ALCOA CORP (AA)
US0138721065 - Common Stock
Taking everything into account, AA scores 2 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AA was compared to 157 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AA have multiple concerns. AA has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
AA had negative earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -2.01%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 44.59% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Return On Equity of -5.56%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 61.15% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (2.07%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.01% | ||
| ROE | -5.56% | ||
| ROIC | 2.07% |
ROA(3y)-0.86%
ROA(5y)-2.28%
ROE(3y)-2.85%
ROE(5y)-8.21%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Operating Margin (2.64%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 11.35%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.31% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 11.35% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-20.99%
GM growth 5Y-22.49%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AA has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.49, we must say that AA is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AA has a Altman-Z score of 1.49. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 67.52% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.47. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.47, AA is not doing good in the industry: 75.80% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.49 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC9.32%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.41. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a Current ratio of 1.41. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 76.43% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.80 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Quick ratio (0.80) than 80.89% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 73.55% over the past year.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 3.63%.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -4.67% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)73.55%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%150%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.63%
Revenue growth 3Y4.35%
Revenue growth 5Y-4.67%
Sales Q2Q%11.61%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 49.86% on average per year.
AA is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.52% yearly.
EPS Next Y129.08%
EPS Next 2Y80.42%
EPS Next 3Y49.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.81%
Revenue Next 2Y4.02%
Revenue Next 3Y2.52%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AA reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.73, AA is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.06% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.63, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.73 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 61.15% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 49.86% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y80.42%
EPS Next 3Y49.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.96%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.78.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.96, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.18.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
AA has decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AA are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AA will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-27.74%
EPS Next 2Y80.42%
EPS Next 3Y49.86%
ALCOA CORP
NYSE:AA (10/22/2024, 1:28:01 PM)
42.14
+0.62 (+1.49%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap10.89B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
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Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
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Min Revenue beat(4)
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Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
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Revenue beat(16)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.73 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.01% | ||
| ROE | -5.56% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 2.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 11.35% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.76
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)73.55%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y129.08%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.63%
Revenue growth 3Y4.35%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y