ELASTIC NV (ESTC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ESTC - NL0013056914 - Common Stock
80.06 USD
+2.47 (+3.18%)
80.06 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to ESTC. ESTC was compared to 283 industry peers in the Software industry. The financial health of ESTC is average, but there are quite some concerns on its profitability. ESTC shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ESTC had positive earnings in the past year.
ESTC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ESTC reported 4 times negative net income.
ESTC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ESTC has a Return On Assets of -4.16%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ESTC outperforms 47.70% of its industry peers.
ESTC's Return On Equity of -11.64% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ESTC outperforms 48.06% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -4.16% | ||
| ROE | -11.64% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)-4.99%
ROA(5y)-8.13%
ROE(3y)-20.84%
ROE(5y)-28.06%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ESTC has a better Gross Margin (74.39%) than 64.31% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ESTC has remained more or less at the same level.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for ESTC so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 74.39% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.6%
GM growth 5Y0.85%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ESTC does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for ESTC has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
ESTC has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ESTC has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ESTC has an Altman-Z score of 3.29. This indicates that ESTC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ESTC has a Altman-Z score of 3.29. This is in the better half of the industry: ESTC outperforms 61.48% of its industry peers.
ESTC has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.18. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as ESTC would need 2.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ESTC (2.18) is better than 67.84% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.61 indicates that ESTC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
ESTC's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.61 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ESTC is outperformed by 67.14% of its industry peers.
Although ESTC does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.29 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC7.63%
2.3 Liquidity
ESTC has a Current Ratio of 1.92. This is a normal value and indicates that ESTC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.92, ESTC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.66% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.92 indicates that ESTC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ESTC (1.92) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.92 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.92 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 71.43% over the past year.
ESTC shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 17.04%.
Measured over the past years, ESTC shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 28.24% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)71.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%123.81%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y19.81%
Revenue growth 5Y28.24%
Sales Q2Q%15.95%
3.2 Future
ESTC is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 27.47% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, ESTC will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 14.95% on average per year.
EPS Next Y14.2%
EPS Next 2Y15.34%
EPS Next 3Y16.04%
EPS Next 5Y27.47%
Revenue Next Year12.96%
Revenue Next 2Y12.74%
Revenue Next 3Y13.28%
Revenue Next 5Y14.95%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 39.25 indicates a quite expensive valuation of ESTC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ESTC is valued a bit cheaper than 61.13% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ESTC to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.24), we can say ESTC is valued slightly more expensively.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 34.37, which means the current valuation is very expensive for ESTC.
ESTC's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 35.82, ESTC is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 34.37 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ESTC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.02% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 32.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates ESTC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
ESTC's earnings are expected to grow with 16.04% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.76
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y15.34%
EPS Next 3Y16.04%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ESTC does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
80.06
+2.47 (+3.18%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners84.84%
Inst Owner Change-9.45%
Ins Owners13.3%
Ins Owner Change1.54%
Market Cap8.45B
Analysts82.35
Price Target110.3 (37.77%)
Short Float %4.11%
Short Ratio2.46
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)27.49%
Min EPS beat(2)23.43%
Max EPS beat(2)31.56%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)35.94%
Min EPS beat(4)23.43%
Max EPS beat(4)52.52%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)41.46%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)68.28%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)67.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.86%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.12%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.61%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.61%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.2%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.17%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.12%
PT rev (1m)-1.05%
PT rev (3m)-14.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.01%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.01%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.11%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.99%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 34.37 | ||
| P/S | 5.7 | ||
| P/FCF | 32.27 | ||
| P/OCF | 31.74 | ||
| P/B | 9.11 | ||
| P/tB | 14.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)2.04
EY2.55%
EPS(NY)2.33
Fwd EY2.91%
FCF(TTM)2.48
FCFY3.1%
OCF(TTM)2.52
OCFY3.15%
SpS14.06
BVpS8.79
TBVpS5.65
PEG (NY)2.76
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -4.16% | ||
| ROE | -11.64% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 74.39% | ||
| FCFM | 17.65% |
ROA(3y)-4.99%
ROA(5y)-8.13%
ROE(3y)-20.84%
ROE(5y)-28.06%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.6%
GM growth 5Y0.85%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.57
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 35.28% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.29% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.92 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.92 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.29 |
F-Score6
WACC7.63%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)22.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)25.6%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)71.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%123.81%
EPS Next Y14.2%
EPS Next 2Y15.34%
EPS Next 3Y16.04%
EPS Next 5Y27.47%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y19.81%
Revenue growth 5Y28.24%
Sales Q2Q%15.95%
Revenue Next Year12.96%
Revenue Next 2Y12.74%
Revenue Next 3Y13.28%
Revenue Next 5Y14.95%
EBIT growth 1Y55.88%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year27.86%
EBIT Next 3Y23.9%
EBIT Next 5Y15.87%
FCF growth 1Y80.18%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y78.92%
OCF growth 3Y260.74%
OCF growth 5YN/A