AIR LEASE CORP (AL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AL - US00912X3026 - Common Stock
64.15 USD
+0.08 (+0.12%)
64.15 USD
0 (0%)
Overall AL gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AL against 50 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. While AL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AL is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate. Finally AL also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AL had positive earnings in the past year.
AL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AL had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
AL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AL's Return On Assets of 2.90% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AL outperforms 46.00% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 11.59%, AL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Return On Invested Capital of 3.68% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 60.00% of its industry peers.
AL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.82%. This is significantly below the industry average of 9.63%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 11.59% | ||
| ROIC | 3.68% |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 33.24%, AL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 98.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of AL (49.56%) is better than 98.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AL has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 49.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 33.24% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AL is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AL has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AL has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AL has an Altman-Z score of 0.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AL (0.56) is worse than 92.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.42 is on the high side and indicates that AL has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.42, AL is not doing good in the industry: 76.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC6.6%
2.3 Liquidity
AL has a Current Ratio of 0.27. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AL has a worse Current ratio (0.27) than 96.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.27 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.27, AL is doing worse than 92.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.27 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 45.33% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, AL shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.81% on average per year.
AL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 6.24%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.27% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)45.33%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%47.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.24%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%5.1%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.86% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, AL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.37% on average per year.
EPS Next Y170.29%
EPS Next 2Y21.76%
EPS Next 3Y20.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.38%
Revenue Next 2Y7.24%
Revenue Next 3Y7.37%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 10.05 indicates a reasonable valuation of AL.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.39. AL is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
AL is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.76.
AL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 92.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.84.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
70.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AL, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AL's earnings are expected to grow with 20.86% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y21.76%
EPS Next 3Y20.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.37%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.98, AL pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
AL's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 1.87.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.37% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AL grows each year by 15.24%, which is quite nice.
AL has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
AL pays out 14.77% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AL is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP14.77%
EPS Next 2Y21.76%
EPS Next 3Y20.86%
64.15
+0.08 (+0.12%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.47%
Inst Owner Change-3.97%
Ins Owners1.17%
Ins Owner Change-16.64%
Market Cap7.17B
Revenue(TTM)2.91B
Net Income(TTM)966.76M
Analysts80
Price Target63.24 (-1.42%)
Short Float %1.86%
Short Ratio0.89
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.37% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
DP14.77%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)159.76%
Min EPS beat(2)2.35%
Max EPS beat(2)317.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)83.46%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.74%
Max EPS beat(4)317.16%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)47.77%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)34.34%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)39.24%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.21%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.66%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.66%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.21%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.92%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.37%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.43%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.3%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.83%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.25%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.72%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.99%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.79%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.76 | ||
| P/S | 2.47 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.1 | ||
| P/B | 0.86 | ||
| P/tB | 0.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.16 |
EPS(TTM)6.38
EY9.95%
EPS(NY)5.03
Fwd EY7.83%
FCF(TTM)-10.14
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.66
OCFY24.41%
SpS26.02
BVpS74.63
TBVpS74.63
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number103.5
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 11.59% | ||
| ROCE | 4.55% | ||
| ROIC | 3.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.73% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.07% | ||
| OM | 49.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 33.24% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)3.9%
ROICexc(5y)3.88%
ROICexgc(3y)4.48%
ROICexgc(5y)4.46%
ROCE(3y)4.73%
ROCE(5y)4.62%
ROICexgc growth 3Y3.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.21%
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 238.59% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 99.17% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.57 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.05% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.27 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.56 |
F-Score9
WACC6.6%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)355.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)321.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)145.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)131.53%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)45.33%
EPS 3Y-1.62%
EPS 5Y-7.81%
EPS Q2Q%47.56%
EPS Next Y170.29%
EPS Next 2Y21.76%
EPS Next 3Y20.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.24%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%5.1%
Revenue Next Year8.38%
Revenue Next 2Y7.24%
Revenue Next 3Y7.37%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y3.61%
EBIT growth 3Y9.14%
EBIT growth 5Y3.21%
EBIT Next Year170.29%
EBIT Next 3Y42.98%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y45.35%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.62%
OCF growth 3Y6.8%
OCF growth 5Y3.79%
AIR LEASE CORP / AL FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AL stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AL.
What is the valuation status of AIR LEASE CORP (AL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to AIR LEASE CORP (AL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AL stock?
AIR LEASE CORP (AL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for AL stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AIR LEASE CORP (AL) is 10.05 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.86.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AL stock?
The dividend rating of AIR LEASE CORP (AL) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 14.77%.