ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
32.72 USD
-0.14 (-0.43%)
32.85 USD
+0.13 (+0.4%)
Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AA's Return On Assets of 6.70% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 82.05% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 16.37%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.10% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (10.81%) is better than 83.97% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a better Profit Margin (7.86%) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Operating Margin of 12.56% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 67.31% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
AA has a Gross Margin (20.19%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.89. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.89, AA is doing worse than 69.23% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.57. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.57 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.57, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.51% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AA has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.42. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 72.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
ROIC/WACC1.15
WACC9.4%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.65. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Current ratio (1.65) than 66.03% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.97 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AA (0.97) is worse than 71.79% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 276.60%, which is quite impressive.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 19.39%.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y240.46%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 7.88 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 99.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.41. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.88, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 72.44% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.88), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.88 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 94.87% of the companies in the same industry.
90.38% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.56 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.32 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 47.06% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.24%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.51, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.24, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 10.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.56%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
32.72
-0.14 (-0.43%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.78%
Inst Owner Change4.11%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.37%
Market Cap8.47B
Analysts77.14
Price Target34.95 (6.82%)
Short Float %4.44%
Short Ratio1.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)26.69%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.44%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.74%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.21%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.9%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.49%
PT rev (1m)0.29%
PT rev (3m)0.58%
EPS NQ rev (1m)7.11%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-56.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.85%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-11.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.87%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.88 | ||
| P/S | 0.66 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.56 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.56 | ||
| P/B | 1.38 | ||
| P/tB | 1.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.32 |
EPS(TTM)4.15
EY12.68%
EPS(NY)2.54
Fwd EY7.77%
FCF(TTM)2.25
FCFY6.87%
OCF(TTM)4.33
OCFY13.23%
SpS49.35
BVpS23.7
TBVpS23.01
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROCE | 13.7% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% | ||
| FCFM | 4.56% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.08% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.22% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.4% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
F-Score8
WACC9.4%
ROIC/WACC1.15
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
EPS Next Y240.46%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y2240%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year101.18%
EBIT Next 3Y28.26%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y238.24%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y1375%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%