DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:DLTR - US2567461080 - Common Stock
95.58 USD
+2.99 (+3.23%)
103 USD
+7.42 (+7.76%)
Taking everything into account, DLTR scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. DLTR was compared to 39 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. DLTR has an average financial health and profitability rating. DLTR has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
DLTR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year DLTR had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: DLTR reported negative net income in multiple years.
DLTR had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
DLTR has a worse Return On Assets (-21.90%) than 87.18% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a worse Return On Equity (-81.30%) than 89.74% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 11.76%, DLTR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 82.05% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for DLTR is in line with the industry average of 8.75%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.12%) for DLTR is below the current ROIC(11.76%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -21.9% | ||
| ROE | -81.3% | ||
| ROIC | 11.76% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 9.44%, DLTR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.87% of the companies in the same industry.
DLTR's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
DLTR has a better Gross Margin (37.52%) than 82.05% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of DLTR has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.44% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.52% |
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), DLTR is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for DLTR has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for DLTR has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
DLTR has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.23 indicates that DLTR is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
DLTR has a worse Altman-Z score (3.23) than 64.10% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.35. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
DLTR has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.35) than 84.62% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.76 indicates that DLTR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
DLTR has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.76) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for DLTR, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.76 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.23 |
ROIC/WACC1.5
WACC7.83%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.04 indicates that DLTR should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of DLTR (1.04) is worse than 61.54% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a Quick Ratio of 1.04. This is a bad value and indicates that DLTR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
DLTR's Quick ratio of 0.27 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR is outperformed by 79.49% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.27 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for DLTR have decreased strongly by -10.76% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 2.24% on average over the past years.
DLTR shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -45.82%.
Measured over the past years, DLTR shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -5.73% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.76%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-14.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-45.82%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-38.06%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, DLTR will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.27% on average per year.
DLTR is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -5.26% yearly.
EPS Next Y6.16%
EPS Next 2Y10.37%
EPS Next 3Y11.46%
EPS Next 5Y8.27%
Revenue Next Year-37.18%
Revenue Next 2Y-18.29%
Revenue Next 3Y-10.94%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.26%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.89, the valuation of DLTR can be described as rather expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of DLTR indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: DLTR is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
DLTR's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.49.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.72, the valuation of DLTR can be described as correct.
DLTR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. DLTR is cheaper than 79.49% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of DLTR to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.99), we can say DLTR is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.72 |
4.2 Price Multiples
DLTR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
84.62% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than DLTR, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.94 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates DLTR does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of DLTR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)3.07
PEG (5Y)8.41
EPS Next 2Y10.37%
EPS Next 3Y11.46%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
DLTR does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
95.58
+2.99 (+3.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.24%
Inst Owner Change0.44%
Ins Owners0.11%
Ins Owner Change0.27%
Market Cap19.50B
Analysts70.59
Price Target115.62 (20.97%)
Short Float %8.45%
Short Ratio4.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)19.8%
Min EPS beat(2)2.81%
Max EPS beat(2)36.79%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)9.17%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.74%
Max EPS beat(4)36.79%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.02%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.99%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)0.78%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.08%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.27%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.56%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.24%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.33%
PT rev (1m)2.78%
PT rev (3m)20.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-16.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.54%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.72 | ||
| P/S | 1.16 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.86 | ||
| P/B | 5.41 | ||
| P/tB | 6.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.94 |
EPS(TTM)5.06
EY5.29%
EPS(NY)6.49
Fwd EY6.79%
FCF(TTM)9.92
FCFY10.38%
OCF(TTM)13.94
OCFY14.58%
SpS82.26
BVpS17.67
TBVpS15.6
PEG (NY)3.07
PEG (5Y)8.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -21.9% | ||
| ROE | -81.3% | ||
| ROCE | 16% | ||
| ROIC | 11.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.59% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.17% | ||
| OM | 9.44% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.52% | ||
| FCFM | 12.06% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
ROICexc(3y)10.93%
ROICexc(5y)10.07%
ROICexgc(3y)13.1%
ROICexgc(5y)13.01%
ROCE(3y)13.36%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y6.23%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.09%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.96%
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.76 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.4 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 227.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 11.56 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 146.3% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.27 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.23 |
F-Score5
WACC7.83%
ROIC/WACC1.5
Cap/Depr(3y)236.14%
Cap/Depr(5y)196.44%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.27%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.76%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-14.93%
EPS Next Y6.16%
EPS Next 2Y10.37%
EPS Next 3Y11.46%
EPS Next 5Y8.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-45.82%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-38.06%
Revenue Next Year-37.18%
Revenue Next 2Y-18.29%
Revenue Next 3Y-10.94%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.26%
EBIT growth 1Y-23%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.34%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.01%
EBIT Next Year38.76%
EBIT Next 3Y17.98%
EBIT Next 5Y12.03%
FCF growth 1Y291.75%
FCF growth 3Y56.35%
FCF growth 5Y13.4%
OCF growth 1Y40.85%
OCF growth 3Y25.98%
OCF growth 5Y8.89%