ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AMBP - LU2369833749 - Common Stock
3.87 USD
-0.04 (-1.02%)
3.87 USD
0 (0%)
AMBP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. AMBP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AMBP has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
AMBP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBP reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AMBP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -0.15%, AMBP is doing worse than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 5.45%, AMBP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 40.91% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.21%. This is below the industry average of 7.62%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.21%) for AMBP is below the current ROIC(5.45%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.15% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 5.45% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
1.3 Margins
AMBP has a Operating Margin of 5.18%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AMBP underperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AMBP has declined.
AMBP has a worse Gross Margin (12.96%) than 90.91% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.18% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 12.96% |
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AMBP is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
Compared to 5 years ago, AMBP has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.20, we must say that AMBP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AMBP (-0.20) is worse than 95.45% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBP is 12.63, which is on the high side as it means it would take AMBP, 12.63 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AMBP has a Debt to FCF ratio (12.63) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.63 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.2 |
ROIC/WACC1.03
WACC5.28%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.13 indicates that AMBP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AMBP's Current ratio of 1.13 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 81.82% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.86 indicates that AMBP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.86, AMBP is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 31.25% over the past year.
The Revenue has grown by 10.34% in the past year. This is quite good.
AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.98% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.25%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%0%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.34%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%8.76%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.65% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, AMBP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.86% on average per year.
EPS Next Y10.82%
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.88%
Revenue Next 2Y7.32%
Revenue Next 3Y5.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 18.43 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AMBP.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AMBP.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.34. AMBP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.94, the valuation of AMBP can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AMBP is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.56. AMBP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AMBP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.27% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AMBP indicates a rather cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.62 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AMBP's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 16.65% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.7
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AMBP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.31%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.34, AMBP pays a better dividend. On top of this AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.31% |
5.2 History
AMBP has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
AMBP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-3300%
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
3.87
-0.04 (-1.02%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners18.39%
Inst Owner Change1.47%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.31B
Revenue(TTM)5.35B
Net Income(TTM)-8.00M
Analysts53.85
Price Target4.35 (12.4%)
Short Float %2.89%
Short Ratio3.08
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.31% |
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-3300%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)9.19%
Min EPS beat(2)7.02%
Max EPS beat(2)11.36%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)175.99%
Min EPS beat(4)7.02%
Max EPS beat(4)645.54%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)202.02%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)128.72%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)99.97%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.06%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.13%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)3.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)1.06%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.27%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.04%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.01%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-2.77%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.19%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.94 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.96 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.62 |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY5.43%
EPS(NY)0.24
Fwd EY6.27%
FCF(TTM)0.52
FCFY13.36%
OCF(TTM)0.78
OCFY20.15%
SpS8.94
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)1.7
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.15% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 6.9% | ||
| ROIC | 5.45% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10% | ||
| OM | 5.18% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 12.96% | ||
| FCFM | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.98
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.63 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.15 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 34.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.94% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.42 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 63.23% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.2 |
F-Score5
WACC5.28%
ROIC/WACC1.03
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.25%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%0%
EPS Next Y10.82%
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.34%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%8.76%
Revenue Next Year11.88%
Revenue Next 2Y7.32%
Revenue Next 3Y5.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y33.82%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year244.05%
EBIT Next 3Y55.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y2031.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y1.08%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%
ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA / AMBP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AMBP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AMBP.
What is the valuation status of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA?
ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the financial health of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) stock?
The financial health rating of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA sustainable?
The dividend rating of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -3300%.