AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ATSG - US00922R1059 - Common Stock
22.48 USD
-0.01 (-0.04%)
22.481 USD
0 (0%)
ATSG gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ATSG is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ATSG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ATSG was profitable.
In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ATSG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of ATSG (0.70%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ATSG has a Return On Equity (1.85%) which is in line with its industry peers.
ATSG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.61%) which is in line with its industry peers.
ATSG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.14%. This is significantly below the industry average of 12.49%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
ATSG has a Profit Margin of 1.40%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 6.94%, ATSG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 52.60%, ATSG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ATSG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
ATSG has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ATSG has an Altman-Z score of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.21, ATSG is doing worse than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG is 7.67, which is on the high side as it means it would take ATSG, 7.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ATSG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (7.67) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the high side and indicates that ATSG has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of ATSG (1.04) is worse than 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
2.3 Liquidity
ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ATSG has a worse Current ratio (0.98) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.84, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 73.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ATSG have decreased strongly by -38.46% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -10.24% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.20% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
ATSG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 32.30% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55, ATSG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as ATSG.
ATSG is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.14, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, the valuation of ATSG can be described as rather expensive.
ATSG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ATSG is cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.80.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
91.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ATSG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ATSG!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.48
-0.01 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change-96.54%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change-123.19%
Market Cap1.48B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.78 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%