AES CORP (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00130H1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AES. AES was compared to 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AES while its profitability can be described as average. AES has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. AES also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AES was profitable.
In the past year AES had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AES reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AES always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 2.66%, AES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
AES has a better Return On Equity (37.28%) than 84.21% of its industry peers.
AES has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.93%. This is in the better half of the industry: AES outperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AES is in line with the industry average of 3.81%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 37.28% | ||
| ROIC | 3.93% |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.08%
1.3 Margins
AES has a better Profit Margin (10.67%) than 63.16% of its industry peers.
AES's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.11%, AES is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.89% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AES has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 17.96%, AES is doing worse than 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
AES's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.67% | ||
| GM | 17.96% |
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.23%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AES is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AES has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AES has more shares outstanding
AES has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AES has an Altman-Z score of 0.48. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AES has a Altman-Z score of 0.48. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AES outperforms 52.63% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 7.62 is on the high side and indicates that AES has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 7.62, AES is doing worse than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.48 |
ROIC/WACC0.71
WACC5.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.84 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.84, AES is doing worse than 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.78 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.78, AES is doing worse than 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AES shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.86%.
Measured over the past years, AES shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.23% on average per year.
AES shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.16%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.80% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.86%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%-46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%-5.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.68% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.94% on average per year.
EPS Next Y1.97%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y1.26%
Revenue Next 3Y1.82%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 7.26 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AES.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AES indicates a rather cheap valuation: AES is cheaper than 89.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.04, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.13, the valuation of AES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.47% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 37.64, AES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AES's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AES is cheaper than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.89 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)3.69
PEG (5Y)0.79
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.34%, AES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
AES's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 6.24.
AES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.35.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.34% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.08%.
AES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AES has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
AES pays out 38.05% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AES is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP38.05%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
13.8
0 (0%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.3%
Inst Owner Change0.12%
Ins Owners0.46%
Ins Owner Change0.61%
Market Cap9.82B
Analysts70.53
Price Target13.75 (-0.36%)
Short Float %6.77%
Short Ratio2.51
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.34% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
DP38.05%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.97%
Min EPS beat(2)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(2)55.73%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(4)55.73%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.57%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.45%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)7.74%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.71%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.48%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.58%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.48%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.01%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.39%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.22%
PT rev (1m)-1.26%
PT rev (3m)-11.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.15%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.39%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.81 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.29 | ||
| P/B | 2.83 | ||
| P/tB | 8.33 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.89 |
EPS(TTM)1.9
EY13.77%
EPS(NY)2.25
Fwd EY16.32%
FCF(TTM)-4.94
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)4.19
OCFY30.35%
SpS17.02
BVpS4.87
TBVpS1.66
PEG (NY)3.69
PEG (5Y)0.79
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 37.28% | ||
| ROCE | 4.97% | ||
| ROIC | 3.93% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.12% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.39% | ||
| OM | 16.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.67% | ||
| GM | 17.96% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.08%
ROICexc(3y)5.38%
ROICexc(5y)6.39%
ROICexgc(3y)5.79%
ROICexgc(5y)6.93%
ROCE(3y)6.44%
ROCE(5y)7.69%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-20.58%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y-19.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.69%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.23%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.15 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 504.11% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 53.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 92.01% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.48 |
F-Score5
WACC5.53%
ROIC/WACC0.71
Cap/Depr(3y)567.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)416.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)52.42%
Cap/Sales(5y)39.18%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.86%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%-46%
EPS Next Y1.97%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%-5.15%
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y1.26%
Revenue Next 3Y1.82%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.24%
EBIT growth 3Y-10.52%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.59%
EBIT Next Year31.05%
EBIT Next 3Y16.83%
EBIT Next 5Y9.33%
FCF growth 1Y-47.98%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y0.74%
OCF growth 3Y13.34%
OCF growth 5Y3.54%