AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AEO - US02553E1064 - Common Stock
16.79 USD
-0.09 (-0.53%)
16.75 USD
-0.04 (-0.24%)
AEO gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of AEO get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. AEO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AEO was profitable.
AEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AEO 4 years were profitable.
AEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AEO has a Return On Assets of 4.85%. This is in the better half of the industry: AEO outperforms 67.77% of its industry peers.
AEO's Return On Equity of 12.76% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AEO outperforms 70.25% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 6.67%, AEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.46% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AEO is below the industry average of 11.81%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.85% | ||
| ROE | 12.76% | ||
| ROIC | 6.67% |
ROA(3y)5.68%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)12.09%
ROE(5y)9.29%
ROIC(3y)9.43%
ROIC(5y)8.68%
1.3 Margins
AEO has a Profit Margin of 3.74%. This is in the better half of the industry: AEO outperforms 71.90% of its industry peers.
AEO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AEO's Operating Margin of 5.71% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AEO outperforms 69.42% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AEO has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of AEO (36.99%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AEO has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.74% | ||
| GM | 36.99% |
OM growth 3Y-11.47%
OM growth 5Y2.77%
PM growth 3Y-9.62%
PM growth 5Y6.84%
GM growth 3Y-0.46%
GM growth 5Y2.1%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AEO is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AEO has less shares outstanding
AEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AEO has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.20 indicates that AEO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
AEO has a Altman-Z score of 3.20. This is in the better half of the industry: AEO outperforms 73.55% of its industry peers.
AEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.35. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AEO's Debt to FCF ratio of 1.35 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AEO outperforms 79.34% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.13 indicates that AEO is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AEO (0.13) is better than 70.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.13 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.2 |
ROIC/WACC0.72
WACC9.29%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that AEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AEO (1.62) is better than 70.25% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.71 indicates that AEO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AEO has a Quick ratio of 0.71. This is in the better half of the industry: AEO outperforms 61.98% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AEO have decreased strongly by -35.52% in the last year.
AEO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 3.41% yearly.
AEO shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -2.73%.
AEO shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.34% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-35.52%
EPS 3Y-7.2%
EPS 5Y3.41%
EPS Q2Q%15.38%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.73%
Revenue growth 3Y2.07%
Revenue growth 5Y4.34%
Sales Q2Q%-0.57%
3.2 Future
AEO is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -4.11% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.71% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-35.13%
EPS Next 2Y-10.12%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.13%
Revenue Next 2Y1%
Revenue Next 3Y1.71%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 14.23, which indicates a correct valuation of AEO.
AEO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AEO is cheaper than 76.03% of the companies in the same industry.
AEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.83.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.88 indicates a reasonable valuation of AEO.
AEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AEO is cheaper than 77.69% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.88, AEO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.88 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AEO is cheaper than 83.47% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AEO is cheaper than 74.38% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.59 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
AEO's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.11% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.17
EPS Next 2Y-10.12%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AEO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.02%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.23, AEO pays a better dividend. On top of this AEO pays more dividend than 89.26% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AEO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.30.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.02% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AEO decreases each year by -1.76%.
AEO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AEO has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-1.76%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
AEO pays out 46.00% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
AEO's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP46%
EPS Next 2Y-10.12%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
16.79
-0.09 (-0.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.49%
Inst Owner Change-0.77%
Ins Owners6.95%
Ins Owner Change-2.22%
Market Cap2.84B
Revenue(TTM)5.27B
Net Income(TTM)197.10M
Analysts51.11
Price Target16.64 (-0.89%)
Short Float %16.65%
Short Ratio2.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.02% |
Yearly Dividend0.5
Dividend Growth(5Y)-1.76%
DP46%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)41.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-31.49%
Max EPS beat(2)114.93%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)22.97%
Min EPS beat(4)-31.49%
Max EPS beat(4)114.93%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)16.86%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)25.13%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)13.55%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.69%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.97%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.69%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.6%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.3%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.73%
PT rev (1m)5.67%
PT rev (3m)39.82%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.28%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.89%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.12%
EPS NY rev (3m)41.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.6%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.54%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.88 | ||
| P/S | 0.54 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.95 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.94 | ||
| P/B | 1.84 | ||
| P/tB | 2.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.59 |
EPS(TTM)1.18
EY7.03%
EPS(NY)1.41
Fwd EY8.42%
FCF(TTM)0.89
FCFY5.28%
OCF(TTM)2.42
OCFY14.41%
SpS31.1
BVpS9.12
TBVpS7.55
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.17
Graham Number15.56
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.85% | ||
| ROE | 12.76% | ||
| ROCE | 9.18% | ||
| ROIC | 6.67% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.94% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.58% | ||
| OM | 5.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.74% | ||
| GM | 36.99% | ||
| FCFM | 2.85% |
ROA(3y)5.68%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)12.09%
ROE(5y)9.29%
ROIC(3y)9.43%
ROIC(5y)8.68%
ROICexc(3y)11.35%
ROICexc(5y)11.11%
ROICexgc(3y)13.03%
ROICexgc(5y)13.05%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-18.56%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.17%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.08%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.41%
OM growth 3Y-11.47%
OM growth 5Y2.77%
PM growth 3Y-9.62%
PM growth 5Y6.84%
GM growth 3Y-0.46%
GM growth 5Y2.1%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.13 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 116.39% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.93% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.19% | ||
| Profit Quality | 76.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.2 |
F-Score5
WACC9.29%
ROIC/WACC0.72
Cap/Depr(3y)102.71%
Cap/Depr(5y)104.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.26%
Profit Quality(3y)140.43%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-35.52%
EPS 3Y-7.2%
EPS 5Y3.41%
EPS Q2Q%15.38%
EPS Next Y-35.13%
EPS Next 2Y-10.12%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.73%
Revenue growth 3Y2.07%
Revenue growth 5Y4.34%
Sales Q2Q%-0.57%
Revenue Next Year0.13%
Revenue Next 2Y1%
Revenue Next 3Y1.71%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.65%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.64%
EBIT growth 5Y7.23%
EBIT Next Year9.52%
EBIT Next 3Y8.45%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-64.94%
FCF growth 3Y53.76%
FCF growth 5Y3.73%
OCF growth 1Y-37.86%
OCF growth 3Y16.22%
OCF growth 5Y2.8%
AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS / AEO FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) stock?
AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AEO stock?
The financial health rating of AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) is 6 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AEO stock?
The dividend rating of AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS (AEO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 46%.