ELASTIC NV (ESTC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ESTC - NL0013056914 - Common Stock
72.56 USD
-2.88 (-3.82%)
72.56 USD
0 (0%)
ESTC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 276 industry peers in the Software industry. While ESTC seems to be doing ok healthwise, there are quite some concerns on its profitability. ESTC is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ESTC was profitable.
In the past year ESTC had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years ESTC reported 4 times negative net income.
ESTC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ESTC has a Return On Assets of -4.41%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ESTC outperforms 43.48% of its industry peers.
ESTC has a Return On Equity (-12.27%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -4.41% | ||
| ROE | -12.27% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)-4.99%
ROA(5y)-8.13%
ROE(3y)-20.84%
ROE(5y)-28.06%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Gross Margin of ESTC (75.54%) is better than 67.75% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ESTC has remained more or less at the same level.
ESTC does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 75.54% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.6%
GM growth 5Y0.85%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ESTC does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
ESTC has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ESTC has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ESTC has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.27 indicates that ESTC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 3.27, ESTC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.77% of the companies in the same industry.
ESTC has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.89. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.89 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 1.89, ESTC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.20% of the companies in the same industry.
ESTC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.64. This is a neutral value indicating ESTC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.64, ESTC is not doing good in the industry: 69.20% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Although ESTC does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.89 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.27 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC7.75%
2.3 Liquidity
ESTC has a Current Ratio of 1.97. This is a normal value and indicates that ESTC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ESTC has a Current ratio of 1.97. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ESTC outperforms 58.33% of its industry peers.
ESTC has a Quick Ratio of 1.97. This is a normal value and indicates that ESTC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ESTC has a Quick ratio of 1.97. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ESTC outperforms 59.06% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.97 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ESTC shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 54.97%, which is quite impressive.
ESTC shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.98%.
ESTC shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 28.24% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)54.97%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%8.47%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.98%
Revenue growth 3Y19.81%
Revenue growth 5Y28.24%
Sales Q2Q%15.91%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ESTC will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 32.54% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, ESTC will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 15.79% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.43%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y18.11%
EPS Next 5Y32.54%
Revenue Next Year16.54%
Revenue Next 2Y15.08%
Revenue Next 3Y14.68%
Revenue Next 5Y15.79%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 31.01, the valuation of ESTC can be described as expensive.
ESTC's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ESTC is cheaper than 61.96% of the companies in the same industry.
ESTC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.60.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 25.34, which means the current valuation is very expensive for ESTC.
64.49% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ESTC, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.23, ESTC is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 25.34 |
4.2 Price Multiples
73.55% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ESTC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 25.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ESTC's earnings are expected to grow with 18.11% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.38
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y18.11%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ESTC does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
72.56
-2.88 (-3.82%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners89.21%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners12.19%
Ins Owner Change-1.18%
Market Cap7.65B
Revenue(TTM)1.61B
Net Income(TTM)-109.32M
Analysts80
Price Target105.11 (44.86%)
Short Float %4.32%
Short Ratio2.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.71%
Min EPS beat(2)8.92%
Max EPS beat(2)40.5%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)26.1%
Min EPS beat(4)8.92%
Max EPS beat(4)40.5%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)26.26%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)62.72%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)58.72%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.5%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.88%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.5%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.25%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.08%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.41%
PT rev (1m)-13.04%
PT rev (3m)-14.61%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.14%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.74%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 25.34 | ||
| P/S | 4.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 25.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 24.94 | ||
| P/B | 8.58 | ||
| P/tB | 14.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY3.22%
EPS(NY)2.86
Fwd EY3.95%
FCF(TTM)2.87
FCFY3.96%
OCF(TTM)2.91
OCFY4.01%
SpS15.27
BVpS8.46
TBVpS4.87
PEG (NY)1.38
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number21.1
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -4.41% | ||
| ROE | -12.27% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 75.54% | ||
| FCFM | 18.8% |
ROA(3y)-4.99%
ROA(5y)-8.13%
ROE(3y)-20.84%
ROE(5y)-28.06%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.6%
GM growth 5Y0.85%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.65
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.89 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 42.37% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.26% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.97 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.27 |
F-Score6
WACC7.75%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)22.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)25.6%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)54.97%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%8.47%
EPS Next Y22.43%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y18.11%
EPS Next 5Y32.54%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.98%
Revenue growth 3Y19.81%
Revenue growth 5Y28.24%
Sales Q2Q%15.91%
Revenue Next Year16.54%
Revenue Next 2Y15.08%
Revenue Next 3Y14.68%
Revenue Next 5Y15.79%
EBIT growth 1Y68.65%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year33.4%
EBIT Next 3Y23.3%
EBIT Next 5Y15.87%
FCF growth 1Y353.09%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y337.12%
OCF growth 3Y260.74%
OCF growth 5YN/A
ELASTIC NV / ESTC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ELASTIC NV?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ESTC.
Can you provide the valuation status for ELASTIC NV?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ELASTIC NV (ESTC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ELASTIC NV (ESTC) stock?
ELASTIC NV (ESTC) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
How financially healthy is ELASTIC NV?
The financial health rating of ELASTIC NV (ESTC) is 5 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ELASTIC NV?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ELASTIC NV (ESTC) is expected to grow by 22.43% in the next year.