ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
53.63 USD
-0.02 (-0.04%)
53.61 USD
-0.02 (-0.04%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on AA.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a better Return On Assets (7.18%) than 78.85% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AA (18.06%) is better than 90.38% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (8.70%) is better than 73.72% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Profit Margin of 8.91%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA has a better Operating Margin (10.77%) than 64.74% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 18.41%, AA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.85% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.06 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a worse Altman-Z score (2.06) than 70.51% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AA has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 67.31% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
AA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.41) than 72.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.06 |
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC10.15%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.56) is worse than 72.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.91, AA is doing worse than 75.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.06, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
92.95% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.59, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.91, AA is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 76.28% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 24.03.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 89.74% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 80.13% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 72.16% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.83%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.02, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.88, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
53.63
-0.02 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.3%
Inst Owner Change22.92%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.01%
Market Cap13.89B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target45.43 (-15.29%)
Short Float %2.69%
Short Ratio1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)12.53%
PT rev (3m)30%
EPS NQ rev (1m)10.46%
EPS NQ rev (3m)83.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.95%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.66%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.24%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.36%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.91 | ||
| P/S | 1.08 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.76 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.06 | ||
| P/B | 2.19 | ||
| P/tB | 2.25 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.47 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY6.64%
EPS(NY)4.15
Fwd EY7.74%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY3.74%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY7.65%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.06 |
F-Score7
WACC10.15%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year107.52%
EBIT Next 3Y34.64%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 15.06 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.19.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 288.16% in the next year.