AIR LEASE CORP (AL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AL - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00912X3026 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
AL gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. AL has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AL is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate. Finally AL also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AL was profitable.
In the past year AL had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years AL 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 1.98%, AL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.67% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 8.13%, AL is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.83% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 4.79%, AL is not doing good in the industry: 60.42% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AL is significantly below the industry average of 9.62%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.79%) for AL is above the 3 year average (3.82%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.98% | ||
| ROE | 8.13% | ||
| ROIC | 4.79% |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AL (22.76%) is better than 95.83% of its industry peers.
AL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 61.75%, AL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AL has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 61.75% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 22.76% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AL is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AL has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AL has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AL has an Altman-Z score of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AL's Altman-Z score of 0.52 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 95.83% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.53 is on the high side and indicates that AL has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 2.53, AL is doing worse than 81.25% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.52 |
ROIC/WACC0.74
WACC6.44%
2.3 Liquidity
AL has a Current Ratio of 0.15. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.15, AL is doing worse than 97.92% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.15 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AL's Quick ratio of 0.15 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 97.92% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.15 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -30.04%.
AL shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.81% yearly.
AL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 3.56%.
AL shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.27% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.04%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%9.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.56%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%11.3%
3.2 Future
AL is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 23.07% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.36% on average per year.
EPS Next Y101.73%
EPS Next 2Y30.65%
EPS Next 3Y23.07%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.13%
Revenue Next 2Y7.65%
Revenue Next 3Y7.36%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.80, AL is valued correctly.
AL's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 79.17% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.48.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.08, the valuation of AL can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AL is valued cheaper than 85.42% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.52, AL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.08 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 81.25% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.95 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AL's earnings are expected to grow with 23.07% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y30.65%
EPS Next 3Y23.07%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.49%, AL has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AL's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.01. AL pays more dividend than 81.25% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.49% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AL grows each year by 15.24%, which is quite nice.
AL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
22.38% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AL's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP22.38%
EPS Next 2Y30.65%
EPS Next 3Y23.07%
58.31
+0.01 (+0.02%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners102.43%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.25%
Ins Owner Change5.67%
Market Cap6.52B
Analysts81.33
Price Target60.01 (2.92%)
Short Float %2.9%
Short Ratio3.33
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.49% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
DP22.38%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(2)16.06%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.56%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.72%
Max EPS beat(4)16.06%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)8.31%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)7.17%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)20.02%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.69%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.92%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.92%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.47%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.37%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.09%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)7.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)73.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)55.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.52%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.74%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.08 | ||
| P/S | 2.32 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.85 | ||
| P/B | 0.83 | ||
| P/tB | 0.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.95 |
EPS(TTM)3.47
EY5.95%
EPS(NY)5.79
Fwd EY9.92%
FCF(TTM)-20.12
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.16
OCFY26%
SpS25.13
BVpS70.38
TBVpS70.38
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.98% | ||
| ROE | 8.13% | ||
| ROCE | 5.92% | ||
| ROIC | 4.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.49% | ||
| OM | 61.75% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 22.76% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)3.9%
ROICexc(5y)3.88%
ROICexgc(3y)4.48%
ROICexgc(5y)4.46%
ROCE(3y)4.73%
ROCE(5y)4.62%
ROICexcg growth 3Y3.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.21%
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 6.86 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 338.27% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 140.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.09 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 58.42% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.52 |
F-Score6
WACC6.44%
ROIC/WACC0.74
Cap/Depr(3y)355.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)321.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)145.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)131.53%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.04%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%9.2%
EPS Next Y101.73%
EPS Next 2Y30.65%
EPS Next 3Y23.07%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.56%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%11.3%
Revenue Next Year8.13%
Revenue Next 2Y7.65%
Revenue Next 3Y7.36%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y23.64%
EBIT growth 3Y9.14%
EBIT growth 5Y3.21%
EBIT Next Year158.79%
EBIT Next 3Y42.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y9.62%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y14.77%
OCF growth 3Y6.8%
OCF growth 5Y3.79%