Market Monitor Trends and Breadth July 10 BMO

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – July 09, 2025 (After Market Close)

A new high for the QQQ and IWM on its way to its final and highest resistance level.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $600 to $610
• Next Resistance at /
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Gap Up - Up Day

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $540
• Next Resistance at /
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Gap Up - Up Day

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $210
• Next Resistance at $215 to $220
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Gap Up - Up Day

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – July 09, 2025 (After Market Close)

The bulls kept the upper hand yesterday, with a firm follow-through across key market breadth indicators that signaled improving internals.

After a shaky start to the week on July 7, breadth metrics on July 8 already hinted at a potential rebound and the data from July 9 has now confirmed it.

Let’s break down what’s really happening under the surface and why this is a win for the bulls, even if the longer-term signals still demand some skepticism...

Advancers Take Control Again

On July 9, 66.8% of all tracked stocks posted gains, a clear bullish breadth day that follows up on the modestly positive breadth from July 8 (59.4%).

Importantly, we also saw a 6.0% share of stocks gaining more than 4%, which confirms some risk appetite returning to the market. While that’s slightly below the July 8 figure (6.1%), it’s still solid and well above the bearish 3% we saw on July 7.

Decliners shrank to 30.5%, and only 1.5% of stocks dropped more than 4%, a strong improvement from the July 7 washout (6.6%).

This 3-day breadth trajectory - from bearish breakdown (July 7) to stabilization (July 8) and now confirmation (July 9) - paints a short-term bullish scenario. But let’s not pop the champagne yet.

Price Above Moving Averages – Strong Push Across the Board

Looking at how many stocks are trading above key moving averages, we see a clear uptick:

All four metrics rose again, a continuation of the trend that began July 8. Especially notable is the climb in 200-day participation, now pushing back above 54%, which indicates growing medium-term support.

New Highs Rising, New Lows Shrinking

The number of new highs (NH) jumped to 4.3% of stocks from 2.6% on July 8 and just 3.1% on July 7, another confirming signal of growing strength. New lows (NL) stayed ultra-low at just 0.6%, which keeps risk in check.

This steady improvement in NH/NL ratios adds confidence that the market’s rally isn’t just noise.

Short-Term vs. Medium-Term Breadth — Slight Divergence

It clearly shows how short-term momentum (1-week breadth) dipped recently, while medium-term strength (3-month breadth) remained elevated, highlighting the current disconnect in market behavior.

Week-over-Week Momentum Builds

Breadth over the past five trading days is also pointing in the bulls’ favor:

• Advance Week: 67% (up from 64.7%)

• Decline Week: 31.8% (down from 34.1%)

After a concerning start to the week, this week's breadth is shifting back to favoring the buyers. That said, a single strong day (July 9) is largely responsible for the recovery, so let’s watch closely if this trend continues through the end of the week.

Conclusion: The Bounce is Real, But Stay Nimble

The data from July 9 marks a legitimate recovery in market breadth, especially after the washout on July 7. The key moving average metrics, new highs, and multi-day advance-decline ratios all point to growing market strength.

However, given that headline risk remains (trade tariffs, speculation about interest rates, valuations of technology companies), I will be keeping a close eye on the broader picture over the next two sessions to see whether this recovery translates into an actual constructive upward trend.

Let’s call it what it is: constructive, but not yet convincing.

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Kristoff - Co-founder, ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor News, July 10