AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AEO - US02553E1064 - Common Stock
17.11 USD
-0.13 (-0.75%)
17.1 USD
-0.01 (-0.06%)
Overall AEO gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated AEO against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AEO has an average financial health and profitability rating. AEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AEO was profitable.
In the past year AEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
AEO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years AEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AEO has a better Return On Assets (4.85%) than 68.85% of its industry peers.
AEO's Return On Equity of 12.76% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AEO outperforms 70.49% of its industry peers.
AEO's Return On Invested Capital of 6.67% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AEO outperforms 65.57% of its industry peers.
AEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 9.43%. This is below the industry average of 11.93%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.85% | ||
| ROE | 12.76% | ||
| ROIC | 6.67% |
ROA(3y)5.68%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)12.09%
ROE(5y)9.29%
ROIC(3y)9.43%
ROIC(5y)8.68%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AEO (3.74%) is better than 72.13% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AEO has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of AEO (5.71%) is better than 70.49% of its industry peers.
AEO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 36.99%, AEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.28% of the companies in the same industry.
AEO's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.74% | ||
| GM | 36.99% |
OM growth 3Y-11.47%
OM growth 5Y2.77%
PM growth 3Y-9.62%
PM growth 5Y6.84%
GM growth 3Y-0.46%
GM growth 5Y2.1%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AEO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AEO has more shares outstanding
There is no outstanding debt for AEO. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
2.2 Solvency
AEO has an Altman-Z score of 3.21. This indicates that AEO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.21, AEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.95% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AEO is 1.35, which is an excellent value as it means it would take AEO, only 1.35 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AEO (1.35) is better than 78.69% of its industry peers.
AEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.13. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AEO (0.13) is better than 67.21% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.13 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC9.68%
2.3 Liquidity
AEO has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that AEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AEO has a Current ratio of 1.62. This is in the better half of the industry: AEO outperforms 68.85% of its industry peers.
AEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a bad value and indicates that AEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 0.71, AEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.11% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AEO have decreased strongly by -35.52% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, AEO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 3.41% on average per year.
The Revenue has decreased by -2.73% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, AEO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.34% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-35.52%
EPS 3Y-7.2%
EPS 5Y3.41%
EPS Q2Q%15.38%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.73%
Revenue growth 3Y2.07%
Revenue growth 5Y4.34%
Sales Q2Q%-0.57%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AEO will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.66% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.24% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-35.05%
EPS Next 2Y-10.44%
EPS Next 3Y-4.66%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-0.22%
Revenue Next 2Y0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y1.24%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.50, AEO is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AEO is cheaper than 79.51% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.76.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.19, the valuation of AEO can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AEO is valued a bit cheaper than 77.05% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.18, AEO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.19 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AEO is cheaper than 85.25% of the companies in the same industry.
76.23% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AEO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.71 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AEO's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.66% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.25
EPS Next 2Y-10.44%
EPS Next 3Y-4.66%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.81%, AEO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AEO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 5.56. AEO pays more dividend than 86.89% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.41, AEO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.81% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AEO decreases each year by -1.76%.
AEO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AEO has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-1.76%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
46.00% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AEO. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The Dividend Rate of AEO has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP46%
EPS Next 2Y-10.44%
EPS Next 3Y-4.66%
17.11
-0.13 (-0.75%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.49%
Inst Owner Change-4.26%
Ins Owners6.95%
Ins Owner Change-1.24%
Market Cap2.90B
Analysts51.11
Price Target15.75 (-7.95%)
Short Float %19.86%
Short Ratio1.91
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.81% |
Yearly Dividend0.5
Dividend Growth(5Y)-1.76%
DP46%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)40.69%
Min EPS beat(2)-33.55%
Max EPS beat(2)114.93%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)22.46%
Min EPS beat(4)-33.55%
Max EPS beat(4)114.93%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)16.61%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)24.95%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)13.42%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.69%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.97%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.69%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.6%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.3%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.73%
PT rev (1m)28.65%
PT rev (3m)32.32%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)39.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)41.56%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.43%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.92%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.91%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.05%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.19 | ||
| P/S | 0.55 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.31 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.07 | ||
| P/B | 1.88 | ||
| P/tB | 2.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.71 |
EPS(TTM)1.18
EY6.9%
EPS(NY)1.4
Fwd EY8.2%
FCF(TTM)0.89
FCFY5.18%
OCF(TTM)2.42
OCFY14.14%
SpS31.1
BVpS9.12
TBVpS7.55
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.25
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.85% | ||
| ROE | 12.76% | ||
| ROCE | 9.18% | ||
| ROIC | 6.67% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.94% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.58% | ||
| OM | 5.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.74% | ||
| GM | 36.99% | ||
| FCFM | 2.85% |
ROA(3y)5.68%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)12.09%
ROE(5y)9.29%
ROIC(3y)9.43%
ROIC(5y)8.68%
ROICexc(3y)11.35%
ROICexc(5y)11.11%
ROICexgc(3y)13.03%
ROICexgc(5y)13.05%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.94%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-18.56%
ROICexcg growth 5Y5.17%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.08%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.41%
OM growth 3Y-11.47%
OM growth 5Y2.77%
PM growth 3Y-9.62%
PM growth 5Y6.84%
GM growth 3Y-0.46%
GM growth 5Y2.1%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.13 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 116.39% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.93% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.19% | ||
| Profit Quality | 76.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.21 |
F-Score5
WACC9.68%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)102.71%
Cap/Depr(5y)104.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.26%
Profit Quality(3y)140.43%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-35.52%
EPS 3Y-7.2%
EPS 5Y3.41%
EPS Q2Q%15.38%
EPS Next Y-35.05%
EPS Next 2Y-10.44%
EPS Next 3Y-4.66%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.73%
Revenue growth 3Y2.07%
Revenue growth 5Y4.34%
Sales Q2Q%-0.57%
Revenue Next Year-0.22%
Revenue Next 2Y0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y1.24%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.65%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.64%
EBIT growth 5Y7.23%
EBIT Next Year9.52%
EBIT Next 3Y9.16%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-64.94%
FCF growth 3Y53.76%
FCF growth 5Y3.73%
OCF growth 1Y-37.86%
OCF growth 3Y16.22%
OCF growth 5Y2.8%