ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
31.8 USD
-0.15 (-0.47%)
31.88 USD
+0.08 (+0.25%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 155 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.70%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.29% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Return On Equity of 16.37% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 88.39% of its industry peers.
AA's Return On Invested Capital of 10.81% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 82.58% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a better Profit Margin (7.86%) than 74.19% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.56%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.45% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 20.19%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.71% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.87. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.87) is worse than 63.87% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.57, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.57 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA (4.57) is better than 70.32% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AA's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.42 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 72.26% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.87 |
ROIC/WACC1.09
WACC9.96%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.65. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA's Current ratio of 1.65 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 67.10% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.97, AA is not doing good in the industry: 72.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 276.60% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 19.39% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y240.46%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 7.66, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of AA.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 99.35% of the companies in the same industry.
AA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.14, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
AA is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.52.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.97% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.80, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.52 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 94.84% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.68% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.21 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 47.06% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.36%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.59, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.36% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 10.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.56%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
31.8
-0.15 (-0.47%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.78%
Inst Owner Change4.11%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.37%
Market Cap8.23B
Analysts77.14
Price Target34.84 (9.56%)
Short Float %6.26%
Short Ratio2.67
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.36% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)26.69%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.44%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.74%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.21%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.9%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.49%
PT rev (1m)-2.65%
PT rev (3m)0.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)7.11%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-56.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.85%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-11.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.87%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.52 | ||
| P/S | 0.64 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.15 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/B | 1.34 | ||
| P/tB | 1.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.21 |
EPS(TTM)4.15
EY13.05%
EPS(NY)2.54
Fwd EY7.99%
FCF(TTM)2.25
FCFY7.07%
OCF(TTM)4.33
OCFY13.62%
SpS49.35
BVpS23.7
TBVpS23.01
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROCE | 13.7% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% | ||
| FCFM | 4.56% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.08% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.22% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.4% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.87 |
F-Score8
WACC9.96%
ROIC/WACC1.09
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
EPS Next Y240.46%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y2240%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year101.18%
EBIT Next 3Y28.26%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y238.24%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y1375%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%