AIR LEASE CORP (AL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AL - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00912X3026 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AL scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AL was compared to 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. AL has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AL has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. Finally AL also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AL had positive earnings in the past year.
AL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AL had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
AL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 1.98%, AL is not doing good in the industry: 62.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
With a Return On Equity value of 8.13%, AL is not doing good in the industry: 60.42% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 4.79%, AL is doing worse than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
AL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.82%. This is significantly below the industry average of 9.18%.
The 3 year average ROIC (3.82%) for AL is below the current ROIC(4.79%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.98% | ||
| ROE | 8.13% | ||
| ROIC | 4.79% |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 22.76%, AL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.83% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of AL (61.75%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AL has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 61.75% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 22.76% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AL has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AL has an Altman-Z score of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AL (0.52) is worse than 93.75% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.53 is on the high side and indicates that AL has dependencies on debt financing.
AL has a Debt to Equity ratio of 2.53. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AL underperforms 81.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.52 |
ROIC/WACC0.75
WACC6.39%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.15 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AL has a worse Current ratio (0.15) than 97.92% of its industry peers.
AL has a Quick Ratio of 0.15. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.15, AL is not doing good in the industry: 97.92% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.15 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AL have decreased strongly by -30.04% in the last year.
AL shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.81% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.56% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.27% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.04%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%9.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.56%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%11.3%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 24.56% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.61% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y96.77%
EPS Next 2Y35.3%
EPS Next 3Y24.56%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.8%
Revenue Next 2Y7.64%
Revenue Next 3Y7.61%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 16.39, which indicates a correct valuation of AL.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AL is valued a bit cheaper than 68.75% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AL to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.82), we can say AL is valued slightly cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.16, the valuation of AL can be described as very reasonable.
83.33% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AL, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
AL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.76.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.39 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AL's earnings are expected to grow with 24.56% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.3%
EPS Next 3Y24.56%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.53%.
AL's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.68.
AL's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.53% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AL grows each year by 15.24%, which is quite nice.
AL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
AL pays out 22.38% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AL's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP22.38%
EPS Next 2Y35.3%
EPS Next 3Y24.56%
56.87
-0.24 (-0.42%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners99.58%
Inst Owner Change1.33%
Ins Owners6.46%
Ins Owner Change4.97%
Market Cap6.36B
Analysts78.67
Price Target56.1 (-1.35%)
Short Float %3.4%
Short Ratio3.36
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.53% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
DP22.38%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(2)16.06%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.56%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.72%
Max EPS beat(4)16.06%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)8.31%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)7.17%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)20.02%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.69%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.92%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.92%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.47%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.37%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.09%
PT rev (1m)0.3%
PT rev (3m)-4.94%
EPS NQ rev (1m)43.33%
EPS NQ rev (3m)37.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)52.09%
EPS NY rev (3m)44.55%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.24%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.44%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.22%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.39 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.16 | ||
| P/S | 2.26 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.75 | ||
| P/B | 0.81 | ||
| P/tB | 0.81 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
EPS(TTM)3.47
EY6.1%
EPS(NY)6.21
Fwd EY10.91%
FCF(TTM)-20.12
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.16
OCFY26.65%
SpS25.13
BVpS70.38
TBVpS70.38
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.98% | ||
| ROE | 8.13% | ||
| ROCE | 5.92% | ||
| ROIC | 4.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.49% | ||
| OM | 61.75% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 22.76% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)3.9%
ROICexc(5y)3.88%
ROICexgc(3y)4.48%
ROICexgc(5y)4.46%
ROCE(3y)4.73%
ROCE(5y)4.62%
ROICexcg growth 3Y3.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.21%
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 6.86 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 338.27% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 140.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.09 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 58.42% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.52 |
F-Score6
WACC6.39%
ROIC/WACC0.75
Cap/Depr(3y)355.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)321.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)145.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)131.53%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.04%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%9.2%
EPS Next Y96.77%
EPS Next 2Y35.3%
EPS Next 3Y24.56%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.56%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%11.3%
Revenue Next Year7.8%
Revenue Next 2Y7.64%
Revenue Next 3Y7.61%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y23.64%
EBIT growth 3Y9.14%
EBIT growth 5Y3.21%
EBIT Next Year145.67%
EBIT Next 3Y42.11%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y9.62%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y14.77%
OCF growth 3Y6.8%
OCF growth 5Y3.79%