EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP (EPM) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSEARCA:EPM - NYSE Arca - US30049A1079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to EPM. EPM was compared to 213 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. EPM scores quite bad on profitability, while its financial health is fine. Not spectacular, but in line with the averages. EPM is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate. EPM also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year EPM has reported negative net income.
In the past year EPM had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years EPM 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years EPM had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
EPM has a worse Return On Assets (-0.62%) than 70.89% of its industry peers.
EPM's Return On Equity of -1.35% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. EPM is outperformed by 67.61% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of EPM (2.97%) is worse than 68.08% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for EPM is below the industry average of 25.73%.
The 3 year average ROIC (20.97%) for EPM is well above the current ROIC(2.97%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.62% | ||
| ROE | -1.35% | ||
| ROIC | 2.97% |
ROA(3y)17.31%
ROA(5y)7.39%
ROE(3y)28.79%
ROE(5y)12.86%
ROIC(3y)20.97%
ROIC(5y)14.37%
1.3 Margins
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of EPM has declined.
With a Operating Margin value of 6.09%, EPM is not doing good in the industry: 66.67% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of EPM has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 42.56%, EPM is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.83% of the companies in the same industry.
EPM's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 42.56% |
OM growth 3Y-10.46%
OM growth 5Y-25.75%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-33.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.86%
GM growth 5Y-8.15%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
EPM has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, EPM has more shares outstanding
EPM has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, EPM has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
EPM has an Altman-Z score of 1.96. This is not the best score and indicates that EPM is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
EPM's Altman-Z score of 1.96 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. EPM outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of EPM is 1.43, which is an excellent value as it means it would take EPM, only 1.43 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of EPM (1.43) is better than 86.39% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.50 indicates that EPM is not too dependend on debt financing.
EPM has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.50) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.5 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC10.16%
2.3 Liquidity
EPM has a Current Ratio of 0.88. This is a bad value and indicates that EPM is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.88, EPM is not doing good in the industry: 65.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
EPM has a Quick Ratio of 0.88. This is a bad value and indicates that EPM is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.88, EPM perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 44.60% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
EPM shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -137.50%.
Measured over the past years, EPM shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -22.88% on average per year.
EPM shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 3.79%.
Measured over the past years, EPM shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.71% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-137.5%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y-22.88%
EPS Q2Q%-800%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.79%
Revenue growth 3Y37.96%
Revenue growth 5Y14.71%
Sales Q2Q%-2.02%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, EPM will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.05% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.15% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-2.11%
Revenue Next 2Y1.15%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for EPM. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.78 indicates a quite expensive valuation of EPM.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, EPM is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 64.32% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.15. EPM is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.78 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of EPM is on the same level as its industry peers.
84.04% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than EPM, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.89 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as EPM's earnings are expected to grow with 16.05% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
EPM has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.64%, which is a nice return.
EPM's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 6.82. EPM pays more dividend than 88.26% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, EPM pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.64% |
5.2 History
The dividend of EPM has a limited annual growth rate of 3.76%.
EPM has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
EPM has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.76%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
EPM has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
EPM's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-1681.55%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
4.49
-0.02 (-0.44%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners56.21%
Inst Owner Change0.6%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change1.3%
Market Cap154.05M
Analysts80
Price Target6.76 (50.56%)
Short Float %3.65%
Short Ratio6
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.64% |
Yearly Dividend0.48
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.76%
DP-1681.55%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-489.55%
Min EPS beat(2)-494.06%
Max EPS beat(2)-485.04%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-242.01%
Min EPS beat(4)-494.06%
Max EPS beat(4)48.51%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-154.71%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-89.83%
EPS beat(16)5
Avg EPS beat(16)-70.49%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.13%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.4%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.13%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.83%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.39%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.52%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-10.17%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-103.32%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-102.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-6.32%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.59%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.78 | ||
| P/S | 1.79 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.2 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.04 | ||
| P/B | 2.15 | ||
| P/tB | 2.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.89 |
EPS(TTM)-0.03
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY3.6%
FCF(TTM)0.72
FCFY16.12%
OCF(TTM)0.89
OCFY19.85%
SpS2.51
BVpS2.09
TBVpS2.09
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.62% | ||
| ROE | -1.35% | ||
| ROCE | 3.91% | ||
| ROIC | 2.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.1% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.1% | ||
| OM | 6.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 42.56% | ||
| FCFM | 28.9% |
ROA(3y)17.31%
ROA(5y)7.39%
ROE(3y)28.79%
ROE(5y)12.86%
ROIC(3y)20.97%
ROIC(5y)14.37%
ROICexc(3y)22.81%
ROICexc(5y)15.8%
ROICexgc(3y)22.81%
ROICexgc(5y)15.8%
ROCE(3y)27.6%
ROCE(5y)18.91%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.57%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-27.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y-27.82%
OM growth 3Y-10.46%
OM growth 5Y-25.75%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-33.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.86%
GM growth 5Y-8.15%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.55
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.5 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.43 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.33 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 26.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.68% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 114.49% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
F-Score5
WACC10.16%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)325.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)306.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)37.87%
Cap/Sales(5y)41.68%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-137.5%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y-22.88%
EPS Q2Q%-800%
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.79%
Revenue growth 3Y37.96%
Revenue growth 5Y14.71%
Sales Q2Q%-2.02%
Revenue Next Year-2.11%
Revenue Next 2Y1.15%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-9.09%
EBIT growth 3Y23.53%
EBIT growth 5Y-14.83%
EBIT Next Year221.53%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-42.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-59.49%
OCF growth 3Y68.72%
OCF growth 5Y-1.13%