AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ATSG - Nasdaq - US00922R1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
ATSG gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ATSG has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. ATSG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ATSG was profitable.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ATSG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ATSG has a Return On Assets (0.70%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of ATSG (1.85%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 2.61%, ATSG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 47.83% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.14%. This is significantly below the industry average of 12.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
ATSG's Profit Margin of 1.40% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 6.94%, ATSG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 52.60%, ATSG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ATSG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
ATSG has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ATSG has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ATSG has an Altman-Z score of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ATSG's Altman-Z score of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 60.87% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG (7.67) is better than 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the high side and indicates that ATSG has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.04, ATSG is doing worse than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
2.3 Liquidity
ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.98, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 69.57% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ATSG has a Quick Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.84, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 73.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ATSG have decreased strongly by -38.46% in the last year.
The earnings per share for ATSG have been decreasing by -10.24% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.20% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 32.30% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55 indicates a quite expensive valuation of ATSG.
ATSG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ATSG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.93), we can say ATSG is valued inline with the index average.
ATSG is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11.
65.22% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ATSG to the average of the S&P500 Index (37.78), we can say ATSG is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
91.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ATSG!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.48
-0.01 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change-0.43%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change-123.19%
Market Cap1.48B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.78 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%