ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDING (ALSN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ALSN - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US01973R1014 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
ALSN gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 128 industry peers in the Machinery industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making ALSN a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. ALSN may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings could make ALSN a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALSN had positive earnings in the past year.
ALSN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ALSN has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years ALSN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
ALSN's Return On Assets of 14.05% is amongst the best of the industry. ALSN outperforms 92.97% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 45.29%, ALSN belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.09% of the companies in the same industry.
ALSN has a better Return On Invested Capital (16.90%) than 89.84% of its industry peers.
ALSN had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 16.17%. This is significantly above the industry average of 10.31%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (16.90%) for ALSN is above the 3 year average (16.17%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.05% | ||
| ROE | 45.29% | ||
| ROIC | 16.9% |
ROA(3y)12.82%
ROA(5y)11.01%
ROE(3y)53.2%
ROE(5y)53.78%
ROIC(3y)16.17%
ROIC(5y)14.56%
1.3 Margins
ALSN has a better Profit Margin (23.55%) than 98.44% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALSN has remained more or less at the same level.
ALSN's Operating Margin of 31.45% is amongst the best of the industry. ALSN outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ALSN has remained more or less at the same level.
ALSN's Gross Margin of 48.13% is amongst the best of the industry. ALSN outperforms 91.41% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALSN has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 31.45% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | 48.13% |
OM growth 3Y3.47%
OM growth 5Y-1.48%
PM growth 3Y7.2%
PM growth 5Y0.25%
GM growth 3Y-0.12%
GM growth 5Y-1.71%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ALSN has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for ALSN has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
ALSN has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ALSN has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ALSN has an Altman-Z score of 2.86. This is not the best score and indicates that ALSN is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
ALSN has a Altman-Z score of 2.86. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALSN outperforms 44.53% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ALSN is 3.69, which is a good value as it means it would take ALSN, 3.69 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ALSN has a better Debt to FCF ratio (3.69) than 60.16% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.44 is on the high side and indicates that ALSN has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.44, ALSN is not doing good in the industry: 82.03% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.44 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.69 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.86 |
ROIC/WACC1.66
WACC10.21%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.05 indicates that ALSN has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
ALSN has a better Current ratio (3.05) than 77.34% of its industry peers.
ALSN has a Quick Ratio of 2.37. This indicates that ALSN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
ALSN has a Quick ratio of 2.37. This is amongst the best in the industry. ALSN outperforms 81.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.37 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ALSN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 15.35%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, ALSN shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 11.10% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.86% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.63% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.35%
EPS 3Y26.35%
EPS 5Y11.1%
EPS Q2Q%17.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.86%
Revenue growth 3Y10.32%
Revenue growth 5Y3.63%
Sales Q2Q%-2.92%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ALSN will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.70% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, ALSN will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.73% on average per year.
EPS Next Y6.98%
EPS Next 2Y10.51%
EPS Next 3Y9%
EPS Next 5Y6.7%
Revenue Next Year-0.73%
Revenue Next 2Y1.54%
Revenue Next 3Y1.68%
Revenue Next 5Y3.73%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.02 indicates a correct valuation of ALSN.
88.28% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALSN, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.03. ALSN is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.23, the valuation of ALSN can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALSN is valued cheaper than 86.72% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALSN to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.94), we can say ALSN is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALSN is valued cheaper than 80.47% of the companies in the same industry.
82.03% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALSN, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.51 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
ALSN has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.72
PEG (5Y)1.08
EPS Next 2Y10.51%
EPS Next 3Y9%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.03%, ALSN has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
ALSN's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.83.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, ALSN's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.03% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ALSN is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 10.94%!
ALSN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
ALSN has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.94%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
ALSN pays out 11.80% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
ALSN's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP11.8%
EPS Next 2Y10.51%
EPS Next 3Y9%
103.84
-2.44 (-2.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.31%
Inst Owner Change-0.81%
Ins Owners0.45%
Ins Owner Change5.53%
Market Cap8.85B
Analysts72
Price Target100.4 (-3.31%)
Short Float %3.28%
Short Ratio3.19
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.03% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.94%
DP11.8%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)5.32%
Min EPS beat(2)3.3%
Max EPS beat(2)7.34%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)6.02%
Min EPS beat(4)3.14%
Max EPS beat(4)10.3%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)8.51%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)8.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)8.9%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.5%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.17%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.59%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.26%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.48%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.18%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.13%
PT rev (1m)-7.02%
PT rev (3m)-9.22%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.86%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.15%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.4%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.36%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.84%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-5.37%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.23 | ||
| P/S | 2.76 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.59 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.94 | ||
| P/B | 5.32 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.51 |
EPS(TTM)8.64
EY8.32%
EPS(NY)10.15
Fwd EY9.77%
FCF(TTM)7.64
FCFY7.36%
OCF(TTM)9.49
OCFY9.14%
SpS37.57
BVpS19.54
TBVpS-14.43
PEG (NY)1.72
PEG (5Y)1.08
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.05% | ||
| ROE | 45.29% | ||
| ROCE | 20.75% | ||
| ROIC | 16.9% | ||
| ROICexc | 20% | ||
| ROICexgc | 68.06% | ||
| OM | 31.45% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | 48.13% | ||
| FCFM | 20.33% |
ROA(3y)12.82%
ROA(5y)11.01%
ROE(3y)53.2%
ROE(5y)53.78%
ROIC(3y)16.17%
ROIC(5y)14.56%
ROICexc(3y)18.31%
ROICexc(5y)16.12%
ROICexgc(3y)68.06%
ROICexgc(5y)64.53%
ROCE(3y)19.85%
ROCE(5y)17.88%
ROICexcg growth 3Y4.74%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y12.45%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.03%
OM growth 3Y3.47%
OM growth 5Y-1.48%
PM growth 3Y7.2%
PM growth 5Y0.25%
GM growth 3Y-0.12%
GM growth 5Y-1.71%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.6
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.44 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.69 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.13 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 132.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.93% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 8.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 71.85% | ||
| Profit Quality | 86.34% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.37 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.86 |
F-Score8
WACC10.21%
ROIC/WACC1.66
Cap/Depr(3y)102.36%
Cap/Depr(5y)100.29%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.86%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.48%
Profit Quality(3y)93.4%
Profit Quality(5y)106.69%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.35%
EPS 3Y26.35%
EPS 5Y11.1%
EPS Q2Q%17.37%
EPS Next Y6.98%
EPS Next 2Y10.51%
EPS Next 3Y9%
EPS Next 5Y6.7%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.86%
Revenue growth 3Y10.32%
Revenue growth 5Y3.63%
Sales Q2Q%-2.92%
Revenue Next Year-0.73%
Revenue Next 2Y1.54%
Revenue Next 3Y1.68%
Revenue Next 5Y3.73%
EBIT growth 1Y9.1%
EBIT growth 3Y14.15%
EBIT growth 5Y2.1%
EBIT Next Year18.01%
EBIT Next 3Y5.68%
EBIT Next 5Y7.45%
FCF growth 1Y26.16%
FCF growth 3Y12.67%
FCF growth 5Y-0.48%
OCF growth 1Y17.76%
OCF growth 3Y8.05%
OCF growth 5Y-1.11%