AERCAP HOLDINGS NV (AER) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AER - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - NL0000687663 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AER gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AER against 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. AER has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AER is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AER had positive earnings in the past year.
AER had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AER reported negative net income in multiple years.
AER had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AER has a Return On Assets (2.95%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AER has a Return On Equity (12.43%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AER has a worse Return On Invested Capital (4.68%) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
AER had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.47%. This is below the industry average of 9.18%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.68%) for AER is above the 3 year average (4.47%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.95% | ||
| ROE | 12.43% | ||
| ROIC | 4.68% |
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 28.93%, AER belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AER's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 48.13%, AER belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.92% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AER has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 89.95%, AER belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.92% of the companies in the same industry.
AER's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 48.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 28.93% | ||
| GM | 89.95% |
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AER is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AER has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
AER has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AER has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.77, we must say that AER is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.77, AER is not doing good in the industry: 89.58% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AER has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.69. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AER's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.69 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AER is outperformed by 83.33% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.69 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.85
WACC5.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that AER should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.26, AER is doing worse than 81.25% of the companies in the same industry.
AER has a Quick Ratio of 1.24. This is a normal value and indicates that AER is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AER's Quick ratio of 1.24 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AER outperforms 47.92% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AER have decreased strongly by -10.20% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, AER shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.30% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AER shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.84% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AER shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.12% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.2%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%11.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.84%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%2.92%
3.2 Future
AER is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.78% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.19% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y5.19%
EPS Next 2Y6.18%
EPS Next 3Y6.78%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.54%
Revenue Next 2Y2.75%
Revenue Next 3Y2.19%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 9.03 indicates a reasonable valuation of AER.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaper than 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AER to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.91), we can say AER is valued rather cheaply.
AER is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.27.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaper than 87.50% of the companies in the same industry.
AER is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.85, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.27 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AER's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.73 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AER's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
AER has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.74
PEG (5Y)1.24
EPS Next 2Y6.18%
EPS Next 3Y6.78%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.92%, AER is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
AER's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 2.68.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, AER's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.92% |
5.2 History
AER does not have a reliable dividend history as it only pays dividend since a couple or years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
6.81% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AER. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP6.81%
EPS Next 2Y6.18%
EPS Next 3Y6.78%
112.09
-0.27 (-0.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners89.75%
Inst Owner Change-1.54%
Ins Owners3.4%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap20.94B
Analysts82.86
Price Target126.35 (12.72%)
Short Float %1.18%
Short Ratio1.13
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.92% |
Yearly Dividend0.72
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP6.81%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)30.03%
Min EPS beat(2)27.36%
Max EPS beat(2)32.7%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)21.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(4)32.7%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)30.11%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)31.82%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)27.34%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.36%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.56%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.47%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.52%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.56%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.8%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.17%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.74%
PT rev (1m)1.43%
PT rev (3m)9.84%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.08%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)7.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.23%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.18%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.14%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.27 | ||
| P/S | 2.83 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.88 | ||
| P/B | 1.22 | ||
| P/tB | 1.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.73 |
EPS(TTM)12.41
EY11.07%
EPS(NY)13.55
Fwd EY12.09%
FCF(TTM)-11.19
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)28.89
OCFY25.77%
SpS39.55
BVpS92.04
TBVpS80.62
PEG (NY)1.74
PEG (5Y)1.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.95% | ||
| ROE | 12.43% | ||
| ROCE | 5.3% | ||
| ROIC | 4.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.93% | ||
| OM | 48.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 28.93% | ||
| GM | 89.95% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
ROICexc(3y)4.58%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.81%
ROICexgc(5y)4.74%
ROCE(3y)5.06%
ROCE(5y)4.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.2%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.48%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.64%
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.69 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 287.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 101.34% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.87 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 87.57% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
F-Score6
WACC5.53%
ROIC/WACC0.85
Cap/Depr(3y)223.23%
Cap/Depr(5y)168.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)78.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)59.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.2%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%11.85%
EPS Next Y5.19%
EPS Next 2Y6.18%
EPS Next 3Y6.78%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.84%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%2.92%
Revenue Next Year3.54%
Revenue Next 2Y2.75%
Revenue Next 3Y2.19%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y0.79%
EBIT growth 3Y7.89%
EBIT growth 5Y6.61%
EBIT Next Year63.17%
EBIT Next 3Y19.87%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-424.34%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y3.81%
OCF growth 3Y13.75%
OCF growth 5Y11.85%