AIR LEASE CORP (AL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AL - US00912X3026 - Common Stock
63.55 USD
+0.05 (+0.08%)
63.55 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AL scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AL was compared to 49 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. AL has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AL has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. AL also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AL was profitable.
In the past year AL had a positive cash flow from operations.
AL had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AL had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AL has a Return On Assets (2.77%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AL's Return On Equity of 11.22% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AL outperforms 53.06% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 3.68%, AL is not doing good in the industry: 63.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.82%. This is significantly below the industry average of 10.03%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.77% | ||
| ROE | 11.22% | ||
| ROIC | 3.68% |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 32.13%, AL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AL has declined.
AL's Operating Margin of 49.99% is amongst the best of the industry. AL outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AL has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 49.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 32.13% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AL is destroying value.
AL has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AL has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AL has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.56, we must say that AL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.56, AL is not doing good in the industry: 89.80% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 2.47, AL is doing worse than 77.55% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC6.54%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.26 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AL has a Current ratio of 0.26. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AL underperforms 95.92% of its industry peers.
AL has a Quick Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.26, AL is doing worse than 91.84% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 28.27%, which is quite impressive.
AL shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.81% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.15% in the past year.
AL shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.27% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.27%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%311.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.15%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%9.65%
3.2 Future
AL is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 29.57% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.81% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y176.52%
EPS Next 2Y23.56%
EPS Next 3Y29.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year9.24%
Revenue Next 2Y7.77%
Revenue Next 3Y7.81%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.61, the valuation of AL can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AL is valued cheaper than 91.84% of the companies in the same industry.
AL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.31, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.28, the valuation of AL can be described as correct.
AL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 77.55% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.85. AL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.43% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AL's earnings are expected to grow with 29.57% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y23.56%
EPS Next 3Y29.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.38%.
AL's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.84.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, AL's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.38% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AL grows each year by 15.24%, which is quite nice.
AL has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
AL pays out 15.48% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AL's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP15.48%
EPS Next 2Y23.56%
EPS Next 3Y29.57%
63.55
+0.05 (+0.08%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.86%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners1.23%
Ins Owner Change-0.03%
Market Cap7.10B
Analysts80
Price Target63.24 (-0.49%)
Short Float %2.15%
Short Ratio1.18
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.38% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
DP15.48%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)157.71%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(2)317.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)83.03%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(4)317.16%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)47.99%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)33.75%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)40.45%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.92%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.69%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.92%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.42%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.38%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.15%
PT rev (1m)-3.73%
PT rev (3m)5.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.47%
EPS NQ rev (3m)22.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)31.84%
EPS NY rev (3m)37.07%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.42%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.28 | ||
| P/S | 2.47 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.05 | ||
| P/B | 0.86 | ||
| P/tB | 0.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.28 |
EPS(TTM)5.99
EY9.43%
EPS(NY)5.18
Fwd EY8.14%
FCF(TTM)-18.13
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.69
OCFY24.69%
SpS25.7
BVpS73.58
TBVpS73.58
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.77% | ||
| ROE | 11.22% | ||
| ROCE | 4.55% | ||
| ROIC | 3.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.73% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.09% | ||
| OM | 49.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 32.13% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)3.9%
ROICexc(5y)3.88%
ROICexgc(3y)4.48%
ROICexgc(5y)4.46%
ROCE(3y)4.73%
ROCE(5y)4.62%
ROICexcg growth 3Y3.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.21%
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.74 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 318.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 131.57% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.63 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
F-Score7
WACC6.54%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)355.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)321.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)145.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)131.53%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.27%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%311.11%
EPS Next Y176.52%
EPS Next 2Y23.56%
EPS Next 3Y29.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.15%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%9.65%
Revenue Next Year9.24%
Revenue Next 2Y7.77%
Revenue Next 3Y7.81%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y3.78%
EBIT growth 3Y9.14%
EBIT growth 5Y3.21%
EBIT Next Year178.86%
EBIT Next 3Y42.18%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y16.04%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y11.4%
OCF growth 3Y6.8%
OCF growth 5Y3.79%