ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
44.64 USD
+1.17 (+2.69%)
44.4 USD
-0.24 (-0.54%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 155 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a better Return On Assets (7.18%) than 79.35% of its industry peers.
AA has a Return On Equity of 18.06%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AA outperforms 90.32% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.70%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 74.19% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 8.91%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 74.19% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of AA (10.77%) is better than 65.16% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 18.41%, AA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.84% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.92. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA's Altman-Z score of 1.92 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 70.97% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AA has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.97) than 67.74% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.41) is worse than 72.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.85
WACC10.28%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.56, AA is doing worse than 72.26% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.91, AA is doing worse than 75.48% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the past year. This is quite good.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y268.72%
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.53%
Revenue Next 2Y6.16%
Revenue Next 3Y4.52%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.54, which indicates a correct valuation of AA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 96.13% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.59. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.54, AA is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.48% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.80. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 92.26% of the companies in the same industry.
87.10% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.91%, which is pretty low.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.54.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.91, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
9.25% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
44.64
+1.17 (+2.69%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.3%
Inst Owner Change22.92%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.01%
Market Cap11.56B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target42.07 (-5.76%)
Short Float %2.56%
Short Ratio0.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)4.21%
PT rev (3m)20.74%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)69.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.64%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.65%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.9 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.27 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.87 | ||
| P/B | 1.82 | ||
| P/tB | 1.87 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.31 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY7.97%
EPS(NY)3.56
Fwd EY7.97%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY4.49%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY9.2%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score7
WACC10.28%
ROIC/WACC0.85
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y268.72%
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.53%
Revenue Next 2Y6.16%
Revenue Next 3Y4.52%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year107.52%
EBIT Next 3Y34.64%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 12.54 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.82.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 268.72% in the next year.