AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:ATSG • US00922R1059

Current stock price

22.48 USD
-0.01 (-0.04%)
At close:
22.481 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This ATSG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. ATSG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • ATSG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
  • ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
ATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

  • ATSG's Return On Assets of 0.70% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Equity value of 1.85%, ATSG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ATSG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.61%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 11.93%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • ATSG's Profit Margin of 1.40% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
  • ATSG has a Operating Margin of 6.94%. This is in the better half of the industry: ATSG outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
  • The Gross Margin of ATSG (52.60%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • ATSG's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
ATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60

More info and screens

ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

1

2. ATSG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ATSG is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
  • The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
ATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
ATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • ATSG's Altman-Z score of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 60.87% of its industry peers.
  • ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • ATSG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is in the better half of the industry: ATSG outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the high side and indicates that ATSG has dependencies on debt financing.
  • ATSG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.04) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Altman-Z 1.21
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
ATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ATSG has a worse Current ratio (0.98) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ATSG has a Quick ratio of 0.84. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
ATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M

More info and screens

WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. ATSG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.46%.
  • ATSG shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -10.24% yearly.
  • ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.25%.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.20% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 32.30% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
ATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
ATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5 2

More info and screens

Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

5

4. ATSG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55 indicates a quite expensive valuation of ATSG.
  • ATSG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • ATSG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, ATSG is valued on the expensive side.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ATSG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • ATSG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 23.68.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
ATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ATSG is valued cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ATSG is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.34
EV/EBITDA 5.38
ATSG Per share dataATSG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ATSG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ATSG does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

More info and screens

Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

ATSG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP

NASDAQ:ATSG (4/10/2025, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 22.481 0 (0%)

22.48

-0.01 (-0.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)03-03
Earnings (Next)05-01
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.48B
Revenue(TTM)1.96B
Net Income(TTM)27.43M
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
P/S 0.75
P/FCF 7.34
P/OCF 2.78
P/B 1
P/tB 1.46
EV/EBITDA 5.38
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROCE 3.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROICexc 2.66%
ROICexgc 3.07%
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
FCFM 10.29%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Debt/EBITDA 2.81
Cap/Depr 79.64%
Cap/Sales 16.87%
Interest Coverage 1.65
Cash Conversion 96.58%
Profit Quality 735.62%
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
Altman-Z 1.21
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP / ATSG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ATSG.


What is the valuation status of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is expected to grow by 21.01% in the next year.