AES CORP (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00130H1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AES scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AES was compared to 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AES while its profitability can be described as average. AES has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. Finally AES also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AES had positive earnings in the past year.
AES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AES reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AES had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AES has a better Return On Assets (2.66%) than 78.95% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 37.28%, AES belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 3.93%, AES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AES is in line with the industry average of 3.81%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 37.28% | ||
| ROIC | 3.93% |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.08%
1.3 Margins
AES has a better Profit Margin (10.67%) than 63.16% of its industry peers.
AES's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.11%, AES is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.89% of the companies in the same industry.
AES's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AES has a Gross Margin of 17.96%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AES underperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
AES's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.67% | ||
| GM | 17.96% |
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.23%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AES is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AES has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AES has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AES has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AES has an Altman-Z score of 0.48. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AES (0.48) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.62. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AES's Debt to Equity ratio of 7.62 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AES is outperformed by 78.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.48 |
ROIC/WACC0.71
WACC5.53%
2.3 Liquidity
AES has a Current Ratio of 0.84. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AES's Current ratio of 0.84 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AES is outperformed by 68.42% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.78 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AES (0.78) is worse than 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AES shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.86%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 9.23% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has decreased by -3.16% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, AES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.80% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.86%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%-46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%-5.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.68% on average per year.
AES is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.94% yearly.
EPS Next Y1.97%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y1.26%
Revenue Next 3Y1.82%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AES is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.21.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AES is valued cheaper than 89.47% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.46. AES is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.08, the valuation of AES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.47% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 36.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.08 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AES's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AES is cheaper than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.86 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)3.66
PEG (5Y)0.78
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.34%, which is a nice return.
AES's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 6.43.
AES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.34% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.08%.
AES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AES has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
38.05% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AES. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AES is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP38.05%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
13.69
+0.32 (+2.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.3%
Inst Owner Change0.12%
Ins Owners0.46%
Ins Owner Change0.61%
Market Cap9.75B
Analysts70.53
Price Target13.75 (0.44%)
Short Float %6.77%
Short Ratio2.51
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.34% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
DP38.05%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.97%
Min EPS beat(2)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(2)55.73%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(4)55.73%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.57%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.45%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)7.74%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.71%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.48%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.58%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.48%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.01%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.39%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.22%
PT rev (1m)-1.26%
PT rev (3m)-11.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.15%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.39%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.08 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.27 | ||
| P/B | 2.81 | ||
| P/tB | 8.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.86 |
EPS(TTM)1.9
EY13.88%
EPS(NY)2.25
Fwd EY16.46%
FCF(TTM)-4.94
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)4.19
OCFY30.6%
SpS17.02
BVpS4.87
TBVpS1.66
PEG (NY)3.66
PEG (5Y)0.78
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 37.28% | ||
| ROCE | 4.97% | ||
| ROIC | 3.93% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.12% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.39% | ||
| OM | 16.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.67% | ||
| GM | 17.96% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.08%
ROICexc(3y)5.38%
ROICexc(5y)6.39%
ROICexgc(3y)5.79%
ROICexgc(5y)6.93%
ROCE(3y)6.44%
ROCE(5y)7.69%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-20.58%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y-19.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.69%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.23%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.15 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 504.11% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 53.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 92.01% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.48 |
F-Score5
WACC5.53%
ROIC/WACC0.71
Cap/Depr(3y)567.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)416.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)52.42%
Cap/Sales(5y)39.18%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.86%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%-46%
EPS Next Y1.97%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%-5.15%
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y1.26%
Revenue Next 3Y1.82%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.24%
EBIT growth 3Y-10.52%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.59%
EBIT Next Year31.05%
EBIT Next 3Y16.83%
EBIT Next 5Y9.33%
FCF growth 1Y-47.98%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y0.74%
OCF growth 3Y13.34%
OCF growth 5Y3.54%