AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ATSG - Nasdaq - US00922R1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
ATSG gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ATSG is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ATSG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ATSG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
ATSG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ATSG has a Return On Assets of 0.70%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Return On Equity of 1.85%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.61%) which is in line with its industry peers.
ATSG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.14%. This is significantly below the industry average of 12.73%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 1.40%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 6.94%, ATSG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 52.60%, ATSG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ATSG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ATSG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ATSG has a worse Altman-Z score (1.21) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.67, ATSG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the high side and indicates that ATSG has dependencies on debt financing.
ATSG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.04. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
2.3 Liquidity
ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ATSG has a worse Current ratio (0.98) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Quick Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ATSG has a worse Quick ratio (0.84) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ATSG have decreased strongly by -38.46% in the last year.
ATSG shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -10.24% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the past year.
ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.20% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 32.30% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55, the valuation of ATSG can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ATSG is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.69, ATSG is valued at the same level.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11 indicates a rather expensive valuation of ATSG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ATSG is valued a bit cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ATSG indicates a rather cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ATSG does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.48
-0.01 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change15.94%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change-124.2%
Market Cap1.48B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.78 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%