ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AMBP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - LU2369833749 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AMBP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AMBP was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AMBP have multiple concerns. AMBP has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AMBP had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AMBP reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AMBP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -0.49%, AMBP is doing worse than 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP has a worse Return On Invested Capital (4.39%) than 68.18% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AMBP is below the industry average of 7.50%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.39%) for AMBP is above the 3 year average (4.21%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.49% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 4.39% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
1.3 Margins
With a Operating Margin value of 4.54%, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 72.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AMBP's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 13.16%, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 90.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.54% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 13.16% |
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AMBP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AMBP remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AMBP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.31, we must say that AMBP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AMBP (-0.31) is worse than 77.27% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBP is 13.79, which is on the high side as it means it would take AMBP, 13.79 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AMBP has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.79) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.79 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.31 |
ROIC/WACC0.83
WACC5.29%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.13 indicates that AMBP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.13, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 72.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.86 indicates that AMBP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.86, AMBP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AMBP shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 50.00%, which is quite impressive.
Looking at the last year, AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.00% in the last year.
AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.98% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%15.57%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 17.82% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AMBP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.60% yearly.
EPS Next Y8.07%
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.63%
Revenue Next 2Y6.26%
Revenue Next 3Y5.6%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AMBP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.95.
AMBP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
AMBP's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.61.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.80, the valuation of AMBP can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AMBP indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMBP is more expensive than 63.64% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 37.13, AMBP is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AMBP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AMBP is cheaper than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AMBP, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.45 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AMBP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 17.82% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.35
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.05%, AMBP is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.97, AMBP pays a better dividend. On top of this AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.05% |
5.2 History
AMBP has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
AMBP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-977.78%
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
3.98
0 (0%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners18.59%
Inst Owner Change-0.06%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.38B
Analysts53.33
Price Target4.42 (11.06%)
Short Float %2.63%
Short Ratio1.77
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.05% |
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-977.78%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.82%
Min EPS beat(2)11.58%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)256.66%
Min EPS beat(4)11.58%
Max EPS beat(4)959.99%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)115.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)76.53%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.09%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.79%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.79%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.29%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.52%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)16.96%
PT rev (3m)29.66%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)90.58%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.48%
EPS NY rev (3m)21.7%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.96%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.44%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.48 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.41 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.29 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.45 |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY5.28%
EPS(NY)0.25
Fwd EY6.33%
FCF(TTM)0.47
FCFY11.9%
OCF(TTM)0.75
OCFY18.92%
SpS8.21
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)2.35
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.49% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 5.56% | ||
| ROIC | 4.39% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.05% | ||
| OM | 4.54% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 13.16% | ||
| FCFM | 5.77% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.9
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.79 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.65 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 37.19% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.18 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.31 |
F-Score6
WACC5.29%
ROIC/WACC0.83
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
EPS Next Y8.07%
EPS Next 2Y18.31%
EPS Next 3Y17.82%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%15.57%
Revenue Next Year10.63%
Revenue Next 2Y6.26%
Revenue Next 3Y5.6%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year235.53%
EBIT Next 3Y54.62%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y14.11%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y-26.95%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%