AERCAP HOLDINGS NV (AER) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AER - NL0000687663 - Common Stock
123.63 USD
-1.52 (-1.21%)
123.63 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AER. AER was compared to 49 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. While AER is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AER has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AER was profitable.
AER had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AER reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AER always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AER has a Return On Assets of 4.00%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AER outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AER (16.43%) is better than 67.35% of its industry peers.
AER has a Return On Invested Capital of 4.62%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AER outperforms 44.90% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AER is significantly below the industry average of 10.03%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.47%) for AER is below the current ROIC(4.62%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4% | ||
| ROE | 16.43% | ||
| ROIC | 4.62% |
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AER (39.91%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
AER's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 48.14%, AER belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.96% of the companies in the same industry.
AER's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of AER (91.01%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AER has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 48.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 39.91% | ||
| GM | 91.01% |
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AER is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AER has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AER has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AER has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.82, we must say that AER is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AER (0.82) is worse than 81.63% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.57 is on the high side and indicates that AER has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.57, AER is not doing good in the industry: 79.59% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.57 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.82 |
ROIC/WACC0.74
WACC6.28%
2.3 Liquidity
AER has a Current Ratio of 1.50. This is a normal value and indicates that AER is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AER has a Current ratio of 1.50. This is in the lower half of the industry: AER underperforms 61.22% of its industry peers.
AER has a Quick Ratio of 1.48. This is a normal value and indicates that AER is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.48, AER is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.27% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.48 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AER have decreased strongly by -14.30% in the last year.
AER shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.30% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AER shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 1.86% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AER shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.12% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.3%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%-5.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.86%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%-3.65%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AER will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.06% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AER will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.41% on average per year.
EPS Next Y10.08%
EPS Next 2Y6.27%
EPS Next 3Y6.06%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.4%
Revenue Next 2Y2.03%
Revenue Next 3Y1.41%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.11, which indicates a very decent valuation of AER.
AER's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AER is cheaper than 93.88% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.76. AER is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.11 indicates a reasonable valuation of AER.
93.88% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AER, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.21. AER is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.11 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AER indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AER is cheaper than 69.39% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.53 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AER's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of AER may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1
PEG (5Y)1.38
EPS Next 2Y6.27%
EPS Next 3Y6.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AER has a yearly dividend return of 0.85%, which is pretty low.
AER's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.77.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.85, AER pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.85% |
5.2 History
AER does not have a reliable dividend history as it only pays dividend since a couple or years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AER pays out 6.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP6.56%
EPS Next 2Y6.27%
EPS Next 3Y6.06%
123.63
-1.52 (-1.21%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners92.94%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners3.14%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap21.54B
Analysts80
Price Target134.64 (8.91%)
Short Float %1.61%
Short Ratio1.71
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.85% |
Yearly Dividend0.72
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP6.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.85%
Min EPS beat(2)3.01%
Max EPS beat(2)32.7%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)15.53%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(4)32.7%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)27.6%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)29.37%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)25.17%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.67%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.51%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.17%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.07%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.51%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.56%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.28%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.67%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.13%
PT rev (1m)0.48%
PT rev (3m)5.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.55%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.37%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.06%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.11 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.11 | ||
| P/S | 2.92 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.05 | ||
| P/B | 1.2 | ||
| P/tB | 1.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.53 |
EPS(TTM)12.23
EY9.89%
EPS(NY)13.57
Fwd EY10.98%
FCF(TTM)-5.82
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)30.52
OCFY24.69%
SpS42.4
BVpS102.99
TBVpS91.34
PEG (NY)1
PEG (5Y)1.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4% | ||
| ROE | 16.43% | ||
| ROCE | 5.23% | ||
| ROIC | 4.62% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.81% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.98% | ||
| OM | 48.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 39.91% | ||
| GM | 91.01% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
ROICexc(3y)4.58%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.81%
ROICexgc(5y)4.74%
ROCE(3y)5.06%
ROCE(5y)4.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.2%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.48%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.64%
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.57 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.44 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 239.97% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 85.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.87 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 85.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.82 |
F-Score6
WACC6.28%
ROIC/WACC0.74
Cap/Depr(3y)223.23%
Cap/Depr(5y)168.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)78.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)59.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.3%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%-5.98%
EPS Next Y10.08%
EPS Next 2Y6.27%
EPS Next 3Y6.06%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.86%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%-3.65%
Revenue Next Year1.4%
Revenue Next 2Y2.03%
Revenue Next 3Y1.41%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-1.96%
EBIT growth 3Y7.89%
EBIT growth 5Y6.61%
EBIT Next Year79.4%
EBIT Next 3Y18.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-8765.45%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y1.91%
OCF growth 3Y13.75%
OCF growth 5Y11.85%