AIR LEASE CORP (AL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AL - US00912X3026 - Common Stock
63.64 USD
-0.16 (-0.25%)
63.5 USD
-0.14 (-0.22%)
AL gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 50 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. While AL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AL is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! Finally AL also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AL had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AL had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years AL 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AL had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AL has a Return On Assets (2.77%) which is in line with its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 11.22%, AL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of AL (3.68%) is worse than 66.00% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AL is significantly below the industry average of 9.98%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.77% | ||
| ROE | 11.22% | ||
| ROIC | 3.68% |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AL (32.13%) is better than 98.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AL has declined.
AL's Operating Margin of 49.99% is amongst the best of the industry. AL outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
AL's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 49.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 32.13% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AL is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AL has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AL has an Altman-Z score of 0.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AL has a Altman-Z score of 0.56. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AL underperforms 92.00% of its industry peers.
AL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 2.47, AL is doing worse than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC6.59%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.26 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AL (0.26) is worse than 96.00% of its industry peers.
AL has a Quick Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AL's Quick ratio of 0.26 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 92.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 28.27%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, AL shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.81% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 6.15% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.27% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.27%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%311.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.15%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%9.65%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 37.36% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, AL will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.41% on average per year.
EPS Next Y109.74%
EPS Next 2Y29.29%
EPS Next 3Y37.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y8.3%
Revenue Next 3Y8.41%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.62, the valuation of AL can be described as reasonable.
AL's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 92.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.03. AL is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
AL is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.23.
AL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 88.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.63, AL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 74.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.29 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AL's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AL's earnings are expected to grow with 37.36% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.1
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y29.29%
EPS Next 3Y37.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.45%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.69, AL pays a better dividend. On top of this AL pays more dividend than 84.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AL's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.45% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AL is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 15.24%!
AL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
AL pays out 15.48% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AL's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP15.48%
EPS Next 2Y29.29%
EPS Next 3Y37.36%
63.64
-0.16 (-0.25%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.22%
Inst Owner Change-5.18%
Ins Owners1.25%
Ins Owner Change1.67%
Market Cap7.11B
Analysts81.33
Price Target66.3 (4.18%)
Short Float %3.28%
Short Ratio4.63
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.45% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
DP15.48%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)157.71%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(2)317.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)83.03%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(4)317.16%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)47.99%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)33.75%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)40.45%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.92%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.69%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.92%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.42%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.38%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.15%
PT rev (1m)3.72%
PT rev (3m)18.18%
EPS NQ rev (1m)15.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)14.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.97%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.04%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.23%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.37%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.23 | ||
| P/S | 2.48 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.06 | ||
| P/B | 0.86 | ||
| P/tB | 0.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.29 |
EPS(TTM)5.99
EY9.41%
EPS(NY)5.67
Fwd EY8.9%
FCF(TTM)-18.13
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.69
OCFY24.66%
SpS25.7
BVpS73.58
TBVpS73.58
PEG (NY)0.1
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.77% | ||
| ROE | 11.22% | ||
| ROCE | 4.55% | ||
| ROIC | 3.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.73% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.09% | ||
| OM | 49.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 32.13% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)3.9%
ROICexc(5y)3.88%
ROICexgc(3y)4.48%
ROICexgc(5y)4.46%
ROCE(3y)4.73%
ROCE(5y)4.62%
ROICexcg growth 3Y3.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.21%
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.74 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 318.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 131.57% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.63 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
F-Score7
WACC6.59%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)355.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)321.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)145.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)131.53%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.27%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%311.11%
EPS Next Y109.74%
EPS Next 2Y29.29%
EPS Next 3Y37.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.15%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%9.65%
Revenue Next Year10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y8.3%
Revenue Next 3Y8.41%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y3.78%
EBIT growth 3Y9.14%
EBIT growth 5Y3.21%
EBIT Next Year161.02%
EBIT Next 3Y42.21%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y16.04%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y11.4%
OCF growth 3Y6.8%
OCF growth 5Y3.79%