ANTERO RESOURCES CORP (AR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US03674X1063 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AR scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AR was compared to 213 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. AR has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AR has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AR was profitable.
In the past year AR had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AR reported negative net income in multiple years.
AR had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AR has a Return On Assets (1.75%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AR has a Return On Equity (3.17%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AR has a worse Return On Invested Capital (1.82%) than 71.83% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AR is significantly below the industry average of 25.88%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.38%) for AR is well above the current ROIC(1.82%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.17% | ||
| ROIC | 1.82% |
ROA(3y)5.12%
ROA(5y)0.87%
ROE(3y)10.6%
ROE(5y)1.31%
ROIC(3y)7.38%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AR (5.02%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AR's Operating Margin of 5.62% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AR is outperformed by 67.61% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AR has declined.
The Gross Margin of AR (70.17%) is better than 78.40% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AR has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.62% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.02% | ||
| GM | 70.17% |
OM growth 3Y-21.28%
OM growth 5Y-30.85%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.22%
GM growth 5Y9.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AR is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AR has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AR has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AR is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.72, we must say that AR is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 1.72, AR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 62.44% of the companies in the same industry.
AR has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.74. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as AR would need 3.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 3.74, AR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.71% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates that AR is not too dependend on debt financing.
AR has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.18) than 69.48% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
ROIC/WACC0.17
WACC10.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.39 indicates that AR may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AR has a Current ratio of 0.39. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AR underperforms 90.61% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.39 indicates that AR may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.39, AR is doing worse than 88.26% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AR shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 950.00%, which is quite impressive.
AR shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -37.61% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AR shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 3.64% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AR shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.38% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)950%
EPS 3Y-37.61%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%1014.29%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.17%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.38%
Sales Q2Q%21.62%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AR will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 39.44% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.21% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y844.29%
EPS Next 2Y242.34%
EPS Next 3Y121.27%
EPS Next 5Y39.44%
Revenue Next Year27.5%
Revenue Next 2Y16.18%
Revenue Next 3Y9.21%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 37.19 indicates a quite expensive valuation of AR.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AR is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 65.26% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
AR is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.91, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.80, the valuation of AR can be described as very reasonable.
AR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AR is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.85. AR is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AR is valued a bit more expensive than 61.97% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AR is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 35.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.97 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AR's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AR's earnings are expected to grow with 121.27% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y242.34%
EPS Next 3Y121.27%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AR does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
39.05
-0.06 (-0.15%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners85.48%
Inst Owner Change2.42%
Ins Owners5.79%
Ins Owner Change0.58%
Market Cap12.14B
Analysts80
Price Target45.08 (15.44%)
Short Float %4.53%
Short Ratio2.34
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)36.63%
Min EPS beat(2)-9.71%
Max EPS beat(2)82.98%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-24.15%
Min EPS beat(4)-165.08%
Max EPS beat(4)82.98%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)12.96%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)6.18%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.11%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.33%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.41%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.25%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.41%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.21%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.23%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)4.26%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.88%
PT rev (1m)-3.39%
PT rev (3m)3.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-16.78%
EPS NQ rev (3m)12%
EPS NY rev (1m)-10.63%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.01%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.27%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-4.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.75%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 | ||
| P/S | 2.67 | ||
| P/FCF | 35.2 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.61 | ||
| P/B | 1.68 | ||
| P/tB | 1.68 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.97 |
EPS(TTM)1.05
EY2.69%
EPS(NY)3.98
Fwd EY10.2%
FCF(TTM)1.11
FCFY2.84%
OCF(TTM)3.36
OCFY8.61%
SpS14.65
BVpS23.21
TBVpS23.21
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.17% | ||
| ROCE | 2.21% | ||
| ROIC | 1.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.82% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.82% | ||
| OM | 5.62% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.02% | ||
| GM | 70.17% | ||
| FCFM | 7.57% |
ROA(3y)5.12%
ROA(5y)0.87%
ROE(3y)10.6%
ROE(5y)1.31%
ROIC(3y)7.38%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.38%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.38%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.96%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-22.4%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-28.27%
ROICexc growth 3Y-22.4%
ROICexc growth 5Y-28.27%
OM growth 3Y-21.28%
OM growth 5Y-30.85%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.22%
GM growth 5Y9.09%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.35
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.24 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 89.89% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 15.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.23 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 100.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 150.73% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
F-Score7
WACC10.53%
ROIC/WACC0.17
Cap/Depr(3y)131.55%
Cap/Depr(5y)118.34%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.99%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.9%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)950%
EPS 3Y-37.61%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%1014.29%
EPS Next Y844.29%
EPS Next 2Y242.34%
EPS Next 3Y121.27%
EPS Next 5Y39.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.17%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.38%
Sales Q2Q%21.62%
Revenue Next Year27.5%
Revenue Next 2Y16.18%
Revenue Next 3Y9.21%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y1.27%
EBIT growth 3Y-22.98%
EBIT growth 5Y-31.11%
EBIT Next Year1217.17%
EBIT Next 3Y130.05%
EBIT Next 5Y54.19%
FCF growth 1Y-80.29%
FCF growth 3Y-48.03%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-63.05%
OCF growth 3Y-20.02%
OCF growth 5Y11.91%