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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AMBP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - LU2369833749 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

3.9  -0.03 (-0.76%)

After market: 3.9 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

3

Overall AMBP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AMBP against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. AMBP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AMBP has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AMBP had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBP reported negative net income in multiple years.
AMBP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
AMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

With a Return On Assets value of -0.49%, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Return On Invested Capital of AMBP (4.39%) is worse than 68.18% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AMBP is below the industry average of 7.52%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.39%) for AMBP is above the 3 year average (4.21%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.49%
ROE N/A
ROIC 4.39%
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
AMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 -100 200 -200 -300

1.3 Margins

AMBP has a worse Operating Margin (4.54%) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AMBP has declined.
AMBP has a Gross Margin of 13.16%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AMBP underperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.54%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.16%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
AMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5 -5 10 15

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AMBP is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
AMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingAMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
AMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

AMBP has an Altman-Z score of -0.31. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AMBP has a worse Altman-Z score (-0.31) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBP is 13.79, which is on the high side as it means it would take AMBP, 13.79 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 13.79, AMBP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.79
Altman-Z -0.31
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC5.46%
AMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.13 indicates that AMBP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AMBP (1.13) is worse than 68.18% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a Quick Ratio of 1.13. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AMBP has a Quick ratio of 0.86. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AMBP outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.13
Quick Ratio 0.86
AMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 58.33% over the past year.
AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.42%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.98% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)58.33%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%11.13%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.24% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AMBP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.22% yearly.
EPS Next Y1.29%
EPS Next 2Y15.58%
EPS Next 3Y16.24%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7%
Revenue Next 2Y4.67%
Revenue Next 3Y4.22%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
AMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.1 0.2 0.3

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 20.53 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AMBP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBP indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMBP is more expensive than 68.18% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AMBP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.25, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
AMBP is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.22.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AMBP is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 63.64% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
AMBP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.15, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.53
Fwd PE 16.22
AMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AMBP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 63.64% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AMBP indicates a rather cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 8.24
EV/EBITDA 8.38
AMBP Per share dataAMBP EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 -2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AMBP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 16.24% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)15.89
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y15.58%
EPS Next 3Y16.24%

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AMBP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.18%, which is a nice return.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.19. AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 10.18%

5.2 History

AMBP has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
AMBP Yearly Dividends per shareAMBP Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

AMBP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-977.78%
EPS Next 2Y15.58%
EPS Next 3Y16.24%
AMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M

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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA

NYSE:AMBP (5/30/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 3.9 0 (0%)

3.9

-0.03 (-0.76%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)04-24 2025-04-24/bmo
Earnings (Next)07-23 2025-07-23/bmo
Inst Owners18.09%
Inst Owner Change1.51%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.33B
Analysts53.85
Price Target3.82 (-2.05%)
Short Float %1.53%
Short Ratio1.07
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 10.18%
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-977.78%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date05-05 2025-05-05 (0.1)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.82%
Min EPS beat(2)11.58%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)256.66%
Min EPS beat(4)11.58%
Max EPS beat(4)959.99%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)115.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)76.53%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.09%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.79%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.79%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.29%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.52%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)11.96%
PT rev (3m)7.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)90.58%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-83.56%
EPS NY rev (1m)14.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)-14.32%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.68%
Revenue NY rev (1m)3.33%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.45%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.53
Fwd PE 16.22
P/S 0.47
P/FCF 8.24
P/OCF 5.18
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 8.38
EPS(TTM)0.19
EY4.87%
EPS(NY)0.24
Fwd EY6.17%
FCF(TTM)0.47
FCFY12.14%
OCF(TTM)0.75
OCFY19.3%
SpS8.21
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)15.89
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.49%
ROE N/A
ROCE 5.56%
ROIC 4.39%
ROICexc 5.16%
ROICexgc 8.05%
OM 4.54%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.16%
FCFM 5.77%
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.9
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.79
Debt/EBITDA 5.65
Cap/Depr 37.19%
Cap/Sales 3.4%
Interest Coverage 1.18
Cash Conversion 66.96%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.13
Quick Ratio 0.86
Altman-Z -0.31
F-Score6
WACC5.46%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)58.33%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%100%
EPS Next Y1.29%
EPS Next 2Y15.58%
EPS Next 3Y16.24%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%11.13%
Revenue Next Year7%
Revenue Next 2Y4.67%
Revenue Next 3Y4.22%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year235.53%
EBIT Next 3Y54.62%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y14.11%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y-26.95%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%