap1.05B
Analysts72
Price Target14.64 (10.49%)
Short Float %9.6%
Short Ratio4.12
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)48.12%
Min EPS beat(2)12.69%
Max EPS beat(2)83.55%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)46%
Min EPS beat(4)12.69%
Max EPS beat(4)83.55%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)45.6%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)33.02%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)89.1%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.98%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.31%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.86%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.31%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.64%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.83%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.46%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)6.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.25%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.17%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.94%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.79 | ||
| P/S | 0.57 | ||
| P/FCF | 27.46 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.84 | ||
| P/B | 1.28 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.97 |
EPS(TTM)0.55
EY4.15%
EPS(NY)0.58
Fwd EY4.39%
FCF(TTM)0.48
FCFY3.64%
OCF(TTM)1.69
OCFY12.76%
SpS23.07
BVpS10.33
TBVpS-1.65
PEG (NY)4.21
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.42% | ||
| ROE | -3.49% | ||
| ROCE | 2.6% | ||
| ROIC | 2.05% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.1% | ||
| OM | 2.19% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.1% | ||
| FCFM | 2.09% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
ROICexc(3y)2.16%
ROICexc(5y)4.2%
ROICexgc(3y)5.73%
ROICexgc(5y)11.7%
ROCE(3y)2.5%
ROCE(5y)4.55%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-36.81%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-9.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-36.88%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.66%
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 9.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 103.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.24% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.99 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 100.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
F-Score6
WACC8.53%
ROIC/WACC0.24
Cap/Depr(3y)109.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)102.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.3%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.84%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y5.72%
EPS Next 2Y10.52%
EPS Next 3Y11.32%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.26%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-13.65%
Revenue Next Year4.8%
Revenue Next 2Y3.7%
Revenue Next 3Y4.21%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y0.04%
EBIT growth 3Y-39.25%
EBIT growth 5Y-13.48%
EBIT Next Year185.23%
EBIT Next 3Y43.31%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-34.53%
FCF growth 3Y-38.43%
FCF growth 5Y-9.78%
OCF growth 1Y-22.76%
OCF growth 3Y-19.78%
OCF growth 5Y-4.14%