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AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:ATSG - Nasdaq - US00922R1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

22.48  -0.01 (-0.04%)

After market: 22.481 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

3

Taking everything into account, ATSG scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ATSG was compared to 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ATSG is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ATSG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

ATSG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
ATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of ATSG (0.70%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of ATSG (1.85%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ATSG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.61%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 12.72%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

ATSG's Profit Margin of 1.40% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 6.94%, ATSG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
ATSG has a Gross Margin of 52.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ATSG outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
ATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60

1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

ATSG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
ATSG has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
ATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
ATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.21, ATSG is doing worse than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ATSG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (7.67) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ATSG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.04) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Altman-Z 1.21
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
ATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.98, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 69.57% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.84, ATSG is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
ATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for ATSG have decreased strongly by -38.46% in the last year.
ATSG shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -10.24% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.20% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%

3.2 Future

ATSG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 32.30% yearly.
ATSG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
ATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
ATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5 2

5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55, ATSG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
ATSG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
ATSG is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, the valuation of ATSG can be described as rather expensive.
ATSG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ATSG is cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.17. ATSG is around the same levels.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
ATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

ATSG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ATSG is cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.34
EV/EBITDA 5.38
ATSG Per share dataATSG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

ATSG does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP

NASDAQ:ATSG (4/10/2025, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 22.481 0 (0%)

22.48

-0.01 (-0.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)03-03 2025-03-03/amc
Earnings (Next)05-01 2025-05-01/amc
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change15.94%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change-112.08%
Market Cap1.48B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
P/S 0.75
P/FCF 7.34
P/OCF 2.78
P/B 1
P/tB 1.46
EV/EBITDA 5.38
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROCE 3.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROICexc 2.66%
ROICexgc 3.07%
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
FCFM 10.29%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Debt/EBITDA 2.81
Cap/Depr 79.64%
Cap/Sales 16.87%
Interest Coverage 1.65
Cash Conversion 96.58%
Profit Quality 735.62%
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
Altman-Z 1.21
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%