ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
35.02 USD
-1.98 (-5.35%)
34.68 USD
-0.34 (-0.97%)
Taking everything into account, AA scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AA was compared to 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. AA has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on AA.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.70%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 82.05% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a better Return On Equity (16.37%) than 89.10% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (10.81%) is better than 84.62% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA's Profit Margin of 7.86% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
The Operating Margin of AA (12.56%) is better than 67.31% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin (20.19%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.96. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a worse Altman-Z score (1.96) than 70.51% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.57. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.57 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.57, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.15% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AA's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.42 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 73.72% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC9.06%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.65. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.65, AA is not doing good in the industry: 67.95% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA's Quick ratio of 0.97 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 73.08% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 276.60%, which is quite impressive.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 19.39%.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.17% on average per year.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y235.21%
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year6.75%
Revenue Next 2Y3.11%
Revenue Next 3Y3.04%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.44, which indicates a very decent valuation of AA.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 99.36% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.02), we can say AA is valued rather cheaply.
AA is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.82.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.44% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.57.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.82 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 94.87% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 89.74% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.82 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 47.12% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.15%.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.45.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.15% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 10.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.56%
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
35.02
-1.98 (-5.35%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.35%
Market Cap9.07B
Analysts78.1
Price Target35.46 (1.26%)
Short Float %4.05%
Short Ratio1.81
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.15% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)26.69%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.44%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.74%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.21%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.9%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.49%
PT rev (1m)1.76%
PT rev (3m)2.05%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-31.73%
EPS NQ rev (3m)40.81%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.54%
EPS NY rev (3m)-10.55%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.6%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.46%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.38%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.25%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.82 | ||
| P/S | 0.71 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.58 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.09 | ||
| P/B | 1.48 | ||
| P/tB | 1.52 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.82 |
EPS(TTM)4.15
EY11.85%
EPS(NY)2.73
Fwd EY7.8%
FCF(TTM)2.25
FCFY6.42%
OCF(TTM)4.33
OCFY12.36%
SpS49.35
BVpS23.7
TBVpS23.01
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROCE | 13.7% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% | ||
| FCFM | 4.56% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.08% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.22% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.4% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
F-Score8
WACC9.06%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
EPS Next Y235.21%
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
Revenue Next Year6.75%
Revenue Next 2Y3.11%
Revenue Next 3Y3.04%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y2240%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y238.24%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y1375%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%