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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AMBP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - LU2369833749 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

3.76  -0.12 (-3.09%)

After market: 3.81 +0.05 (+1.33%)

Fundamental Rating

3

Overall AMBP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AMBP against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AMBP have multiple concerns. AMBP has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
AMBP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBP reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AMBP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

AMBP's Return On Assets of -0.49% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 77.27% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AMBP (4.39%) is worse than 68.18% of its industry peers.
AMBP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.21%. This is below the industry average of 7.52%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.21%) for AMBP is below the current ROIC(4.39%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.49%
ROE N/A
ROIC 4.39%
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
AMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 -100 200 -200 -300

1.3 Margins

AMBP's Operating Margin of 4.54% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 72.73% of its industry peers.
AMBP's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 13.16%, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 90.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.54%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.16%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
AMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5 -5 10 15

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

AMBP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AMBP remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
AMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingAMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
AMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

AMBP has an Altman-Z score of -0.32. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AMBP's Altman-Z score of -0.32 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 81.82% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBP is 13.79, which is on the high side as it means it would take AMBP, 13.79 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AMBP has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.79) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.79
Altman-Z -0.32
ROIC/WACC0.84
WACC5.25%
AMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.13 indicates that AMBP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AMBP (1.13) is worse than 68.18% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.86 indicates that AMBP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AMBP has a Quick ratio (0.86) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.13
Quick Ratio 0.86
AMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

AMBP shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 50.00%, which is quite impressive.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.00% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.98% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%15.57%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 17.82% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.71% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y8.07%
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.25%
Revenue Next 3Y4.71%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
AMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.1 0.2 0.3

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 17.90, the valuation of AMBP can be described as rather expensive.
AMBP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBP to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.04), we can say AMBP is valued slightly cheaper.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.92 indicates a correct valuation of AMBP.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AMBP.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 37.64. AMBP is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.9
Fwd PE 14.92
AMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AMBP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 72.73% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AMBP's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AMBP is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.94
EV/EBITDA 8.36
AMBP Per share dataAMBP EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 -2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 17.82% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.31%, AMBP is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.02, AMBP pays a better dividend. On top of this AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.35.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 10.31%

5.2 History

AMBP has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
AMBP Yearly Dividends per shareAMBP Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

The earnings of AMBP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AMBP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-977.78%
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
AMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M

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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA

NYSE:AMBP (7/25/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 3.81 +0.05 (+1.33%)

3.76

-0.12 (-3.09%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)07-24 2025-07-24/bmo
Earnings (Next)10-22 2025-10-22/bmo
Inst Owners18.59%
Inst Owner Change-0.02%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.25B
Analysts53.33
Price Target4.42 (17.55%)
Short Float %2.91%
Short Ratio1.95
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 10.31%
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-977.78%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date05-05 2025-05-05 (0.1)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.82%
Min EPS beat(2)11.58%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)256.66%
Min EPS beat(4)11.58%
Max EPS beat(4)959.99%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)115.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)76.53%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.09%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.79%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.79%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.29%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.52%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)15.81%
PT rev (3m)23.44%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)90.58%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.48%
EPS NY rev (3m)21.7%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.96%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.2%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.9
Fwd PE 14.92
P/S 0.46
P/FCF 7.94
P/OCF 4.99
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 8.36
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY5.59%
EPS(NY)0.25
Fwd EY6.7%
FCF(TTM)0.47
FCFY12.59%
OCF(TTM)0.75
OCFY20.02%
SpS8.21
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)2.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.49%
ROE N/A
ROCE 5.56%
ROIC 4.39%
ROICexc 5.16%
ROICexgc 8.05%
OM 4.54%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.16%
FCFM 5.77%
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.9
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.79
Debt/EBITDA 5.65
Cap/Depr 37.19%
Cap/Sales 3.4%
Interest Coverage 1.18
Cash Conversion 66.96%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.13
Quick Ratio 0.86
Altman-Z -0.32
F-Score6
WACC5.25%
ROIC/WACC0.84
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
EPS Next Y8.07%
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%15.57%
Revenue Next Year8.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.25%
Revenue Next 3Y4.71%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year235.53%
EBIT Next 3Y54.62%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y14.11%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y-26.95%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%