ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AA - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0138721065 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AA's Return On Assets of 5.90% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 79.22% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.79%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 11.01%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.66% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 14.79% | ||
| ROIC | 11.01% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AA (6.79%) is better than 74.03% of its industry peers.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.74%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
The Gross Margin of AA (20.43%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.79% | ||
| GM | 20.43% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is still creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.84. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a Altman-Z score (1.84) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 7.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take AA, 7.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AA's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 65.58% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.45 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.45, AA is doing worse than 75.32% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.84 |
ROIC/WACC1.25
WACC8.78%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.71 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Current ratio (1.71) than 64.29% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.00, AA is doing worse than 66.23% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 237.06% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
AA shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 20.85%.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)237.06%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%365.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.85%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%29.63%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.06% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.91% yearly.
EPS Next Y274.73%
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue Next Year5.43%
Revenue Next 2Y2.12%
Revenue Next 3Y2.73%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 7.26, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of AA.
98.70% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
AA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.98, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.80, which indicates a very decent valuation of AA.
75.97% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.49, AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 94.81% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 79.87% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 21.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.93 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 58.47% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.34%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.98.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.34, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.34% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
11.28% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP11.28%
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
28.47
-1.46 (-4.88%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.65%
Inst Owner Change1.62%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change1.55%
Market Cap7.37B
Analysts79
Price Target34.74 (22.02%)
Short Float %3.97%
Short Ratio1.47
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.34% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP11.28%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.56%
Min EPS beat(2)3.63%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)50.69%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)28.27%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-9.6%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.38%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.01%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.37%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.75%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.29%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-30.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-27.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-7.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.58 | ||
| P/FCF | 21.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.01 | ||
| P/B | 1.27 | ||
| P/tB | 1.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.93 |
EPS(TTM)3.92
EY13.77%
EPS(NY)2.91
Fwd EY10.21%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY4.72%
OCF(TTM)3.55
OCFY12.48%
SpS48.92
BVpS22.46
TBVpS21.77
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 14.79% | ||
| ROCE | 13.99% | ||
| ROIC | 11.01% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.5% | ||
| OM | 12.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.79% | ||
| GM | 20.43% | ||
| FCFM | 2.75% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.17 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.94% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.52% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 40.47% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.84 |
F-Score7
WACC8.78%
ROIC/WACC1.25
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)237.06%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%365.43%
EPS Next Y274.73%
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.85%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%29.63%
Revenue Next Year5.43%
Revenue Next 2Y2.12%
Revenue Next 3Y2.73%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
EBIT growth 1Y758.78%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year109.42%
EBIT Next 3Y34.7%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y155.88%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y47.2%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%