ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AA - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0138721065 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. AA has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AA scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 5.90%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 79.22% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Return On Equity of 14.79% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 87.01% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 11.01%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.66% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 14.79% | ||
| ROIC | 11.01% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA's Profit Margin of 6.79% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 74.03% of its industry peers.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA's Operating Margin of 12.74% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 20.43%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.44% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.79% | ||
| GM | 20.43% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.89 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.89, AA is not doing good in the industry: 62.34% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.74. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AA would need 7.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 7.74, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.58% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.45 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.45, AA is not doing good in the industry: 74.68% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
ROIC/WACC1.13
WACC9.72%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.71. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.71) is worse than 64.94% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a Quick ratio of 1.00. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 66.88% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 237.06% over the past year.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
AA shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 20.85%.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)237.06%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%365.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.85%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%29.63%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.06% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.91% on average per year.
EPS Next Y269.47%
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue Next Year6.54%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y3.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.60, the valuation of AA can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 98.70% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.52, AA is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.13, which indicates a very decent valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.62% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 35.58, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 94.16% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 79.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.16 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.23 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 55.41% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.27%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.90.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.27% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
11.28% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP11.28%
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
29.79
-1.3 (-4.18%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.65%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change1.54%
Market Cap7.71B
Analysts79
Price Target34.74 (16.62%)
Short Float %5.61%
Short Ratio2.24
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.27% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP11.28%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.56%
Min EPS beat(2)3.63%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)50.69%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)28.27%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-9.6%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.38%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.01%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.37%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.75%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.29%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-29.19%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-42.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-50.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.4%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.7%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-11.36%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.06%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.75%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.61 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.16 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.38 | ||
| P/B | 1.33 | ||
| P/tB | 1.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.23 |
EPS(TTM)3.92
EY13.16%
EPS(NY)2.94
Fwd EY9.87%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY4.51%
OCF(TTM)3.55
OCFY11.93%
SpS48.92
BVpS22.46
TBVpS21.77
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 14.79% | ||
| ROCE | 13.99% | ||
| ROIC | 11.01% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.5% | ||
| OM | 12.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.79% | ||
| GM | 20.43% | ||
| FCFM | 2.75% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.17 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.94% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.52% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 40.47% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
F-Score7
WACC9.72%
ROIC/WACC1.13
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)237.06%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%365.43%
EPS Next Y269.47%
EPS Next 2Y74.99%
EPS Next 3Y55.41%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.85%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%29.63%
Revenue Next Year6.54%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y3.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
EBIT growth 1Y758.78%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year109.42%
EBIT Next 3Y34.7%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y155.88%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y47.2%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%