ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
38.79 USD
+1.47 (+3.94%)
38.79 USD
0 (0%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on AA.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a better Return On Assets (7.18%) than 81.82% of its industry peers.
AA has a Return On Equity of 18.06%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AA outperforms 91.56% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.70%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a better Profit Margin (8.91%) than 75.32% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Operating Margin of 10.77% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 66.88% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 18.41%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.79% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AA has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.82. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.82) is worse than 70.13% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.97, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.08% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.41, AA is doing worse than 74.03% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.82 |
ROIC/WACC0.97
WACC8.94%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a Current ratio of 1.56. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 70.78% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.91, AA is not doing good in the industry: 75.97% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 656.25% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AA shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the last year.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AA is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.90.
98.05% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.28), we can say AA is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.81, which indicates a very decent valuation of AA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 74.68% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 33.61, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.81 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 87.01% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.55 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.09%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.63, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
38.79
+1.47 (+3.94%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change-1.96%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.35%
Market Cap10.04B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target40.37 (4.07%)
Short Float %4.43%
Short Ratio1.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)13.86%
PT rev (3m)12.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)62.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.42%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.46%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.64%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.81 | ||
| P/S | 0.78 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.45 | ||
| P/B | 1.58 | ||
| P/tB | 1.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.55 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY9.18%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY8.46%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY5.17%
OCF(TTM)4.11
OCFY10.58%
SpS49.7
BVpS24.51
TBVpS23.82
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.31
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.82 |
F-Score7
WACC8.94%
ROIC/WACC0.97
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 10.9 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.58.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 266.36% in the next year.