ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AA - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0138721065 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 157 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. AA has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AA scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AA's Return On Assets of 6.70% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 81.53% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 16.37%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.17% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.83%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.99% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Profit Margin of 7.86%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 77.07% of its industry peers.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.56%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.52% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 20.19%, AA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.83 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.83) is worse than 61.78% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.55. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.55 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.55, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.61% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.42) is worse than 71.97% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
ROIC/WACC1.16
WACC9.31%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.65. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.65) is worse than 66.88% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AA (0.97) is worse than 68.79% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 276.60% over the past year.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue has grown by 19.39% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.06% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.91% yearly.
EPS Next Y269.47%
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AA is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.14.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 99.36% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.03), we can say AA is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.08 indicates a reasonable valuation of AA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 81.53% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (36.28), we can say AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.14 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.08 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 95.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.17% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 55.41% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.33%.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.93.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.33% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 10.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.56%
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
29.62
+0.5 (+1.72%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.65%
Inst Owner Change0.41%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.37%
Market Cap7.67B
Analysts79
Price Target35.79 (20.83%)
Short Float %5.66%
Short Ratio2.35
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.33% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)26.69%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.44%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.74%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.21%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.9%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.49%
PT rev (1m)3.02%
PT rev (3m)4.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)27.74%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-59.42%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.4%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.73%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-11.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.87%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.64%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.14 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.08 | ||
| P/S | 0.6 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.84 | ||
| P/B | 1.25 | ||
| P/tB | 1.25 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
EPS(TTM)4.15
EY14.01%
EPS(NY)2.94
Fwd EY9.92%
FCF(TTM)2.25
FCFY7.59%
OCF(TTM)4.33
OCFY14.62%
SpS49.35
BVpS23.7
TBVpS23.7
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROCE | 13.7% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.43% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.43% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% | ||
| FCFM | 4.56% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.55 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.08% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.22% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.4% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
F-Score8
WACC9.31%
ROIC/WACC1.16
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
EPS Next Y269.47%
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
EBIT growth 1Y2240%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year109.42%
EBIT Next 3Y34.7%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y238.24%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y1375%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%