DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:DLTR - Nasdaq - US2567461080 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, DLTR scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. DLTR was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. DLTR has an average financial health and profitability rating. DLTR has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
DLTR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year DLTR had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years DLTR reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years DLTR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
DLTR's Return On Assets of -16.33% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR is outperformed by 87.50% of its industry peers.
DLTR's Return On Equity of -76.49% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR is outperformed by 85.00% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 11.72%, DLTR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for DLTR is in line with the industry average of 8.23%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (11.72%) for DLTR is above the 3 year average (10.12%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -16.33% | ||
| ROE | -76.49% | ||
| ROIC | 11.72% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
1.3 Margins
DLTR's Operating Margin of 7.94% is amongst the best of the industry. DLTR outperforms 95.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of DLTR has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of DLTR (32.14%) is better than 82.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of DLTR has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 32.14% |
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), DLTR is creating some value.
DLTR has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, DLTR has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for DLTR is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.55 indicates that DLTR is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.55, DLTR is doing worse than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of DLTR is 2.18, which is a good value as it means it would take DLTR, 2.18 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of DLTR (2.18) is better than 77.50% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62. This is a neutral value indicating DLTR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
DLTR has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.62) which is in line with its industry peers.
Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for DLTR, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.55 |
ROIC/WACC1.45
WACC8.08%
2.3 Liquidity
DLTR has a Current Ratio of 1.04. This is a normal value and indicates that DLTR is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of DLTR (1.04) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
DLTR has a Quick Ratio of 1.04. This is a bad value and indicates that DLTR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.72, DLTR is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
DLTR shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -12.69%.
Measured over the past 5 years, DLTR shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 2.24% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, DLTR shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -36.64% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, DLTR shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -5.73% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.69%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-11.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-36.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-39.21%
3.2 Future
DLTR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.01% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, DLTR will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -5.28% on average per year.
EPS Next Y3.17%
EPS Next 2Y8.79%
EPS Next 3Y10.31%
EPS Next 5Y8.01%
Revenue Next Year-38.07%
Revenue Next 2Y-18.99%
Revenue Next 3Y-11.49%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.28%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 19.19, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of DLTR.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of DLTR is on the same level as its industry peers.
DLTR's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.15.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.70, which indicates a correct valuation of DLTR.
DLTR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. DLTR is cheaper than 77.50% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.60. DLTR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
DLTR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, DLTR is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 80.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.62 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of DLTR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)6.06
PEG (5Y)8.55
EPS Next 2Y8.79%
EPS Next 3Y10.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
DLTR does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
99.04
+0.34 (+0.34%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners108.64%
Inst Owner Change2.15%
Ins Owners0.12%
Ins Owner Change7.11%
Market Cap20.81B
Analysts71.52
Price Target96.08 (-2.99%)
Short Float %6.74%
Short Ratio3.31
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.47%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.74%
Max EPS beat(2)2.81%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-9.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-36.9%
Max EPS beat(4)2.81%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.28%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-4.15%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-0.25%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.67%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.27%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.27%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.55%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.42%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.55%
PT rev (1m)11.87%
PT rev (3m)13.59%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-38.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-55.22%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.65%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.56%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-41.88%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.75%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-40.29%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.7 | ||
| P/S | 1.06 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.23 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.86 | ||
| P/B | 5.33 | ||
| P/tB | 5.98 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.62 |
EPS(TTM)5.16
EY5.21%
EPS(NY)6.31
Fwd EY6.37%
FCF(TTM)7.49
FCFY7.56%
OCF(TTM)12.61
OCFY12.73%
SpS93.2
BVpS18.58
TBVpS16.57
PEG (NY)6.06
PEG (5Y)8.55
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -16.33% | ||
| ROE | -76.49% | ||
| ROCE | 15.47% | ||
| ROIC | 11.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.66% | ||
| OM | 7.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 32.14% | ||
| FCFM | 8.03% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
ROICexc(3y)10.93%
ROICexc(5y)10.07%
ROICexgc(3y)13.1%
ROICexgc(5y)13.01%
ROCE(3y)13.36%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y6.23%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.09%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.96%
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.21 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 242.43% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.5% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 11.71 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 132.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.55 |
F-Score5
WACC8.08%
ROIC/WACC1.45
Cap/Depr(3y)236.14%
Cap/Depr(5y)196.44%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.27%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.69%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-11.89%
EPS Next Y3.17%
EPS Next 2Y8.79%
EPS Next 3Y10.31%
EPS Next 5Y8.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-36.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-39.21%
Revenue Next Year-38.07%
Revenue Next 2Y-18.99%
Revenue Next 3Y-11.49%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.28%
EBIT growth 1Y-27.35%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.34%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.01%
EBIT Next Year36.43%
EBIT Next 3Y17.79%
EBIT Next 5Y11.74%
FCF growth 1Y229.03%
FCF growth 3Y56.35%
FCF growth 5Y13.4%
OCF growth 1Y44.92%
OCF growth 3Y25.98%
OCF growth 5Y8.89%