NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:EYE - Nasdaq - US63845R1077 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
EYE gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 124 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. EYE has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. While showing a medium growth rate, EYE is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
EYE had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year EYE had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: EYE reported negative net income in multiple years.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -0.72%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.55% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE's Return On Equity of -1.66% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. EYE outperforms 52.42% of its industry peers.
EYE has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.56%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: EYE outperforms 46.77% of its industry peers.
EYE had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 1.97%. This is significantly below the industry average of 11.79%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.56%) for EYE is above the 3 year average (1.97%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.72% | ||
| ROE | -1.66% | ||
| ROIC | 2.56% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
1.3 Margins
With a Operating Margin value of 2.66%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.03% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of EYE (58.61%) is better than 87.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of EYE has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.66% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.61% |
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
EYE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, EYE has more shares outstanding
EYE has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
EYE has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
EYE has an Altman-Z score of 2.10. This is not the best score and indicates that EYE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
EYE has a Altman-Z score (2.10) which is in line with its industry peers.
EYE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.80. This is a neutral value as EYE would need 4.80 years to pay back of all of its debts.
EYE has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.80) than 68.55% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that EYE is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.30, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.87% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.1 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC8.96%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.52 indicates that EYE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.52, EYE is not doing good in the industry: 91.13% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
EYE has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
EYE has a worse Quick ratio (0.31) than 68.55% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.31 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
EYE shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 0.00%.
EYE shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.68% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -4.45% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.12% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)0%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%20%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-4.45%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%7.68%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 18.33% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.86% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y18.28%
EPS Next 2Y20.9%
EPS Next 3Y18.33%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.22%
Revenue Next 3Y4.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 39.35 indicates a quite expensive valuation of EYE.
EYE's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
EYE is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.85, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
EYE is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 29.37.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of EYE is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 34.98. EYE is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.37 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as EYE.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of EYE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: EYE is cheaper than 60.48% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 32.89 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as EYE's earnings are expected to grow with 18.33% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.15
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y20.9%
EPS Next 3Y18.33%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for EYE!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
23.61
-0.26 (-1.09%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners114.07%
Inst Owner Change-2.48%
Ins Owners2.09%
Ins Owner Change11.05%
Market Cap1.87B
Analysts81.33
Price Target27.85 (17.96%)
Short Float %9.57%
Short Ratio3.29
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)19.89%
Min EPS beat(2)9.52%
Max EPS beat(2)30.26%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)34.01%
Min EPS beat(4)9.52%
Max EPS beat(4)83.55%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)45.05%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)16.75%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)81.36%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.45%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.41%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.49%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.4%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.98%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.49%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.43%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.24%
PT rev (1m)38.58%
PT rev (3m)90.24%
EPS NQ rev (1m)8.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)79.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.67%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.67%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.43%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.15%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.37 | ||
| P/S | 0.99 | ||
| P/FCF | 32.89 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.9 | ||
| P/B | 2.19 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.06 |
EPS(TTM)0.6
EY2.54%
EPS(NY)0.8
Fwd EY3.41%
FCF(TTM)0.72
FCFY3.04%
OCF(TTM)1.83
OCFY7.75%
SpS23.85
BVpS10.76
TBVpS-1.22
PEG (NY)2.15
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.72% | ||
| ROE | -1.66% | ||
| ROCE | 3.24% | ||
| ROIC | 2.56% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.64% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.15% | ||
| OM | 2.66% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.61% | ||
| FCFM | 3.01% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
ROICexc(3y)2.16%
ROICexc(5y)4.2%
ROICexgc(3y)5.73%
ROICexgc(5y)11.7%
ROCE(3y)2.5%
ROCE(5y)4.55%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-36.81%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-9.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-36.88%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.66%
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.96
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.8 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.84 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 99.27% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 104.23% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.31 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.1 |
F-Score6
WACC8.96%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)109.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)102.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.3%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)0%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%20%
EPS Next Y18.28%
EPS Next 2Y20.9%
EPS Next 3Y18.33%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-4.45%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%7.68%
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.22%
Revenue Next 3Y4.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y52.78%
EBIT growth 3Y-39.25%
EBIT growth 5Y-13.48%
EBIT Next Year196.32%
EBIT Next 3Y49.89%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y80.13%
FCF growth 3Y-38.43%
FCF growth 5Y-9.78%
OCF growth 1Y0.91%
OCF growth 3Y-19.78%
OCF growth 5Y-4.14%