22.48 USD
-0.01 (-0.04%)
22.481 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to ATSG. ATSG was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ATSG while its profitability can be described as average. ATSG has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ATSG was profitable.
In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
ATSG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.70%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG has a Return On Equity (1.85%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ATSG (2.61%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 12.34%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
ATSG has a Profit Margin of 1.40%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ATSG has a Operating Margin of 6.94%. This is in the better half of the industry: ATSG outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
ATSG has a Gross Margin of 52.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ATSG outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ATSG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for ATSG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.21, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 60.87% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG is 7.67, which is on the high side as it means it would take ATSG, 7.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG (7.67) is better than 69.57% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of ATSG (1.04) is worse than 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.98 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.98, ATSG is doing worse than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ATSG (0.84) is worse than 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.46%.
The earnings per share for ATSG have been decreasing by -10.24% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.20% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 32.30% on average per year.
ATSG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55, the valuation of ATSG can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ATSG is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.55. ATSG is around the same levels.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, the valuation of ATSG can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ATSG is valued a bit cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.78, ATSG is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ATSG is valued cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ATSG!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.48
-0.01 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change-79.69%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.48B
Revenue(TTM)1.96B
Net Income(TTM)27.43M
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.78 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP / ATSG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ATSG.
What is the valuation status for ATSG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ATSG stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is 25.55 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.
What is the expected EPS growth for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is expected to grow by 21.01% in the next year.