DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:DLTR - Nasdaq - US2567461080 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, DLTR scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. DLTR was compared to 41 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. DLTR has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. DLTR is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
DLTR had positive earnings in the past year.
DLTR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years DLTR reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years DLTR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
DLTR's Return On Assets of -16.33% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR is outperformed by 85.37% of its industry peers.
DLTR's Return On Equity of -76.49% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR is outperformed by 85.37% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 11.72%, DLTR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.37% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for DLTR is above the industry average of 7.94%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (11.72%) for DLTR is above the 3 year average (10.12%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -16.33% | ||
| ROE | -76.49% | ||
| ROIC | 11.72% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
1.3 Margins
DLTR's Operating Margin of 7.94% is amongst the best of the industry. DLTR outperforms 95.12% of its industry peers.
DLTR's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
DLTR's Gross Margin of 32.14% is amongst the best of the industry. DLTR outperforms 82.93% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of DLTR has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 32.14% |
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
DLTR has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for DLTR has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
DLTR has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, DLTR has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
DLTR has an Altman-Z score of 2.50. This is not the best score and indicates that DLTR is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
DLTR has a worse Altman-Z score (2.50) than 68.29% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of DLTR is 2.18, which is a good value as it means it would take DLTR, 2.18 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
DLTR has a better Debt to FCF ratio (2.18) than 78.05% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62. This is a neutral value indicating DLTR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
DLTR has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.62) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for DLTR, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.5 |
ROIC/WACC0.83
WACC14.16%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.04 indicates that DLTR should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
DLTR has a Current ratio (1.04) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
DLTR has a Quick Ratio of 1.04. This is a bad value and indicates that DLTR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
DLTR has a Quick ratio (0.72) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
DLTR shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -12.69%.
Measured over the past 5 years, DLTR shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 2.24% on average per year.
DLTR shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -36.64%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -5.73% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.69%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-11.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-36.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-39.21%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, DLTR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.98% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, DLTR will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -5.41% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-1.42%
EPS Next 2Y6.49%
EPS Next 3Y8.59%
EPS Next 5Y7.98%
Revenue Next Year-38.5%
Revenue Next 2Y-19.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-11.83%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 18.19, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of DLTR.
DLTR's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. DLTR is cheaper than 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
DLTR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.53, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.53, which indicates a correct valuation of DLTR.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of DLTR indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: DLTR is cheaper than 78.05% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of DLTR to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.27), we can say DLTR is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
DLTR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, DLTR is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.93% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.54 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.07 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
DLTR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)8.1
EPS Next 2Y6.49%
EPS Next 3Y8.59%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
DLTR does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
93.85
-0.65 (-0.69%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners103.86%
Inst Owner Change2.15%
Ins Owners0.08%
Ins Owner Change7.88%
Market Cap19.72B
Analysts71.52
Price Target89.29 (-4.86%)
Short Float %7.01%
Short Ratio2.59
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.47%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.74%
Max EPS beat(2)2.81%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-9.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-36.9%
Max EPS beat(4)2.81%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.28%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-4.15%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-0.25%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.67%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.27%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.27%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.55%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.42%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.55%
PT rev (1m)4.25%
PT rev (3m)4.45%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.23%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.62%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.11%
EPS NY rev (3m)-15.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.22%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-42.31%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-40.68%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.53 | ||
| P/S | 1.01 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.54 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.44 | ||
| P/B | 5.05 | ||
| P/tB | 5.66 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.07 |
EPS(TTM)5.16
EY5.5%
EPS(NY)6.04
Fwd EY6.44%
FCF(TTM)7.49
FCFY7.98%
OCF(TTM)12.61
OCFY13.43%
SpS93.2
BVpS18.58
TBVpS16.57
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)8.1
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -16.33% | ||
| ROE | -76.49% | ||
| ROCE | 15.47% | ||
| ROIC | 11.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.66% | ||
| OM | 7.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 32.14% | ||
| FCFM | 8.03% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
ROICexc(3y)10.93%
ROICexc(5y)10.07%
ROICexgc(3y)13.1%
ROICexgc(5y)13.01%
ROCE(3y)13.36%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y6.23%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.09%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.96%
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.21 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 242.43% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.5% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 11.71 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 132.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.5 |
F-Score5
WACC14.16%
ROIC/WACC0.83
Cap/Depr(3y)236.14%
Cap/Depr(5y)196.44%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.27%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.69%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-11.89%
EPS Next Y-1.42%
EPS Next 2Y6.49%
EPS Next 3Y8.59%
EPS Next 5Y7.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-36.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-39.21%
Revenue Next Year-38.5%
Revenue Next 2Y-19.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-11.83%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-27.35%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.34%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.01%
EBIT Next Year36.43%
EBIT Next 3Y17.46%
EBIT Next 5Y12.22%
FCF growth 1Y229.03%
FCF growth 3Y56.35%
FCF growth 5Y13.4%
OCF growth 1Y44.92%
OCF growth 3Y25.98%
OCF growth 5Y8.89%