ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
36.7 USD
+0.96 (+2.69%)
36.69 USD
-0.01 (-0.03%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. AA has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.18%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.06%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.56% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.70%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.92% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 8.91%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.32% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA has a better Operating Margin (10.77%) than 66.88% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
The Gross Margin of AA (18.41%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.77. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.77) is worse than 70.13% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AA has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.41) than 74.03% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.95
WACC9.15%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AA's Current ratio of 1.56 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 70.78% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.91, AA is doing worse than 75.97% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 656.25% over the past year.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.94%.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y211.25%
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y3.95%
Revenue Next 3Y3.67%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.31, which indicates a very decent valuation of AA.
98.05% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.67), we can say AA is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 12.91, which indicates a correct valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.43% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 31.86. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.31 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 87.01% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 49.47% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.09%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.64, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.09, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
9.25% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
36.7
+0.96 (+2.69%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change-1.63%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.35%
Market Cap9.50B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.1
Price Target40.37 (10%)
Short Float %4.43%
Short Ratio1.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)15.53%
PT rev (3m)12.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)62.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.15%
EPS NY rev (3m)-15.76%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.78%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.67%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.64%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.84%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.31 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.91 | ||
| P/S | 0.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.31 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.94 | ||
| P/B | 1.5 | ||
| P/tB | 1.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.16 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY9.7%
EPS(NY)2.84
Fwd EY7.75%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY5.46%
OCF(TTM)4.11
OCFY11.19%
SpS49.7
BVpS24.51
TBVpS24.51
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.31
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.87% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.87% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.77 |
F-Score7
WACC9.15%
ROIC/WACC0.95
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y211.25%
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y3.95%
Revenue Next 3Y3.67%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 10.31 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.5.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 211.25% in the next year.