ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ASTH - Nasdaq - US03763A2078 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to ASTH. ASTH was compared to 102 industry peers in the Health Care Providers & Services industry. ASTH has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. ASTH is not overvalued while it is showing excellent growth. This is an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ASTH was profitable.
In the past year ASTH had a positive cash flow from operations.
ASTH had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years ASTH had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 2.63%, ASTH is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.78% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of 4.70%, ASTH perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.80% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ASTH (5.19%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ASTH had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.07%. This is below the industry average of 9.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.63% | ||
| ROE | 4.7% | ||
| ROIC | 5.19% |
ROA(3y)4.79%
ROA(5y)5.42%
ROE(3y)8.09%
ROE(5y)10.17%
ROIC(3y)7.07%
ROIC(5y)7.37%
1.3 Margins
ASTH has a Profit Margin (1.56%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ASTH has declined.
ASTH has a Operating Margin (3.55%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ASTH's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ASTH has a Gross Margin of 11.94%. This is in the lower half of the industry: ASTH underperforms 71.57% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ASTH has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.56% | ||
| GM | 11.94% |
OM growth 3Y-29.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-38.02%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.57%
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ASTH has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
ASTH has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
ASTH has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.66 indicates that ASTH is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of ASTH (3.66) is better than 72.55% of its industry peers.
ASTH has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.01. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ASTH would need 8.01 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ASTH's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.01 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ASTH outperforms 55.88% of its industry peers.
ASTH has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.54. This is a neutral value indicating ASTH is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
ASTH has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.54. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ASTH outperforms 59.80% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.54 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.01 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.66 |
ROIC/WACC0.63
WACC8.27%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.70 indicates that ASTH should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.70, ASTH is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.80% of the companies in the same industry.
ASTH has a Quick Ratio of 1.70. This is a normal value and indicates that ASTH is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ASTH has a better Quick ratio (1.70) than 63.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.7 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.7 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ASTH shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -45.45%.
Measured over the past years, ASTH shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 19.19% on average per year.
ASTH shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 54.81%.
ASTH shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 38.01% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-45.45%
EPS 3Y-17.24%
EPS 5Y19.19%
EPS Q2Q%-54.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)54.81%
Revenue growth 3Y38.01%
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%53.43%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ASTH will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 31.87% on average per year.
ASTH is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 16.54% yearly.
EPS Next Y40.34%
EPS Next 2Y35.27%
EPS Next 3Y41.54%
EPS Next 5Y31.87%
Revenue Next Year35.44%
Revenue Next 2Y28.34%
Revenue Next 3Y25.23%
Revenue Next 5Y16.54%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ASTH is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 33.69.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ASTH is on the same level as its industry peers.
ASTH is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.34, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.90, which indicates a correct valuation of ASTH.
75.49% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ASTH, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.19. ASTH is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.9 |
4.2 Price Multiples
60.78% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ASTH, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ASTH is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 61.76% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.24 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ASTH's earnings are expected to grow with 41.54% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.84
PEG (5Y)1.76
EPS Next 2Y35.27%
EPS Next 3Y41.54%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ASTH does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
24.26
-0.4 (-1.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupHealth Care Equipment & Services
GICS IndustryHealth Care Providers & Services
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners53.66%
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins Owners9.71%
Ins Owner Change-10.21%
Market Cap1.21B
Analysts83.33
Price Target51.31 (111.5%)
Short Float %3.7%
Short Ratio5.25
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP26.84%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-134.77%
Min EPS beat(2)-225.16%
Max EPS beat(2)-44.39%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-66.81%
Min EPS beat(4)-225.16%
Max EPS beat(4)1.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)-18.15%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.53%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)7.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.56%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.66%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.16%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.79%
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)-0.4%
PT rev (3m)-6.27%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.24%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.66%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.02%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.72%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.22%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.9 | ||
| P/S | 0.54 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.24 | ||
| P/OCF | 19.27 | ||
| P/B | 1.63 | ||
| P/tB | 5.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.47 |
EPS(TTM)0.72
EY2.97%
EPS(NY)1.63
Fwd EY6.71%
FCF(TTM)1.04
FCFY4.3%
OCF(TTM)1.26
OCFY5.19%
SpS45.07
BVpS14.93
TBVpS4.35
PEG (NY)0.84
PEG (5Y)1.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.63% | ||
| ROE | 4.7% | ||
| ROCE | 8.23% | ||
| ROIC | 5.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.1% | ||
| ROICexgc | 27.85% | ||
| OM | 3.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.56% | ||
| GM | 11.94% | ||
| FCFM | 2.32% |
ROA(3y)4.79%
ROA(5y)5.42%
ROE(3y)8.09%
ROE(5y)10.17%
ROIC(3y)7.07%
ROIC(5y)7.37%
ROICexc(3y)11.13%
ROICexc(5y)11.73%
ROICexgc(3y)50.18%
ROICexgc(5y)49.73%
ROCE(3y)11.21%
ROCE(5y)11.68%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-13.47%
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.27%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-29.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-38.02%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.57%
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.69
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.54 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.01 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 36.16% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.48% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.55 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.41% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.88% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.7 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.7 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.66 |
F-Score5
WACC8.27%
ROIC/WACC0.63
Cap/Depr(3y)106.76%
Cap/Depr(5y)87.27%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.42%
Profit Quality(3y)99.59%
Profit Quality(5y)98.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-45.45%
EPS 3Y-17.24%
EPS 5Y19.19%
EPS Q2Q%-54.84%
EPS Next Y40.34%
EPS Next 2Y35.27%
EPS Next 3Y41.54%
EPS Next 5Y31.87%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)54.81%
Revenue growth 3Y38.01%
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%53.43%
Revenue Next Year35.44%
Revenue Next 2Y28.34%
Revenue Next 3Y25.23%
Revenue Next 5Y16.54%
EBIT growth 1Y-13.63%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.09%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year83.9%
EBIT Next 3Y44.03%
EBIT Next 5Y30.92%
FCF growth 1Y11.26%
FCF growth 3Y-4.75%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-23.49%
OCF growth 3Y-9.46%
OCF growth 5YN/A