EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP (EPM) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSEARCA:EPM - NYSE Arca - US30049A1079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to EPM. EPM was compared to 214 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While EPM seems to be doing ok healthwise, there are quite some concerns on its profitability. While showing a medium growth rate, EPM is valued expensive at the moment. EPM also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
EPM had positive earnings in the past year.
EPM had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years EPM 4 years were profitable.
EPM had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
EPM has a Return On Assets of 0.99%. This is in the lower half of the industry: EPM underperforms 64.49% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 2.09%, EPM is not doing good in the industry: 62.62% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
EPM's Return On Invested Capital of 3.03% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. EPM is outperformed by 66.82% of its industry peers.
EPM had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 20.97%. This is below the industry average of 25.65%.
The 3 year average ROIC (20.97%) for EPM is well above the current ROIC(3.03%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.99% | ||
| ROE | 2.09% | ||
| ROIC | 3.03% |
ROA(3y)17.31%
ROA(5y)7.39%
ROE(3y)28.79%
ROE(5y)12.86%
ROIC(3y)20.97%
ROIC(5y)14.37%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 1.84%, EPM is not doing good in the industry: 62.62% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
EPM's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
EPM has a worse Operating Margin (6.64%) than 65.89% of its industry peers.
EPM's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 43.75%, EPM perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 49.53% of the companies in the same industry.
EPM's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.84% | ||
| GM | 43.75% |
OM growth 3Y-10.46%
OM growth 5Y-25.75%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-33.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.86%
GM growth 5Y-8.15%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so EPM is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for EPM has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, EPM has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for EPM is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
EPM has an Altman-Z score of 2.11. This is not the best score and indicates that EPM is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
EPM's Altman-Z score of 2.11 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. EPM outperforms 70.56% of its industry peers.
EPM has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.52. This is a neutral value indicating EPM is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
EPM has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.52. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: EPM outperforms 45.33% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.52 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.11 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC10.54%
2.3 Liquidity
EPM has a Current Ratio of 1.64. This is a normal value and indicates that EPM is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.64, EPM is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.56% of the companies in the same industry.
EPM has a Quick Ratio of 1.64. This is a normal value and indicates that EPM is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.64, EPM is doing good in the industry, outperforming 74.30% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for EPM have decreased strongly by -25.00% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, EPM shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -22.88% on average per year.
EPM shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -33.18%.
EPM shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.71% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-25%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y-22.88%
EPS Q2Q%100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.18%
Revenue growth 3Y37.96%
Revenue growth 5Y14.71%
Sales Q2Q%-2.02%
3.2 Future
EPM is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 16.05% yearly.
EPM is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.15% yearly.
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-2.11%
Revenue Next 2Y1.15%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 74.50, the valuation of EPM can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of EPM indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: EPM is more expensive than 67.76% of the companies listed in the same industry.
EPM is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 24.95, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.66, EPM can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of EPM indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: EPM is more expensive than 63.55% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 20.99. EPM is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 74.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
62.62% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than EPM, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.44 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates EPM does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as EPM's earnings are expected to grow with 16.05% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)14.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
EPM has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 11.06%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.26, EPM pays a better dividend. On top of this EPM pays more dividend than 90.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
EPM's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.41.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.06% |
5.2 History
The dividend of EPM has a limited annual growth rate of 3.76%.
EPM has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
EPM has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.76%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
1011.99% of the earnings are spent on dividend by EPM. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
EPM's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP1011.99%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
4.47
+0.13 (+3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners56.21%
Inst Owner Change-0.51%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change1.17%
Market Cap153.10M
Analysts80
Price Target6.76 (51.23%)
Short Float %3.65%
Short Ratio6
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.06% |
Yearly Dividend0.48
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.76%
DP1011.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-222.77%
Min EPS beat(2)-494.06%
Max EPS beat(2)48.51%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-137.5%
Min EPS beat(4)-494.06%
Max EPS beat(4)48.51%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-75.83%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-51.64%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.35%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.63%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.4%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.86%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.41%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.52%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)11.6%
PT rev (1m)-10.17%
PT rev (3m)-13.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-36.36%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-50%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-47.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.9%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.73%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.59%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.55%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 74.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.66 | ||
| P/S | 1.77 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 5.74 | ||
| P/B | 2.01 | ||
| P/tB | 2.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.44 |
EPS(TTM)0.06
EY1.34%
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY3.62%
FCF(TTM)-0.62
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)0.78
OCFY17.43%
SpS2.52
BVpS2.23
TBVpS2.23
PEG (NY)14.3
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.99% | ||
| ROE | 2.09% | ||
| ROCE | 3.99% | ||
| ROIC | 3.03% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.3% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.3% | ||
| OM | 6.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.84% | ||
| GM | 43.75% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)17.31%
ROA(5y)7.39%
ROE(3y)28.79%
ROE(5y)12.86%
ROIC(3y)20.97%
ROIC(5y)14.37%
ROICexc(3y)22.81%
ROICexc(5y)15.8%
ROICexgc(3y)22.81%
ROICexgc(5y)15.8%
ROCE(3y)27.6%
ROCE(5y)18.91%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.57%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-27.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y-27.82%
OM growth 3Y-10.46%
OM growth 5Y-25.75%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-33.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.86%
GM growth 5Y-8.15%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.54
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.52 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 213.58% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 55.26% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 94.97% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.11 |
F-Score4
WACC10.54%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)325.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)306.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)37.87%
Cap/Sales(5y)41.68%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-25%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y-22.88%
EPS Q2Q%100%
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.18%
Revenue growth 3Y37.96%
Revenue growth 5Y14.71%
Sales Q2Q%-2.02%
Revenue Next Year-2.11%
Revenue Next 2Y1.15%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-73.1%
EBIT growth 3Y23.53%
EBIT growth 5Y-14.83%
EBIT Next Year254.61%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-332.29%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-59.77%
OCF growth 3Y68.72%
OCF growth 5Y-1.13%